The critical thing that determines the future of the Big 12 is whether or not they retain a guaranteed seat at the playoff table once UT and OU are gone. The guaranteed seat at the BCS was what allowed the Big East to retool when it was first raided by the ACC. If the Big 12 loses that seat, it has significantly less to offer anyone. This would also increase the likelihood that the existing members would scramble for other conferences that had the guarantee.

(07-26-2021 09:35 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 09:19 AM)esayem Wrote:  Houston*
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
Colorado State*
BYU*

Cincinnati*
West Virginia
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

I like how this shakes out, but I am not confident it will happen. All additions were on the shortlist before.

I like UCF over Colorado St. The Big 12 is going to be looking to establishing itself as clearly superior to the G5. UCF has been a strong program since they moved to the American in 2013. I’d take them and establish a presence in Florida rather than creating a bridge to BYU.

I don’t disagree, but Colorado is a pretty fast growing state and has a lot of upside. UCF is a mega school pumping out towns of people each year. If it is UCF, then look for OK State to move to the West division.

The Big 12 WILL absolutely live on unless this happens:

1. 6 of the 8 remaining schools vote to disband. The only way this would happen is if 6 of the 8 remaining schools get invitations to the PAC, B1G, SEC, or ACC. If 6 schools can get an invitation, then that gives the Big 12 80% of the schools (including OU and Texas) that will vote in their own best interests to disband the conference. This IS the scenario that Texas and OU are hoping for because then there is no cost to them (and the rest of the Big 12) for disbanding.

2. The Big 12 can merge with the PAC or ACC (no chance with B1G and SEC). Why this might be more attractive than you think? The Grant of Rights with OU and Texas until 2025. Believe me - the lawyers will ENSURE that that asset is owned by the merged conference and that is potentially worth up to $200M. Even OU and Texas and the SEC won't be willing to pay it to get OU and Texas in the SEC by 2022. How many schools would it take to complete a full merger? 8 of the 10. If the remaining 8 are for it, there is nothing Texas and OU can do about it.

If 6 of the remaining 8 schools cannot find a P4 conference to join AND if the PAC and ACC decline to do a full merger, then the Big 12 has 2 very real options.

1. Expand - what all of you enjoy talking about.
2. Stay at 8 - don't put it past the conference to do this. The Big 12 does still own the rights to both the "SouthWest Conference" and the "Big 8 Conference" (as well as "Big 6", "Big 7", "Big 14", "Big 16" BTW). Don't be completely surprised if they choose to dust off the old "Big 8" and copyrights and logos and just forge forward that way. Remember, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, and Oklahoma State are from the original Big 8. The minimum number of schools for a conference is still only 6 schools. There has been NCAA debates about moving it up to 8, but that actually has never happened. There is NO WAY the NCAA votes to make the minimum 10 schools.

The Big 12 already evaluated all G5 schools and none were found to be worth inviting for expansion. What has changed that in those evaluations are 2 things:
1. Texas was against any other Texas schools from joining. That obviously isn't a factor anymore so who does that benefit? Houston. THE BIGGEST REASON Houston was never going to get an invitation was because the Big 12 already had FOUR schools in Texas including the flagship school - The University of Texas. With UT gone, Houston's attractiveness goes up - A LOT. Houston is a major market (and one that was hurt with A&M leaving the Big 12). Houston is a large public school - and yes that makes them more attractive. Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor together are not terribly attractive Texas-wide - ESPECIALLY in East Texas. Texas leaving the Big 12 was Houston's only chance of getting an invitation - now it has happened.
2. Texas wanted to be the only "Big Dog" in the Big 12. OU always fell in line with what Texas wanted to do and weren't a problem. What school could the Big 12 have possibly invited who would have bucked Texas to try to assert control that Texas DID NOT WANT the headache? BYU. BYU is notoriously difficult to deal with. (Ask the WAC - BYU was a driver to create the MWC. Ask the MWC - when BYU didn't get their way they went independent). Now BYU realizes they are NOT the "Notre Dame of the West" and Independence is a tough business. No other major conference will touch BYU with a 10 foot pole. The Big 12 now actually could believe BYU is worth the headache.

So there it is, I think the 4 most realistic options for the Big 12 are:
1. 6 of 8 schools find a new home and the Big 12 votes to disband. (Medium chance IMO)
2. Big 12 fully merges with the PAC or ACC. (Low chance IMO)
3. Big 12 goes forward with 8 members - i.e. Big 8 (High chance IMO)
4. Big 12 invites Houston and BYU (Best chance IMO)

If any other P5 conferences make an offer to a Big12 school(s), they are gone. Assuming that doesn't happen and working with the known knowns, I predict adding UH and Cincy to get to 10.

From a short term competitive standpoint, that's a good conference in football and basketball, IMO. From a rights fees standpoint, not so much. And from a recruiting down the line standpoint it would be hit pretty hard, at least in terms of football.

FROM DYLAN BUCKINGHAM, KFOR OKLAHOMA CITY:
(One day ago). Words are getting a little twisted out there. I want to make it clear that the B10 is just a possibility for OKState. One of many. There's nothing imminent and there's no guarantee the Big 10 would welcome OSU in. Talks are simply exploratory at this point.

(Two days ago).For OKState, I can report the Cowboys have been very proactive about their next move conference wise. That includes possibly the Big 10. I'm told the Big 10 has been receptive and is looking into how a partnership could work. The AAU accreditation is not a deal breaker.

FROM NITTANY LIONS WIRE:
It makes total sense for Oklahoma State to line up all their potential options, and joining the Big Ten would be a solid option to keep on the table. As noted by Buckingham, the AAU accreditation not being a supposed deal-breaker would make things easier for Oklahoma State, but only if the Big Ten feels that the addition of the Cowboys is worth it.

Of course, the addition of just one team from the Big 12 probably would not make much sense for the Big Ten. But pairing the Cowboys with another solid option from the Big 12 would. But without Texas and Oklahoma options, the next best options would appear to be schools like Kansas (great for basketball, not so much for football), Iowa State (pretty good rivalry with Iowa State) or West Virginia. Adding WVU would be fun for Penn State as it would rekindle one of Penn State's best regional rivalries before Penn State's Big Ten days.

A rumor that Kansas had a call set with the Big Ten was midly entertaining while it lasted, but that was debunked by multiple media outlets over the weekend.

The next week or so will be fascinating to watch unfold.

(07-26-2021 09:53 AM)esayem Wrote:  I don’t disagree, but Colorado is a pretty fast growing state and has a lot of upside. UCF is a mega school pumping out towns of people each year. If it is UCF, then look for OK State to move to the West division.

I have my doubts about UCF coming alone, but I'd also have doubts about CSU. I think Memphis would be ahead. What are the differences between the two? Is it closer than I thought? Memphis vs Denver, academics, athletic performance. I don't know, tough to sell me CSU over Memphis.

And I don't see BYU as all sports because of the Sunday factor. Opens the door for a Wichita State.

(07-26-2021 10:34 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  If any other P5 conferences make an offer to a Big12 school(s), they are gone. Assuming that doesn't happen and working with the known knowns, I predict adding UH and Cincy to get to 10.

From a short term competitive standpoint, that's a good conference in football and basketball, IMO. From a rights fees standpoint, not so much. And from a recruiting down the line standpoint it would be hit pretty hard, at least in terms of football.

not sure 10 is enough, this is a time where more depth is better. adding Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, and UCF and going to 12 is more attractive.

(07-23-2021 02:02 PM)BCSvsBS Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 01:57 PM)usffan Wrote:  

USFFan

It looks like someone's about to get whacked!

(07-26-2021 10:23 AM)PistolChad Wrote:  The Big 12 WILL absolutely live on unless this happens:

1. 6 of the 8 remaining schools vote to disband. The only way this would happen is if 6 of the 8 remaining schools get invitations to the PAC, B1G, SEC, or ACC. If 6 schools can get an invitation, then that gives the Big 12 80% of the schools (including OU and Texas) that will vote in their own best interests to disband the conference. This IS the scenario that Texas and OU are hoping for because then there is no cost to them (and the rest of the Big 12) for disbanding.

2. The Big 12 can merge with the PAC or ACC (no chance with B1G and SEC). Why this might be more attractive than you think? The Grant of Rights with OU and Texas until 2025. Believe me - the lawyers will ENSURE that that asset is owned by the merged conference and that is potentially worth up to $200M. Even OU and Texas and the SEC won't be willing to pay it to get OU and Texas in the SEC by 2022. How many schools would it take to complete a full merger? 8 of the 10. If the remaining 8 are for it, there is nothing Texas and OU can do about it.

If 6 of the remaining 8 schools cannot find a P4 conference to join AND if the PAC and ACC decline to do a full merger, then the Big 12 has 2 very real options.

1. Expand - what all of you enjoy talking about.
2. Stay at 8 - don't put it past the conference to do this. The Big 12 does still own the rights to both the "SouthWest Conference" and the "Big 8 Conference" (as well as "Big 6", "Big 7", "Big 14", "Big 16" BTW). Don't be completely surprised if they choose to dust off the old "Big 8" and copyrights and logos and just forge forward that way. Remember, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kansas, and Oklahoma State are from the original Big 8. The minimum number of schools for a conference is still only 6 schools. There has been NCAA debates about moving it up to 8, but that actually has never happened. There is NO WAY the NCAA votes to make the minimum 10 schools.

The Big 12 already evaluated all G5 schools and none were found to be worth inviting for expansion. What has changed that in those evaluations are 2 things:
1. Texas was against any other Texas schools from joining. That obviously isn't a factor anymore so who does that benefit? Houston. THE BIGGEST REASON Houston was never going to get an invitation was because the Big 12 already had FOUR schools in Texas including the flagship school - The University of Texas. With UT gone, Houston's attractiveness goes up - A LOT. Houston is a major market (and one that was hurt with A&M leaving the Big 12). Houston is a large public school - and yes that makes them more attractive. Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor together are not terribly attractive Texas-wide - ESPECIALLY in East Texas. Texas leaving the Big 12 was Houston's only chance of getting an invitation - now it has happened.
2. Texas wanted to be the only "Big Dog" in the Big 12. OU always fell in line with what Texas wanted to do and weren't a problem. What school could the Big 12 have possibly invited who would have bucked Texas to try to assert control that Texas DID NOT WANT the headache? BYU. BYU is notoriously difficult to deal with. (Ask the WAC - BYU was a driver to create the MWC. Ask the MWC - when BYU didn't get their way they went independent). Now BYU realizes they are NOT the "Notre Dame of the West" and Independence is a tough business. No other major conference will touch BYU with a 10 foot pole. The Big 12 now actually could believe BYU is worth the headache.

So there it is, I think the 4 most realistic options for the Big 12 are:
1. 6 of 8 schools find a new home and the Big 12 votes to disband. (Medium chance IMO)
2. Big 12 fully merges with the PAC or ACC. (Low chance IMO)
3. Big 12 goes forward with 8 members - i.e. Big 8 (High chance IMO)
4. Big 12 invites Houston and BYU (Best chance IMO)

A very thorough and seemingly reasonable assessment. Good work, PChad.

Best case post loss of Texas and OU

Nobody else’s leaves
Jump to 14 with

Houston
Memphis
Cincinnati
UCF
Colorado state
BYU

I think the Big 12 simply backfills. Even if it’s just like Kansas St, TCU, and Baylor left, that conference with the top schools from the AAC and MWC is still better than disbanding

Truth, is nobody knows, but I would think if anyone is offered a landing spot, they would take it. And the PAC, under new leadership, and wanting to get into Texas and the central time zone just might offer some of the schools a landing spot. We will see.

*** SMUstang ***

North: Cincinnati, WVU, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St

South: TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston, USF, UCF

@sIMandel

The Big 12 has to this point thumbed its nose at schools like UCF and Cincinnati.

I combed through TV data, and the reality is barely more people watch the non-Texas/OU schools than watch AAC games.

A deep dive through the numbers.

https://t.co/oAnXm7FhBk?amp=1

(07-27-2021 09:23 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  @sIMandel

The Big 12 has to this point thumbed its nose at schools like UCF and Cincinnati.

I combed through TV data, and the reality is barely more people watch the non-Texas/OU schools than watch AAC games.

A deep dive through the numbers.

https://t.co/oAnXm7FhBk?amp=1

Here's a summary of CCG viewers from 2019. The AAC went head to head against the SEC, and still pulled almost 3million viewers. This was Memphis vs Cinci. Whats equally as impressive is that the two teams played each other just a week before to end the regular season. So almost 3million viewers vs the SEC for a repeat game from a week prior.

And yes, many of the AAC's weekly games were outdrawing non-TX/non-OU B12 games. I believe Memphis had 3 or 4 reg season games with 1million+ viewers that year.

SEC- 13.7- Million 12/7, 4pm CBS
Big 10- 13.55 Million 12/7, 8pm FOX
Big 12- 8.7 Million 12/7, Noon ABC
PAC 12- 5.86 Million 12/6, 8pm ABC
ACC- 3.97 Million 12/7, 7:30pm ABC
AAC- 2.88 Million 12/7, 3:30pm ABC

(07-26-2021 10:37 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-26-2021 09:53 AM)esayem Wrote:  I don’t disagree, but Colorado is a pretty fast growing state and has a lot of upside. UCF is a mega school pumping out towns of people each year. If it is UCF, then look for OK State to move to the West division.

I have my doubts about UCF coming alone, but I'd also have doubts about CSU. I think Memphis would be ahead. What are the differences between the two? Is it closer than I thought? Memphis vs Denver, academics, athletic performance. I don't know, tough to sell me CSU over Memphis.

And I don't see BYU as all sports because of the Sunday factor. Opens the door for a Wichita State.

Colorado St. is well ahead academically. Colorado is also a destination for a lot of old Big 8 school grads.

Athleticaly, Memphis has the edge.

If they add BYU, that makes CSU a nice bridge.

(07-27-2021 09:23 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  @sIMandel

The Big 12 has to this point thumbed its nose at schools like UCF and Cincinnati.

I combed through TV data, and the reality is barely more people watch the non-Texas/OU schools than watch AAC games.

A deep dive through the numbers.

https://t.co/oAnXm7FhBk?amp=1

Comparing TV ratings is almost always a flawed and easily manipulated exercise. First and foremost, it is really hard to do apples to apples comparisons. The network, time of game competing games all influence ratings. The one other important variable is rank/ record. Games involving ranked teams that have national importance have better TV ratings than those between .500 teams. The other thing is that games involving ranked teams tend to get the networks and time slots that bring more viewers, so it is a bit of self fulfilling prophesy. I'm not questioning whether UT and OU have stronger brands. They clearly do. But it is really tough to fairly compare TV ratings without controlling for the variables that influence ratings.

(07-27-2021 10:33 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(07-27-2021 09:23 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  @sIMandel

The Big 12 has to this point thumbed its nose at schools like UCF and Cincinnati.

I combed through TV data, and the reality is barely more people watch the non-Texas/OU schools than watch AAC games.

A deep dive through the numbers.

https://t.co/oAnXm7FhBk?amp=1

Comparing TV ratings is almost always a flawed and easily manipulated exercise. First and foremost, it is really hard to do apples to apples comparisons. The network, time of game competing games all influence ratings. The one other important variable is rank/ record. Games involving ranked teams that have national importance have better TV ratings than those between .500 teams. The other thing is that games involving ranked teams tend to get the networks and time slots that bring more viewers, so it is a bit of self fulfilling prophesy. I'm not questioning whether UT and OU have stronger brands. They clearly do. But it is really tough to fairly compare TV ratings without controlling for the variables that influence ratings.

As John McClain said in the original Die Hard movie-- "Welcome to the party pal".

People have been talking shyte about Cincinnati's tv ratings for at least a decade---we supposedly "don't move the needle" or "bring eyeballs". Heck, they still are in some of the threads on this board.

As a background, Mandel grew up in suburban Cincinnati but went to Northwestern. He is an Ohio State fan and loves to poke the bear at UC. He's been doing it for years. The fact he of all people came out with a piece that paints the AAC in a strong light is telling.

I've been saying this for years--- there are maybe 15-20 programs that bring in most of the TV ratings.... behind that is another group of 50 or so schools who bring in comparable ratings to each other depending on what platform, who the opponent is, how they are faring in any given year, etc.

I keep hearing one thing over and over. BYU helps, if you can live with them, nobody else does.

Something that surprised me is how small Houston's fan base is. They only had 25,518 attend home games (average) in 2019, the pre-Covid year. BYU had 59,547 which is similar to the schools at the top of attendance not named Oklahoma or Texas (Iowa State 59,794, West Vriginia 55,907, Oklahoma State 54,817, Texas Tech 53,418). Houston's numbers are comparable to schools like Hawaii, Rice, USM, UAB and Troy. That wont cut it. Memphis and Cincy only beat out Kansas, who really are bad at football. UCF was a bit better, mind you their peak year with highest fan interest at 43,788, which would match small private TCU for 7th at 42,881. I suspect a longer view and 7-5 type seasons would see UCF closer to Cincy and Memphis just above Kansas only. ECU is in that territory, but the revenue is so low from gate that it probably looks like WSU of the Pac-12, heavy on students who don't pay anything for the seats.

These figures more or less correlate to the 2014 NYT study of the size of college football fan bases. Some have grown a bit some have shrunk a bit.

Bottom line, only BYU increases your value per school average. UCF or Cincy don't hurt you as much as others, if you absolutely need another school. But nobody else is worth talking to.

(07-27-2021 09:23 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  @sIMandel

The Big 12 has to this point thumbed its nose at schools like UCF and Cincinnati.

I combed through TV data, and the reality is barely more people watch the non-Texas/OU schools than watch AAC games.

A deep dive through the numbers.

https://t.co/oAnXm7FhBk?amp=1

That AAC number is likely inflated by their title games and the Big 12's title games being omitted due to OU.

Take out the two title games where the champ weekend tv window is doing much of the heavy lifting and we see the AAC number drop to 921k.

Also split tv windows with two games on ABC in different parts of the country are likely overstating the AAC. Mandel like most journalists probably went with the simple analysis rather than splitting the viewers for each game by the markets they were on ABC in. The two games like that I saw in 2018 had over 3M and 2M viewers and were more due to USC vs ASU and Washington-Oregon. Inaccurately counting that would spike the number.

I did analysis a few years back on league tv numbers and it wasn't even close even without Texas and OU once you made the games per school even.

The AAC does much better than most give it credit for, not taking anything away from them. That said so do the remaining 8.