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2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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Exclamation 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
I thought this topic deserved its own thread since the Committee will release the first rankings on Tuesday, November 2nd at 7 PM. There is a lot of information and opinion out there now. From Jerry "Purdue" Palm...

Quote:With the initial College Football Playoff Rankings for the 2021 season set to be released next Tuesday night, we do not want to wait that long to get a taste of how the CFP Selection Committee will be ranking the top 25 teams in the nation. This is a warm up act for the warm up act, which are all of the CFP Rankings releases before the final one after conference championship week.

Now that the COVID-19 pandemic is no longer playing havoc with schedules as it did last season, we are back to the committee use its regular criteria. Here are some of key points those members decide when ranking teams besides overall record:

Strength of schedule
Conference championships (when decided)
Head-to-head
Results vs. common opponents
Results vs. ranked opponents

Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than what you're used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week's CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked when the games were played either in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine "ranked opponents". In fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.

Notice that "game control" is not listed in the criteria. It never has been considered despite the term coming out of the mouth of the committee chairman at times. I was able to ask about that specifically at a mock CFP Selection Committee exercise I attended in October only to be met with blank stares as if they had never heard the term used. (The CFP does have a way to measure "game control" – I saw the data – but they do not talk about it.)

With all of that in mind, here is how the CFP Rankings would look if released this week. These rankings are top heavy with SEC and BIg Ten teams only because they have not weeded each other out yet.

1 Georgia
2 Michigan
3 Alabama
4 Ohio St
5 Cincinnati - This would be the highest-ever ranking for a Group of Five team, but the Bearcats have earned it. Navy was the first team to give them much trouble this season. Their win at Notre Dame will have to hold up if this ranking has any chance of going higher.
6 Oklahoma
7 Michigan St
8 Ole Miss
9 Notre Dame
10 Oregon

More Details Here
 
10-26-2021 05:15 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
From Sporting News...

Quote:Do the rankings matter? Consider this statistic: 16 of the 28 teams that were in the top four in the initial set of CFP rankings the last seven seasons went on to make the CFP. Last year, all four teams went on to the Playoff. The lowest ranked teams to work their way back into the playoff? Ohio State was initially ranked No. 16 in 2014 and got in. Oklahoma started at No. 15 and went to the playoff in 2015.

Still, the committee is going to have to grapple with the following four debates in the first set of rankings, and perhaps to the end:

Where will Cincinnati be ranked?
The Bearcats opened at No. 7 in the CFP rankings last year and finished at No. 8 despite not losing a game.

Assuming Cincinnati takes care of business against Tulane on Saturday, they would likely maintain their spot at No. 2 in the AP Poll. The CFP rankings rarely match the AP, however. If the committee puts Cincinnati in the top four to start, then what would be the justification for knocking them down?

This is about the time when CFP chairman Gary Barta starts talking about a “starting with a blank canvas each week", one that could hurt the Bearcats’ strength of schedule down the line.

Cincinnati should pay attention to where Notre Dame and SMU are ranked and hope the Irish and Mustangs keep winning, but ultimately that might not matter. They need Oregon to take a second loss and the Big Ten to become dysfunctional in November to have a chance.

How will they address Ohio State-Oregon?
Ohio State and Oregon both have one loss. The Ducks beat the Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium 35-28 on Sept. 11, but Ohio State is ranked two spots higher in the AP Poll.

Does that head-to-head matter? Oregon should be ranked ahead of Ohio State in the first set of rankings based on that head-to-head victory, but there is the notion that the Buckeyes are the better team right now.

Ohio State leads the FBS with an offense that averages 49.3 points and 559.7 yards per game. The Buckeyes also have a string of ranked Big Ten opponents left on the schedule, including Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan and perhaps Iowa in the Big Ten championship game.

Oregon, meanwhile, might not face another ranked opponent the rest of the season. The Ducks should be ranked ahead of the Buckeyes based on that victory, but this debate isn’t going away.

Will there be 'SEC bias?'
We hear that dreaded term every year, but brace yourselves for the following realities.

If Georgia beats Florida, then the Bulldogs will be No. 1. Alabama, which has a bye week, will probably be ranked No. 2 despite the loss to Texas A&M.

Ole Miss, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Auburn will all be ranked higher in the CFP rankings than they will be in the AP Poll. The Rebels could be as high as No. 6 if they beat the Tigers on Saturday knowing they have the one loss to Alabama. The SEC likely will have the most teams in the top-10.

Is this “SEC bias?” It’s more a reflection of the committee’s past treatment of the conference in the rankings. The SEC contenders will be ranked ahead of the Big Ten contenders if the records are equal.

Should two-loss teams bother watching?
It’s too early for that, but keep in mind that no two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff. We mentioned Cincinnati, and no Group of 5 team has made the playoff. San Diego State, SMU and UTSA are also unbeaten, but those teams are not making the four-team playoff.

It really comes down to that group of teams with one loss or less. Michigan plays Michigan State in Week 9, which will automatically drop the number of Power 5 unbeatens down to four. Georgia, Oklahoma and Wake Forest are the others remaining.

It will be interesting to see how the committee treats the ACC, which doesn’t have Clemson in the mix, and the Big 12, which is Oklahoma-or-bust at this point. A one-loss Sooners team also would be thrown into that messy debate given their string of close calls in 2021.

Keep that in mind as the season barrels into November. It’s unlikely that a team with two losses gets in, and these teams have to react to that pressure.

Four Questions That Need Answered
 
10-26-2021 05:28 PM
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Dannyboy Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
So they’re going to screw us to protect their paymasters. Got it.

It would be hilarious if GA lost to FL and we were #1 in the polls and #7 in the committee rankings. I hope it happens. Expose the fraud
 
10-26-2021 06:18 PM
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rtaylor Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
(10-26-2021 05:15 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  I thought this topic deserved its own thread since the Committee will release the first rankings on Tuesday, November 2nd at 7 PM. There is a lot of information and opinion out there now. From Jerry "Purdue" Palm...

Quote:With the initial College Football Playoff Rankings for the 2021 season set to be released next Tuesday night, we do not want to wait that long to get a taste of how the CFP Selection Committee will be ranking the top 25 teams in the nation. This is a warm up act for the warm up act, which are all of the CFP Rankings releases before the final one after conference championship week.

Now that the COVID-19 pandemic is no longer playing havoc with schedules as it did last season, we are back to the committee use its regular criteria. Here are some of key points those members decide when ranking teams besides overall record:

Strength of schedule
Conference championships (when decided)
Head-to-head
Results vs. common opponents
Results vs. ranked opponents

Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than what you're used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week's CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked when the games were played either in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine "ranked opponents". In fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.

Notice that "game control" is not listed in the criteria. It never has been considered despite the term coming out of the mouth of the committee chairman at times. I was able to ask about that specifically at a mock CFP Selection Committee exercise I attended in October only to be met with blank stares as if they had never heard the term used. (The CFP does have a way to measure "game control" – I saw the data – but they do not talk about it.)

With all of that in mind, here is how the CFP Rankings would look if released this week. These rankings are top heavy with SEC and BIg Ten teams only because they have not weeded each other out yet.

1 Georgia
2 Michigan
3 Alabama
4 Ohio St
5 Cincinnati - This would be the highest-ever ranking for a Group of Five team, but the Bearcats have earned it. Navy was the first team to give them much trouble this season. Their win at Notre Dame will have to hold up if this ranking has any chance of going higher.
6 Oklahoma
7 Michigan St
8 Ole Miss
9 Notre Dame
10 Oregon

More Details Here

Michigan? El O El. Palm is an idiot. Period.
 
10-26-2021 06:20 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
From yesterday...


 
10-26-2021 06:21 PM
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Bear Catlett Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
O$U will dispose of Michigan if MSU hasn't done so already.
 
10-26-2021 06:32 PM
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Billy_Bearcat Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
“Navy’s quietly been getting very better”
 
10-26-2021 06:33 PM
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UCGrad1992 Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
More ESPN love from last week [prior to Navy game]...


 
10-26-2021 06:34 PM
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ZCat Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
(10-26-2021 05:15 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  I thought this topic deserved its own thread since the Committee will release the first rankings on Tuesday, November 2nd at 7 PM. There is a lot of information and opinion out there now. From Jerry "Purdue" Palm...

Quote:With the initial College Football Playoff Rankings for the 2021 season set to be released next Tuesday night, we do not want to wait that long to get a taste of how the CFP Selection Committee will be ranking the top 25 teams in the nation. This is a warm up act for the warm up act, which are all of the CFP Rankings releases before the final one after conference championship week.

Now that the COVID-19 pandemic is no longer playing havoc with schedules as it did last season, we are back to the committee use its regular criteria. Here are some of key points those members decide when ranking teams besides overall record:

Strength of schedule
Conference championships (when decided)
Head-to-head
Results vs. common opponents
Results vs. ranked opponents

Thankfully, the committee's definition of "ranked opponents" is different than what you're used to seeing. The rankings they use are the prior week's CFP Rankings. They do not consider where teams are ranked when the games were played either in the CFP, AP Top 25, etc. Using game-time rankings is the most worthless way to determine "ranked opponents". In fact, the committee specifically forbids the use of any poll that has a preseason starting point.

Notice that "game control" is not listed in the criteria. It never has been considered despite the term coming out of the mouth of the committee chairman at times. I was able to ask about that specifically at a mock CFP Selection Committee exercise I attended in October only to be met with blank stares as if they had never heard the term used. (The CFP does have a way to measure "game control" – I saw the data – but they do not talk about it.)

With all of that in mind, here is how the CFP Rankings would look if released this week. These rankings are top heavy with SEC and BIg Ten teams only because they have not weeded each other out yet.

1 Georgia
2 Michigan
3 Alabama
4 Ohio St
5 Cincinnati - This would be the highest-ever ranking for a Group of Five team, but the Bearcats have earned it. Navy was the first team to give them much trouble this season. Their win at Notre Dame will have to hold up if this ranking has any chance of going higher.
6 Oklahoma
7 Michigan St
8 Ole Miss
9 Notre Dame
10 Oregon

More Details Here

Thanks for posting!!
So, if they don’t use rankings that started in the preseason, Which rankings do they use then? I certainly have to give them credit for that.

Are they using a mathematical formula with these criteria? Or is it just a committee sitting down and talking?

I think you should only be objective. Using a mathematical formula. Obviously choosing which metrics is subjective.
 
10-26-2021 06:39 PM
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CliftonAve Online
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
Palm is a Purdue alum and a B10 blowhard. I remember living in Columbus and he would guest on the radio back in our Big East days and he would refer to us as playing in the Big Least. He would then go on and on about how great the B10 was. Notice he has both OSU and Michigan in the playoff.

We’ll what the CFP does. They could very well keep us out, but I won’t trust it coming from him.
 
(This post was last modified: 10-26-2021 07:10 PM by CliftonAve.)
10-26-2021 07:08 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
Idk but I'm already mad

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk
 
10-26-2021 07:29 PM
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
It’s going to be fun watching them try to eventually move ND ahead of UC due to their better strength of schedule.
 
10-26-2021 07:47 PM
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Dannyboy Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
(10-26-2021 07:47 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  It’s going to be fun watching them try to eventually move ND ahead of UC due to their better strength of schedule.

In the playoff era ND has had 1 loss at the end of the season two times. They made the playoff both times. I can’t wait to hear the, “Notre Dame is a better team now….” bullcrap.
 
10-27-2021 07:11 PM
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
(10-27-2021 07:11 PM)Dannyboy Wrote:  
(10-26-2021 07:47 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  It’s going to be fun watching them try to eventually move ND ahead of UC due to their better strength of schedule.

In the playoff era ND has had 1 loss at the end of the season two times. They made the playoff both times. I can’t wait to hear the, “Notre Dame is a better team now….” bullcrap.

I think ND still loses one more this season and don't be surprised if North Carolina takes them down Saturday.
 
10-28-2021 06:22 AM
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bearcatmark Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
(10-28-2021 06:22 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  
(10-27-2021 07:11 PM)Dannyboy Wrote:  
(10-26-2021 07:47 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  It’s going to be fun watching them try to eventually move ND ahead of UC due to their better strength of schedule.

In the playoff era ND has had 1 loss at the end of the season two times. They made the playoff both times. I can’t wait to hear the, “Notre Dame is a better team now….” bullcrap.

I think ND still loses one more this season and don't be surprised if North Carolina takes them down Saturday.

They could lose this weekend but I would be surprised. I expect them to sweep at home where they do rarely lose. I see at Virginia and at Stanford as the real threats for another notre dame loss.
 
10-28-2021 06:33 AM
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OKIcat Online
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
I think SMU vs. Houston looms as a pivotal game this weekend from the perspective of Bearcat fans. The ESPN website now lists the odds as "even" after I think slightly favoring Houston previously. I guess it may come down to who UC would prefer to see in the CCG and at this point I think that might be Houston in Nippert.

UC is on schedule but a lot to play out still before contemplating the CFP or even the NY6 bowl.
 
10-28-2021 07:55 AM
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
(10-28-2021 07:55 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I think SMU vs. Houston looms as a pivotal game this weekend from the perspective of Bearcat fans. The ESPN website now lists the odds as "even" after I think slightly favoring Houston previously. I guess it may come down to who UC would prefer to see in the CCG and at this point I think that might be Houston in Nippert.

UC is on schedule but a lot to play out still before contemplating the CFP or even the NY6 bowl.

Would rather play Houston. But imo want SMU to win so we can have a highly ranked match up late in the season
 
10-28-2021 08:06 AM
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BearcatMan Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
(10-28-2021 07:55 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I think SMU vs. Houston looms as a pivotal game this weekend from the perspective of Bearcat fans. The ESPN website now lists the odds as "even" after I think slightly favoring Houston previously. I guess it may come down to who UC would prefer to see in the CCG and at this point I think that might be Houston in Nippert.

UC is on schedule but a lot to play out still before contemplating the CFP or even the NY6 bowl.

I would rather have a guaranteed game against a team who is in the Top 15 when we play them...so I hope SMU wins
 
10-28-2021 08:14 AM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
I worry about playing SMU twice near the end of the season. Assuming we beat them in the regular season, SMU's rating will drop greatly. Then in the rematch, they probably play us closer, and the critics point to a close game against a lesser ranked opponent.

Wondering if beating a one-loss Houston in the critical final weekend would be more impressive.
 
10-28-2021 09:18 AM
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BearcatMan Offline
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RE: 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings
(10-28-2021 09:18 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  I worry about playing SMU twice near the end of the season. Assuming we beat them in the regular season, SMU's rating will drop greatly. Then in the rematch, they probably play us closer, and the critics point to a close game against a lesser ranked opponent.

Wondering if beating a one-loss Houston in the critical final weekend would be more impressive.

See, that just doesn't mesh with how everything has gone in previous seasons. If a Top 15 team loses to a Top 3 team, they drop maybe 5-7 spots maximum, they absolutely wouldn't drop out of the polls completely...meaning they'd likely be a Top 20-22 team when we play them again. Hell, if you recall when it happened with us a Memphis, we didn't even drop in the polls. I mean, BYU lost to a .500 Boise State team AT HOME by double digits and still only dropped 9 spots. Now, would them losing to Houston and UC keep them in the polls by the end of the season? Probably not...and there is no guarantee Houston would be any better than a 24/25 team if we played them end of season with their terrible Texas Tech loss on the schedule.
 
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2021 09:22 AM by BearcatMan.)
10-28-2021 09:19 AM
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