(11-09-2013 01:58 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 01:49 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 01:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 01:09 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 12:18 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  Statistically they have no more than one chance in five of being left out and that's before the aggregated conference OOC games are factored into the mix. I don't know who plays the worst OOC slate on a yearly basis, but it's never going to be the ACC or SEC considering they usually play a minimum of 5 games against each other FSU/UF, GT/UGA, SC/Clemson, UK/Louisville, Wake/Vandy (ending) and Clemson, GT, Wake Forest, Miami, NC State, etc., usually play an SEC team enough to make the 5th. The ACC also gets whatever boost ND is offering that particular year.

That means it's the P12/B12/B10 and in that mix, I would say it usually pretty even regarding OOC games. So if you figure they are the ones splitting the chance of being undefeated and being left out their chances of being undefeated and left out is no more than 33%. One in three.

Essentially you are to the point where it's not going to happen but perhaps once a decade, if then.

Doesn't matter. You are not addressing the point at hand, you are just defining percentages and quite frankly your defining is just at hypothesis stage, it surely is no scientific law that it must happen such a way. Past happenings can provide some guidance as to what could happen in the future but they do not define what will happen in the future.

What is fact is that the stronger a conference becomes across the board, the harder it is for a school to escape the conference schedule with an undefeated season. I doubt anyone here argues that with the inclusion of A&M and with the surprise success of Missouri that the SEC does not arguably have the hardest across the board competition in college football.

Fans may think that is great but it can backfire on the conference in terms of what really matters to the administrators in charge.

I would say that right now, the way things are going, the SEC has the least likely chance in the future of having a team go undefeated. That makes your oversimplified "1 out of 5 chance" theory defunct.

Yes, and we have so many years where 5 teams are undefeated

The voters will take the actual strength of the conference into account. I'm not worried about the bitching and moaning about team number 5. When the playoffs expand to 8, I will not worry about team 9. Ohio State plays the worst schedule compared to Bama, FSU, and Baylor this year, they will reap the fruit of that crappy schedule.

Whether it is a 1 loss team being shut out of the process by undefeated teams or if it is a 2 loss team being shut out of the process by a combination of undefeated and one loss teams, the theory is the same. The conference with the best across the board talent and teams is going to have the hardest time having it's "top" team of the year keep up with schools from other conferences when it comes to having the best record.

That is the premise of what I am saying and it seems to be going over your head as you struggle with the details of it rather than seeing the bigger picture of what I am illustrating.

But a much tougher SEC with all it's parity will make for an excellent Strength of Schedule argument to the voting panel.

I agree, but will that be enough? You have to admit that it may not.

(11-09-2013 12:44 PM)goofus Wrote:  And if FSU still had to play Clemson and Miami, you would talk about how tough their schedule is remaining.

No i wouldn't. Zero respect for Miami, just a little for Clemson.

I don't see how anyone who has seen FSU play this year think they aren't one of the best teams in the country regardless of conference affiliation. Going into Clemson an winning by 37 is still the best win of any team this season.

(11-09-2013 02:29 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  I don't see how anyone who has seen FSU play this year think they aren't one of the best teams in the country regardless of conference affiliation. Going into Clemson an winning by 37 is still the best win of any team this season.

I have stated earlier this is the best FSU team I have seen in 20-25 years - they are that damn good. They could have beaten us 100-0.

I'd like to see FSU and Baylor play in the BCS Championship. That would be a very interesting game.

I don't really care who plays but I don't think an FSU and Ohio game would be the most exciting matchup.

As a Big Ten leaning guy, I want Alabama vs Florida State.

Alabama has the Dynasty going and I think FSU is the team that can take them down.

(11-09-2013 03:41 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  As a Big Ten leaning guy, I want Alabama vs Florida State.

Alabama has the Dynasty going and I think FSU is the team that can take them down.

THIS.

The SEC has had few teams that could challenge them in the national championship game. FSU may provide the biggest challenge they've had since the streak started.

I must be the only CFB fan praying for a NIU-Fresno State championship game.

(11-09-2013 05:16 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  I must be the only CFB fan praying for a NIU-Fresno State championship game.

You probably are. That would be a waste of a NC.

(11-09-2013 05:16 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  I must be the only CFB fan praying for a NIU-Fresno State championship game.

The only way that happens is if the rest of the world is destroyed by massive flooding, earthquakes, fire, and asteroids, that somehow miss Fresno and Chicago. IMO you're SOL.

(11-09-2013 05:20 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 05:16 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  I must be the only CFB fan praying for a NIU-Fresno State championship game.

The only way that happens is if the rest of the world is destroyed by massive flooding, earthquakes, fire, and asteroids, that somehow miss Fresno and Chicago. IMO you're SOL.

(11-09-2013 09:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I am starting to fear that soft SOS is going to win out: Neither Bama nor Baylor can run the table against tough schedules while FSU and OSU will cake-walk their way to unbeaten seasons, setting up a dreadful BCS title game. Ouch!

Interesting how those top 10 matchups against Clemson and Miami are completely discounted.

Is FSU the only team to beat a top 5 team on the road?

(11-09-2013 03:53 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 03:41 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  As a Big Ten leaning guy, I want Alabama vs Florida State.

Alabama has the Dynasty going and I think FSU is the team that can take them down.

THIS.

The SEC has had few teams that could challenge them in the national championship game. FSU may provide the biggest challenge they've had since the streak started.

Short memory. They've only blown out Ohio St. and Notre Dame and their own LSU. And while Notre Dame earned the right to be in the BCS title game, no one really thought they were the 2nd best team in the country-or third or 4th.

(11-09-2013 05:20 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 05:16 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  I must be the only CFB fan praying for a NIU-Fresno State championship game.

The only way that happens is if the rest of the world is destroyed by massive flooding, earthquakes, fire, and asteroids, that somehow miss Fresno and Chicago. IMO you're SOL.

So, you're saying there's a chance!

(11-09-2013 06:18 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 05:20 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 05:16 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  I must be the only CFB fan praying for a NIU-Fresno State championship game.

The only way that happens is if the rest of the world is destroyed by massive flooding, earthquakes, fire, and asteroids, that somehow miss Fresno and Chicago. IMO you're SOL.

So, you're saying there's a chance!

(11-09-2013 06:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 03:53 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 03:41 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  As a Big Ten leaning guy, I want Alabama vs Florida State.

Alabama has the Dynasty going and I think FSU is the team that can take them down.

THIS.

The SEC has had few teams that could challenge them in the national championship game. FSU may provide the biggest challenge they've had since the streak started.

Short memory. They've only blown out Ohio St. and Notre Dame and their own LSU. And while Notre Dame earned the right to be in the BCS title game, no one really thought they were the 2nd best team in the country-or third or 4th.

Nah. Texas lost fairly handily after McCoy got hurt. Someone just needs to step up and beat them...plain and simple.

(11-09-2013 02:29 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  I don't see how anyone who has seen FSU play this year think they aren't one of the best teams in the country regardless of conference affiliation. Going into Clemson an winning by 37 is still the best win of any team this season.

They do look damn good, on a par with Bowden's 1990s teams. I certainly don't object to them playing for the national title.

Now Ohio State, that's another story.

(11-09-2013 06:18 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 05:20 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 05:16 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  I must be the only CFB fan praying for a NIU-Fresno State championship game.

The only way that happens is if the rest of the world is destroyed by massive flooding, earthquakes, fire, and asteroids, that somehow miss Fresno and Chicago. IMO you're SOL.

So, you're saying there's a chance!

They believe that in the Philippines today. So sad. Spent four years there.

(11-09-2013 07:45 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 06:18 PM)Knightsweat Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 05:20 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-09-2013 05:16 PM)HarmonOliphantOberlanderDevine Wrote:  I must be the only CFB fan praying for a NIU-Fresno State championship game.

The only way that happens is if the rest of the world is destroyed by massive flooding, earthquakes, fire, and asteroids, that somehow miss Fresno and Chicago. IMO you're SOL.

So, you're saying there's a chance!

They believe that in the Philippines today. So sad. Spent four years there.

I spent 5 years there, while in the Navy. My wife's family is from there originally, but moved to California. She still has some family south of Ormoc that we can't get a hold of. Pretty scary stuff.