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AuzGrams · 11-14-2021 03:22 PM

(11-14-2021 03:20 PM)Erictelevision Wrote: NO WAY IN HELL CINCINNATI IS ALLOWED IN THE CFP!

Yep, sad truth is they’re getting froze out

They better pray Alabama & Oregon lose and probably more help.

Crayton · 11-15-2021 08:34 AM

Battle of the Sims with 3 weeks of play before the field is announced.

Top Eleven
91% Georgia (E 145, C 98, F 0)
51% Alabama (E 244, C 0, F 110)
51% Notre Dame (E 30, C 117, F 0)
46% Ohio State (E 72, C 37, F 0)
43% Cincinnati (E 116, C 96, F 0)
31% Michigan (E 102, C 178, F 0)
19% OK State (E 0, C 10, F 80)
17% Oklahoma (E 105, C 0, F 28)
16% Oregon (E 17, C 0, F 146)
9% Wake Forest (E 0, C 93, F 61)
7% Mich St (E 0, C 99, F 41)

FiveThirtyEight is putting all its eggs in the Oregon basket, they believe in their #3 ranking. If the Ducks go to the playoff, 538 could be set. ESPN similarly is heavily invested in Alabama; the Tide in the playoff could set them up for a victory. It looks like my computer is leaning heavily upon Notre Dame and Michigan. My deficit in Alabama means I would need them OUT and one of ND/UM in to have any shot.

My withdraw from Oklahoma "looks" smart, but I had 130 more points invested in Iowa than ESPN and that did not turn out well. My model is also re-upping with Wake Forest, currently giving them 17% odds overall. Quite a gamble. Among the Top Eleven, above, I still have about 96% of ESPN's invested value, so I am not too far out of it.

Crayton · 11-21-2021 08:08 AM

Biggest surprise may be the 11-2 OSU/UM. They likely clock in behind a 12-1 Big 12 team, head-to-head; they just appear higher on the list because there is no 12-1 Big Ten team clogging up the playoff field in their scenario. Similarly, 11-2 Iowa likely jumps an 11-2 OSU/UM they just defeated, head-to-head.

Guarantees >95%
Win Out: Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, Cincinnati
1-loss At Large: Georgia

Contenders >66%
11-2 Alabama Champ
11-1 Notre Dame

Need Help >33%
11-2 Alabama loss to Georgia
11-2 OSU/UM winner after loss to BTWest

Longshots >5%
12-1 OK State/Oklahoma win out
11-2 Iowa Champ

Complete Chaos <5%
10-2 Ohio State, Michigan St, Michigan
10-3 Wisconsin
10-2 Ole Miss
13-0 UTSA
12-1 Cincinnati Champ

Code:

Rank (W-L) Rating TEAM (Last Week)

#1 (11-0) 34.7 Georgia (W 56-7 vs. FCS)+0

#2 (10-1) 31.6 Ohio St (W 56-7 vs. Michigan St)+0

#3 (10-1) 26.3 Alabama (W 42-35 vs. Arkansas)+0

#4 (11-0) 18.8 Cincinnati (W 48-14 vs. SMU)+1

#5 (10-1) 20.2 Notre Dame (W 55-0 vs. Georgia Tech)+1

#6 (10-1) 23.5 Michigan (W 59-18 vs. Maryland)-2

#7 (10-1) 14.4 Oklahoma (W 28-21 vs. Iowa St)+4

#8 (10-1) 15.5 OK State (W 23-0 vs. Texas Tech)+2

#9 (9-2) 15.5 Ole Miss (W 31-17 vs. Vanderbilt)-1

#10 (9-2) 12.5 Michigan St (L 7-56 vs. Ohio St)-3

#11 (11-0) 8.6 UTSA (W 34-31 vs. UAB)+4

#12 (8-3) 19.7 Wisconsin (W 35-28 vs. Nebraska)+1

#13 (9-2) 12.2 Iowa (W 33-23 vs. Illinois)+1

#14 (9-2) 13.9 Baylor (W 20-10 vs. Kansas St)+2

#15 (9-2) 16.6 Pittsburgh (W 48-38 vs. Virginia)+2

#16 (8-3) 13.9 Clemson (W 48-27 vs. Wake Forest)+5

#17 (8-3) 16.1 Texas A&M (W 52-3 vs. FCS)+3

#18 (9-2) 13.5 Wake Forest (L 27-48 vs. Clemson)-9

#19 (7-4) 11.7 Purdue (W 32-14 vs. Northwestern)+3

#20 (10-1) 8.7 Houston (W 31-13 vs. Memphis)+4

#21 (9-2) 8.6 Oregon (L 7-38 vs. Utah)-9

#22 (9-2) 7.1 BYU (W 34-17 vs. Ga Southern)-3

#23 (10-1) 1.2 San Diego St (W 28-20 vs. UNLV)+0

#24 (8-3) 15.3 NC State (W 41-17 vs. Syracuse)+1

#25 (7-4) 16.2 Penn State (W 28-0 vs. Rutgers)+1

#26 (7-4) 11.9 Arkansas (L 35-42 vs. Alabama)-8

#27 (10-1) 2 Louisiana (W 42-14 vs. Liberty)+3

#28 (7-4) 10.3 Mississippi St (W 55-10 vs. FCS)-1

#29 (8-3) 7.8 Kentucky (W 56-16 vs. New Mexico St)+3

#30 (8-3) 11.8 Utah (W 38-7 vs. Oregon)+3

#31 (9-2) 8.3 App St (W 45-7 vs. Troy)+3

#32 (7-4) 10.2 Minnesota (W 35-14 vs. Indiana)+5

#33 (6-5) 12.7 Auburn (L 17-21 vs. South Carolina)-5

#34 (7-4) 11.3 Boise St (W 37-0 vs. New Mexico)+1

#35 (6-5) 8.7 Miami (W 38-26 vs. Virginia Tech)+7

#36 (6-5) 14.4 Tennessee (W 60-14 vs. South Alabama)+8

#37 (8-3) 8 Army (W 33-17 vs. UMass)-1

#38 (8-3) 6.5 SMU (L 14-48 vs. Cincinnati)-7

#39 (8-3) 5.1 Air Force (W 41-39 vs. Nevada)+6

#40 (7-4) 6.9 UCLA (W 62-33 vs. USC)+8

#41 (6-5) 10.8 Louisville (W 62-22 vs. Duke)+5

#42 (7-4) 5 Kansas St (L 10-20 vs. Baylor)-13

#43 (6-5) 6.6 Virginia (L 38-48 vs. Pittsburgh)-5

#44 (8-3) 5.2 Fresno St ---BYE----1

#45 (6-5) 2.5 South Carolina (W 21-17 vs. Auburn)+22

#46 (6-5) 7.1 North Carolina (W 34-14 vs. FCS)+1

#47 (7-4) 6 Oregon St (W 24-10 vs. Arizona St)+15

#48 (8-3) -7 Northern Illinois (W 33-27 vs. Buffalo)+11

#49 (6-5) 10.5 Iowa St (L 21-28 vs. Oklahoma)-8

#50 (7-4) 5.5 Arizona St (L 10-24 vs. Oregon St)-11

#51 (7-4) 2.7 UCF (W 49-17 vs. UConn)+5

#52 (6-5) -1.2 Missouri (W 24-23 vs. Florida)+18

#53 (5-6) 6.1 LSU (W 27-14 vs. La Monroe)+8

#54 (7-4) 0.8 East Carolina (W 38-35 vs. Navy)+9

#55 (7-4) 5.7 WKU (W 52-17 vs. FAU)+9

#56 (5-6) 4.1 Florida St (W 26-23 vs. Boston College)+10

#57 (8-3) -3.7 Utah St (L 17-44 vs. Wyoming)-17

#58 (7-4) 1.9 UAB (L 31-34 vs. UTSA)-9

#59 (7-4) 4.3 Nevada (L 39-41 vs. Air Force)-9

#60 (5-6) -1.3 Maryland (L 18-59 vs. Michigan)-8

#61 (6-5) -3.1 Texas Tech (L 0-23 vs. OK State)-8

#62 (5-6) 5 West Virginia (W 31-23 vs. Texas)+11

#64 (5-6) 1.4 Rutgers (L 0-28 vs. Penn State)-9

#65 (4-7) 1.9 Illinois (L 23-33 vs. Iowa)-7

#66 (6-5) -0.5 Washington St (W 44-16 vs. Arizona)+3

#67 (5-6) 2.3 Syracuse (L 17-41 vs. NC State)-7

#68 (7-4) 4.1 Liberty (L 14-42 vs. Louisiana)-17

#69 (5-6) 8 Florida (L 23-24 vs. Missouri)-15

#70 (7-4) 6.6 Marshall (W 49-28 vs. Charlotte)+2

#71 (6-5) 1.9 Boston College (L 23-26 vs. Florida St)-14

#72 (5-6) -2.4 TCU (W 31-28 vs. Kansas)+2

#73 (7-4) -2.9 Central Michigan (W 37-17 vs. Ball St)+4

#74 (5-6) 2.3 Virginia Tech (L 26-38 vs. Miami)-9

#75 (6-5) -9.7 Georgia St (W 28-20 vs. Arkansas St)+3

#76 (4-7) 6.4 Texas (L 23-31 vs. West Virginia)-5

#77 (7-4) -5 Eastern Michigan (W 22-21 vs. Western Michigan)+6

#78 (3-8) 13.5 Nebraska (L 28-35 vs. Wisconsin)-2

#79 (6-5) -0.9 Miami(OH) (W 34-7 vs. Bowling Green)+1

#80 (6-5) -4.6 Western Michigan (L 21-22 vs. Eastern Michigan)-5

#81 (7-4) -9.6 UTEP (W 38-28 vs. Rice)+6

#82 (5-6) -0.3 California (W 41-11 vs. Stanford)+4

#83 (6-5) -8.7 Kent St (W 38-0 vs. Akron)+5

#84 (4-7) -3 USC (L 33-62 vs. UCLA)-5

#85 (5-6) -4.2 Tulsa (W 44-10 vs. Temple)+5

#86 (6-5) -4.9 Wyoming (W 44-17 vs. Utah St)+9

#87 (6-5) 1.4 Toledo (W 35-23 vs. Ohio)-3

#88 (5-6) -4.1 Memphis (L 13-31 vs. Houston)-7

#89 (4-7) -6.5 Colorado (W 20-17 vs. Washington)+9

#90 (5-6) -7.2 Old Dominion (W 24-17 vs. Middle Tennessee)+7

#91 (5-6) -8.7 Ball St (L 17-37 vs. Central Michigan)-9

#92 (5-6) -6.3 FAU (L 17-52 vs. WKU)-3

#93 (4-7) -1.3 Washington (L 17-20 vs. Colorado)-8

#94 (3-8) -8.6 Stanford (L 11-41 vs. California)-3

#95 (3-8) -6.1 Northwestern (L 14-32 vs. Purdue)-3

#96 (3-8) -3.8 Georgia Tech (L 0-55 vs. Notre Dame)+0

#97 (2-9) -4.4 Indiana (L 14-35 vs. Minnesota)-4

#98 (2-9) -9 Navy (L 35-38 vs. East Carolina)+2

#99 (5-6) -9.2 North Texas (W 49-7 vs. FIU)+2

#100 (5-6) -5.8 Middle Tennessee (L 17-24 vs. Old Dominion)-6

#101 (5-6) -12.9 San Jose St ---BYE---+1

#102 (5-6) -9.4 Troy (L 7-45 vs. App St)-3

#103 (5-7) -12.7 Hawaii (W 50-45 vs. Colorado St)+4

#104 (2-9) -4.3 Tulane (W 45-14 vs. USF)+14

#105 (5-6) -15.1 Charlotte (L 28-49 vs. Marshall)-2

#106 (5-6) -13 South Alabama (L 14-60 vs. Tennessee)+0

#107 (4-7) -8.2 Buffalo (L 27-33 vs. Northern Illinois)-3

#108 (3-8) -16.6 Duke (L 22-62 vs. Louisville)+0

#109 (4-7) -20.4 La Monroe (L 14-27 vs. LSU)+0

#110 (3-8) -10.4 La Tech (L 19-35 vs. Southern Miss)-5

#111 (3-8) -19.7 Rice (L 28-38 vs. UTEP)+3

#112 (3-8) -24.3 Temple (L 10-44 vs. Tulsa)+1

#113 (3-8) -7.5 Colorado St (L 45-50 vs. Hawaii)-3

#114 (3-8) -14.2 Ohio (L 23-35 vs. Toledo)-2

#115 (3-8) -19.9 New Mexico (L 0-37 vs. Boise St)+0

#116 (2-9) -21.4 Kansas (L 28-31 vs. TCU)+1

#117 (2-9) -11.9 USF (L 14-45 vs. Tulane)-6

#118 (3-8) -17.9 Bowling Green (L 7-34 vs. Miami(OH))-2

#119 (3-8) -17.8 Ga Southern (L 17-34 vs. BYU)+0

#120 (2-9) -19.1 Vanderbilt (L 17-31 vs. Ole Miss)+1

#121 (2-9) -14.8 UNLV (L 20-28 vs. San Diego St)-1

#122 (2-9) -19.2 Southern Miss (W 35-19 vs. La Tech)+4

#123 (3-8) -21.6 Texas St (L 21-35 vs. Coastal Carolina)-1

#124 (1-10) -14 Arizona (L 16-44 vs. Washington St)-1

#125 (2-9) -22.2 Arkansas St (L 20-28 vs. Georgia St)-1

#126 (2-9) -24.8 Akron (L 0-38 vs. Kent St)-1

#127 (1-10) -26.3 New Mexico St (L 16-56 vs. Kentucky)+1

#128 (1-10) -27.1 FIU (L 7-49 vs. North Texas)-1

#129 (1-10) -32.5 UMass (L 17-33 vs. Army)+0

#130 (1-10) -29.9 UConn (L 17-49 vs. UCF)+0

100% (12-0)+L  Georgia (27%)

100% (12-0)+W Georgia (70%)

100% (11-1)+W Alabama (22%)

100% (11-1)+W Michigan (29%)

100% (11-1)+W Ohio St (46%)

100% (12-0)+W Cincinnati (67%)

83% (10-2)+W Alabama (5%)

81% (11-1)      Notre Dame (96%)

44% (11-1)+L  Alabama (56%)

40% (11-1)+L  Ohio St (10%)

35% (11-1)+L  Michigan (13%)

30% (11-1)+W Oklahoma (17%)

21% (11-1)+W OK State (36%)

11% (10-2)+W Iowa (3%)

2% (10-2)      Ohio St (42%)

1% (9-3)+W Wisconsin (18%)

1% (10-2)      Michigan St (60%)

0% (10-2)      Michigan (57%)

0% (10-2)      Ole Miss (60%)

0% (12-0)+W UTSA (64%)

0% (11-1)+W Cincinnati (10%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP SEC (70%)

100% 1-loss at large SEC (27%)

100% 1-loss CHAMP SEC (23%)

100% 1-loss CHAMP Big Ten (75%)

100% 0-loss CHAMP AAC (67%)

83% 2-loss CHAMP SEC (5%)

24% 1-loss CHAMP Big 12 (53%)

21% 2-loss at large SEC (117%)

11% 2-loss CHAMP Big Ten (3%)

5% 2-loss at large Big Ten (225%)

1% 3-loss CHAMP Big Ten (18%)

0% 0-loss CHAMP CUSA (64%)

0% 1-loss CHAMP AAC (32%)

Playoff %

1) 99.59% Georgia

2) 78.18% Notre Dame

3) 67.83% Cincinnati

4) 52.6% Alabama

5) 52.34% Ohio St

6) 34.34% Michigan

7) 7.76% OK State

8) 5.51% Oklahoma

9) 0.72% Michigan St

10) 0.42% Iowa

11) 0.24% Ole Miss

12) 0.24% UTSA

13) 0.23% Wisconsin

Top G5 Champ %

1) 71.55% Cincinnati

2) 20.88% UTSA

3) 5.37% Houston

4) 2.16% San Diego St

5) 0.04% Louisiana

5-1-2 TEAM (WCG) *8th spot*

99.69% Georgia (0/0) *2809*

82.52% Alabama (0/0) *5412*

79.7% Ohio St (2896/4040) *398*

72.08% Cincinnati (0/0) *53*

56.17% OK State (0/0) *1*

54.14% Pittsburgh (0/0) *0*

53.47% Utah (0/0) *0*

49.86% Notre Dame (4573/9695) *413*

47.18% Michigan (1126/1977) *681*

42.57% Oregon (0/0) *0*

34.99% Wake Forest (0/0) *0*

23.37% Baylor (1/2) *0*

20.88% UTSA (0/0) *0*

20.49% Oklahoma (0/3) *1*

18.92% Wisconsin (0/0) *0*

10.74% Michigan St (967/3064) *107*

8.3% Clemson (0/0) *0*

5.38% Ole Miss (424/1189) *114*

5.37% Houston (0/0) *0*

4.01% Iowa (13/30) *11*

3.96% Oregon St (0/0) *0*

2.57% NC State (0/0) *0*

2.16% San Diego St (0/0) *0*

1.44% Minnesota (0/0) *0*

0.04% Louisiana (0/0) *0*

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 BYE

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Florida

B:7160 C:0 A:2840 H:2836 X:0 Georgia

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Tennessee

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 South Carolina

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Kentucky

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Missouri

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Vanderbilt

B:2831 C:9 A:7095 H:6137 X:0 Alabama

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 LSU

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Auburn

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Arkansas

B:0 C:0 A:6712 H:2897 X:0 Ole Miss

B:0 C:0 A:27 H:0 X:0 Texas A&M

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Mississippi St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Florida St

B:71 C:678 A:370 H:17 X:81 Clemson

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Boston College

B:924 C:2573 A:2 H:265 X:2 Wake Forest

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Louisville

B:2 C:181 A:6 H:1 X:74 NC State

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Syracuse

B:273 C:3986 A:0 H:122 X:1155 Pittsburgh

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Miami

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Georgia Tech

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Virginia Tech

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Virginia

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 North Carolina

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Duke

B:0 C:0 A:9971 H:9309 X:0 Notre Dame

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Maryland

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Penn State

B:2911 C:0 A:7089 H:5923 X:0 Michigan

B:0 C:0 A:6711 H:4991 X:0 Michigan St

B:4676 C:0 A:5324 H:5208 X:0 Ohio St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Rutgers

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Indiana

B:1606 C:284 A:2187 H:76 X:2 Wisconsin

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Illinois

B:0 C:0 A:16 H:0 X:0 Purdue

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Northwestern

B:2 C:96 A:0 H:0 X:46 Minnesota

B:349 C:27 A:3826 H:226 X:1 Iowa

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Nebraska

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 West Virginia

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Kansas

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Kansas St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Iowa St

B:1871 C:177 A:3015 H:69 X:0 Oklahoma

B:4276 C:1337 A:1793 H:250 X:3 OK State

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 TCU

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Texas

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Texas Tech

B:685 C:1605 A:509 H:29 X:46 Baylor

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Colorado

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Arizona

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Arizona St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 USC

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UCLA

B:0 C:569 A:0 H:0 X:4778 Utah

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 California

B:310 C:3048 A:0 H:33 X:899 Oregon

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:396 Oregon St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Stanford

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Washington

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Washington St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UConn

B:7444 C:338 A:1818 H:700 X:0 Cincinnati

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 USF

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UCF

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Temple

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 East Carolina

B:59 C:1422 A:0 H:0 X:737 Houston

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 SMU

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Memphis

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Tulsa

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Tulane

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Navy

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 BYU

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:767 Air Force

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Colorado St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Wyoming

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 New Mexico

B:0 C:4 A:0 H:0 X:2849 Boise St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1286 Utah St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UNLV

B:30 C:1351 A:0 H:0 X:1976 San Diego St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Nevada

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1737 Fresno St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Hawaii

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 San Jose St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 La Tech

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UTEP

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Rice

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 North Texas

B:4520 C:2328 A:2 H:911 X:389 UTSA

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UAB

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Southern Miss

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Old Dominion

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1041 WKU

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Charlotte

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1722 Marshall

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Middle Tennessee

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 FIU

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 FAU

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Army

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 UMass

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Buffalo

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Ohio

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Bowling Green

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:1676 Kent St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:2965 Miami(OH)

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Akron

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Central Michigan

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Western Michigan

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:5359 Northern Illinois

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Toledo

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Ball St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Eastern Michigan

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Liberty

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 New Mexico St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Troy

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Arkansas St

B:0 C:586 A:0 H:0 X:3506 Louisiana

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 La Monroe

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 South Alabama

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Texas St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Georgia St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Ga Southern

B:0 C:88 A:0 H:0 X:5820 App St

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 Coastal Carolina

B:0 C:0 A:0 H:0 X:0 --

Native Georgian · 11-21-2021 10:56 AM

I have believed for several weeks now that while an undefeated Cincinnati would get skipped over in favor of a P5 team with just 1 loss, it will not be skipped over in favor of a team with 2 losses. So Oregon’s loss to Utah last night is really huge for the Bearcats.

Now, the only way an undefeated Cincinnati gets left out is if Alabama beats Auburn and Georgia, and both B1G and BXII have champions with 1 loss. I’ll acknowledge that’s really not such a far-fetched scenario, but I think the chances are less than 50/50.

Crayton · 11-21-2021 12:58 PM

(11-21-2021 10:56 AM)Native Georgian Wrote: I have believed for several weeks now that while an undefeated Cincinnati would get skipped over in favor of a P5 team with just 1 loss, it will not be skipped over in favor of a team with 2 losses. So Oregon’s loss to Utah last night is really huge for the Bearcats.

Now, the only way an undefeated Cincinnati gets left out is if Alabama beats Auburn and Georgia, and both B1G and BXII have champions with 1 loss. I’ll acknowledge that’s really not such a far-fetched scenario, but I think the chances are less than 50/50.

I will need to review my algorithm this offseason. Right now when you defeat a team there is a balance between the benefit of the win and the deficit caused by your opponent losing. BUT, when you play a team in a rematch you get the benefit once but the deficit is applied to 2 teams on your schedule.

This particularly affects the Big 12. I will want to examine to see whether this effect is adverse or appropriate. I can’t tell whether the absence of a 2-loss Big 12 Champ from the above list is due to their weaker schedule or this double deficit thing.

AuzGrams · 11-21-2021 01:22 PM

Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

quo vadis · 11-21-2021 01:28 PM

(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

BePcr07 · 11-21-2021 01:39 PM

(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

Still a lot of football left to play. Alabama finishing 10-3 is not farfetched. Cincinnati losing 1 or even 2 games to Houston is not terribly unlikely. Ohio St beating Michigan then losing to the West Division champion is not an impossible scenario. A lot can happen.

quo vadis · 11-21-2021 01:41 PM

(11-21-2021 01:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

Still a lot of football left to play. Alabama finishing 10-3 is not farfetched. Cincinnati losing 1 or even 2 games to Houston is not terribly unlikely. Ohio St beating Michigan then losing to the West Division champion is not an impossible scenario. A lot can happen.

Cincy would only play Houston once, in the CCG.

That's Cincy's big advantage over all the other contenders - no tough games left, and really no tough games all season, save for Notre Dame.

I mean think about it. Ohio State looks better than Cincy. To make the playoffs, they are going to have to beat Michigan and Wisconsin. Alabama will have to beat Auburn and Georgia.

Cincy plays ECU and Houston. That doesn't compute, IMO.

stever20 · 11-21-2021 01:43 PM

(11-21-2021 01:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

Still a lot of football left to play. Alabama finishing 10-3 is not farfetched. Cincinnati losing 1 or even 2 games to Houston is not terribly unlikely. Ohio St beating Michigan then losing to the West Division champion is not an impossible scenario. A lot can happen.

Cincy would only play Houston once, in the CCG.

That's Cincy's big advantage over all the other contenders - no tough games left, and really no tough games all season, save for Notre Dame.

I mean think about it. Ohio State looks better than Cincy. To make the playoffs, they are going to have to beat Michigan and Wisconsin. Alabama will have to beat Auburn and Georgia.

Cincy plays ECU and Houston. That doesn't compute, IMO.

who exactly has Notre Dame played?

AuzGrams · 11-21-2021 01:44 PM

(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

12-1 OK State
Ranked: OU, Baylor x2
Bowl Teams: Texas Tech, Kansas State, Boise State, probably WVU
Common Win: Tulsa

13-0 Cincinnati
Ranked: Notre Dame, Houston
Bowl Teams: SMU, UCF, ECU, Miami (OH), probably Memphis
Common Win: Tulsa

11-1 Notre Dame
Ranked: Wisconsin
Bowl Teams: Purdue, North Carolina, Virginia, Toledo, maybe VT or FSU

Cincy over OK State is a no brainer. OK State needs a Alabama or B1G East loss in Indianapolis, or Cincinnati losing.

stever20 · 11-21-2021 01:50 PM

(11-21-2021 01:44 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

12-1 OK State
Ranked: OUx2, Baylor
Bowl Teams: Texas Tech, Boise State, probably WVU
Common Win: Tulsa

13-0 Cincinnati
Ranked: Notre Dame, Houston
Bowl Teams: SMU, UCF, ECU, Miami (OH), probably Memphis
Common Win: Tulsa

11-1 Notre Dame
Ranked: Wisconsin
Bowl Teams: Purdue, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Toledo

Cincy over OK State is a no brainer. OK State needs a Alabama or B1G East loss in Indianapolis, or Cincinnati losing.

If Oklahoma St beats Oklahoma, if Baylor wins next weekend, it'd be OSU vs Baylor in the CCG, not OSU vs Oklahoma.

BePcr07 · 11-21-2021 01:52 PM

(11-21-2021 01:44 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

12-1 OK State
Ranked: OU, Baylor x2
Bowl Teams: Texas Tech, Boise State, probably WVU
Common Win: Tulsa

13-0 Cincinnati
Ranked: Notre Dame, Houston
Bowl Teams: SMU, UCF, ECU, Miami (OH), probably Memphis
Common Win: Tulsa

11-1 Notre Dame
Ranked: Wisconsin
Bowl Teams: Purdue, North Carolina, Virginia, Toledo, maybe VT or FSU

Cincy over OK State is a no brainer. OK State needs a Alabama or B1G East loss in Indianapolis, or Cincinnati losing.

My vote would be Cincinnati but I can see this being a very difficult decision between Cincinnati and Oklahoma St.

AuzGrams · 11-21-2021 01:54 PM

(11-21-2021 01:52 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:44 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

12-1 OK State
Ranked: OU, Baylor x2
Bowl Teams: Texas Tech, Boise State, probably WVU
Common Win: Tulsa

13-0 Cincinnati
Ranked: Notre Dame, Houston
Bowl Teams: SMU, UCF, ECU, Miami (OH), probably Memphis
Common Win: Tulsa

11-1 Notre Dame
Ranked: Wisconsin
Bowl Teams: Purdue, North Carolina, Virginia, Toledo, maybe VT or FSU

Cincy over OK State is a no brainer. OK State needs a Alabama or B1G East loss in Indianapolis, or Cincinnati losing.

My vote would be Cincinnati but I can see this being a very difficult decision between Cincinnati and Oklahoma St.

It’s not difficult at all to me when their resumes are very similar & OK State has an extra loss in the loss column.

BePcr07 · 11-21-2021 01:56 PM

(11-21-2021 01:54 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:52 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:44 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

12-1 OK State
Ranked: OU, Baylor x2
Bowl Teams: Texas Tech, Boise State, probably WVU
Common Win: Tulsa

13-0 Cincinnati
Ranked: Notre Dame, Houston
Bowl Teams: SMU, UCF, ECU, Miami (OH), probably Memphis
Common Win: Tulsa

11-1 Notre Dame
Ranked: Wisconsin
Bowl Teams: Purdue, North Carolina, Virginia, Toledo, maybe VT or FSU

Cincy over OK State is a no brainer. OK State needs a Alabama or B1G East loss in Indianapolis, or Cincinnati losing.

My vote would be Cincinnati but I can see this being a very difficult decision between Cincinnati and Oklahoma St.

It’s not difficult at all to me when their resumes are very similar & OK State has an extra loss in the loss column.

That’s why we don’t have a 1-person committee! Any single opinion may vary greatly from person-to-person.

quo vadis · 11-21-2021 03:05 PM

(11-21-2021 01:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

Still a lot of football left to play. Alabama finishing 10-3 is not farfetched. Cincinnati losing 1 or even 2 games to Houston is not terribly unlikely. Ohio St beating Michigan then losing to the West Division champion is not an impossible scenario. A lot can happen.

Cincy would only play Houston once, in the CCG.

That's Cincy's big advantage over all the other contenders - no tough games left, and really no tough games all season, save for Notre Dame.

I mean think about it. Ohio State looks better than Cincy. To make the playoffs, they are going to have to beat Michigan and Wisconsin. Alabama will have to beat Auburn and Georgia.

Cincy plays ECU and Houston. That doesn't compute, IMO.

who exactly has Notre Dame played?

Wisconsin.

But Notre Dame is lucky to be 10-1. They could have easily lost their first three games. Very fortunate to beat FSU, Toledo (!!) and VT.

quo vadis · 11-21-2021 03:09 PM

(11-21-2021 01:44 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

12-1 OK State
Ranked: OU, Baylor x2
Bowl Teams: Texas Tech, Kansas State, Boise State, probably WVU
Common Win: Tulsa

13-0 Cincinnati
Ranked: Notre Dame, Houston
Bowl Teams: SMU, UCF, ECU, Miami (OH), probably Memphis
Common Win: Tulsa

11-1 Notre Dame
Ranked: Wisconsin
Bowl Teams: Purdue, North Carolina, Virginia, Toledo, maybe VT or FSU

Cincy over OK State is a no brainer. OK State needs a Alabama or B1G East loss in Indianapolis, or Cincinnati losing.

To me, you have to look at strength of schedule. "Bowl teams" mean nothing, because any team can get to 6-6 by beating other bad teams in a soft conference.

Right now, OK State's SOS is #26 in Sagarin. Cincy's is #94. That alone negates the one-loss difference to me. And from here on out, OK State's schedule is going to be much tougher still.

That's Cincy's huge edge in all this - a paper thin schedule, no challenges, while other contenders are facing very tough teams.

AuzGrams · 11-21-2021 03:21 PM

(11-21-2021 03:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:44 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

12-1 OK State
Ranked: OU, Baylor x2
Bowl Teams: Texas Tech, Kansas State, Boise State, probably WVU
Common Win: Tulsa

13-0 Cincinnati
Ranked: Notre Dame, Houston
Bowl Teams: SMU, UCF, ECU, Miami (OH), probably Memphis
Common Win: Tulsa

11-1 Notre Dame
Ranked: Wisconsin
Bowl Teams: Purdue, North Carolina, Virginia, Toledo, maybe VT or FSU

Cincy over OK State is a no brainer. OK State needs a Alabama or B1G East loss in Indianapolis, or Cincinnati losing.

To me, you have to look at strength of schedule. "Bowl teams" mean nothing, because any team can get to 6-6 by beating other bad teams in a soft conference.

Right now, OK State's SOS is #26 in Sagarin. Cincy's is #94. That alone negates the one-loss difference to me. And from here on out, OK State's schedule is going to be much tougher still.

That's Cincy's huge edge in all this - a paper thin schedule, no challenges, while other contenders are facing very tough teams.

Cincinnati SOS will get better. 7-4 ECU, 11-1 Houston. While Oklahoma State will have a repeat matchup in Arlington.

quo vadis · 11-21-2021 03:29 PM

(11-21-2021 03:21 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:
(11-21-2021 03:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:44 PM)AuzGrams Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:28 PM)quo vadis Wrote:
(11-21-2021 01:22 PM)AuzGrams Wrote: Alabama going 11-2 over a 12-1 OK State is a joke. The Pokes have played a reasonably tough schedule.

I'd put a 12-1 OK State in over Cincy.

But nobody's asking me, LOL.

12-1 OK State
Ranked: OU, Baylor x2
Bowl Teams: Texas Tech, Kansas State, Boise State, probably WVU
Common Win: Tulsa

13-0 Cincinnati
Ranked: Notre Dame, Houston
Bowl Teams: SMU, UCF, ECU, Miami (OH), probably Memphis
Common Win: Tulsa

11-1 Notre Dame
Ranked: Wisconsin
Bowl Teams: Purdue, North Carolina, Virginia, Toledo, maybe VT or FSU

Cincy over OK State is a no brainer. OK State needs a Alabama or B1G East loss in Indianapolis, or Cincinnati losing.

To me, you have to look at strength of schedule. "Bowl teams" mean nothing, because any team can get to 6-6 by beating other bad teams in a soft conference.

Right now, OK State's SOS is #26 in Sagarin. Cincy's is #94. That alone negates the one-loss difference to me. And from here on out, OK State's schedule is going to be much tougher still.

That's Cincy's huge edge in all this - a paper thin schedule, no challenges, while other contenders are facing very tough teams.

Cincinnati SOS will get better. 7-4 ECU, 11-1 Houston. While Oklahoma State will have a repeat matchup in Arlington.

The computers say ECU and Houston are #65 and #26, respectively.

In contrast, Oklahoma is #8 and Baylor (CCG) is #10.

That's a lot tougher than Cincy.

Crayton · 11-23-2021 12:02 AM

Full run-down of 6+6 chances

Guaranteed >95%
100% Georgia (71% bye, 0% champ, 28% at large, 28% home)
100% Michigan (29% bye, 0% champ, 70% at large, 59% home)
100% Ohio St (46% bye, 0% champ, 53% at large, 52% home)
99% Notre Dame (0% bye, 0% champ, 99% at large, 93% home)
99% Alabama (28% bye, 0.09% champ, 70% at large, 61% home)
96% Cincinnati (74% bye, 3% champ, 18% at large, 7% home)
Contenders >66%
74% OK State (42% bye, 13% champ, 17% at large, 2% home)
68% UTSA (45% bye, 23% champ, 0.02% at large, 9% home)
67% Ole Miss (0% bye, 0% champ, 67% at large, 28% home)
67% Michigan St (0% bye, 0% champ, 67% at large, 49% home)
Need Help >33%
50% Oklahoma (18% bye, 1% champ, 30% at large, 0.69% home)
42% Pittsburgh (2% bye, 39% champ, 0% at large, 1% home)
42% Iowa (3% bye, 0.27% champ, 38% at large, 2% home)
40% Wisconsin (16% bye, 2% champ, 21% at large, 0.76% home)
34% Wake Forest (9% bye, 25% champ, 0.02% at large, 2% home)
33% Oregon (3% bye, 30% champ, 0% at large, 0.33% home)
Longshots >5%
27% Baylor (6% bye, 16% champ, 5% at large, 0.29% home)
14% Houston (0.59% bye, 14% champ, 0% at large, 0% home)
13% San Diego St (0.3% bye, 13% champ, 0% at large, 0% home)
11% Clemson (0.71% bye, 6% champ, 3% at large, 0.17% home)
5% Louisiana (0% bye, 5% champ, 0% at large, 0% home)
5% Utah (0% bye, 5% champ, 0% at large, 0% home)
Callers of Chaos <5%
1.89% NC State (0.02% bye, 1.81% champ, 0.06% at large, 0.01% home)
0.98% Minnesota (0.02% bye, 0.96% champ, 0% at large, 0% home)
0.88% App St (0% bye, 0.88% champ, 0% at large, 0% home)
0.27% Texas A&M (0% bye, 0% champ, 0.27% at large, 0% home)
0.16% Purdue (0% bye, 0% champ, 0.16% at large, 0% home)
0.4% Boise St (0% bye, 0.04% champ, 0% at large, 0% home)

*note, "champ" means a champion who is playing in the first-round, including 7th champions who are also ranked in the Top 12 (happens about 7% of the time)

ya, ya, UTSA gets more love from this algorithm than other would. I'm sure it is only a matter or time before I rewrite the portion of this algorithm that gives auto-bids to the Power Five.

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