They will again be asked to change their name by CFB fans. Now neither part of their name applies. And, honestly, if they settle for a more regional backfill, they could probably benefit from dropping the doormat “Big 12” name.

(07-22-2021 07:03 AM)ken d Wrote:  Most of the comments here deal with what will happen to the Big 12 in the next few years. Who will they add, if anyone? Will they get poached further? Etc.

I want to know what the remaining member schools will be like 10 or more years down the road. We can look at the data from the past 10 years and say the 8 remaining teams are still P5 level based on their football performance if not their brand power. But what will the absence of OU and UT from their schedules do to their recruiting? To their attendance? Their media revenues?

I believe that within five years we will already see their on field performance drop, maybe dramatically. Will OK State, Kansas State, Baylor and TCU be able to sustain their recent successes? I doubt it. Will they be able to retain their coaching staffs, or will those schools just be stepping stones for up and coming coaches?

Ironically, this bombshell makes it easier for the remaining teams to expand by adding top AAC programs. Without OU and UT, the average media payout of the B12 is likely to be less than half what it is today, which means the most valuable AAC properties wouldn't dilute the per school payouts by much if at all. And with no members left who would be financially attractive to any other P5 conference, they could actually be more stable than they were in 2020.

But will they be viewed by the media and fans as a power conference in ten years? I doubt it.

A strong post, ken d. I agree with most of this.

(07-22-2021 08:11 AM)Crayton Wrote:  They will again be asked to change their name by CFB fans. Now neither part of their name applies. And, honestly, if they settle for a more regional backfill, they could probably benefit from dropping the doormat “Big 12” name.

They'll go back to 12 eventually to satisfy the XII name now that TV money won't be such a big factor.

I'm not sure if the PAC will look at the XII situation and try to capitalize or just feel like they've moved up the pecking order of conferences with UT/OU leaving.

At the moment I think the XII will add 4 (UCF, UC, UH, UM) with 12 as the objective instead of more losses to other power conferences. It could be 2 initially in the next 6 months and then another 2 selected in 2023 to time up with the conclusion of the media deal.

(07-21-2021 06:40 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Note: South Florida has reduced the budget since the Big East money ran out; TCU makes SMU redundant; Rice and Tulane were only on the list for academics; Temple is too far away. Thus I eliminate these schools from serious consideration.

Throwing the bulls#it flag on this. Although I don't have a year by year budget, here are several years worth:

2013-14 budget = $46.8MM (https://www.news-press.com/story/sports/.../71135340/)
2018-19 budget = $53,569,756 (https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/)
2019-20 budget = $59,531,111 (https://ope.ed.gov/athletics/#/institution/details)

That first year was definitely during Big East money time. The current budget is a 27% increase.

I'm not saying USF will be on the front line of any potential realignment, but let's not start spreading outright lies about them...

USFFan

You never know too if the ACC would try to poach WVU as a proactive measure whereby UCF could be a logical pairing.

The XII I think will want at least one Florida school for bowl games in the Sunshine state. That works out in USF's favor.

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.

Maybe. The Big 12 has a TV contract that is paying them $2.6 billion over 13 years or about $20 million per school per year. Before this news of UT and OU possibly leaving for the SEC, the assumption was the next TV contract would be better. Now it does not and if it is in the ballpark of the AAC TV contract, then it may not make sense to leave the AAC.

If any of the remaining eight are able to bail out to another power conference, that will be the end of the Big 12 as a power conference. I am not sure if they are there with the eight remaining schools. West Virginia is in a terrible position at this time. They could lose revenue, fall from being considered a power conference school and still be stuck with the travel expenses.

(07-22-2021 08:23 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 08:11 AM)Crayton Wrote:  They will again be asked to change their name by CFB fans. Now neither part of their name applies. And, honestly, if they settle for a more regional backfill, they could probably benefit from dropping the doormat “Big 12” name.

They'll go back to 12 eventually to satisfy the XII name now that TV money won't be such a big factor.

I'm not sure if the PAC will look at the XII situation and try to capitalize or just feel like they've moved up the pecking order of conferences with UT/OU leaving.

At the moment I think the XII will add 4 (UCF, UC, UH, UM) with 12 as the objective instead of more losses to other power conferences. It could be 2 initially in the next 6 months and then another 2 selected in 2023 to time up with the conclusion of the media deal.

You may be right, but I’m thinking BYU instead of Memphis. Then the AAC may replace Houston with Rice, or Marshall to replace Cincinnati.

*** SMUstang ***

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.

Hey Frank,

Do you think an 8 team Big 12 could recruit USC and 7 friends to form a Big 16 with two cut and dry divisions?

It wouldn't be as strong as the SEC or Big 10 but it could probably stay on par with the ACC.

Or is the PAC 12 too strong despite its recent troubles?

(07-22-2021 12:45 AM)OhioBoilermaker Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 12:29 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 10:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Depends on what happens to the remaining 8 schools. Kansas will find a home somewhere (ACC or Big 10). Does OK St and TT get interest from Pac 12? Does ACC show interest in WVU? Until we know the answer to those questions, we can't accurately predict what will happen. But one this is absolutely sure, the remaining 8 schools WILL try to find life boats to other conferences. If they don't find any, they may try to rebuild B12.

KU might get love from the B1G or ACC. But I think not. The B1G was caught off guard. They have to play the long game, go for properties than help in the long run. A small plains state that is of shrinking importance and zero recruiting value may not be the best value. The properties that help are on the Atlantic Coast in the ACC. Schools like Virginia, North Carolina, Duke and Florida State. So you start working on them targeting the start of the next decade to make your counter strike.

The ACC is more likely to be interested in Kansas (basketball), Baylor or TCU (Texas toehold) than West Virginia (they have Pitt already, so no need). But probably they don't take any.

Flat no on the Pac-12 front. Only if Texas and Oklahoma came would they take the little brothers. On their own they are worth nothing, far below the mean of the Pac-12, bring down valuations. On top of that their academics would be at the very bottom of the Pac-12 and their level of research budget far below the rest of the Pac-12. Religious affiliation rules out Baylor and TCU, as well as the fact that neither is a research school, and both are in far more valuable parts of Texas than Lubbock.

The reality is, while those schools may try to sell themselves to other power conferences, they don't have enough to offer for anyone to be interested. If they did bring more value then Texas and Oklahoma would stay.

This is the P5 equivalent of the SLC. A group of schools with not enough value for their rivals to offer an invite. So they have a kind of stability.

I could see the Pac taking say, Kansas and Tech. Central time zone teams could help them move their games earlier, which is a big obstacle to getting their games on east coast tv at a desirable time. Kansas is comparable in research funding to Washington State, ahead of Oregon State and Oregon. Texas Tech is ahead of Oregon.

This is my take as well. Kansas is still a valuable property and Tech is from Texas. I don't see the ACC or B1G expanding because ND won't commit to either and I don't see either going past 16.

(07-22-2021 10:40 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.

Hey Frank,

Do you think an 8 team Big 12 could recruit USC and 7 friends to form a Big 16 with two cut and dry divisions?

It wouldn't be as strong as the SEC or Big 10 but it could probably stay on par with the ACC.

Or is the PAC 12 too strong despite its recent troubles?

I will answer that. No. There is no reason for Pac-12 schools to jump onto the Titanic, when they could just choose who they might want to save. The Pac-12 Media Day is next Tuesday in LA and I am sure that reporters will be asking about the Big 12. The answers could be interesting. I think that they are not interested in expansion, but I also think they also need to take a look at what's left in the Big 12 and see if there are any potential targets that might be fits for the conference and help with the next TV contract.

(07-22-2021 11:34 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:40 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.

Hey Frank,

Do you think an 8 team Big 12 could recruit USC and 7 friends to form a Big 16 with two cut and dry divisions?

It wouldn't be as strong as the SEC or Big 10 but it could probably stay on par with the ACC.

Or is the PAC 12 too strong despite its recent troubles?

I will answer that. No. There is no reason for Pac-12 schools to jump onto the Titanic, when they could just choose who they might want to save. The Pac-12 Media Day is next Tuesday in LA and I am sure that reporters will be asking about the Big 12. The answers could be interesting. I think that they are not interested in expansion, but I also think they also need to take a look at what's left in the Big 12 and see if there are any potential targets that might be fits for the conference and help with the next TV contract.

By Big 16 I don't mean the current Big 12 and all the schools in that conference.

I mean a brand new conference with Texas and USC as the team captains of each division

USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona St

Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Colorado, BYU

(07-22-2021 11:40 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 11:34 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:40 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.

Hey Frank,

Do you think an 8 team Big 12 could recruit USC and 7 friends to form a Big 16 with two cut and dry divisions?

It wouldn't be as strong as the SEC or Big 10 but it could probably stay on par with the ACC.

Or is the PAC 12 too strong despite its recent troubles?

I will answer that. No. There is no reason for Pac-12 schools to jump onto the Titanic, when they could just choose who they might want to save. The Pac-12 Media Day is next Tuesday in LA and I am sure that reporters will be asking about the Big 12. The answers could be interesting. I think that they are not interested in expansion, but I also think they also need to take a look at what's left in the Big 12 and see if there are any potential targets that might be fits for the conference and help with the next TV contract.

By Big 16 I don't mean the current Big 12 and all the schools in that conference.

I mean a brand new conference with Texas and USC as the team captains of each division

USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona St

Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Colorado, BYU

That sound you heard was every BYU fan climaxing at once at the thought of BYU being in a power conference while Utah is suddenly on the outside looking in...

USFFan

Pretty sure Texas won't be captaining a Big 16 draft. Let's keep up, people.

(07-22-2021 11:40 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 11:34 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 10:40 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-21-2021 06:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Sh*t rolls downhill in conference realignment.

If only because of exit fees and other costs (such as NCAA Tournament credits), the Big 12 would still be in a much stronger position to poach who it wants from the G5 leagues even if it lost Kansas on top of Texas and Oklahoma.

Hey Frank,

Do you think an 8 team Big 12 could recruit USC and 7 friends to form a Big 16 with two cut and dry divisions?

It wouldn't be as strong as the SEC or Big 10 but it could probably stay on par with the ACC.

Or is the PAC 12 too strong despite its recent troubles?

I will answer that. No. There is no reason for Pac-12 schools to jump onto the Titanic, when they could just choose who they might want to save. The Pac-12 Media Day is next Tuesday in LA and I am sure that reporters will be asking about the Big 12. The answers could be interesting. I think that they are not interested in expansion, but I also think they also need to take a look at what's left in the Big 12 and see if there are any potential targets that might be fits for the conference and help with the next TV contract.

By Big 16 I don't mean the current Big 12 and all the schools in that conference.

I mean a brand new conference with Texas and USC as the team captains of each division

USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Arizona St

Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Colorado, BYU

No. That is never going to fly. The Pac-12 would take UT and OU, but am not sure about anyone else. A big 16 only works if Texas and Oklahoma are in the mix and that is just not going to happen.

Remember when WVU jumped the gun and joined the Big XII when they could have waited and been invited to the ACC?

If the remaining Big 12 schools hold together they'll be adding who ESPN tells them to.

Some combo of BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, UH, SMU, USF, or Memphis. Possibly Navy, AFA, or Tulane. Boise probably too far relative to value but longshot.

If they don't it will mean several had options to join other P5 leagues and the rest probably link up with the AAC.

(07-22-2021 01:58 PM)esayem Wrote:  Remember when WVU jumped the gun and joined the Big XII when they could have waited and been invited to the ACC?

yup


thats one of those things that will sting in perpetuity for the Mountaineers.

even if they land on their feet, it still wouldnt be their best possible outcome of having taken MD spot in the ACC

One thing I expect from the Big 12 3.0 is parity. I think recruiting is going to take a huge slide. The resources won’t be there to retain coaches and keep up in the facilities arms race. Recruits will pass over Big 12 programs for a change at big NIL money elsewhere.

NIL and the Super-SEC are going to wreck college sports.

(07-22-2021 01:58 PM)esayem Wrote:  Remember when WVU jumped the gun and joined the Big XII when they could have waited and been invited to the ACC?

As if WVU in October 2011 had any inkling Maryland was leaving the ACC.

(07-22-2021 01:58 PM)esayem Wrote:  Remember when WVU jumped the gun and joined the Big XII when they could have waited and been invited to the ACC?

This got me thinking, is WVU to the Big East even a remote possibility? Independence isn't easy but they're in a fantastic geographic position for it.