As predicted by Mark Halperin (dem insider) and Rich Baris (big data polls) over a week ago, Kamalas poll numbers are collapsing.

Halperin said the dem internal polls were not good, Kamala was not leading in any of the swing state polls, and that by the end of the week more polls would come out that were unfavorable to her. Basically, Kamala got no convention bounce, and instead was about to back slide.

The polls came in, and as Halperin and Baris reported (they had inside info on the polls days before release), they were not good.

Nates own model, which had Harris winning the election by several points a week ago now shows Trump the favorite by 14 points. It has crept up literally every day.

The Activote poll, which showed Harris +2, now shows Trump +1 nationally. It made Nate so upset that he's removing that poll from his model.

But commie Tommie says Trump is losing and we are scared

I don’t see it as a collapse, but rather a regression toward the mean.

Harris’ numbers were very inflated due to response bias by excited liberals who were inclined to answer polls. Now that this excitement has worn off, you’re seeing a normalization.

It’s true that Kamala’s internals have her down in the Midwest, but not a blow out.

Now if someone could just get Trump to sit back and let her do herself in. She doesn't need help.

wow, haven't seen Halperin's name in quite some time.

The debate will be a big blow to Kamala. Like I said before they crowned Kamala too early.

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(09-03-2024 03:09 PM)hburg Wrote:  The debate will be a big blow to Kamala. Like I said before they crowned Kamala too early.

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Or, let her do an actual interview with someone who asks tough questions.

(09-03-2024 03:09 PM)hburg Wrote:  The debate will be a big blow to Kamala. Like I said before they crowned Kamala too early.

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I don't think it happens. Kamala is dumb, but all of her handlers aren't. No way she risks blowing up whatever chance she has. And she'll blame it on Trump, then keep hiding from the press until the election.

(09-03-2024 03:09 PM)hburg Wrote:  The debate will be a big blow to Kamala. Like I said before they crowned Kamala too early.

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I’m still not 100% convinced she shows up. Kamala and her staff know that she will get thoroughly embarrassed if she attempts to debate Trump using her & Biden’s pathetic admin as her back up. You can’t polish up a pile of dog sh-t and that is what the Biden administration has been. The more I think about it, she will pull out of the debate and the media will run all sorts of interference for her while the mentally retarded leftists lap it up.

(09-03-2024 03:17 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(09-03-2024 03:09 PM)hburg Wrote:  The debate will be a big blow to Kamala. Like I said before they crowned Kamala too early.

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I don't think it happens. Kamala is dumb, but all of her handlers aren't. No way she risks blowing up whatever chance she has. And she'll blame it on Trump, then keep hiding from the press until the election.

Thr debate is an msm ambush..remember these folks eill do snything

So, who do the coup leaders replace Knee Pads with?

That 4 question, 9 minute "interview" with her emotional support animal in tow was a disaster.

Can ANYONE envision that person sitting across the table from Xi or Pootey-Poot? She's a total fraud and it shows every time she's unscripted.

Just a mess.

(09-03-2024 03:00 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  I don’t see it as a collapse, but rather a regression toward the mean.

Harris’ numbers were very inflated due to response bias by excited liberals who were inclined to answer polls. Now that this excitement has worn off, you’re seeing a normalization.

It’s true that Kamala’s internals have her down in the Midwest, but not a blow out.

For the most part (of the public polls) thats actually correct.

The one thing Baris said (and several others have confirmed) is that Harris is starting to show cracks where even Biden* wasnt.

The good news for Kamala is that older black women, who were turned off of Biden*, will now get their butts out and vote for her.

The bad news is that younger blacks and black men that were behind Trump are still behind Trump. Baris also said that this is likely the start of the floodgates opening where it comes to blacks and the democrats. Older blacks were married to the democrats. Younger blacks are not. As the older black voters die off, they are replaced by a black population that isnt married to the democrats, and are just as likely to be cynical of the DNC as the gop.

in 2016 Trump was only able to get a few percent of the black vote. (Still better than Romney) In 2020 he snagged 10%. It is projected that he will win 15%-25% of the black vote in 2024.

The cracks for Kamala that may lead to a full collapse is that she is losing the white male votes that Biden wasnt. And thats very bad for states like PA. MI, and WI.

Halperin stated over a week ago that if this indeed started happening, that Kamala could find herself in the same position Biden* was in by mid-September. (A single and very grim path to victory) So the dems are very nervous that Halperin seems to have been correct for the forecast for last week. If Kamala continues to slide like she has, then Halperins mid-september prediction will come true.

(09-03-2024 03:29 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(09-03-2024 03:00 PM)WalkThePlank Wrote:  I don’t see it as a collapse, but rather a regression toward the mean.

Harris’ numbers were very inflated due to response bias by excited liberals who were inclined to answer polls. Now that this excitement has worn off, you’re seeing a normalization.

It’s true that Kamala’s internals have her down in the Midwest, but not a blow out.

For the most part (of the public polls) thats actually correct.

The one thing Baris said (and several others have confirmed) is that Harris is starting to show cracks where even Biden* wasnt.

The good news for Kamala is that older black women, who were turned off of Biden*, will now get their butts out and vote for her.

The bad news is that younger blacks and black men that were behind Trump are still behind Trump. Baris also said that this is likely the start of the floodgates opening where it comes to blacks and the democrats. Older blacks were married to the democrats. Younger blacks are not. As the older black voters die off, they are replaced by a black population that isnt married to the democrats, and are just as likely to be cynical of the DNC as the gop.

in 2016 Trump was only able to get a few percent of the black vote. (Still better than Romney) In 2020 he snagged 10%. It is projected that he will win 15%-25% of the black vote in 2024.

The cracks for Kamala that may lead to a full collapse is that she is losing the white male votes that Biden wasnt. And thats very bad for states like PA. MI, and WI.

Halperin stated over a week ago that if this indeed started happening, that Kamala could find herself in the same position Biden* was in by mid-September. (A single and very grim path to victory) So the dems are very nervous that Halperin seems to have been correct for the forecast for last week. If Kamala continues to slide like she has, then Halperins mid-september prediction will come true.

Yeah, Baris does a nice job of explaining the trends and histrionics of pollsters so you can see the smokescreen before it happens. It’s worth mentioning that he’s on the right, similar to Mark Mitchell, so they have their biases.

I agree that the trends of black men in particular not moving much since the Harris campaign, is a bad sign for Democrats. That could still change I suppose, but I doubt it.

Also, people in general need to stop posting Silver or 538 when trying to score political points. Those models are not accurate and haven’t been for over a decade (538).

The only way Kamala wins is if Democrat activists are able to cheat again. We need eyes everywhere.

(09-03-2024 03:48 PM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  The only way Kamala wins is if Democrat activists are able to cheat again. We need eyes everywhere.

Lara Trump keeps saying that's the RNC's plan, and it's all they have been working on. I assume she means only in the swing states.

It's funny that the Dems always yell foul when they lose (Hillary, Stacey Abrams, etc.), but if the other side says it, they get all righteous.

I can say without a doubt that the Rs are convinced the Ds cheated last time, or they wouldn't be making the effort they are now.

Posts 8 and 9 lay out the debate issue succinctly.

There is absolutely ZERO CHANCE Kamala participates in the schedule Sept 10 debate. Trump will absolutely decimate her on national TV.....and Kamala knows it. More importantly, her inner circle of advisors know it.

No, Kamala will duck the debate with some BS excuse or claim illness or whatever. Trump needs to remain quiet and not give her a gift-wrapped reason/excuse to not debate.

It really does not matter. Trump will win the election handily despite the mules dumping the forged ballots in the key swing states.

(09-03-2024 03:23 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  So, who do the coup leaders replace Knee Pads with?

That 4 question, 9 minute "interview" with her emotional support animal in tow was a disaster.

Can ANYONE envision that person sitting across the table from Xi or Pootey-Poot? She's a total fraud and it shows every time she's unscripted.

Just a mess.

Where da lefties?

(09-03-2024 04:08 PM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  Where da lefties?

They're huddling together using a ouija board to figure out a response.

Or a magic 8 ball and an abacus.

She'll get COVID to avoid the debate.