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What I think would be absolutely beautiful is next week Bama, Michigan and Okie St all lose. We could face a rematch with Notre Dame LOL! Get ready, it's been a weird year already...

Like Mark has said, even if all 3 of those games go against our favor we still may be preferred over OK State. I don't want to sweat it out either but they're worse than us (by quite a bit) in the computer rankings. Their resume is entirely unimpressive. They didn't play a P5 team in non conference. And they have a ton of close results. Pay close attention to where they slot ND, OK State, and OSU this week.

(11-28-2021 12:56 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Like Mark has said, even if all 3 of those games go against our favor we still may be preferred over OK State. I don't want to sweat it out either but they're worse than us (by quite a bit) in the computer rankings. Their resume is entirely unimpressive. They didn't play a P5 team in non conference. And they have a ton of close results. Pay close attention to where they slot ND, OK State, and OSU this week.

They will have played 7 more P5 teams than UC. They will have beaten more ranked teams than UC, 2 of which that were in the top 10 the 2 weeks before the selection show. Their SOS is more than 90 spots higher than ours. Read that last sentance again.

I don’t think there is much of a question OK ST jumps us after they beat Baylor. The committee showed with Oregon that losing to one cruddy team doesn’t matter as long as you have a tough SOS and have wins against highly ranked teams.

Alabama losing next weekend is the key. Same as it’s been for a long time, IMO.

(11-28-2021 01:07 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 12:56 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Like Mark has said, even if all 3 of those games go against our favor we still may be preferred over OK State. I don't want to sweat it out either but they're worse than us (by quite a bit) in the computer rankings. Their resume is entirely unimpressive. They didn't play a P5 team in non conference. And they have a ton of close results. Pay close attention to where they slot ND, OK State, and OSU this week.

They will have played 7 more P5 teams than UC. They will have beaten more ranked teams than UC, 2 of which that were in the top 10 the 2 weeks before the selection show. Their SOS is more than 90 spots higher than ours. Read that last sentance again.

I don’t think there is much of a question OK ST jumps us after they beat Baylor. The committee showed with Oregon that losing to one cruddy team doesn’t matter as long as you have a tough SOS and have wins against highly ranked teams.

Alabama losing next weekend is the key. Same as it’s been for a long time, IMO.

Bama isn’t beating Georgia.

Most of those things have been true for weeks and they've been at least 3 spots below us. If they jump ND and OSU I'd think it's very likely they'll jump us with a win next week but I'm not convinced yet.

(11-28-2021 01:15 PM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:07 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 12:56 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Like Mark has said, even if all 3 of those games go against our favor we still may be preferred over OK State. I don't want to sweat it out either but they're worse than us (by quite a bit) in the computer rankings. Their resume is entirely unimpressive. They didn't play a P5 team in non conference. And they have a ton of close results. Pay close attention to where they slot ND, OK State, and OSU this week.

They will have played 7 more P5 teams than UC. They will have beaten more ranked teams than UC, 2 of which that were in the top 10 the 2 weeks before the selection show. Their SOS is more than 90 spots higher than ours. Read that last sentance again.

I don’t think there is much of a question OK ST jumps us after they beat Baylor. The committee showed with Oregon that losing to one cruddy team doesn’t matter as long as you have a tough SOS and have wins against highly ranked teams.

Alabama losing next weekend is the key. Same as it’s been for a long time, IMO.

Bama isn’t beating Georgia.

Based on how both teams have played the last month I should agree with you, but hard to bet against Saban in these kind of games.

(11-28-2021 01:16 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:15 PM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:07 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 12:56 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Like Mark has said, even if all 3 of those games go against our favor we still may be preferred over OK State. I don't want to sweat it out either but they're worse than us (by quite a bit) in the computer rankings. Their resume is entirely unimpressive. They didn't play a P5 team in non conference. And they have a ton of close results. Pay close attention to where they slot ND, OK State, and OSU this week.

They will have played 7 more P5 teams than UC. They will have beaten more ranked teams than UC, 2 of which that were in the top 10 the 2 weeks before the selection show. Their SOS is more than 90 spots higher than ours. Read that last sentance again.

I don’t think there is much of a question OK ST jumps us after they beat Baylor. The committee showed with Oregon that losing to one cruddy team doesn’t matter as long as you have a tough SOS and have wins against highly ranked teams.

Alabama losing next weekend is the key. Same as it’s been for a long time, IMO.

Bama isn’t beating Georgia.

Based on how both teams have played the last month I should agree with you, but hard to bet against Saban in these kind of games.

Honestly if Georgia loses they shouldn’t be in either. The SEC east isn’t good. At some point you have to reward undefeated teams and conference championships.

Relying on Saban to not have his team and a game plan ready to punch above their weight is a bad business model. .

(11-28-2021 01:16 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Based on how both teams have played the last month I should agree with you, but hard to bet against Saban in these kind of games.

Or for Kirby. They've been the best recruiting team over the last 5 years and haven't fully planted themselves with the Bama, Clemson, OSU tier. They gave away the national title game. Time for them to show they can play at that level in a big game against an elite team.

Sent from my SM-T720 using Tapatalk

I would think Georgia will have some incentive to knock Alabama out of the playoffs this week.

Let's see if the Committee ranks us #3 this week. That would be another factor in our favor. I think it's really been amazing how many things that needed to happen did to help put us in the current position we're in. I was making the point earlier that there is still MORE CHAOS that can happen in the remaining conference chip week to further help solidify our inclusion. We just need to continue doing our part and that means finishing as an unbeaten conference champ. 13-0 is not too shabby with that top ten win in South Bend.

If we are 3 this week it’s win and we are in. We are going to be 4.

The committee is not going to jump Alabama with a tight win to Auburn in the Iron Bowl because we beat ECU. I doubt most of the committee knows what state ECU is in.

Based off the early money lines, looks like Ok State is a solid favorite at -210, Bama a solid dog at +210, and Michigan a big favorite at -430. If you convert those lines to Win% (how many bets Vegas wants the favorite to win to break even), that comes out to 67.7% for Ok State, 32% for Bama, and 80% for Michigan.

So if you're a betting man, the probability that all 3 of those teams win next week is ~ 17.3%. Those of you who are worried can probably get a nice parlay out of that.

(11-28-2021 02:06 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Based off the early money lines, looks like Ok State is a solid favorite at -210, Bama a solid dog at +210, and Michigan a big favorite at -430. If you convert those lines to Win% (how many bets Vegas wants the favorite to win to break even), that comes out to 67.7% for Ok State, 32% for Bama, and 80% for Michigan.

So if you're a betting man, the probability that all 3 of those teams win next week is ~ 17.3%. Those of you who are worried can probably get a nice parlay out of that.

Oh Billy is guaranteed to bet that parlay.

Just checked, you can lock it in at 8 to 1.

Coaches poll kept us #4 FWIW. OK State jumps to #5 ahead of Ohio State and ND.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/ra...asontype/2

(11-28-2021 02:18 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Coaches poll kept us #4 FWIW. OK State jumps to #5 ahead of Ohio State and ND.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/ra...asontype/2

Oka St. jumps Notre Dame. That's not good. One more top 10 victory and they jump UC.

(11-28-2021 01:22 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Relying on Saban to not have his team and a game plan ready to punch above their weight is a bad business model. .

I tried riding Alabama against the spread this year and it wasn't a very good business model either. Georgia, however, was like stopping by the ATM

UC jumps Bama in the AP poll.

(11-28-2021 02:25 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  

(11-28-2021 01:22 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Relying on Saban to not have his team and a game plan ready to punch above their weight is a bad business model. .

I tried riding Alabama against the spread this year and it wasn't a very good business model either. Georgia, however, was like stopping by the ATM

Hitting "Bet" on a 7 point Georgia-Ohio State-Cincinnati tease made me a very happy man this fall.