.....just curious. Is the eye test or style points only applied to games that Cincinnati plays? For example, did Alabama pass the eye test when they lost their game to a 4 loss A&M squad? Did Bama achieve the required amount of style points when they needed 4 OT's to escape a 6 loss Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing with a backup Quarterback. This eye test, style points thing is so confusing.

(11-28-2021 09:48 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  Georgia is in win or lose, right?

IMO, Georgia would have to be boat-raced to miss the playoffs. Even if they lose by 20 points, they’re in.

Also, all the other favorites (Michigan, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati) would have to win. A loss by any of these teams, further opens the door for Georgia…even if they lose.

(11-28-2021 08:17 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Notre Dame is in unless Alabama, Michigan, and Cincinnati all win.

Maybe, but consider that ESPN has an article up on its website in which 14 ESPN personalities pick the playoff teams. Half picked Oklahoma State, presumably anticipating an Alabama loss. None picked Notre Dame. Conspiracy theory aficionados will conclude that ESPN has instructed the committee to choose Oklahoma State and not Notre Dame in the event that Oklahoma State wins next Saturday.

(11-28-2021 01:45 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  .....just curious. Is the eye test or style points only applied to games that Cincinnati plays? For example, did Alabama pass the eye test when they lost their game to a 4 loss A&M squad? Did Bama achieve the required amount of style points when they needed 4 OT's to escape a 6 loss Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing with a backup Quarterback. This eye test, style points thing is so confusing.

You’re just pointing out a flaw in the moronic decision making. There are no set qualifications, just idiots in a hotel conference room or zoom meetings deciding based on who they are being told makes the cents.

(11-28-2021 02:11 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:45 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  .....just curious. Is the eye test or style points only applied to games that Cincinnati plays? For example, did Alabama pass the eye test when they lost their game to a 4 loss A&M squad? Did Bama achieve the required amount of style points when they needed 4 OT's to escape a 6 loss Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing with a backup Quarterback. This eye test, style points thing is so confusing.

You’re just pointing out a flaw in the moronic decision making. There are no set qualifications, just idiots in a hotel conference room or zoom meetings deciding based on who they are being told makes the cents.

Most Cincinnati fans realize that this CFB Playoff is basically just a TV show. It is comical though to listen to the committee and the talking heads try to explain the why's and what's. The cartel created the terms eye test, smell test, and style points because the phrase "it's our money and y'all ain't gettin' a penny of it" sounds too harsh.

(11-28-2021 09:48 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  Georgia is in win or lose, right?

As long as they don't lose 45-0.

(11-28-2021 09:27 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 09:08 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 08:43 AM)wleakr Wrote:  If OK State is 12-1, they are going over Notre Dame. ND is not a lock at all. Unless you are talking about NY6, but for the 4 playoff spots? No.

I think this is correct. As bizarre as it seems, if Cincy loses to Houston and OK State wins, ND will get in over Cincy. We’ve already seen the committee do this with Michigan/MSU. The Houston loss for Cincy would be worse than the Cincy loss for ND and ND is playing much better football than they did when they met Cincy.

ND needs Bama, Cincy, or OK State to lose and they’re in.

I think the poll tomorrow will be:

1-Georgia
2-Michigan
3-Alabama
4-Cincinnati
5-OK State
6-Notre Dame

OK State will jump Cincy with a win over Baylor. Cincy needs to win and needs either Alabama, Michigan, or OK State to lose and they’re in.

That poll sounds about right, but I don't believe Oklahoma State will jump Cincinnati with a win over a Baylor team that is missing its #1 quarterback. Cincinnati beating a hot Houston team might be more impressive than OSU beating Baylor. Now the Cowboys might jump over a 2-loss Alabama team (assuming Bama loses to Georgia). But honestly, they weren't super impressive last night i the Bedlam game. Their defense came up big in the 2nd half, but some of those turnovers were ugly. And there was a horrible PI non-call on the game's next to last play.

I think if Oklahoma State beats computers #10 Baylor, that will be viewed by the CFP as far more impressive than beating computers #29 Houston. Houston has won 10 or 11 in a row because it has played an abjectly bad schedule, just one cupcake after another. Sagarin says their SOS is #123, which is almost FCS level.

If Alabama beats Georgia, I could see OK State jumping Cincy for the last playoff spot.

(11-28-2021 02:09 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 08:17 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Notre Dame is in unless Alabama, Michigan, and Cincinnati all win.

Maybe, but consider that ESPN has an article up on its website in which 14 ESPN personalities pick the playoff teams. Half picked Oklahoma State, presumably anticipating an Alabama loss. None picked Notre Dame. Conspiracy theory aficionados will conclude that ESPN has instructed the committee to choose Oklahoma State and not Notre Dame in the event that Oklahoma State wins next Saturday.

Such a panel is probably “as good as” ESPN’s SOR in anticipating the committee’s choice. The panel, like the committee, is human. The committee will also be fed stats from FPI to “guide” their decision-making.

FPI also has OKSt as 6th-most likely playoff participant.

(11-28-2021 03:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 09:48 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  Georgia is in win or lose, right?

As long as they don't lose 45-0.

Alabama couldn't beat Wilkes University 45-0 this year.

(11-28-2021 01:45 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  .....just curious. Is the eye test or style points only applied to games that Cincinnati plays? For example, did Alabama pass the eye test when they lost their game to a 4 loss A&M squad? Did Bama achieve the required amount of style points when they needed 4 OT's to escape a 6 loss Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing with a backup Quarterback. This eye test, style points thing is so confusing.

You have to remember that Auburn and Texas AM are in a different league than the 4-loss and 6-loss teams Cincy plays. These teams lose to basically nobody but other SEC teams. The only non-SEC loss they have is to Penn State.

Auburn is a far more talented team than the six-loss teams Cincy plays. According to 24/7, at the start of the season, Auburn's roster had 40 guys who were rated at the 4-star or 5-star level (35 four-star, five five-star). That's as many 4* and 5* star guys as Cincy, ECU, Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF have put together. And really moreso, because those six schools have zero 5* guys, together they have 39 four-star guys.

And most other SEC teams are like this too. Lower-level SEC teams like Mississippi State and Kentucky have 19 and 21 four or five star guys.

So every week, you are playing teams with talented, physical athletes, whether the team is having a good year or not. That's draining in a way that playing Navy, ECU, Temple, USF, Tulsa, etc. week after week is not.

So Alabama squeaking by an Auburn team with that kind of talent, in front of 90,000 crazed Auburn fans (something again that AAC teams never see on the road), is not something to be denigrated.

That deserves a lot of extra consideration, IMO.

(11-28-2021 03:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:45 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  .....just curious. Is the eye test or style points only applied to games that Cincinnati plays? For example, did Alabama pass the eye test when they lost their game to a 4 loss A&M squad? Did Bama achieve the required amount of style points when they needed 4 OT's to escape a 6 loss Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing with a backup Quarterback. This eye test, style points thing is so confusing.

You have to remember that Auburn and Texas AM are in a different league than the 4-loss and 6-loss teams Cincy plays. These teams lose to basically nobody but other SEC teams. The only non-SEC loss they have is to Penn State.

Auburn is a far more talented team than the six-loss teams Cincy plays. According to 24/7, at the start of the season, Auburn's roster had 40 guys who were rated at the 4-star or 5-star level (35 four-star, five five-star). That's as many 4* and 5* star guys as Cincy, ECU, Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF have put together. And really moreso, because those six schools have zero 5* guys, together they have 39 four-star guys.

And most other SEC teams are like this too. Lower-level SEC teams like Mississippi State and Kentucky have 19 and 21 four or five star guys.

So every week, you are playing teams with talented, physical athletes, whether the team is having a good year or not. That's draining in a way that playing Navy, ECU, Temple, USF, Tulsa, etc. week after week is not.

So Alabama squeaking by an Auburn team with that kind of talent, in front of 90,000 crazed Auburn fans (something again that AAC teams never see on the road), is not something to be denigrated.

That deserves a lot of extra consideration, IMO.

Cool story.......so what you're saying is that Bama did infact pass the eye test, smell test, and picked up style points by taking 4 OT's to survive a 6-6 Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing a backup at Quarterback. Thanks for clearing that up. This is all so confusing.

(11-28-2021 03:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 09:48 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  Georgia is in win or lose, right?

As long as they don't lose 45-0.

They can forfeit the game and they are in. Bama, UM, UC and UGa. They’d be ahead of Okie St and ND based on track record.

Quote:I think if Oklahoma State beats computers #10 Baylor, that will be viewed by the CFP as far more impressive than beating computers #29 Houston.

They're not going to go by computer analysis if they're already within Their rankings (probably only used for ones not thought about hitting the end of their rankings).

And Houston will be #23 (or maybe #22) when the CFP rankings come out. Baylor will be at least #8 as they already are. OK-St will be ranked #6 fighting #8 baylor, which should put them above #4 Cinci beating #23 Houston -- but it'll be hard to deny the undefeated team VS ~equally ranked 1L team for a Playoff.

Likely Rankings this week:
(1) Georgia
(2) Alabama
(3) Michigan
(4) Cinci
(5) OK-State
(6) Notre Dame
(7) Ohio State
(8) Baylor
(10) Oregon
(14) Iowa
(15) Pitt
(16) Wake Forest
(17) Utah

Cinci Stays IF 1 of these 3 things happens:
- Georgia beats Alabama (Georgia, Michigan, OK-State, Cinci) - 67% chance, IMO
- Iowa beats Michigan (Alabama, Georgia, OK-State, Cinci) - 35% chance, IMO
- Baylor beats OK-State (Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Cinci) - 45% chance, IMO
* One of these happening, 89.5% chance, IMO

So I think Cinci's chances are good, if they beat Houston (60% chance, IMO).

So Cinci making it -- 53.7% chance, IMO.

(11-28-2021 09:00 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:I think if Oklahoma State beats computers #10 Baylor, that will be viewed by the CFP as far more impressive than beating computers #29 Houston.

They're not going to go by computer analysis if they're already within Their rankings (probably only used for ones not thought about hitting the end of their rankings).

And Houston will be #23 (or maybe #22) when the CFP rankings come out. Baylor will be at least #8 as they already are. OK-St will be ranked #6 fighting #8 baylor, which should put them above #4 Cinci beating #23 Houston -- but it'll be hard to deny the undefeated team VS ~equally ranked 1L team for a Playoff.

Likely Rankings this week:
(1) Georgia
(2) Alabama
(3) Michigan
(4) Cinci
(5) OK-State
(6) Notre Dame
(7) Ohio State
(8) Baylor
(10) Oregon
(14) Iowa
(15) Pitt
(16) Wake Forest
(17) Utah

Cinci Stays IF 1 of these 3 things happens:
- Georgia beats Alabama (Georgia, Michigan, OK-State, Cinci) - 67% chance, IMO
- Iowa beats Michigan (Alabama, Georgia, OK-State, Cinci) - 35% chance, IMO
- Baylor beats OK-State (Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Cinci) - 45% chance, IMO
* One of these happening, 89.5% chance, IMO

So I think Cinci's chances are good, if they beat Houston (60% chance, IMO).

So Cinci making it -- 53.7% chance, IMO.

How’d you come up with your percentages?

(11-28-2021 07:47 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 03:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:45 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  .....just curious. Is the eye test or style points only applied to games that Cincinnati plays? For example, did Alabama pass the eye test when they lost their game to a 4 loss A&M squad? Did Bama achieve the required amount of style points when they needed 4 OT's to escape a 6 loss Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing with a backup Quarterback. This eye test, style points thing is so confusing.

You have to remember that Auburn and Texas AM are in a different league than the 4-loss and 6-loss teams Cincy plays. These teams lose to basically nobody but other SEC teams. The only non-SEC loss they have is to Penn State.

Auburn is a far more talented team than the six-loss teams Cincy plays. According to 24/7, at the start of the season, Auburn's roster had 40 guys who were rated at the 4-star or 5-star level (35 four-star, five five-star). That's as many 4* and 5* star guys as Cincy, ECU, Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF have put together. And really moreso, because those six schools have zero 5* guys, together they have 39 four-star guys.

And most other SEC teams are like this too. Lower-level SEC teams like Mississippi State and Kentucky have 19 and 21 four or five star guys.

So every week, you are playing teams with talented, physical athletes, whether the team is having a good year or not. That's draining in a way that playing Navy, ECU, Temple, USF, Tulsa, etc. week after week is not.

So Alabama squeaking by an Auburn team with that kind of talent, in front of 90,000 crazed Auburn fans (something again that AAC teams never see on the road), is not something to be denigrated.

That deserves a lot of extra consideration, IMO.

Cool story.......so what you're saying is that Bama did infact pass the eye test, smell test, and picked up style points by taking 4 OT's to survive a 6-6 Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing a backup at Quarterback. Thanks for clearing that up. This is all so confusing.

I agree. I guess beating Notre Dame on the road, scheduling a P5 in Indiana, and playing in a conference that’s usually the “P6” conference isn’t enough. Oh and they played 5 star recruit Georgia well last year.

All of a sudden now that Alabama beating Auburn, a game they were expected to win, is a good win because it went to 4OT.

Yeah those are all fair odds. Just multiply the final %’s.

Cincinnati has done more than enough. The field is so weak after UGa and potentially UM. It’s not clear cut at all. I think OSU is sitting pretty on the sideline as the best two loss. There are honestly scenarios that allow the Buckeyes back in in some crazy circumstances (UC and Bama losing perhaps).

(11-28-2021 09:42 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 07:47 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 03:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:45 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  .....just curious. Is the eye test or style points only applied to games that Cincinnati plays? For example, did Alabama pass the eye test when they lost their game to a 4 loss A&M squad? Did Bama achieve the required amount of style points when they needed 4 OT's to escape a 6 loss Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing with a backup Quarterback. This eye test, style points thing is so confusing.

You have to remember that Auburn and Texas AM are in a different league than the 4-loss and 6-loss teams Cincy plays. These teams lose to basically nobody but other SEC teams. The only non-SEC loss they have is to Penn State.

Auburn is a far more talented team than the six-loss teams Cincy plays. According to 24/7, at the start of the season, Auburn's roster had 40 guys who were rated at the 4-star or 5-star level (35 four-star, five five-star). That's as many 4* and 5* star guys as Cincy, ECU, Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF have put together. And really moreso, because those six schools have zero 5* guys, together they have 39 four-star guys.

And most other SEC teams are like this too. Lower-level SEC teams like Mississippi State and Kentucky have 19 and 21 four or five star guys.

So every week, you are playing teams with talented, physical athletes, whether the team is having a good year or not. That's draining in a way that playing Navy, ECU, Temple, USF, Tulsa, etc. week after week is not.

So Alabama squeaking by an Auburn team with that kind of talent, in front of 90,000 crazed Auburn fans (something again that AAC teams never see on the road), is not something to be denigrated.

That deserves a lot of extra consideration, IMO.

Cool story.......so what you're saying is that Bama did infact pass the eye test, smell test, and picked up style points by taking 4 OT's to survive a 6-6 Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing a backup at Quarterback. Thanks for clearing that up. This is all so confusing.

I agree. I guess beating Notre Dame on the road, scheduling a P5 in Indiana, and playing in a conference that’s usually the “P6” conference isn’t enough. Oh and they played 5 star recruit Georgia well last year.

All of a sudden now that Alabama beating Auburn, a game they were expected to win, is a good win because it went to 4OT.

Indiana was horrible this season.

Only winning teams on their schedule were ND, UCF, SMU and ECU.

Lets see if they beat Houston before we crown them.

(11-28-2021 07:47 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 03:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:45 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  .....just curious. Is the eye test or style points only applied to games that Cincinnati plays? For example, did Alabama pass the eye test when they lost their game to a 4 loss A&M squad? Did Bama achieve the required amount of style points when they needed 4 OT's to escape a 6 loss Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing with a backup Quarterback. This eye test, style points thing is so confusing.

You have to remember that Auburn and Texas AM are in a different league than the 4-loss and 6-loss teams Cincy plays. These teams lose to basically nobody but other SEC teams. The only non-SEC loss they have is to Penn State.

Auburn is a far more talented team than the six-loss teams Cincy plays. According to 24/7, at the start of the season, Auburn's roster had 40 guys who were rated at the 4-star or 5-star level (35 four-star, five five-star). That's as many 4* and 5* star guys as Cincy, ECU, Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF have put together. And really moreso, because those six schools have zero 5* guys, together they have 39 four-star guys.

And most other SEC teams are like this too. Lower-level SEC teams like Mississippi State and Kentucky have 19 and 21 four or five star guys.

So every week, you are playing teams with talented, physical athletes, whether the team is having a good year or not. That's draining in a way that playing Navy, ECU, Temple, USF, Tulsa, etc. week after week is not.

So Alabama squeaking by an Auburn team with that kind of talent, in front of 90,000 crazed Auburn fans (something again that AAC teams never see on the road), is not something to be denigrated.

That deserves a lot of extra consideration, IMO.

Cool story.......so what you're saying is that Bama did infact pass the eye test, smell test, and picked up style points by taking 4 OT's to survive a 6-6 Auburn team in the middle of a 4 game losing streak, and playing a backup at Quarterback. Thanks for clearing that up. This is all so confusing.

It shouldn't be confusing, IMO. I explained why close results vs Auburn shouldn't be compared to close results vs teams like Tulsa or Temple, etc.

(11-28-2021 08:07 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 03:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 09:48 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  Georgia is in win or lose, right?

As long as they don't lose 45-0.

They can forfeit the game and they are in. Bama, UM, UC and UGa. They’d be ahead of Okie St and ND based on track record.

I think if OK State wins, they are more deserving than Cincy.