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What will happen to the Big 12?
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Fresno St. Alum Online
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Post: #41
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 07:17 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 07:09 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 07:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  You can bet Texas and Oklahoma aren’t the only Big 12 programs talking to other conferences. Kansas is probably already on the phone with The Big Ten.

Any school not in the SEC and Big Ten is making phone calls.

I don’t think Clemson and Florida State like Florida and South Carolina getting richer.

Are you sure about this? I can imaging Ohio State and Michigan are calling Birmingham at this moment.
SEC to 20 w Ohio St., Michigan, Clemson, Florida St. SEC championship is now the national title gm lol
07-21-2021 09:39 PM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #42
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
If the plan is still to expand the CFP to 12 teams with the top 6 conference champions, then the Big 12 will still have plenty of incentive to stick around.

The concept of the P5 will be gone but that does not mean it will now be a P4. Instead there will be a clear pecking order now established in conference revenue

1. SEC (with Tex and Ok)
2. Big Ten
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12 (with Hou, Cincy, Memphis, USF, UCF, BYU)
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

So the Big Ten, ACC or PAC won't expand unless it adds value to their conference. Otherwise they will stand pat to hold their place in line. They will still get at least 1 team in the playoffs almost every year.

The only thing the Big Ten and ACC could do to keep up with the SEC is for the best teams to leave the Big Ten and ACC and form a new super conference. Maybe starting with PSU, Mich, OSU, Wisc, Clem, FSU, ND and adding 5 more. Of course I can't see those Big Ten schools doing that to their conference mates, so I think the Big Ten and ACC are stuck.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2021 09:46 PM by goofus.)
07-21-2021 09:43 PM
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BraveKnight Online
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Post: #43
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 09:43 PM)goofus Wrote:  If the plan is still to expand the CFP to 12 teams with the top 6 conference champions, then the Big 12 will still have plenty of incentive to stick around.

The concept of the P5 will be gone but that does not mean it will now be a P4. Instead there will be a clear pecking order now established in conference revenue

1. SEC (with Tex and Ok)
2. Big Ten
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12 (with Hou, Cincy, Memphis, USF, UCF, BYU)
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

So the Big Ten, ACC or PAC won't expand unless it adds value to their conference. Otherwise they will stand pat to hold their place in line. They will still get at least 1 team in the playoffs almost every each year.

The only thing the Big Ten and ACC could do to keep up with the SEC is for the best teams to leave the Big Ten and ACC and form a new super conference. Maybe starting with PSU, Mich, OSU, Wisc, Clem, FSU, ND and adding 5 more. Of course I can't see those Big Ten schools doing that to their conference mates, so I think the Big Ten and ACC are stuck.
If the AAC loses all of those teams, I would have to think the MWC is the #6 conference at that point.
07-21-2021 09:45 PM
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Pony94 Offline
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Post: #44
What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 09:45 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 09:43 PM)goofus Wrote:  If the plan is still to expand the CFP to 12 teams with the top 6 conference champions, then the Big 12 will still have plenty of incentive to stick around.

The concept of the P5 will be gone but that does not mean it will now be a P4. Instead there will be a clear pecking order now established in conference revenue

1. SEC (with Tex and Ok)
2. Big Ten
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12 (with Hou, Cincy, Memphis, USF, UCF, BYU)
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

So the Big Ten, ACC or PAC won't expand unless it adds value to their conference. Otherwise they will stand pat to hold their place in line. They will still get at least 1 team in the playoffs almost every each year.

The only thing the Big Ten and ACC could do to keep up with the SEC is for the best teams to leave the Big Ten and ACC and form a new super conference. Maybe starting with PSU, Mich, OSU, Wisc, Clem, FSU, ND and adding 5 more. Of course I can't see those Big Ten schools doing that to their conference mates, so I think the Big Ten and ACC are stuck.
If the AAC loses all of those teams, I would have to think the MWC is the #6 conference at that point.


Aresco moves to the MWC?
07-21-2021 09:47 PM
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Fresno St. Alum Online
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Post: #45
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
I hope the big 12 goes to 12, strength in numbers, because sec won't be the last conf. calling for B12 members. Cincy, UCF, Houston, BYU 1st(if no BYU then USF) But there's that whole Tulane is such a good school they were near the top of the list thing.
07-21-2021 09:49 PM
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RUScarlets Online
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Post: #46
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
The only road I see to a fatal dissolution of the Big 12 (and this is probably more 2030 cycle relevant than it is today) is:

KU vastly improves the football brand and goes to the PAC 12 with KState or B1G with A&M or Mizzou getting pried out of the SEC (good luck cracking that nut).

Or the ACC snags A&M in the next cycle spurring the SEC to take on OKie St as a Sooner rival. TTech also a potential backfill for the SEC similar to TCU in the Big 12.
07-21-2021 09:49 PM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #47
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 09:45 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 09:43 PM)goofus Wrote:  If the plan is still to expand the CFP to 12 teams with the top 6 conference champions, then the Big 12 will still have plenty of incentive to stick around.

The concept of the P5 will be gone but that does not mean it will now be a P4. Instead there will be a clear pecking order now established in conference revenue

1. SEC (with Tex and Ok)
2. Big Ten
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12 (with Hou, Cincy, Memphis, USF, UCF, BYU)
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

So the Big Ten, ACC or PAC won't expand unless it adds value to their conference. Otherwise they will stand pat to hold their place in line. They will still get at least 1 team in the playoffs almost every each year.

The only thing the Big Ten and ACC could do to keep up with the SEC is for the best teams to leave the Big Ten and ACC and form a new super conference. Maybe starting with PSU, Mich, OSU, Wisc, Clem, FSU, ND and adding 5 more. Of course I can't see those Big Ten schools doing that to their conference mates, so I think the Big Ten and ACC are stuck.
If the AAC loses all of those teams, I would have to think the MWC is the #6 conference at that point.

Yes, I guess it depends on how many teams from the AAC that the Big 12 ends up taking.
07-21-2021 09:50 PM
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BraveKnight Online
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Post: #48
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 09:49 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  I hope the big 12 goes to 12, strength in numbers, because sec won't be the last conf. calling for B12 members. Cincy, UCF, Houston, BYU 1st(if no BYU then USF) But there's that whole Tulane is such a good school they were near the top of the list thing.
I think Memphis would be before usf at this point in time.
07-21-2021 09:51 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #49
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 09:45 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 09:43 PM)goofus Wrote:  If the plan is still to expand the CFP to 12 teams with the top 6 conference champions, then the Big 12 will still have plenty of incentive to stick around.

The concept of the P5 will be gone but that does not mean it will now be a P4. Instead there will be a clear pecking order now established in conference revenue

1. SEC (with Tex and Ok)
2. Big Ten
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12 (with Hou, Cincy, Memphis, USF, UCF, BYU)
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

So the Big Ten, ACC or PAC won't expand unless it adds value to their conference. Otherwise they will stand pat to hold their place in line. They will still get at least 1 team in the playoffs almost every each year.

The only thing the Big Ten and ACC could do to keep up with the SEC is for the best teams to leave the Big Ten and ACC and form a new super conference. Maybe starting with PSU, Mich, OSU, Wisc, Clem, FSU, ND and adding 5 more. Of course I can't see those Big Ten schools doing that to their conference mates, so I think the Big Ten and ACC are stuck.
If the AAC loses all of those teams, I would have to think the MWC is the #6 conference at that point.

Agree.
07-21-2021 09:55 PM
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Post: #50
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
Big 14

SMU,TCU, Baylor, Houston, Texas Tech, BYU, Colorado state

Ok state, KU, K state, Iowa State, Cincinnati, WVU, UCF
07-21-2021 10:21 PM
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Post: #51
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
If this happens, I don’t see anyone adding enough value to big 10. ACC will think about KU and WVU but don’t think they add enough. TCU with Tech or OSU or KU to pac 12 is a possibility. Most likely that doesn’t happen either.

So 8 team Big 12 adds BYU and Houston. Then if networks pay they go to 12 with either the Florida twins or Cincinnati + 1 of UCF/SMU/CSU/Tulane
07-21-2021 10:29 PM
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Post: #52
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
Big 12, or rather the little-8, will add two schools to finish out the CBS/ESPN contract, giving the newbies a bit reduced share (like 50% of the $32m or whatever they get now). They will work with ESPN to select two. Without Texas blocking things, BYU and Memphis will be on the table. Cincy, Houston, UCF and Colorado State will also be in play. They will pick only two because that maximizes the revenue for the existing schools and minimizes brand dilution. If you put a gun to my head I'd say BYU will be the first one, and one of the American schools the 2nd -- whichever ESPN says brings the best viewership numbers. They little-8 will also have a sh$t pile of exit fee cash from UT and OU for getting out their GOR to spread among each other.

When the TV contract expires, and they need a new one, they will again work with ESPN and decide whether to add two more schools if that gets them more money per school. As they get to the late 2020s that exit fee money will dry up. Some hard choices will have to be made in their athletic departments (the newbies may not notice much if they come in on 50% share, as the new contract will likely be similar to that; but the little 8 will be way short, around $20m from their prior earnings).
07-21-2021 10:35 PM
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Post: #53
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 10:35 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Big 12, or rather the little-8, will add two schools to finish out the CBS/ESPN contract, giving the newbies a bit reduced share (like 50% of the $32m or whatever they get now). They will work with ESPN to select two. Without Texas blocking things, BYU and Memphis will be on the table. Cincy, Houston, UCF and Colorado State will also be in play. They will pick only two because that maximizes the revenue for the existing schools and minimizes brand dilution. [b]If you put a gun to my head I'd say BYU will be the first one, and one of the American schools the 2nd[/b] -- whichever ESPN says brings the best viewership numbers. They little-8 will also have a sh$t pile of exit fee cash from UT and OU for getting out their GOR to spread among each other.

When the TV contract expires, and they need a new one, they will again work with ESPN and decide whether to add two more schools if that gets them more money per school. As they get to the late 2020s that exit fee money will dry up. Some hard choices will have to be made in their athletic departments (the newbies may not notice much if they come in on 50% share, as the new contract will likely be similar to that; but the little 8 will be way short, around $20m from their prior earnings).

This is the only scenario where the realignment dominos would stop with the Big 12. If only one AAC school is poached, the conference will be fine with 10 schools in both football and basketball.
07-21-2021 10:40 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #54
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
I think it's the most likely scenario

1) fewer schools added dilutes the brand less
2) fewer schools means the money is split fewer ways

As for the American they might stand pat on 9 if both schools were taken from them. It's still enough for an 8 game schedule. Same principle at work, don't dilute the brand with an inferior offering, so split the pie too many ways.

The little-8 may also decide to swallow their anger for the money, make Texas and Oklahoma play all four of the remaining years in the Big 12, figuring that is higher monetary and profile value than negotiating a hefty early exit fee to move on.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2021 10:50 PM by Stugray2.)
07-21-2021 10:48 PM
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Post: #55
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
I think that the Big 12 takes the money. The main question I have is should they expand to 12 when they leave to allow or hope the new schools have good years to help with the new contract. With Texas gone would it be to late for a Big 12 network to be developed?
07-21-2021 10:55 PM
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Post: #56
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
Depends on what happens to the remaining 8 schools. Kansas will find a home somewhere (ACC or Big 10). Does OK St and TT get interest from Pac 12? Does ACC show interest in WVU? Until we know the answer to those questions, we can't accurately predict what will happen. But one this is absolutely sure, the remaining 8 schools WILL try to find life boats to other conferences. If they don't find any, they may try to rebuild B12.
(This post was last modified: 07-21-2021 10:59 PM by BullsFanInTX.)
07-21-2021 10:58 PM
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Post: #57
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
Kansas will have options.

If I'm the ACC I look long and hard at making Kansas #16 before the Big 10 can.
07-21-2021 10:59 PM
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Post: #58
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
What makes any of you think UT and OU would leave before the contract ends? It’s not that long. 4 years.
07-21-2021 11:01 PM
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Post: #59
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
BYU is the most valuable school out there. For a B12 w/o Texas and OU, Houston becomes essential.
07-21-2021 11:03 PM
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RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 11:01 PM)bullet Wrote:  What makes any of you think UT and OU would leave before the contract ends? It’s not that long. 4 years.

I bet they get it cut in half. They aren't leaving this year so really we are talking about 3 years. This year plus a true lame duck year next year would be my guess. Big 12 will take a nice settlement to let them out early
07-21-2021 11:06 PM
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