I used P4 for a reason. This doesn't include the Big 12. What move do you have coming next?

I think the B1G will make a move in about a decade for UNC and UVA.

If that fails, they grab Georgia Tech and Kansas.

I think UVa and UNC will go, but market grab is less of a priority this go around. Same reason GaTech may have been attractive in the past.

It just doesn’t add as much as it used to athletically. The B1G and SEC are already so strong in athletics. It’s just more about sticking it to another conference by taking their heart and soul, while penetrating a new market coincidentally.

Likewise, FSU and Clemson brands look a lot less attractive to the SEC, despite brand recognition being a stronger determining factor in realignment as we move forward.

Nonetheless, UNC is probably the most attractive brand outside of ND and perhaps FSU in the realignment sweepstakes, and they will be pursued BIGLY by the B1G and SEC in the next 5-10 years.

Big XII: People say it isn't a Power conference.

Pac 12: Exists

(01-17-2022 08:59 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  What will be the next P4 realignment move?

Just guessing at the sequence but think the B1G's massive new TV deal will be the trigger

KU + Mizzou to the B1G

Clemson + FSU to the SEC

Duke + North Carolina + Virginia to the B1G

NC State + VT + ? + to the SEC

Notre Dame to the B1G

PAC 12 adds Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the SEC truly wants to go to a power conference of 20 where they would basically be playing two conference under the umbrella of the SEC they may go after teams in the BigTen. As mentioned you would like to go in a cripple your competition as well as to gain hopefully new markets. I would pursue Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State ( maybe sub out for Penn State ) and Notre Dame from the independence category of the FBS. These four teams included into the SEC fold would up the money maybe X2 possibly. Could you imagine the SEC gets around what 45million I’m guessing now per team you add this four with Texas and Oklahoma coming in as well I would have to say at minimum 75million per school if not more. That’s conquering field right there game over on any expansion going forward for no one would be able to match what so ever.

SEC I don't see ever getting anyone from the B1G because of the CIC.

Rather I could see the B1G move west in a big way to bring in California teams.

UVA/UNC comparatively aren't much of a prize.

B1G/14 + Duke, Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia
SEC/15 + Clemson, Florida St, Miami, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
PAC/12 + Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech
ACC/6 + XII/7 + Memphis, South Florida, Temple

(01-17-2022 08:59 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I used P4 for a reason. This doesn't include the Big 12. What move do you have coming next?

I think the B1G will make a move in about a decade for UNC and UVA.

If that fails, they grab Georgia Tech and Kansas.

It's kinda hard to omit the Big 12, since post expansion it'll still be the #1 Basketball conference and the #3 Football conference.

If its the P4, then I'd say the Pac 12 is on the chopping block ; as Wazzu et al take their rightful place in the MWC.

The thing about the Big 12 is it's in a region that is growing more than any area in the country. Interest in the Pac 12 is dying - and Bohn's roving eye at USC is looking at Ohio State and Michigan with longingness.

It depends on whether the Big 10 can make a move approximating Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. If basketball is liberated from the NCAA's control Kansas has a basketball valuation of over 319 million which would jump to over 640 million and when added to a 205-million-dollar football valuation brings the Jayhawks total value to over 845 million. ND's value would be at about 970 million. That's 1.81 billion in total value.

The SEC got 2.13 out of OU and UT.

So, if the B1G lands Kansas and Notre Dame as #15 and #16 it is highly likely that both the SEC and B1G stop at 16 each.

Notre Dame which only owes the ACC 2 and 3 ACC home games against the Irish per year could likely move and simply play those games until the contract is up. The Irish keep the funds from ACC games played in South Bend, so breaking out of the ACC is very doable and the only way I see them doing this is if athletes are classified as employees and ND decides to play at the highest tier. In that case they'll need all the media revenue they can get so hello Chicago! The pair is a nice fit for the B1G and shores up their control over markets in their footprint which NBC and ESPN had a back door into with access to ND.

If this happens the ACC and PAC 12 may make some market moves by plucking some more Big 12 schools both old and new.

Now if the Irish stay put and basketball is liberated, I could see an SEC / B1G showdown over Kansas, Duke, North Carolina and Florida State or possibly Virginia depending on the winner (SEC or B1G). In that world conferences of 20-24 would be possible.

If you want a large P2 you root for this. If you want order and a P4 you pull for ND and Kansas to the B1G.

Hopefully none.

Such a shame seeing North Carolina in a different conference than Duke. Huge shame.

The ACC, Big Ten, PAC, ND and Kansas merge together to form a 42-team superconference. Football will be split into 7 different 6-team divisions.

Move #1....B1G invites Kansas.

(01-18-2022 07:12 AM)goofus Wrote:  The ACC, Big Ten, PAC, ND and Kansas merge together to form a 42-team superconference. Football will be split into 7 different 6-team divisions.

In this superconference, how do you see conference revenues being split? Would the B1G give up their dominant financial position to allow equal revenue sharing?

(01-18-2022 08:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 07:12 AM)goofus Wrote:  The ACC, Big Ten, PAC, ND and Kansas merge together to form a 42-team superconference. Football will be split into 7 different 6-team divisions.

In this superconference, how do you see conference revenues being split? Would the B1G give up their dominant financial position to allow equal revenue sharing?

Yes, All TV/media revenue will be split equally. Gate revenue will not.

Move #2....ACC invites Baylor and TCU.

I think we’re all waiting to see the new media deals. Could be enough of a chasm to convince a few Big 12 or Pac-12 teams to jump East. ACC could get a look-in if the Big 12 goes to not-ESPN and the Mouse gets a chance to recoup some losses.

(01-18-2022 08:55 AM)Crayton Wrote:  I think we’re all waiting to see the new media deals. Could be enough of a chasm to convince a few Big 12 or Pac-12 teams to jump East. ACC could get a look-in if the Big 12 goes to not-ESPN and the Mouse gets a chance to recoup some losses.

The need for "balance" in the P5 is often overlooked - and its perhaps the biggest force keeping P5 cannibalization from happening.

"The Alliance" was mostly filled out by the Autonomous weaklings, to try and invigorate the Pac 12 and ACC (who have been struggling). Those conferences needed the rub. The Big 12's best advantage was staying aligned with the SEC. If "the Alliance" would have gotten all 4, thereby making it a "4 vs 1" scenario, that would have killed college sports - by "backing" the SEC into a doomsday corner (making it an island), and forcing their hand.

Further shuffling will only be caused by some form of what we just saw (i.e. a UT/OU/USC type scenario). It wouldn't be triggered by a Kansas. KU is already in the #1 basketball conference in the country (post-expansion), and the #3 football conference.

The hypothetical removal of the SEC's closest ally (the Big 12) - to set up a "3 vs 1" scenario - is probably the least likely possibility - especially in light of the actual competitiveness of the conferences. It would upset the balance of college athletics.

USC is the next malcontent that COULD possibly trigger an exodus, imo. Their removal doesn't pose an existential threat to the Golden Goose (in fact it could even help the balance of power), and USC AD Bohn has made it known that USC will look out for itself.

Half of the Pac 12 is dead wood. Not only financially, but competitively, the Pac 12 is widely speculated to be on borrowed time. The population trends in the West are also not working in the Pac 12's favor, and Bohn/USC has a ton to gain by bridging his access to the East. Geography is killing them right now. The next Pac 12 TV deal could bring on Defcon 1.

(01-18-2022 08:36 AM)goofus Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 08:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 07:12 AM)goofus Wrote:  The ACC, Big Ten, PAC, ND and Kansas merge together to form a 42-team superconference. Football will be split into 7 different 6-team divisions.

In this superconference, how do you see conference revenues being split? Would the B1G give up their dominant financial position to allow equal revenue sharing?

Yes, All TV/media revenue will be split equally. Gate revenue will not.

Then why would the B1G go along with this? In my view, this would be the single biggest obstacle to forming a superconference. The SEC would have the same problem if they wanted to form one of their own with the B12 and ACC as partners. In every other way, this would be an excellent idea. These conferences are quite academically and culturally compatible in many ways. So, what's the solution?

I think it's safe to say that these three conferences would be more valuable together than as separate competitors. In aggregate, there is a lot more money to be made. Maybe the B1G schools could be persuaded to accept something like this.

Lump the total current payouts for each conference together. For each school, calculate their equal share of their own conference's payout. Then divide each school's individual payout by the payouts of the three conferences combined. The result is their percentage of a new media contract for regular season only. Current B1G members would have a higher percentage than ACC or PAC members to retain the financial advantage they have earned over decades.

All post season revenues, including net revenue for a 12 team Conference Championship Tournament (CCT). all bowl revenues and all NCAAT revenues, would be divided in 42 equal shares. CCT revenue would include media revenue and gate receipts and concessions, less game day expenses and travel expenses for visiting teams, family, and bands. The 12 team CCT is likely to produce a large share of the increase in total superconference revenues, which would not be possible without combining the three existing conferences, so at the end of the day current B1G members would enjoy more revenue than they do today, while ACC and PAC members would receive an even bigger increase.

(01-18-2022 11:01 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 08:36 AM)goofus Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 08:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 07:12 AM)goofus Wrote:  The ACC, Big Ten, PAC, ND and Kansas merge together to form a 42-team superconference. Football will be split into 7 different 6-team divisions.

In this superconference, how do you see conference revenues being split? Would the B1G give up their dominant financial position to allow equal revenue sharing?

Yes, All TV/media revenue will be split equally. Gate revenue will not.

Then why would the B1G go along with this? In my view, this would be the single biggest obstacle to forming a superconference. The SEC would have the same problem if they wanted to form one of their own with the B12 and ACC as partners. In every other way, this would be an excellent idea. These conferences are quite academically and culturally compatible in many ways. So, what's the solution?

I think it's safe to say that these three conferences would be more valuable together than as separate competitors. In aggregate, there is a lot more money to be made. Maybe the B1G schools could be persuaded to accept something like this.

Lump the total current payouts for each conference together. For each school, calculate their equal share of their own conference's payout. Then divide each school's individual payout by the payouts of the three conferences combined. The result is their percentage of a new media contract for regular season only. Current B1G members would have a higher percentage than ACC or PAC members to retain the financial advantage they have earned over decades.

All post season revenues, including net revenue for a 12 team Conference Championship Tournament (CCT). all bowl revenues and all NCAAT revenues, would be divided in 42 equal shares. CCT revenue would include media revenue and gate receipts and concessions, less game day expenses and travel expenses for visiting teams, family, and bands. The 12 team CCT is likely to produce a large share of the increase in total superconference revenues, which would not be possible without combining the three existing conferences, so at the end of the day current B1G members would enjoy more revenue than they do today, while ACC and PAC members would receive an even bigger increase.

A couple of thoughts...

1. The Big Ten Network is partially owned by Fox
2. The ACC Network is a partnership with ESPN
3. The Pac 12 Network is owned by the conference.
4. The ACC and Pac 12 lag in revenue to the SEC and Big Ten.

So... The Big Ten and ACC members dissolve and join the Pac 12 to OWN their own network. The conference re-opens talks with ESPN and FOX for distribution rights.

The member schools determine how they wish to work together and compensate athletes.

Ultimately, the schools may resign their membership to the NCAA and the conference becomes their own governing body.

Just some thoughts...