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(11-28-2021 02:04 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If we are 3 this week it’s win and we are in. We are going to be 4.

The committee is not going to jump Alabama with a tight win to Auburn in the Iron Bowl because we beat ECU. I doubt most of the committee knows what state ECU is in.

I'm pretty sure it's in East Carolina... right?

(11-28-2021 02:36 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  UC jumps Bama in the AP poll.

Houston jumps three spots to #16. Too bad their CFP ranking isn't more similar. They should bump up from #24 after losses from #10 Oklahoma, #14 Wisky [4 losses], #15 TXAM [4 losses] and #22 UTSA.

(11-28-2021 03:04 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 02:36 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  UC jumps Bama in the AP poll.

Houston jumps three spots to #16. Too bad their CFP ranking isn't more similar. They should bump up from #24 after losses from #10 Oklahoma, #14 Wisky [4 losses], #15 TXAM [4 losses] and #22 UTSA.

Houston will only go up 1 spot. Gotta be able to drop them out in the final poll.

(11-28-2021 03:13 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 03:04 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 02:36 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  UC jumps Bama in the AP poll.

Houston jumps three spots to #16. Too bad their CFP ranking isn't more similar. They should bump up from #24 after losses from #10 Oklahoma, #14 Wisky [4 losses], #15 TXAM [4 losses] and #22 UTSA.

Houston will only go up 1 spot. Gotta be able to drop them out in the final poll.

Barta: The committee respects Houston but who have they played...

That said, Houston has won eleven in a row since the TT meltdown. It could be worse [e.g., 8-4].

I ran the ESPN playoff predictor scenario where Alabama, OK State, Michigan, and Cincinnati all win this weekend and their odds to make it after that were:

Alabama
97%
Georgia
95%
Michigan
83%
Cincinnati
74%
Notre Dame
27%
Ok State
24%

Like I said, pay close attention to where 2-loss Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Ok State get slotted tomorrow night. Will tell us a lot.

(11-28-2021 01:22 PM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:16 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:15 PM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:07 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 12:56 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Like Mark has said, even if all 3 of those games go against our favor we still may be preferred over OK State. I don't want to sweat it out either but they're worse than us (by quite a bit) in the computer rankings. Their resume is entirely unimpressive. They didn't play a P5 team in non conference. And they have a ton of close results. Pay close attention to where they slot ND, OK State, and OSU this week.

They will have played 7 more P5 teams than UC. They will have beaten more ranked teams than UC, 2 of which that were in the top 10 the 2 weeks before the selection show. Their SOS is more than 90 spots higher than ours. Read that last sentance again.

I don’t think there is much of a question OK ST jumps us after they beat Baylor. The committee showed with Oregon that losing to one cruddy team doesn’t matter as long as you have a tough SOS and have wins against highly ranked teams.

Alabama losing next weekend is the key. Same as it’s been for a long time, IMO.

Bama isn’t beating Georgia.

Based on how both teams have played the last month I should agree with you, but hard to bet against Saban in these kind of games.

Honestly if Georgia loses they shouldn’t be in either. The SEC east isn’t good. At some point you have to reward undefeated teams and conference championships.

The SEC East is good. It's not great, but it IS good. Everyone except Vanderbilt is going to a bowl game

And outside the SEC East, Georgia beat #22 Clemson, #22 Arkansas, 6-6 Auburn, 8-4 UAB, and a road win in a rivalry game against Georgia Tech.

Georgia has 3 wins over opponents who are currently ranked. That's more than Michigan (1), Cincinnati (1), Notre Dame (0), or Oklahoma State (2).

(11-28-2021 03:30 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 03:13 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 03:04 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 02:36 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  UC jumps Bama in the AP poll.

Houston jumps three spots to #16. Too bad their CFP ranking isn't more similar. They should bump up from #24 after losses from #10 Oklahoma, #14 Wisky [4 losses], #15 TXAM [4 losses] and #22 UTSA.

Houston will only go up 1 spot. Gotta be able to drop them out in the final poll.

Barta: The committee respects Houston but who have they played...

That said, Houston has won eleven in a row since the TT meltdown. It could be worse [e.g., 8-4].

TBF to the committee, I just took a look @ Houston's schedule. They had non conference games against Grambling, UConn and Rice. Geesh, that is terrible. Then throw in the fact that they lost to Texas Tech, who went 3-6 in the Big XII and that's not a good look. Sure, they went undefeated in the conference, but this is a total down year for the AAC (which sucks for Cincy.)

Houston was up 21-7 on Texas Tech and then imploded in the 2nd half and lost 38-21. Maybe the 2nd half was an anomaly and they are a good team, but at the end of the day, they lost to TT and that's all the committee can go on.

CBS moved us up to #2 in their power rankings and says win and we're in...Hope they are right.

With only two undefeated teams left, Cincinnati is safely in the top four. Win (vs. Houston the AAC title game) and the Bearcats are in the CFP. Cincinnati overwhelmed East Carolina to go to 12-0 for the first time since somebody named Brian Kelly won the Big East in 2009. Beat the Cougars, and the first Group of Five team in history will play for a national title.

Ten wins or more 4 years in a row. How often does that happen?

Have you seen the new Disney+ bundle commercial? Bearcats are the feature visual for the few seconds advertising college football coverage. Pretty cool!

Fick announcing for ND, or obviously just waiting to announce, may well impact the committee's view on UC. I think we would be out regardless of what might happen on the field this weekend. Think UC at the Sugar Bowl...

(11-30-2021 09:00 AM)cmhcat Wrote:  Fick announcing for ND, or obviously just waiting to announce, may well impact the committee's view on UC. I think we would be out regardless of what might happen on the field this weekend. Think UC at the Sugar Bowl...

UC wins they are in. Beating Houston is all that matters.

(11-30-2021 09:00 AM)cmhcat Wrote:  Fick announcing for ND, or obviously just waiting to announce, may well impact the committee's view on UC. I think we would be out regardless of what might happen on the field this weekend. Think UC at the Sugar Bowl...

Remember it well. Kelly told staff come now or forget it. Quinn had taken the Buffalo HC job and stayed along with 2 others.

Mardy Gilyard said "we can coach ourselves". Nice thought, dumb idea.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-predictor

On ESPN’s interactive predictor, there is no combination of games this weekend that if UC wins give them less that a 73% chance of getting into the playoff. Almost all combinations are <90%.

(11-30-2021 09:33 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-predictor

On ESPN’s interactive predictor, there is no combination of games this weekend that if UC wins give them less that a 73% chance of getting into the playoff. Almost all combinations are <90%.

The projections, the experts and the public at large are far more confident we'll stay ahead of Oklahoma State than the Bearcat fanbase.

(11-30-2021 09:35 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 09:33 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-predictor

On ESPN’s interactive predictor, there is no combination of games this weekend that if UC wins give them less that a 73% chance of getting into the playoff. Almost all combinations are <90%.

The projections, the experts and the public at large are far more confident we'll stay ahead of Oklahoma State than the Bearcat fanbase.

If Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan beats Iowa, and OSU beats Baylor I would honestly be surprised if we made it in. I don't mean that as a conspiracy person but each of those schools would have some very recent very good wins against very good teams.

If we come out and dominate Houston and OSU squeaks out a win I think we stay ahead but if it's the opposite I could see us being jumped.

That was the low combination of games... predictor only gave that a 2% chance of happening but gave UC a 73% chance of making the CFP even if it did.

(11-30-2021 09:35 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 09:33 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-predictor

On ESPN’s interactive predictor, there is no combination of games this weekend that if UC wins give them less that a 73% chance of getting into the playoff. Almost all combinations are <90%.

The projections, the experts and the public at large are far more confident we'll stay ahead of Oklahoma State than the Bearcat fanbase.

The most Cincinnati thing ever

(11-30-2021 09:56 AM)Sweetness Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 09:35 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 09:33 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-predictor

On ESPN’s interactive predictor, there is no combination of games this weekend that if UC wins give them less that a 73% chance of getting into the playoff. Almost all combinations are <90%.

The projections, the experts and the public at large are far more confident we'll stay ahead of Oklahoma State than the Bearcat fanbase.

If Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan beats Iowa, and OSU beats Baylor I would honestly be surprised if we made it in. I don't mean that as a conspiracy person but each of those schools would have some very recent very good wins against very good teams.

If we come out and dominate Houston and OSU squeaks out a win I think we stay ahead but if it's the opposite I could see us being jumped.

I would be nervous as hell, but my point is that nearly every expert and projection system disagree and think the Bearcats would stay ahead. I really don't want it to come down to that, but I think the most likely scenario is we would still make it.

(11-30-2021 10:14 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 09:56 AM)Sweetness Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 09:35 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-30-2021 09:33 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/...-predictor

On ESPN’s interactive predictor, there is no combination of games this weekend that if UC wins give them less that a 73% chance of getting into the playoff. Almost all combinations are <90%.

The projections, the experts and the public at large are far more confident we'll stay ahead of Oklahoma State than the Bearcat fanbase.

If Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan beats Iowa, and OSU beats Baylor I would honestly be surprised if we made it in. I don't mean that as a conspiracy person but each of those schools would have some very recent very good wins against very good teams.

If we come out and dominate Houston and OSU squeaks out a win I think we stay ahead but if it's the opposite I could see us being jumped.

I would be nervous as hell, but my point is that nearly every expert and projection system disagree and think the Bearcats would stay ahead. I really don't want it to come down to that, but I think the most likely scenario is we would still make it.

I feel UC is in with a win. But I want UC to destroy Houston and Bama, Oklahoma State, and Michigan to all lose. 13-0 is still my goal regardless.