(01-19-2022 12:59 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 10:59 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  Further shuffling will only be caused by some form of what we just saw (i.e. a UT/OU/USC type scenario). It wouldn't be triggered by a Kansas. KU is already in the #1 basketball conference in the country (post-expansion), and the #3 football conference.

The hypothetical removal of the SEC's closest ally (the Big 12) - to set up a "3 vs 1" scenario - is probably the least likely possibility - especially in light of the actual competitiveness of the conferences. It would upset the balance of college athletics.

USC is the next malcontent that COULD possibly trigger an exodus, imo. Their removal doesn't pose an existential threat to the Golden Goose (in fact it could even help the balance of power), and USC AD Bohn has made it known that USC will look out for itself.

Half of the Pac 12 is dead wood. Not only financially, but competitively, the Pac 12 is widely speculated to be on borrowed time. The population trends in the West are also not working in the Pac 12's favor, and Bohn/USC has a ton to gain by bridging his access to the East. Geography is killing them right now. The next Pac 12 TV deal could bring on Defcon 1.

For a conference that in your opinion is, "the #3 football conference," where is the talent? In 2021, the Big 12 became the first power conference since 2006 to fail to have a first-round draft pick:
https://longhornswire.usatoday.com/2021/...onference/
"On Thursday night, the Big 12 became the first Power Five conference to not have a first-round pick since the Big East in 2006 according to CBS Sports. To pour salt on the wound, Houston, BYU, Tulsa and North Dakota State each had more picks than the Big 12 in the first round."

Just to prove that 2021 was no fluke, the Big 12 has zero first round picks in the latest Mel Kiper mock draft:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft20...akobe-dean
In Kiper's mock draft, the SEC had 9, the Big Ten had 8, the Pac-12 had 5, the ACC had 4. Even the MWC had 2 first round picks in Kiper's mock draft. This is with Oklahoma and Texas. What happens when they leave? What happens to the Big 12 TV contract without OU and UT? Even with OU and UT, the Big 12 produces the least amount of NFL talent among the five power conferences.

USC is not leaving the Pac-12. Mike Bohn's comments were directed at then commissioner Larry Scott, who everyone knew had to go. USC has no desire to play in an eastern conference. Their furthest trip east in 2022 is to Salt Lake City. The malcontents are USC fans and alumni. USC got crushed at home this season by Stanford, Oregon State, Utah and UCLA. They had to hire someone like Lincoln Riley. USC fans have expectations for football and the team has not met them in a while. USC is a great example of what happens when a school hires an AD with no previous experience and a head coach with no previous experience.

The west is the second fastest growing region in the country. The west has seven of the 13 fastest growing states. The population in the west increase increased from 71.9 million in 2010 to 78.5 million in 2020. Geography is not a problem for the west.

Geography is both a blessing and a curse for the PAC. It keeps (so far) poachers away but it providers little opportunity for growth by expansion. The only way it seems for the PAC to be harmed is by a western wing of the B1G to be added of somewhere between 6-10 schools. Otherwise, the PAC will continue to exist as a power conference.

(01-18-2022 02:33 AM)JRsec Wrote:  It depends on whether the Big 10 can make a move approximating Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. If basketball is liberated from the NCAA's control Kansas has a basketball valuation of over 319 million which would jump to over 640 million and when added to a 205-million-dollar football valuation brings the Jayhawks total value to over 845 million. ND's value would be at about 970 million. That's 1.81 billion in total value.

The SEC got 2.13 out of OU and UT.

So, if the B1G lands Kansas and Notre Dame as #15 and #16 it is highly likely that both the SEC and B1G stop at 16 each.

Notre Dame which only owes the ACC 2 and 3 ACC home games against the Irish per year could likely move and simply play those games until the contract is up. The Irish keep the funds from ACC games played in South Bend, so breaking out of the ACC is very doable and the only way I see them doing this is if athletes are classified as employees and ND decides to play at the highest tier. In that case they'll need all the media revenue they can get so hello Chicago! The pair is a nice fit for the B1G and shores up their control over markets in their footprint which NBC and ESPN had a back door into with access to ND.

If this happens the ACC and PAC 12 may make some market moves by plucking some more Big 12 schools both old and new.

Now if the Irish stay put and basketball is liberated, I could see an SEC / B1G showdown over Kansas, Duke, North Carolina and Florida State or possibly Virginia depending on the winner (SEC or B1G). In that world conferences of 20-24 would be possible.

If you want a large P2 you root for this. If you want order and a P4 you pull for ND and Kansas to the B1G.

How would this look:

Cincinnati, West Virginia, SMU, Baylor -> ACC

Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Oklahoma State -> PAC

Notre Dame, Kansas -> Big Ten

North Texas, Boise State, UAB, UT-San Antonio, Memphis, Colorado State, South Florida, Louisiana -> Big 12

North
BYU, Boise State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Colorado State, North Texas

South
UT-San Antonio, Louisiana, Memphis, South Florida, Central Florida, UAB



We might quibble on BYU vs TCU, but I think the DFW market would push the lever towards TCU. North Texas, UT-San Antonio and U of L Lafayette are Carnegie R1 institutions. So in the worst case scenario the Big 12 would still want to keep a presence in Texas and expand their presence in the South, including Florida. The ACC might push past 16 to make up for the loss of the few games with the Domers but I don't think the others would. Therefore, the Big 12 won't be killed off.

This would also open the way for Texas State, Air Force, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky and/or New Mexico to the AAC.

(01-18-2022 10:59 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 08:55 AM)Crayton Wrote:  I think we’re all waiting to see the new media deals. Could be enough of a chasm to convince a few Big 12 or Pac-12 teams to jump East. ACC could get a look-in if the Big 12 goes to not-ESPN and the Mouse gets a chance to recoup some losses.

The need for "balance" in the P5 is often overlooked - and its perhaps the biggest force keeping P5 cannibalization from happening.

"The Alliance" was mostly filled out by the Autonomous weaklings, to try and invigorate the Pac 12 and ACC (who have been struggling). Those conferences needed the rub. The Big 12's best advantage was staying aligned with the SEC. If "the Alliance" would have gotten all 4, thereby making it a "4 vs 1" scenario, that would have killed college sports - by "backing" the SEC into a doomsday corner (making it an island), and forcing their hand.

Further shuffling will only be caused by some form of what we just saw (i.e. a UT/OU/USC type scenario). It wouldn't be triggered by a Kansas. KU is already in the #1 basketball conference in the country (post-expansion), and the #3 football conference.

The hypothetical removal of the SEC's closest ally (the Big 12) - to set up a "3 vs 1" scenario - is probably the least likely possibility - especially in light of the actual competitiveness of the conferences. It would upset the balance of college athletics.

USC is the next malcontent that COULD possibly trigger an exodus, imo. Their removal doesn't pose an existential threat to the Golden Goose (in fact it could even help the balance of power), and USC AD Bohn has made it known that USC will look out for itself.

Half of the Pac 12 is dead wood. Not only financially, but competitively, the Pac 12 is widely speculated to be on borrowed time. The population trends in the West are also not working in the Pac 12's favor, and Bohn/USC has a ton to gain by bridging his access to the East. Geography is killing them right now. The next Pac 12 TV deal could bring on Defcon 1.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-...ing-states

What? Just what? 6 of the top 10 fastest growing states currently reside inside the footprint of the PAC. Everyone realizes California is losing population just like the majority of states in the northern rust belt. The majority of Californians are moving to Texas and that's why they will be the PAC's target in expansion giving them 7 of the 10.

Unfortunately for the other P5 and G5 commissioners it's quickly starting to look like Kliavkoff is the smartest man in the room not named Sankey, So I like our chances to retain all of our current schools while picking up some to become the clear 3rd place conference.

IMO we will land between 3-5 conferences in a breakaway pay for play league. The only way I am wrong is if the desired outcome from corporate America is 2 super conferences, in which case only the SEC and B1G will survive.

(01-19-2022 12:59 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 10:59 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  Further shuffling will only be caused by some form of what we just saw (i.e. a UT/OU/USC type scenario). It wouldn't be triggered by a Kansas. KU is already in the #1 basketball conference in the country (post-expansion), and the #3 football conference.

The hypothetical removal of the SEC's closest ally (the Big 12) - to set up a "3 vs 1" scenario - is probably the least likely possibility - especially in light of the actual competitiveness of the conferences. It would upset the balance of college athletics.

USC is the next malcontent that COULD possibly trigger an exodus, imo. Their removal doesn't pose an existential threat to the Golden Goose (in fact it could even help the balance of power), and USC AD Bohn has made it known that USC will look out for itself.

Half of the Pac 12 is dead wood. Not only financially, but competitively, the Pac 12 is widely speculated to be on borrowed time. The population trends in the West are also not working in the Pac 12's favor, and Bohn/USC has a ton to gain by bridging his access to the East. Geography is killing them right now. The next Pac 12 TV deal could bring on Defcon 1.

For a conference that in your opinion is, "the #3 football conference," where is the talent? In 2021, the Big 12 became the first power conference since 2006 to fail to have a first-round draft pick:
https://longhornswire.usatoday.com/2021/...onference/
"On Thursday night, the Big 12 became the first Power Five conference to not have a first-round pick since the Big East in 2006 according to CBS Sports. To pour salt on the wound, Houston, BYU, Tulsa and North Dakota State each had more picks than the Big 12 in the first round."

Just to prove that 2021 was no fluke, the Big 12 has zero first round picks in the latest Mel Kiper mock draft:
https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft20...akobe-dean
In Kiper's mock draft, the SEC had 9, the Big Ten had 8, the Pac-12 had 5, the ACC had 4. Even the MWC had 2 first round picks in Kiper's mock draft. This is with Oklahoma and Texas. What happens when they leave? What happens to the Big 12 TV contract without OU and UT? Even with OU and UT, the Big 12 produces the least amount of NFL talent among the five power conferences.

USC is not leaving the Pac-12. Mike Bohn's comments were directed at then commissioner Larry Scott, who everyone knew had to go. USC has no desire to play in an eastern conference. Their furthest trip east in 2022 is to Salt Lake City. The malcontents are USC fans and alumni. USC got crushed at home this season by Stanford, Oregon State, Utah and UCLA. They had to hire someone like Lincoln Riley. USC fans have expectations for football and the team has not met them in a while. USC is a great example of what happens when a school hires an AD with no previous experience and a head coach with no previous experience.

The west is the second fastest growing region in the country. The west has seven of the 13 fastest growing states. The population in the west increase increased from 71.9 million in 2010 to 78.5 million in 2020. Geography is not a problem for the west.

I should have scrolled down, you beat me to it

(01-22-2022 12:25 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 10:59 AM)TroyTBoy Wrote:  

(01-18-2022 08:55 AM)Crayton Wrote:  I think we’re all waiting to see the new media deals. Could be enough of a chasm to convince a few Big 12 or Pac-12 teams to jump East. ACC could get a look-in if the Big 12 goes to not-ESPN and the Mouse gets a chance to recoup some losses.

The need for "balance" in the P5 is often overlooked - and its perhaps the biggest force keeping P5 cannibalization from happening.

"The Alliance" was mostly filled out by the Autonomous weaklings, to try and invigorate the Pac 12 and ACC (who have been struggling). Those conferences needed the rub. The Big 12's best advantage was staying aligned with the SEC. If "the Alliance" would have gotten all 4, thereby making it a "4 vs 1" scenario, that would have killed college sports - by "backing" the SEC into a doomsday corner (making it an island), and forcing their hand.

Further shuffling will only be caused by some form of what we just saw (i.e. a UT/OU/USC type scenario). It wouldn't be triggered by a Kansas. KU is already in the #1 basketball conference in the country (post-expansion), and the #3 football conference.

The hypothetical removal of the SEC's closest ally (the Big 12) - to set up a "3 vs 1" scenario - is probably the least likely possibility - especially in light of the actual competitiveness of the conferences. It would upset the balance of college athletics.

USC is the next malcontent that COULD possibly trigger an exodus, imo. Their removal doesn't pose an existential threat to the Golden Goose (in fact it could even help the balance of power), and USC AD Bohn has made it known that USC will look out for itself.

Half of the Pac 12 is dead wood. Not only financially, but competitively, the Pac 12 is widely speculated to be on borrowed time. The population trends in the West are also not working in the Pac 12's favor, and Bohn/USC has a ton to gain by bridging his access to the East. Geography is killing them right now. The next Pac 12 TV deal could bring on Defcon 1.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-...ing-states

What? Just what? 6 of the top 10 fastest growing states currently reside inside the footprint of the PAC. Everyone realizes California is losing population just like the majority of states in the northern rust belt. The majority of Californians are moving to Texas and that's why they will be the PAC's target in expansion giving them 7 of the 10.

Unfortunately for the other P5 and G5 commissioners it's quickly starting to look like Kliavkoff is the smartest man in the room not named Sankey, So I like our chances to retain all of our current schools while picking up some to become the clear 3rd place conference.

IMO we will land between 3-5 conferences in a breakaway pay for play league. The only way I am wrong is if the desired outcome from corporate America is 2 super conferences, in which case only the SEC and B1G will survive.

Even when population grows at a slower pace, it's still growing. Ohio isn't losing population; it's growing.