RE: Can the Big Ten do ANYTHING right?
Assuming the numbers are accurate:
Big10 footprint 103,130,610 (bolstered the addition of Rutgers and the NYC/NJ area, a place college football isn’t exactly the top game in town and has TON of pro competition in all sports)
This footprint also gives them the entire state of NY even though Rutgers is in NJ.
SEC footprint 90,130,610 (bolstered by the addition of Texas A&M)
Now this is just my OPINION which means absolutely nothing…I think the Big10 REAL footprint is overstated because the Maryland/Rutgers addition is not exactly the most hard core rabid fan bases, the type that TRULY commands the undivided attention of an entire state during college FB season.
The Big10 does have The Big10 Network which is huge. But the payouts per team from the network, IN REALITY, is nothing like we see on message boards. People seem to forget FOX owns½ of the network. That doesn’t mean they aren’t getting serious money for members. A true figure is along the lines of around 8 million per school per year. I have a strong feeling the SEC Network is going to be a more lucrative venture long term that then Big 10 Network, but again that’s just my OPINION. At some point these two Networks are going to be competitiors in the states outside of their respectie footprints, there is where a seperation one way or the other could eventually materialize for one or the other....the SEC brand is far better the te Big10 in this respest. I can see pushback fom distributors at some point if asked to carry both whether its basic or premium. But I'm not a TV/Cable executive and don't claim to be (unlike some who act like they know more thaan they really do) so I don't know, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night. I just know people are getting fed up with the cost of cable.
One other advantage the SEC has and is going to be huge with the SECN is the marketing arm of ESPiN tied at the hip with them. This cannot be overstated.....there is a dollar figure/number and I would love to know what it is, as far as what ESPN does for a brand outside of the cotract figures. I don't know the built in equity figure just from being associated with ESPN but it's not small I'm sure, especially for a premium conferece brand.
SEC Footprint 2000/2010 growth rate 15.8% (population increase 11,337,550)
BIG 10 Footprint 2000/2010 growth rate 4.5% (population increase 3,563,662)
That’s a net positive of 7,773,888 in 10 years.
14 states in the entire country had growth rates below 5%, half of them are states in the Big10 footprint for a total of 7
Michigan is the ONLY state in the entire country that saw a loss in population, negative growth rate of 0.6% with a net loss of 54,804
20 states out of 50 saw double digit increases of 10% or more, none not a single one is in the Big10 Footprint, 5 of the 20 are in the SEC footprint
9 out of the 11 states in the SEC footprint saw growth rates of at least 7%
2 out of the 12 states in the Big10 footprint saw growth rates of at least 7% (Minnesota 7.8 and Maryland at 9.0) Maryland hasn’t even played a down and is the fastest growing state in the entire Big10 footprint, in large part due to the expansion of federal government, many of these people are transplants I think but I don’t know that for sure.
Let me tell you why the BIG10 wanted into North Carolina and Virginia:
North Carolina the 10th largest state in the country with a growth rate of 18.5% (2000/2010)
Virginia the 12th largest state in the country with a growth rate of 13.0% (2000/2010)
These rates are sustainable at least for the next 10 years and even when they level off in 15/20 or so they are still going to be above 7%
Some more growth rate numbers:
Texas 20.6%
Florida 17.6%
Georgia 18.3 %
Tennessee 11.5%
Alabama 7.5%
South Carolina 15.3%
New York 2.1%
New Jersey 4.5%
Pennsylvania 3.4%
Ohio 1.6%
Illinois 3.3%
Michigan -.6%
Also, If Florida increases its rate to close to 20% they will pass New York and become the 3rd largest state in the next census. Of course that assume NY stays at under 3%. With the GREAT migration from the NE/Rustbelt to the South it seems almost certain that at the worst Florida passes NY easily within 20 years.
Texas/Florida/Georgia, the anchors of the SEC and all three turn out elite players in staggering numbers. The state of Georgia alone (number three in size and pecking order in terms of recruiting) is a far more fertile recruiting ground than any state in the entire Big10.
It’s true the Big10 has some big state but all are bleeding. The key targeted demo is the ones fleeing in record numbers year after year. Like I said previously the Big10 is fine for now and I the near term but 15/20 plus year out they are facing real challenges.
Heck, you would not believe how many engineering graduates from the Big 10 footprint are moving south to either start or expand their careers. I’ve know a lot of them over the years. And guess what? They stay once they migrate south and they raise their kids. So you just lose another generation and then another and then another.
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