I’m SURE if UA and ASU get enough $$ from expansion, they’ll be JUST FINE!

If the B1G only takes Kansas at this time this is how it could play out.

B1G (Kansas)
PAC (OSU, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston)
XII (SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, BYU)

North: BYU, K-State, Iowa St, Cincinnati, WVU
South: Baylor, SMU, Memphis, UCF, USF

I wouldn't discount Houston being able to jump Baylor because of the media market for a PAC slot. PAC I think would want to concentrate expansion into Texas.

XII will need a Florida presence for bowl games to get a quasi-P5 level bowl package.

(07-24-2021 10:47 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  If the B1G only takes Kansas at this time this is how it could play out.

B1G (Kansas)
PAC (OSU, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston) ...

... except for it to play out that way, the PAC-12 has to invite OSU, Texas Tech, TCU and Houston, which won't happen, so no, that is not a way it could play out in reality.

It can only play out that way in the hysteria of a discussion board a couple of days after big news breaks which pulls in people who are looking at it as a game of Conference Realignment Risk played by college realignment fans.

(07-24-2021 10:52 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(07-24-2021 10:47 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  If the B1G only takes Kansas at this time this is how it could play out.

B1G (Kansas)
PAC (OSU, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston) ...

... except for it to play out that way, the PAC-12 has to invite OSU, Texas Tech, TCU and Houston, which won't happen, so no, that is not a way it could play out in reality.

It can only play out that way in the hysteria of a discussion board a couple of days after big news breaks which pulls in people who are looking at it as a game of Conference Realignment Risk played by college realignment fans.

I believe the PAC will take the opportunity to raid the XII since it now can.

Kansas if it doesn't get a B1G offer will take a PAC offer in a split second.

As I give this more reflection, my (WAG) opinion about what will happen has evolved. A few key points

1) The sentiment among the remaining Big 12 members will be to move on. Even taking a bit of a financial hit (not too big).
- four years is a long time, and human nature is to move on as soon as possible
- program visibility and likely financially it's better to have them stay through the end of GOR, so a balance must be struck
2) the CFP will expand to 12 schools, probably starting with the 2023-24 school year
3) Big 12 distributed $37.7m average per school in 2019-20 and $34.5m in 2020-21 (COVID pulled it down a bit)
- Media contracts with ESPN and CBS have membership clause that is triggered by departures
4) ESPN is paying for the Big 12 CCG each of the next four years (through the 2024 football season)
5) all the remaining schools are part of the Big 12 digital network on ESPN+, where each provides one FB game and combined up to 70 MBB games
- this is part of the $40m ($6.7m per year roughly) that ESPN is paying the league, along with CCG (link)
6) Ket date, the GOR runs until June 30, 2025 (4 years left)

The CFP expanding in the 2023 season I think is the logical break point. This makes sense as to when the B12 parts ways with Texas and Oklahoma. The $75m thrown out as settlement seems logical, as 50% of that can be had by withholding from each, some $37.5m, from their 2022-23 season distributions as they exit, the rest collected over a period of five years.

The reasoning is simple, the remaining Big 12 schools will not want Texas or Oklahoma to take the B12 champion's playoff spot in 2023 or 2024. That should provide high profile for the conference's remaining schools which they currently need Texas and Oklahoma for, and it could help them retain much of the money ESPN is giving them for the last two years of the contract, and it might not trigger a reduction beyond the share Texas and Oklahoma are getting. (It will be partly offset by ending the LHN payments.)

July 1, 2023 is thus the date I think the schools join the SEC.

As for replacements in the Big 12, I am starting to lean toward none, the league remaining at 8. The CCG argues for 10, but

BYU is a big enough brand but a logistical problem, possible compatibility issue. They would definitely increase the digital reach.

Although it's football first, I think Basketball will play a key part in selection. That helps Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati and Colorado State (and BYU some), but hurts the Florida schools (lower resources thrown at it, marginal fan support - not basketball cultures). The geography of these schools are also good, not stretching the footprint that much.Colorado State is the weakest in football, although they throw the most resources at it. Cincinnati is likely the strongest at football with a strong stable coaching situation.

I have no clue who gets picked, they are all very close in value, except BYU who is both greater in value and also significantly more problematic. Each has pluses and minuses. Whomever is hot this fall probably gets the inside track. But they are so close whomever is best at schmooze and booze probably wins. ESPN will play a heavy role in the selection.

Bottom line 2023 is the year the lineup changes.

Although its an outside shot at this point the XII could take Temple and UConn FB only to go to 16.

Have a north division with both BYU and UConn FB only which also includes K-State, Memphis, Iowa St, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Temple.

Or just make a Northeast XII pod.

I:Cincinnati, West Virginia, Temple, UConn
II: East Carolina, UCF, USF, Memphis
III: BYU, Colorado St, Iowa St, K-State
IV: SMU, Baylor, Tulane, Tulsa

Pods to smooth out the geography somewhat.

I would think the left overs of the Big12 would ultimately stick as a pack adding the best of the best from the Mountain West and from the AAC.

Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, adding teams of Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF and USF, Boise State, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, BYU if they can operate playing on Sunday and if not oh well. Also if I were them I would inquire about adding Arizona and Arizona State from the PAC

If they wanted to stay within their footprint I would go this route.

Baylor, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St, Iowa St

Kansas, KSU, Arizona, ASU, Colorado St, BYU

Now that doesn’t have the appeal of having Texas and Oklahoma, but it doesn’t drop off that much IMO.

The Big 12 stays the same for the next two years. The question is whether Texas and OU move in 2023 or 2025. The proposed changes in the CFP won't take place until 2023. So until that 4th 3 year cycle of the CFP and Sugar Bowl contract occur, there will be no move.

I really think nothing happens. The Pac-12 should look at a Kansas and Oklahoma State add. Other than that, Houston and Texas Tech?

I could see an AAC-Big 12 semi merger + BYU football with a 9 game conference schedule. I left out Wichita St., but they could be included to further help basketball if Kansas and Kansas St. wouldn't try to block them.

Big 8: Iowa St., Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma St.
SWC: Baylor, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech
Northeast: Cincy, Navy (football), Temple, WVU
South: BYU (football), Memphis, South Florida, UCF

You're playing in Texas annually, Florida every other year. Geography isn't too much bigger besides BYU for football. Question is does this alignment maximize money/exposure for each team.

(07-24-2021 12:46 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Although its an outside shot at this point the XII could take Temple and UConn FB only to go to 16.

I'd like to see some type of 16-18 team merger of AAC and Big 12. If Kansas and/or other leave, I think it could happen. The 11 AAC schools plus the 5 or so left behinds.

The more I think about it, I think the best plan going forward is 12: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF, with USF being the alternate if BYU turns them down.

My reasoning: the Big 12 needs to distance itself from the G5 and the best way to do it is cherry-pick their best. I think that the AAC is deep enough at the top that you need to dig a little deeper than just 2 to fully decapitate it. It’s not like the WAC in 2010 where you take away Boise and there’s not much left.

I picked the schools I did based on fan support, academics, recent success, and recruiting grounds.

(07-24-2021 08:47 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The more I think about it, I think the best plan going forward is 12: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF, with USF being the alternate if BYU turns them down.

My reasoning: the Big 12 needs to distance itself from the G5 and the best way to do it is cherry-pick their best. I think that the AAC is deep enough at the top that you need to dig a little deeper than just 2 to fully decapitate it. It’s not like the WAC in 2010 where you take away Boise and there’s not much left.

I picked the schools I did based on fan support, academics, recent success, and recruiting grounds.

I believe this is the most likely scenario. I would only offer BYU as a football only member to keep double round robin scheduling for men's basketball and avoiding BYU's no play on Sundays. USF is the 1st alternate as a full member with Memphis 2nd because of their football and basketball programs.

If you look at the ceiling: UCF, USF, Houston, and BYU are the best choices. Huge enrollments (plus BYU and their religious following) and they’re pumping out alumni. It’s just a better bet on NIL contributions etc.


*Cincinnati is up there too and is a safe bet as well, especially if BYU can’t get the votes.

do any of the B12 schools add the $$$ to make expansion by the B10 or P12 worthwhile? Not sure if they do. IMO B12 adds good BB programs with competitive FB that the current B12 members can add some wins and increase their chances of making the playoffs. 1st 2 I'd go with Houston and Cincy. To get to 12 invite Memphis and let's say BYU with SMU and UCF/USF also getting some consideration

(07-23-2021 11:53 AM)Artifice Wrote:  Kansas is going to bounce to the B1G...

I'm not so sure. Set aside the issue of how valuable KU athletics is, Kansas has some issues right now that besmirch the two things it does have - hoops and a decent academic rep thanks to AAU.

Hoops is under a big NCAA cloud right now. And no, the NCAA hasn't gone away just yet.

Maybe even more important is the recent scandal that resulted in the departures of Les Miles and Jeff Long. That involved allegations of sexual misconduct, which is a hot-wire issue for liberal activists on campus. I can imagine someone speaking up in a PAC or B1G meeting and saying that we don't want to touch Kansas right now because that would likely draw prominent criticism.

So IMO, Kansas has some baggage right now, which is the worst time to be having it.

A less likely but still possible scenario is Kansas and OK State both going to the SEC as well.

(07-25-2021 10:27 AM)Claw Wrote:  A less likely but still possible scenario is Kansas and OK State both going to the SEC as well.

IMO, the SEC would have no interest in either school. They would be mouths to feed from an SEC point of view.

Not that I am necessarily the Oracle about what the SEC point of view is, LOL. But I don't see why the SEC would want them at all.

(07-25-2021 10:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(07-25-2021 10:27 AM)Claw Wrote:  A less likely but still possible scenario is Kansas and OK State both going to the SEC as well.

IMO, the SEC would have no interest in either school. They would be mouths to feed from an SEC point of view.

Not that I am necessarily the Oracle about what the SEC point of view is, LOL. But I don't see why the SEC would want them at all.

The SEC works because of geography, not accountants. They know that. Those schools fit with OK and Mizzou. That type of fit is how you become the only game that matters, and being the only game that matters is what drives the money.