(11-04-2025 09:58 AM)OneSockUp Wrote: (11-03-2025 08:01 PM)JRsec Wrote: It is assumed the SEC's media payouts will be between 72 to 75 million next year. So, for the sake of argument let's call that 72 million. The ACC's media payouts this year were between 42-45 million depending on tourney creds and bowl shares. Therefore, if we just call it 30 million more for the move to the SEC for each school, we are looking at a total overhead cost of 120 million to ESPN. The average ACC/SEC school makes around 10 million in profit from the conference Network give or take a million. If Virginia and North Carolina and Duke are added to the SEC, the ACCN loses nothing and the SECN gets subscription rates for those two states which are charged to the subscriber. ESPN double dips two states of 21 million combined population. They pick up 30 million on subscriptions. The cost of the move is down to 90 million.
Your maths aren't working quite the way they need to.
For backdrop: The SEC just negotiated $5 million per school to add a ninth conference game. That's $80 million that came out of ESPN's pocket.
What you are posting here is a break-even move by the SEC and justifying it by ESPN's best interest. You're talking about a huge shift in the composition of the SEC, so the SEC would need to be compensated accordingly -- not just break even.
(Also, the ACC media payout you cited includes playoff revenue and NCAA Tournament credits which are not included in the projected $72 million media deal for the SEC.)
For each SEC school to make just an additional $5 million, adding four schools would cost ESPN $72 million x 4 four schools = $288 million plus $100 million to get that number up from $72 to $75 million. That's $388 million, and they can only defray $100-120 million of that against their current ACC contract. Subscriber fees won't come close to making up the difference.
Also, how much less would that next media deal be worth when thirty games of inventory include Duke, UNC, or Virginia? Those aren't the
No, I didn't add the 5 million into the equation because frankly the ACC agreed to 9 conference games for a raise as well.
And the math is your issue not mine. ESPN pays the ACC contract and the SEC contract. The difference in what the ACC made this year and what the SEC will make next year is roughly 30 million whether that was 42 - 45 million for the ACC or 72 to 75 million for the SEC. The 5 million more for 9 conference games is roughly a wash as well since both conferences signed up for 9 conference games and more money. 4 x 30 million is 120 million.
Adding Duke and UNC and to a lesser degree Virginia to the SEC's basketball lineup will increase the national audience for that sport as well. The Big Ten with a fat bottom is going to making the same money plus or minus a couple of million. The SEC will have 12 more games with that foursome that add to the national audience numbers for football. They'll have 54 more basketball games that do the same for that revenue sport.
The added academic branding will give the SEC three more AAU members and 3 more increasing its academic standing, and 2 states which combined will be 1 million shy of equaling the adding of another market the size of Florida. Those markets will keep the SEC competitively positioned against the Westward expansion of the Big Ten in terms of market size, which is precisely why the Big Ten would love to add those two schools as well. Picking up FSU cements the SEC's position with regards to Florida delivering that state the same way that Texas and Texas A&M deliver the Lone Star state.
It's been a bit since I worked with the network's subscription figures, but both the SECN and ACCN are paid the same total subscription fee, but one gets a dime more for out of its market footprint subscriptions and a dime less for its in-market subscriptions and each household subscribed represents around a dollar seventy-five per month. If 1/3rd of the public signs up for the ESPN sports package in two states totaling 21 million that's 1.75 x 7 million and that comes to 147 million per year for each. That roughly pays the way for Virginia and for North Carolina just on those measly conference network fees you dismiss so quickly and covers Duke and FSU. And since FSU pays its own way so that leaves the deal maker of Duke in the clear and makes the SEC anything earned by FSU. Virginia Tech, N.C. State and Wake Forest keep the ACCN's fees for Virginia and North Carolina and Virginia, Duke, and North Carolina add them for the SECN and ESPN keeps 50% of the NET profits for both Networks. ESPN wanted in 2011 to add Virginia Tech and N.C. State to the SEC along with Missouri and Texas A&M and that deal fell apart. And that set the ACC back because the same deal would have put them in Texas at the same time. ESPN already double dips Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida for conference network subscriptions. And they covered their difference for out of market subs by adding Cal, Stanford and SMU the last time around.
And while all of this is napkin math subject to specific subscription totals and not an estimation of 1/3rd of households which in the Southeast and Southwest is lowball for sports television estimates based on the viewer saturation numbers for the number of households actually watching games vs the total possible number of households, it's likely close enough to represent the actual process of evaluation. For instance the highest saturation in the nation belongs to Birmingham where about 70% of all households will watch college football on a Saturday.
What you should think about is how sophisticated the valuation system of ESPN or FOX would be, and why they would offer pro rata additions in the first place if the numbers weren't stilted in their favor with regards to market additions which impact their bottom line when commercial revenue is calculated which has nothing to do with winning and losing and everything to do with the actual eyeballs on events.
The issue is not whether North Carolina or Virginia ever win a football game, but rather how many Virginia and North Carolina alumni watch their school's sports on TV. ESPN knows they have a ratings monster in the SEC. They simply want to add two large markets to it and the SEC sees an opportunity to gain national exposure for basketball and academic recognition for the association they would have with its members.
UNC and Duke are massive national brands in basketball. If their fans watch football the way Auburn and Alabama fans watch their schools play basketball it's a winner simply based upon the alumni in the home states. Add in the national brand identification with North Carolina and Duke and you add even more reach into the national audience. Virginia is a solid hoops brand and regional sports brand in an area the SEC reaches, but not nearly as well as they could.
All of this remains Network driven. The schools want more money from their conferences, and the networks suggest which schools they could add which would enhance their revenue. Networks have been giving evaluations of prospective members since the 90's. Pay models have shifted, but no school has been added which didn't enhance the pay model at the time they were added.
Georgia carries 85% of the state of Georgia outside of Atlanta and 52% of Atlanta's DMA. The SEC doesn't require Georgia Tech for dominance there. Florida and Florida State both penetrate the Miami DMA just not enough to unseat Miami's control of it. They overwhelmingly deliver the rest of the state. The SEC has the majority of Kentucky. They have the overwhelming market control in Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri. They have dominant control in Texas and with FSU would have it in Florida. Duke and North Carolina or N.C. State and North Carolina would deliver it in North Carolina. Virginia and Virginia Tech are about a wash but UVa is the Flagship and major academic leader in that state.
At 20 members the SEC would be well served to have added those 4 schools. At 22 it essentially completes its expectations if it adds Clemson to have a dominant position in South Carolina (think a state the size of Alabama with two SEC schools) and adds Kansas, which while not purely Southwestern has figured prominently into their market considerations.
The SEC's interests as have been consistently expressed by its member schools' presidents have been to dominate the markets in the Southeast/Southwest. Adding Virginia, North Carolina Duke and Florida State do that. And ESPN and the SEC wouldn't be speculating about it if the plan wasn't viable. Speculation is designed to acclimate fans to potential coming moves and fill dead airtime between sports seasons. The chatter serves a purpose.
When the SEC added South Carolina after Clemson decided not to pursue an SEC invitation in '91 the idea of expanding into South Carolina was to have a bridge built to North Carolina which when combined with Tennessee, and Georgia would be a lure along with Kentucky's blueblood basketball pedigree for the Tar Heels to take seriously should the time ever come. It seems to have arrived.
Whether you choose to believe the math or not, it's been worked out by folks at FOX and ESPN and is sound enough for the SEC and Big Ten to pursue those 3 schools and Florida State. Geography and the current rights holder being ESPN favor the SEC.
Don't be surprised if it happens.