(10-17-2021 05:47 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(10-17-2021 05:38 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  I think the Rutgers guy is a little too awash in the B10 love juice.

The B10 will get its one CFP participant as of right. That’s all they are getting. Ohio State losing at home to Oregon and Iowa pooping the bed to Purdue cratered any hopes of 2. Only one of the East teams gets the chance to rout a woefully overrated Iowa.

I’m usually advocating access to the G5 and am still more of an old Big East guy, but I have to call it the way I see it. It’s going to be very difficult leaving one loss MSU/UM out, although this is a very unlikely scenario. The more likely scenario which we all agree on is a UGa upset in Atlanta.

I feel you. Rutgers going 8-4 or 9-3 in the same divison as Michigan, MSU, Ohio State, Penn State is like a miracle.

(10-24-2021 05:22 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  With OU and Oregon wins (although OSU lost), I feel both will end up ahead of UC. Oregon as a win @OhioSt so how could you leave them out if OSU ends up winning the Big10? Forgoing a Bama upset of UGa, it’ll be:

1. UGa 13-0
2. OSU 12-1
3. OU 13-0
4. Oregon 12-1
5. UC 13-0

UC vs Iowa/UM/MSU is the Fiesta or Peach.

Still likely to be many more upsets though.

I think Cincy is in the top 4 right now, but they are more vulnerable to an above scenario than a week ago. Squeaking by a bad Navy team didn't help.

Also, I think Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs. I think Alabama beats UGA close in the SEC title game. And Georgia goes in.

What will be infuriating is that Ohio State will go too, over a 12-1 Oregon team they lost to. The howling from the West Coast will be horrific, and to no avail.

My prediction as of now .... Alabama, UGA, OU, Ohio State

(10-24-2021 09:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 05:22 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  With OU and Oregon wins (although OSU lost), I feel both will end up ahead of UC. Oregon as a win @OhioSt so how could you leave them out if OSU ends up winning the Big10? Forgoing a Bama upset of UGa, it’ll be:

1. UGa 13-0
2. OSU 12-1
3. OU 13-0
4. Oregon 12-1
5. UC 13-0

UC vs Iowa/UM/MSU is the Fiesta or Peach.

Still likely to be many more upsets though.

I think Cincy is in the top 4 right now, but they are more vulnerable to an above scenario than a week ago. Squeaking by a bad Navy team didn't help.

Also, I think Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs. I think Alabama beats UGA close in the SEC title game. And Georgia goes in.

What will be infuriating is that Ohio State will go too, over a 12-1 Oregon team they lost to. The howling from the West Coast will be horrific, and to no avail.

My prediction as of now .... Alabama, UGA, OU, Ohio State

...I got a weird feeling that Bama may have a hard time in Jordan-Hare this year, but that's probably just my Aubie side coming out... I DO think AU is the biggest hurdle Bama has left for sure... Saban seems to get a bit disoriented in that stadium, but that was when Gus was down there... maybe Harsin will dust off some of those old Boise St. 'trick plays' for that one... but yeah I see Bama most likely winning out regular season and maybe even beating UGA in the SECCG... then, for 'turnabout' from whenever the Tua deal happened, UGA whups Bama for the natty...

(10-24-2021 09:59 AM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 09:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 05:22 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  With OU and Oregon wins (although OSU lost), I feel both will end up ahead of UC. Oregon as a win @OhioSt so how could you leave them out if OSU ends up winning the Big10? Forgoing a Bama upset of UGa, it’ll be:

1. UGa 13-0
2. OSU 12-1
3. OU 13-0
4. Oregon 12-1
5. UC 13-0

UC vs Iowa/UM/MSU is the Fiesta or Peach.

Still likely to be many more upsets though.

I think Cincy is in the top 4 right now, but they are more vulnerable to an above scenario than a week ago. Squeaking by a bad Navy team didn't help.

Also, I think Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs. I think Alabama beats UGA close in the SEC title game. And Georgia goes in.

What will be infuriating is that Ohio State will go too, over a 12-1 Oregon team they lost to. The howling from the West Coast will be horrific, and to no avail.

My prediction as of now .... Alabama, UGA, OU, Ohio State

...I got a weird feeling that Bama may have a hard time in Jordan-Hare this year, but that's probably just my Aubie side coming out... I DO think AU is the biggest hurdle Bama has left for sure... Saban seems to get a bit disoriented in that stadium, but that was when Gus was down there... maybe Harsin will dust off some of those old Boise St. 'trick plays' for that one... but yeah I see Bama most likely winning out regular season and maybe even beating UGA in the SECCG... then, for 'turnabout' from whenever the Tua deal happened, UGA whups Bama for the natty...

Alabama really struggling. They just wore Tennessee down but it was a 7 point game going into the 4th. They didn't miss as many tackles and drop as many passes as they did against A&M and the Vols were still nose to nose until the interception in the 4th.

(10-24-2021 11:23 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 09:59 AM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 09:52 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-24-2021 05:22 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  With OU and Oregon wins (although OSU lost), I feel both will end up ahead of UC. Oregon as a win @OhioSt so how could you leave them out if OSU ends up winning the Big10? Forgoing a Bama upset of UGa, it’ll be:

1. UGa 13-0
2. OSU 12-1
3. OU 13-0
4. Oregon 12-1
5. UC 13-0

UC vs Iowa/UM/MSU is the Fiesta or Peach.

Still likely to be many more upsets though.

I think Cincy is in the top 4 right now, but they are more vulnerable to an above scenario than a week ago. Squeaking by a bad Navy team didn't help.

Also, I think Alabama and Georgia both make the playoffs. I think Alabama beats UGA close in the SEC title game. And Georgia goes in.

What will be infuriating is that Ohio State will go too, over a 12-1 Oregon team they lost to. The howling from the West Coast will be horrific, and to no avail.

My prediction as of now .... Alabama, UGA, OU, Ohio State

...I got a weird feeling that Bama may have a hard time in Jordan-Hare this year, but that's probably just my Aubie side coming out... I DO think AU is the biggest hurdle Bama has left for sure... Saban seems to get a bit disoriented in that stadium, but that was when Gus was down there... maybe Harsin will dust off some of those old Boise St. 'trick plays' for that one... but yeah I see Bama most likely winning out regular season and maybe even beating UGA in the SECCG... then, for 'turnabout' from whenever the Tua deal happened, UGA whups Bama for the natty...

Alabama really struggling. They just wore Tennessee down but it was a 7 point game going into the 4th. They didn't miss as many tackles and drop as many passes as they did against A&M and the Vols were still nose to nose until the interception in the 4th.

That's true, but the thing about Alabama is, they tend to get better as the season goes on. They did last year, they had some shootouts early, like with a bad Ole Miss team.

I have Cincinnati downgraded from 92% to 87% likely to make the playoff, given they are 13-0. The likelihood that their performance is graded "unimpressive" compared to other potential playoff teams ticked up due to the 7pt victory over Navy. Still, they are the 3rd most likely playoff team overall (ESPN has them at 4th, behind Alabama).

CFP contenders as of 10/24:
Unbeatens
Georgia 7-0
Oklahoma 8-0
Michigan 7-0
Michigan St. 7-0
Wake Forest 7-0

1 loss
Alabama 7-1
Ole Miss 6-1
Kentucky 6-1
Ohio St. 6-1
Iowa 6-1
Oregon 6-1
Oklahoma St. 6-1
Baylor 6-1
Pittsburgh 6-1
Notre Dame 6-1

G5
Cincinnati 7-0

BUMP

(10-24-2021 09:59 AM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...I got a weird feeling that Bama may have a hard time in Jordan-Hare this year, but that's probably just my Aubie side coming out... I DO think AU is the biggest hurdle Bama has left for sure... Saban seems to get a bit disoriented in that stadium, but that was when Gus was down there... maybe Harsin will dust off some of those old Boise St. 'trick plays' for that one... but yeah I see Bama most likely winning out regular season and maybe even beating UGA in the SECCG... then, for 'turnabout' from whenever the Tua deal happened, UGA whups Bama for the natty...

...not that I'm a prognosticator or anything...

UC is gonna get UM if things hold up… winnable.

(12-04-2021 06:54 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC is gonna get UM if things hold up… winnable.

no they won't. It would be Alabama coming for Cincy. Georgia would be 3 and Michigan 2.

(12-04-2021 06:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-04-2021 06:54 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC is gonna get UM if things hold up… winnable.

no they won't. It would be Alabama coming for Cincy. Georgia would be 3 and Michigan 2.

Yeah… never mind.

(12-04-2021 06:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-04-2021 06:54 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC is gonna get UM if things hold up… winnable.

no they won't. It would be Alabama coming for Cincy. Georgia would be 3 and Michigan 2.

yup. No way they make it Bama 1 and UGA 4 - they want that 'rematch' for the natty to be UAT-UGA if at all possible...

Bama vs. Cincy
UGA vs. Michigan

Could the committee seed the field as Michigan, Alabama, Cincinnati, Georgia?

(12-04-2021 07:06 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  Could the committee seed the field as Michigan, Alabama, Cincinnati, Georgia?

if Bama wins tonight, they will be #1.

It shouldn't matter, other than the locale where they will play the First Round games... but however it is divvyed up, Bama and UGA won't be playing each other in the First Round...

...Cincy still has some wood to chop, y'all... up by 15, but they are giving UH the ball as much as possible... under 4 minutes - if UC can stop UH on this drive, it SHOULD be over...

UC ball on downs with 2 minutes left!

35-20... BEARCATS!!! (sorry Coogs...)

Out of curiosity what happens if the committee still keeps cincy out? Puts Notre Dame in or something crazy. Highly unlikely but it’s hard to discount anything the establishment might try to keep Cincy out.

(12-04-2021 07:34 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  Out of curiosity what happens if the committee still keeps cincy out? Puts Notre Dame in or something crazy. Highly unlikely but it’s hard to discount anything the establishment might try to keep Cincy out.

How ESPN is pumping that Cincinnati is in. I doubt the CFP Committee would screw them over. That was a convincing win against a very good Houston team.

(12-04-2021 07:34 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  Out of curiosity what happens if the committee still keeps cincy out? Puts Notre Dame in or something crazy. Highly unlikely but it’s hard to discount anything the establishment might try to keep Cincy out.

the ESPN talking heads said it's a done deal...

...it's a done deal.