JRsec
Super Moderator

Posts: 44,974
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 13512
I Root For: SEC
Location:
|
RE: Where is the upside to SEC expansion?
(11-05-2025 09:01 PM)bullet Wrote: (11-05-2025 06:36 PM)JRsec Wrote: (11-05-2025 06:12 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: (11-05-2025 06:00 PM)JRsec Wrote: (11-05-2025 05:49 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: I think if we polled the current SEC Presidents anonymously and they each told the truth, there would be some votes for no expansion, some for only 2, and some for 4, but no appetite at all for more than 4. Ofc that could change by 2030, and the specific schools preferred can also change in the coming years.
Sankey has already lined up what he needs to proceed both with realignment and with a potential breakaway. He will proceed according to the largess he has already been granted.
I suspect he has approval to move to 20 in hand and knows which ones to pursue. I see no SEC president that would turn down Duke, North Carolina or Virginia. It is simply in their DNA to want those associations. ESPN will make sure if such moves are made that there is enough revenue to make it possible. I don't know of a single SEC president that would fail to grasp the value to the conference's future in taking Florida State for control of Florida that would be ours with their market added to that of the Gators.
Bryan the practice in the SEC with Slive and now Sankey was to brainstorm priorities and give permissions ahead of time so that the commissioner could act as quickly as possible when the time arrived. I see no reason whatsoever that has changed. In fact, given the length between the OU/UT announcement until now, and knowing that talks in earnest have been conducted with at least one and up to several schools, that any or all of those have already been greenlighted if they choose to seek membership.
The only emergency meeting of the presidents that could be called would be if expanding beyond 20 somehow looked necessary to protect the SEC's market and priorities. I doubt it comes to that, but it is not out of the realm of possibility.
It's hard to imagine the mighty SEC diluting our Brand so much with all 3 of UNC, Duke and UVA at the same time when we just saw the B1G pass on Cal and Stanford in the very recent past. I doubt that our newest members, OUT, would be particularly thrilled about that, as adding those 3 lightweights all at once would materially weaken the SEC's football and likely tv ratings in the long run. Schools like FSU or Clemson already feel like SEC schools, they wouldn't be disruptive at all. UNC all by themselves, while not a football school, has the feel of a better Kentucky if you will. Maybe even UNC + one of those 2, as we've seen these UNC + UVA rumors for a while now, despite all my howling about it being a bad move. But UNC, Duke and UVA all 3 at the same time? No, I don't think that Sankey has unanimity on those 3, or anything close to it, and he's unlikely to get the votes for all 3. I would go so far as to say that even if Sankey has a blank check and can add any 4 schools that he wants, anybody at all, he still wouldn't even consider all 3 of those schools at once. At least not today, when mbb revenues trail FB revenues by such a huge amount.
I don't know if you are being serious or playing an angle with the board, but North Carolina and Virginia are the crown jewels of the ACC. Two largish states in which they are the AAU flagships and both play championship basketball. What has Cal done athletically in recent memory? If you want to compare Stanford to Duke, then okay, they are both AAU academic elites with academic ratings better than most Ivys. The difference is Duke plays championship basketball.
Do you take Duke to land UNC and UVa? Yes! Bryan they bring to the SEC something we haven't had outside of Kentucky who mailed it in under Calipari. Clemson we have. They are called L.S.U., Auburn, Tennessee, and South Carolina. Does Clemson add? Sure. Do they bring a market? Nope. They add to our middle. FSU at least brings dominance in a state of 22 million where they are the #2 to UF's #1 in market penetration. What North Carolina and Virginia do for the SEC is deliver 21 million in markets, add to our academics, and give us a national audience along with Duke in a sport where the SEC is advancing rapidly but it isn't recognized nationally yet. And all 4 play great baseball and have solid softball programs.
They don't harm the SEC in revenue, exposure, primacy in a sport we are not dominating, or in branding. Clemson is the only brand arguably tops in their state, but it's a state of 5 million and South Carolina carries their half. They add less in viewership than Georgia Tech. But like with Auburn and Alabama the fans of those two watch each other's games hoping to see a loss. Clemson's numbers are good because half of them are South Carolina people pulling for the opposition.
I like Clemson, but they aren't in the first 4 of our picks. They are what they are a solid #5 out of the ACC and first in if we don't land Virginia or Duke.
You seriously need to look at all of Miami's numbers. They are substandard in attendance, in revenue generation, and haven't produced the ratings once they lost, which has been typical of the Miami fan base. Do they have a solid pedigree? Yes. And it has solidly vacillated between mediocrity and greatness for decades if you look back all the way to the 30's and bring it forward. Virginia Tech has money issues. N.C. State's okay but they don't bring the Academics or basketball of Duke and they haven't been hyper competitive on the national level in football in a long long time. Phillip Rivers was QB the last time they were halfway relevant.
The markets make North Carolina and Virginia #1 and #2 in consideration. And they pay their way and add about 3.5 million each to SEC payouts. FSU pays its way by delivering the rest of Florida. It doesn't matter what they've done lately. And Duke will be a unanimous pick if they want to come. Not one single president will vote against their academic resume' just like no Big Ten president voted against Stanford, the network partners did. But ESPN loves Duke basketball so I don't see an issue.
If the SEC lands those 4 they will be happy as bugs in a rug, at least one that has not been sprayed. As to the rest of the ACC schools not mentioned they don't fit our profile. Arizona ain't the South and Kansas gets a look because of the needs of Missouri. And man what was Colorado without Deion? The man has two serious health issues. Colorado would be a great destination add, but I'm not seeing it.
Markets is so 2011 thinking.
And you haven't shown how basketball can be monetized in any way that requires expansion. Taking control of tourney revenues doesn't require expansion. And there is a P5 in basketball, not a P2.
Really??? What do you think the Big Ten was adding with U.C.L.A. and U.S.C.? At least Oregon and Washington, you know the ones with the half shares, had actually been winning more than they were losing.
The SEC's goal since 1991 was to dominate the markets of the South. We only lack two of any size, North Carolina and Virginia and we need to consolidate our hold on Florida. It's not rocket science. Add Sankey's stated goal to see the SEC dominant in all sports and emphasis on branding, toss in academics for the presidents and there's your recipe. Duke, UNC, Kentucky and to an extent Virginia will bring national eyes on basketball broadcasts in the winter. You know Bullet the conference wants to make good money in all 4 seasons of the year and not just in the Fall. Late Spring to Summer we dominate Softball and Baseball. Winter has been the weak link in our annual revenue stream. And those folks in Virginia and North Carolina tune in for more than basketball. It's not about winning and losing it's about viewership. And leaving those markets for the Big Ten to take makes no damn sense at all. It only opens up the possibility of further expansion into the South with lesser brands.
They pay for themselves simply by being on the SECN. Added hoops revenue and whatever FSU multiplies the football viewership by will cover the moves and we will profit. Why do you think North Carolina and Clemson paid us a visit in 2021 in July. They already knew where it all was heading, as did ESPN, as did the Big Ten, as did FOX, and with Alston the heat to move was only ramped up.
With the enrollment cliff looming all of the major brands are scrambling if they aren't wearing SEC and Big Ten patches already. It's not about sports per se but about maintaining enrollment by brand association and by being on the tube more than the next guy. So yes Bullet it's about markets when the markets pay their way. It's about brand when branding pays the way, and what it is not about is nearly as much as the folks here think is winning. We all know the brands.
Why do you think the PAC lost 4 of its top 5 brands to the Big Ten and the Big 12 lost it's top 2 brands to the SEC and before that lost a top 4 brand in the Aggies and lost Nebraska to the Big Ten.
Now it's time for the ACC to face the reaping. Who are their top brands? In ESPN's eyes it is North Carolina, Duke, Florida State and Clemson. But ESPN is also interested in keeping large markets, like Virginia and holding their own in Florida which may require switching one who sued to get out of the ACC into the SEC so they can keep control of that market. If only 4 are moved you tell me who gets left out. Most agree the SEC maximizes the value of the current football branding. Add Duke and UNC to Kentucky, toss in Virginia for another reletively recent hoops champion and a major market and secure Florida and there isn't any room left with which to double down in South Carolina.
Now if we go to 22 at some point, sure.
This isn't just about football, at least not for the SEC and ESPN.
|
|