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Cincinnati in CFP
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #121
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 08:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC has no shot until all B1G/SEC teams have two losses. ND just isn’t a strong victory. Best hope is for UGA to end up 13-0, everyone else in the SEC to have two losses, B1G East only having one one loss team, and the Sooners slipping at least once. Honestly, a one loss Oregon can still get in over undefeated UC because of the OSU victory earlier in the year. OU is the key. If they lose I think UC has a clear path.

I am not saying they are at their peak, but looking at Notre Dame's remaining schedule there is a good chance they finish the regular season 11-1. Tell me who out of this schedule will beat the Irish:

USC
UNC
Navy
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Stanford

I realize it is easy to assume Notre Dame is "not strong" because they lost to a school named "Cincinnati" but the fact is UC beat them convincingly in South Bend. The game was not as close as the 24-13 score indicated.

I can't recall ever in my 4 decades following CFB that a win at Notre Dame is deemed "unimpressive". People forget that Notre Dame had won 26 at home until UC walked into that stadium.
10-17-2021 08:50 AM
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curtis0620 Offline
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Post: #122
Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 08:29 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Can the AP poll voters vote, as national champion, for a team that did not participate in the playoff?


Yes, they do not have to vote for the playoff winner.


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10-17-2021 08:54 AM
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McKinney Offline
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Post: #123
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
If Cincinnati gets into the playoffs will that count as evidence that a team from the G5 can make the 4 team playoff (removing the argument for 5-2-1)? Or does Cincinnati not count because they're going to the Big XII.
10-17-2021 08:58 AM
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RUScarlets Online
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Post: #124
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 08:50 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC has no shot until all B1G/SEC teams have two losses. ND just isn’t a strong victory. Best hope is for UGA to end up 13-0, everyone else in the SEC to have two losses, B1G East only having one one loss team, and the Sooners slipping at least once. Honestly, a one loss Oregon can still get in over undefeated UC because of the OSU victory earlier in the year. OU is the key. If they lose I think UC has a clear path.

I am not saying they are at their peak, but looking at Notre Dame's remaining schedule there is a good chance they finish the regular season 11-1. Tell me who out of this schedule will beat the Irish:

USC
UNC
Navy
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Stanford

I realize it is easy to assume Notre Dame is "not strong" because they lost to a school named "Cincinnati" but the fact is UC beat them convincingly in South Bend. The game was not as close as the 24-13 score indicated.

I can't recall ever in my 4 decades following CFB that a win at Notre Dame is deemed "unimpressive". People forget that Notre Dame had won 26 at home until UC walked into that stadium.

It’s all irrelevant (what the Irish do here on out)… as it’s only 1 game. Iowa still controls their own destiny and they already have a top 5 win. The key is to hope UM, MSU, and OU don’t all end up with 1 loss, because an 11-1 runner up in the B1G East is probably in. No doubt about it (B1G CCG being a QF).

That’s why OU needs to lose. I also wouldn’t rule out UK if they run the table (although they have a very weak schedule and are unlikely to get back in).

Right now, I’m projecting two teams from both the SEC and B1G with the pecking order being OU, Oregon, UC in that order. Oregon has looked suspect as of late but they have a better “best win” than UC and can clean it up the rest of the way.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2021 08:59 AM by RUScarlets.)
10-17-2021 08:58 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #125
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 08:58 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:50 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC has no shot until all B1G/SEC teams have two losses. ND just isn’t a strong victory. Best hope is for UGA to end up 13-0, everyone else in the SEC to have two losses, B1G East only having one one loss team, and the Sooners slipping at least once. Honestly, a one loss Oregon can still get in over undefeated UC because of the OSU victory earlier in the year. OU is the key. If they lose I think UC has a clear path.

I am not saying they are at their peak, but looking at Notre Dame's remaining schedule there is a good chance they finish the regular season 11-1. Tell me who out of this schedule will beat the Irish:

USC
UNC
Navy
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Stanford

I realize it is easy to assume Notre Dame is "not strong" because they lost to a school named "Cincinnati" but the fact is UC beat them convincingly in South Bend. The game was not as close as the 24-13 score indicated.

I can't recall ever in my 4 decades following CFB that a win at Notre Dame is deemed "unimpressive". People forget that Notre Dame had won 26 at home until UC walked into that stadium.

It’s all irrelevant (what the Irish do here on out)… as it’s only 1 game. Iowa still controls their own destiny and they already have a top 5 win. The key is to hope UM, MSU, and OU don’t all end up with 1 loss, because an 11-1 runner up in the B1G East is probably in. No doubt about it (B1G CCG being a QF).

That’s why OU needs to lose. I also wouldn’t rule out UK if they run the table (although they have a very weak schedule and are unlikely to get back in).

Right now, I’m projecting two teams from both the SEC and B1G with the pecking order being OU, Oregon, UC in that order. Oregon has looked suspect as of late but they have a better “best win” than UC and can clean it up the rest of the way.

Iowa and Wisconsin next week-- first one to 10 wins. I would say Iowa drops another before the end of the season but looking at their remaining schedule it is extremely soft: Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois and Nebraska. They'll probably run through those teams and lose by multiple scores to the winner of B1G East. I think the B1G only gets one.
10-17-2021 09:18 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #126
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 08:54 AM)curtis0620 Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:29 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Can the AP poll voters vote, as national champion, for a team that did not participate in the playoff?


Yes, they do not have to vote for the playoff winner.


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So, and in theory, Cincinnati could be excluded from the four-team playoff, win its NY6 Bowl game, finish 14-0 and be voted No. 1 in the AP poll? Correct?
10-17-2021 09:18 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #127
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 08:29 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Can the AP poll voters vote, as national champion, for a team that did not participate in the playoff?

Sure. They are not a party to the CFP process. Can vote for whoever they want.

The odds that they pick anyone other than the CFP champ is vanishingly small, though.
10-17-2021 09:26 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #128
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 08:58 AM)McKinney Wrote:  If Cincinnati gets into the playoffs will that count as evidence that a team from the G5 can make the 4 team playoff (removing the argument for 5-2-1)? Or does Cincinnati not count because they're going to the Big XII.

They count, they are an AAC team right now. This is an AAC season for them.
10-17-2021 09:27 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #129
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 09:18 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:54 AM)curtis0620 Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:29 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Can the AP poll voters vote, as national champion, for a team that did not participate in the playoff?


Yes, they do not have to vote for the playoff winner.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


So, and in theory, Cincinnati could be excluded from the four-team playoff, win its NY6 Bowl game, finish 14-0 and be voted No. 1 in the AP poll? Correct?

In theory, that is correct. That could happen in the Coaches poll as well, as the Coaches poll is not tied to the CFP either.

And in hoops the Coaches poll could vote someone other than the NCAA tournament winner as the national champ (the AP does not hold a post-tournament poll).

But the odds of either happening are extremely small.
10-17-2021 09:30 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #130
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 09:30 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 09:18 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:54 AM)curtis0620 Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:29 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Can the AP poll voters vote, as national champion, for a team that did not participate in the playoff?


Yes, they do not have to vote for the playoff winner.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


So, and in theory, Cincinnati could be excluded from the four-team playoff, win its NY6 Bowl game, finish 14-0 and be voted No. 1 in the AP poll? Correct?

In theory, that is correct. That could happen in the Coaches poll as well, as the Coaches poll is not tied to the CFP either.

And in hoops the Coaches poll could vote someone other than the NCAA tournament winner as the national champ (the AP does not hold a post-tournament poll).

But the odds of either happening are extremely small.

The only way it happens:

1. Cincy pounds a very good SMU team by, say, five TDs in the AAC title game, looks razor sharp and is perceived by many (including lots of media folks) as deserving of a bid to the four-team playoff — but is not invited.

2. The four teams that go to the playoff each have one loss.

3. A "sixth team," with one loss and, like Cincy, reasonably deserving of a playoff bid — is not invited. That team and Cincy (both "top seven-esque" teams) are pitted against each other in a NY6 bowl game and enter it with massive chips on their respective shoulders.

4. Whoever wins the title game does so in a very ugly, low-scoring game to finish 14-1.

5. Cincy manhandles its strong opponent in the NY6 bowl game in impressive fashion and finishes 14-0.

IF all that happens (extremely unlikely), the AP voters could vote UC No. 1 ...

... and I bring out the unicycle, multi-colored afro wig and small exotic mammal to celebrate.
10-17-2021 09:55 AM
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Post: #131
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 08:50 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC has no shot until all B1G/SEC teams have two losses. ND just isn’t a strong victory. Best hope is for UGA to end up 13-0, everyone else in the SEC to have two losses, B1G East only having one one loss team, and the Sooners slipping at least once. Honestly, a one loss Oregon can still get in over undefeated UC because of the OSU victory earlier in the year. OU is the key. If they lose I think UC has a clear path.

I am not saying they are at their peak, but looking at Notre Dame's remaining schedule there is a good chance they finish the regular season 11-1. Tell me who out of this schedule will beat the Irish:

USC
UNC
Navy
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Stanford

I realize it is easy to assume Notre Dame is "not strong" because they lost to a school named "Cincinnati" but the fact is UC beat them convincingly in South Bend. The game was not as close as the 24-13 score indicated.

I can't recall ever in my 4 decades following CFB that a win at Notre Dame is deemed "unimpressive". People forget that Notre Dame had won 26 at home until UC walked into that stadium.

Toledo nearly beat Notre Dame, so its possible any of those 6 could win.
10-17-2021 10:03 AM
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Post: #132
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 08:50 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC has no shot until all B1G/SEC teams have two losses. ND just isn’t a strong victory. Best hope is for UGA to end up 13-0, everyone else in the SEC to have two losses, B1G East only having one one loss team, and the Sooners slipping at least once. Honestly, a one loss Oregon can still get in over undefeated UC because of the OSU victory earlier in the year. OU is the key. If they lose I think UC has a clear path.

I am not saying they are at their peak, but looking at Notre Dame's remaining schedule there is a good chance they finish the regular season 11-1. Tell me who out of this schedule will beat the Irish:

USC
UNC
Navy
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Stanford

I realize it is easy to assume Notre Dame is "not strong" because they lost to a school named "Cincinnati" but the fact is UC beat them convincingly in South Bend. The game was not as close as the 24-13 score indicated.

I can't recall ever in my 4 decades following CFB that a win at Notre Dame is deemed "unimpressive". People forget that Notre Dame had won 26 at home until UC walked into that stadium.

Well Purdue did beat Iowa convincingly yesterday.04-cheers
10-17-2021 10:06 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #133
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 10:03 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:50 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC has no shot until all B1G/SEC teams have two losses. ND just isn’t a strong victory. Best hope is for UGA to end up 13-0, everyone else in the SEC to have two losses, B1G East only having one one loss team, and the Sooners slipping at least once. Honestly, a one loss Oregon can still get in over undefeated UC because of the OSU victory earlier in the year. OU is the key. If they lose I think UC has a clear path.

I am not saying they are at their peak, but looking at Notre Dame's remaining schedule there is a good chance they finish the regular season 11-1. Tell me who out of this schedule will beat the Irish:

USC
UNC
Navy
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Stanford

I realize it is easy to assume Notre Dame is "not strong" because they lost to a school named "Cincinnati" but the fact is UC beat them convincingly in South Bend. The game was not as close as the 24-13 score indicated.

I can't recall ever in my 4 decades following CFB that a win at Notre Dame is deemed "unimpressive". People forget that Notre Dame had won 26 at home until UC walked into that stadium.

Toledo nearly beat Notre Dame, so its possible any of those 6 could win.

Agree.
10-17-2021 10:06 AM
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RUScarlets Online
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Post: #134
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 09:18 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Iowa and Wisconsin next week-- first one to 10 wins. I would say Iowa drops another before the end of the season but looking at their remaining schedule it is extremely soft: Wisconsin, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois and Nebraska. They'll probably run through those teams and lose by multiple scores to the winner of B1G East. I think the B1G only gets one.

I’m gonna say OSU beats everyone in the division, but then either MU or MSU have only one loss, both to OSU. Then the h2h between MSU/UM will decide the third or fourth spot. I can’t see them taking UC over a one loss Michigan/MSU.
10-17-2021 10:37 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #135
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 09:55 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 09:30 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 09:18 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:54 AM)curtis0620 Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:29 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Can the AP poll voters vote, as national champion, for a team that did not participate in the playoff?


Yes, they do not have to vote for the playoff winner.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


So, and in theory, Cincinnati could be excluded from the four-team playoff, win its NY6 Bowl game, finish 14-0 and be voted No. 1 in the AP poll? Correct?

In theory, that is correct. That could happen in the Coaches poll as well, as the Coaches poll is not tied to the CFP either.

And in hoops the Coaches poll could vote someone other than the NCAA tournament winner as the national champ (the AP does not hold a post-tournament poll).

But the odds of either happening are extremely small.

The only way it happens:

1. Cincy pounds a very good SMU team by, say, five TDs in the AAC title game, looks razor sharp and is perceived by many (including lots of media folks) as deserving of a bid to the four-team playoff — but is not invited.

2. The four teams that go to the playoff each have one loss.

3. A "sixth team," with one loss and, like Cincy, reasonably deserving of a playoff bid — is not invited. That team and Cincy (both "top seven-esque" teams) are pitted against each other in a NY6 bowl game and enter it with massive chips on their respective shoulders.

4. Whoever wins the title game does so in a very ugly, low-scoring game to finish 14-1.

5. Cincy manhandles its strong opponent in the NY6 bowl game in impressive fashion and finishes 14-0.

IF all that happens (extremely unlikely), the AP voters could vote UC No. 1 ...

... and I bring out the unicycle, multi-colored afro wig and small exotic mammal to celebrate.

I think the one issue with your sequence, and why the AP voting anyone else but the CFP champ #1 is very unlikely, is that the national champ would have beaten two top-4 level teams, to just one for Cincy.
10-17-2021 11:24 AM
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shizzle787 Offline
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Post: #136
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
Cincinnati needs the following to happen:

1. Go undefeated
2. Wake Forest lose twice
3. N.C. State and Pitt lose once more
4. Oregon lose once more
5. Iowa lose one more game but win B1G
6. Ohio State win out until losing to Iowa in B1G championship game
7. Georgia win out

If these things happen, only the Big 12 and SEC will be guaranteed to be represented and the other three will be out.
10-17-2021 11:29 AM
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RE: Cincinnati in CFP
Good lord they don’t need Wake Forest to lose twice. Oregon lost to a team that won’t become bowl eligible. Stick a fork in them. NC State and Pitt are non-entities in this.

People are overthinking this.
10-17-2021 11:31 AM
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rath v2.0 Offline
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RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 08:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC has no shot until all B1G/SEC teams have two losses. ND just isn’t a strong victory. Best hope is for UGA to end up 13-0, everyone else in the SEC to have two losses, B1G East only having one one loss team, and the Sooners slipping at least once. Honestly, a one loss Oregon can still get in over undefeated UC because of the OSU victory earlier in the year. OU is the key. If they lose I think UC has a clear path.

People need Zoloft if this is what they think. I think you may have some B10 beer goggles.
10-17-2021 11:33 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #139
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 11:31 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Good lord they don’t need Wake Forest to lose twice. Oregon lost to a team that won’t become bowl eligible. Stick a fork in them. NC State and Pitt are non-entities in this.

People are overthinking this.

Yeah, I think Cincy has a pretty clear path. The teams that will beat out an unbeaten Cincy are:

1) B1G and SEC champs with zero or one loss.

2) Undefeated Big 12 and ACC champs.

2) Georgia, with one loss to Alabama in SEC CCG.

Beyond that, they also might lose out to a one-loss Oregon as PAC champ, particularly if Ohio State wins the B1G with one loss.

So Cincy just needs Wake to lose once, that knocks the ACC out. They need the winner of the Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State game to lose to someone else, that knocks the B12 out. It would also be nice if Oregon loses again. And they don't necessarily need all of that to happen. Just some of it.

But Cincy will not lose out to any two-loss team, no matter who it is.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2021 11:41 AM by quo vadis.)
10-17-2021 11:39 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #140
RE: Cincinnati in CFP
(10-17-2021 08:50 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-17-2021 08:28 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  UC has no shot until all B1G/SEC teams have two losses. ND just isn’t a strong victory. Best hope is for UGA to end up 13-0, everyone else in the SEC to have two losses, B1G East only having one one loss team, and the Sooners slipping at least once. Honestly, a one loss Oregon can still get in over undefeated UC because of the OSU victory earlier in the year. OU is the key. If they lose I think UC has a clear path.

I am not saying they are at their peak, but looking at Notre Dame's remaining schedule there is a good chance they finish the regular season 11-1. Tell me who out of this schedule will beat the Irish:

USC
UNC
Navy
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Stanford

I realize it is easy to assume Notre Dame is "not strong" because they lost to a school named "Cincinnati" but the fact is UC beat them convincingly in South Bend. The game was not as close as the 24-13 score indicated.

I can't recall ever in my 4 decades following CFB that a win at Notre Dame is deemed "unimpressive". People forget that Notre Dame had won 26 at home until UC walked into that stadium.

UNC
10-17-2021 11:58 AM
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