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What will happen to the Big 12?
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domer1978 Offline
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Post: #101
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 03:00 PM)ManleyPointer Wrote:  
(07-22-2021 01:58 PM)esayem Wrote:  Remember when WVU jumped the gun and joined the Big XII when they could have waited and been invited to the ACC?

This got me thinking, is WVU to the Big East even a remote possibility? Independence isn't easy but they're in a fantastic geographic position to make it happen.

Independence in the world of NIL and uncertainty is a dangerous choice. Very few schools can do it and be successful. Texas is one that could but they scoffed at the idea. That tells you that there are roadblocks to being a successful indy that are not worth it to many.
07-22-2021 03:02 PM
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UCbball21 Offline
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Post: #102
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
If Texas and OU go to the SEC then I think the Big 12 will take the following schools in order.

Back to 10...
1) Cincinnati - Strongest football/basketball combination, solid academics, a large endowment, good media market, Ohio FB recruiting, and provides a natural rival with WVU.

2) BYU - National media market, good academics, already an independent, and the strongest historic football pedigree.

Back to 12...
3) UCF - Great football, improving basketball, great media market, solid academics, Florida FB/BB recruiting, and a massive enrollment.

4) Houston - Massive media market, solid football, great basketball, and improving academics. Helps fill the void A&M left.

Outside looking in (will add if additional members are lost)
5) SMU - Massive media market, NIL can bring back the Pony Express, great academics, improving football, and solid basketball. Helps fill the void Texas left.

6) Memphis - Solid football, great basketball, improving academics, and a good media market.

I don't think Boise, CSU, USF, Tulane, or any other schools really have a shot. I could also see the Big 12 taking UCF over BYU. That one is really close. Personally, I would pick UCF over BYU if it was up to me. I just don't think BYU can continue to be competitive with how strict their codes are, especially in a new NIL era.
07-22-2021 03:04 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #103
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
There isn't a sadder story in the realignment annals than WVU. I mean, the Big 12 bid was a win initially, until UL got the ACC bid. Wow, feel sorry for that state, coming from a Rutgers fan. Haha.

Not all is lost. Big 12 will survive and WVU will have a better chance to compete without OU in there.
07-22-2021 03:05 PM
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Maize Offline
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Post: #104
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
BIG EAST 2010 circa...seen this movie before....07-coffee3
07-22-2021 03:05 PM
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UCbball21 Offline
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Post: #105
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 03:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  There isn't a sadder story in the realignment annals than WVU. I mean, the Big 12 bid was a win initially, until UL got the ACC bid. Wow, feel sorry for that state, coming from a Rutgers fan. Haha.

Not all is lost. Big 12 will survive and WVU will have a better chance to compete without OU in there.

I think UConn is the saddest story, they went from a BCS berth in the Big East to completely irrelevant FB independence now that they are back in the Catholic Big East. In another decade or so I could see them giving up on football entirely.

Cincinnati and USF are both worst than WVU as well.
07-22-2021 03:08 PM
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1845 Bear Offline
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Post: #106
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 03:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  There isn't a sadder story in the realignment annals than WVU. I mean, the Big 12 bid was a win initially, until UL got the ACC bid. Wow, feel sorry for that state, coming from a Rutgers fan. Haha.

Not all is lost. Big 12 will survive and WVU will have a better chance to compete without OU in there.

Rice would have an argument...

From a Power league of 9 schools
To left behind by Arkansas
To left behind by UT, A&M, BU, TTU
To left behind by the original MWC schools
To left behind by TCU
To left behind by UH and SMU along with 5 now AAC teams outside of TX
Rice is your answer
07-22-2021 03:08 PM
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UCbball21 Offline
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Post: #107
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 03:08 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  
(07-22-2021 03:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  There isn't a sadder story in the realignment annals than WVU. I mean, the Big 12 bid was a win initially, until UL got the ACC bid. Wow, feel sorry for that state, coming from a Rutgers fan. Haha.

Not all is lost. Big 12 will survive and WVU will have a better chance to compete without OU in there.

Rice would have an argument...

From a Power league of 9 schools
To left behind by Arkansas
To left behind by UT, A&M, BU, TTU
To left behind by the original MWC schools
To left behind by TCU
To left behind by UH and SMU along with 5 now AAC teams outside of TX
Rice is your answer

Haha, yeah, that's pretty bad but I legitimately don't believe that Rice cares about athletics.
07-22-2021 03:09 PM
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schmolik Online
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Post: #108
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 03:08 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  
(07-22-2021 03:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  There isn't a sadder story in the realignment annals than WVU. I mean, the Big 12 bid was a win initially, until UL got the ACC bid. Wow, feel sorry for that state, coming from a Rutgers fan. Haha.

Not all is lost. Big 12 will survive and WVU will have a better chance to compete without OU in there.

I think UConn is the saddest story, they went from a BCS berth in the Big East to completely irrelevant FB independence now that they are back in the Catholic Big East. In another decade or so I could see them giving up on football entirely.

Cincinnati and USF are both worst than WVU as well.

But in men's basketball UConn is in fairly good shape back in the Big East.
07-22-2021 03:20 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #109
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 08:37 AM)usffan Wrote:  // said a bunch of stuff

USFFan

Hum, thanks. They did reverse course from when I last checked. They are comparable to their rivals. I should put them back on the list.

Here are the equity in athletics numbers for 2019-20. You can compare all the candidates to the little-8. It's not quite apples to apples, as some schools hide a lot of expenses (weight training, tutoring, et al) under "not allocated by sport" which deflates the number on football or basketball, while others don't. Maybe the total number is worth looking at first.

I go by expenses, as that is how much was spent, and revenues can be manipulated. I highlighted red the lowest for a key area, and green the highest. You can see how BYU is already at P5 spending level. The others you have to project an increase. They are actually all pretty close on total budget. I don't think it's decisive for any of them.

[Image: bc44c117ef29a30029448d838cf326f4842818fe.png]
07-22-2021 03:29 PM
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BcatMatt13 Offline
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Post: #110
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
For the time being (how long, who knows?) the Big 12 will add 2-4 teams. Top 4 options would likely be Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, and UCF (in no particular order).
07-22-2021 03:35 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #111
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 06:48 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If I were the Big 12, I would reach out to USC and see if there is still unrest in PAC land. I know Larry Scott is leaving but the PAC still is limited to MT/PT which just isn't TV friendly. If USC has any interest whatsoever in leaving the PAC I tell them to pick the 7 teams they want to be in a division with and build a Big 16.

Long shot but you gotta try.

If that doesn't work you have the usual suspects of BYU, AAC, and MWC schools to build from.

With 6 auto bids in a 12 team playoff the Big can still position themselves as the clear #5 team so that they still have that playoff certainty

If USC was going to leave the Pac 12, the Little 8 would be last of the P5's to get them.
07-22-2021 03:37 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #112
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 07:17 PM)Rube Dali Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 07:09 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  
(07-21-2021 07:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  You can bet Texas and Oklahoma aren’t the only Big 12 programs talking to other conferences. Kansas is probably already on the phone with The Big Ten.

Any school not in the SEC and Big Ten is making phone calls.

I don’t think Clemson and Florida State like Florida and South Carolina getting richer.

Are you sure about this? I can imaging Ohio State and Michigan are calling Birmingham at this moment.
03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao
07-22-2021 03:38 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #113
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
There is no hope for the PAC to break into the CT zone. Why bother? To play the behemoths of KSU and OSU in football? Just give it up already. It's a fine conference as it is. The ACC and PAC are very stable. The Big 12 just staved off the inevitable for a decade. Wow... all too familiar man.
07-22-2021 03:41 PM
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DFW HOYA Offline
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Post: #114
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 03:08 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  I think UConn is the saddest story, they went from a BCS berth in the Big East to completely irrelevant FB independence now that they are back in the Catholic Big East. In another decade or so I could see them giving up on football entirely.
Cincinnati and USF are both worst than WVU as well.

Catholic Big East? Butler may disagree on that.

The Big East has only four football schools (1 FBS, 3 FCS) so it's not going to sponsor it. That doesn't mean UConn can't compete somewhere, however.


But if the Big 12 wants to swing for the fences, and given the indigestion in Pac-12 circles...go all-in on:

Arizona
Arizona St.
Colorado
and pick someone else from another conference TBA
(This post was last modified: 07-22-2021 03:44 PM by DFW HOYA.)
07-22-2021 03:42 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #115
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 03:20 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(07-22-2021 03:08 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  
(07-22-2021 03:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  There isn't a sadder story in the realignment annals than WVU. I mean, the Big 12 bid was a win initially, until UL got the ACC bid. Wow, feel sorry for that state, coming from a Rutgers fan. Haha.

Not all is lost. Big 12 will survive and WVU will have a better chance to compete without OU in there.

I think UConn is the saddest story, they went from a BCS berth in the Big East to completely irrelevant FB independence now that they are back in the Catholic Big East. In another decade or so I could see them giving up on football entirely.

Cincinnati and USF are both worst than WVU as well.

But in men's basketball UConn is in fairly good shape back in the Big East.

Yea, UConn's more or less where they started. They gambled on football money and it didn't work out, but they cut their losses before it got any worse and now they've got (most of) their old rivals and MSG back. It wound up being a soft landing.
07-22-2021 03:43 PM
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UCbball21 Offline
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Post: #116
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 03:42 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  
(07-22-2021 03:08 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  I think UConn is the saddest story, they went from a BCS berth in the Big East to completely irrelevant FB independence now that they are back in the Catholic Big East. In another decade or so I could see them giving up on football entirely.
Cincinnati and USF are both worst than WVU as well.

Catholic Big East? Butler may disagree on that.

The Big East has only four football schools (1 FBS, 3 FCS) so it's not going to sponsor it. That doesn't mean UConn can't compete somewhere, however.


But if the Big 12 wants to swing for the fences, and given the indigestion in Pac-12 circles...go all-in on:

Arizona
Arizona St.
Colorado
and pick someone else from another conference TBA

As dysfunctional as the PAC-12 is...Arizona, ASU, and Colorado would never go back to the Big 12 even if Texas and Oklahoma were still there. They certainly wouldn't if Texas and Oklahoma leave.
07-22-2021 03:47 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #117
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-21-2021 09:43 PM)goofus Wrote:  If the plan is still to expand the CFP to 12 teams with the top 6 conference champions, then the Big 12 will still have plenty of incentive to stick around.

The concept of the P5 will be gone but that does not mean it will now be a P4. Instead there will be a clear pecking order now established in conference revenue

1. SEC (with Tex and Ok)
2. Big Ten
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12 (with Hou, Cincy, Memphis, USF, UCF, BYU)
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

So the Big Ten, ACC or PAC won't expand unless it adds value to their conference. Otherwise they will stand pat to hold their place in line. They will still get at least 1 team in the playoffs almost every year.

The only thing the Big Ten and ACC could do to keep up with the SEC is for the best teams to leave the Big Ten and ACC and form a new super conference. Maybe starting with PSU, Mich, OSU, Wisc, Clem, FSU, ND and adding 5 more. Of course I can't see those Big Ten schools doing that to their conference mates, so I think the Big Ten and ACC are stuck.

With that lineup, the MWC >> AAC.

Especially when Wichita State bolts for the MWC
07-22-2021 03:48 PM
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UCbball21 Offline
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Post: #118
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 03:43 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(07-22-2021 03:20 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(07-22-2021 03:08 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  
(07-22-2021 03:05 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  There isn't a sadder story in the realignment annals than WVU. I mean, the Big 12 bid was a win initially, until UL got the ACC bid. Wow, feel sorry for that state, coming from a Rutgers fan. Haha.

Not all is lost. Big 12 will survive and WVU will have a better chance to compete without OU in there.

I think UConn is the saddest story, they went from a BCS berth in the Big East to completely irrelevant FB independence now that they are back in the Catholic Big East. In another decade or so I could see them giving up on football entirely.

Cincinnati and USF are both worst than WVU as well.

But in men's basketball UConn is in fairly good shape back in the Big East.

Yea, UConn's more or less where they started. They gambled on football money and it didn't work out, but they cut their losses before it got any worse and now they've got (most of) their old rivals and MSG back. It wound up being a soft landing.

Sure, if you only care about basketball then UConn is happy. FB drives the bus though and UConn drove theirs off a cliff.
07-22-2021 03:48 PM
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DFW HOYA Offline
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Post: #119
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 03:00 PM)ManleyPointer Wrote:  This got me thinking, is WVU to the Big East even a remote possibility? Independence isn't easy but they're in a fantastic geographic position for it.

Yes, there's a 12th seat at the table, but their last exit wasn't graceful.
07-22-2021 03:51 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #120
RE: What will happen to the Big 12?
(07-22-2021 03:42 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  
(07-22-2021 03:08 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  I think UConn is the saddest story, they went from a BCS berth in the Big East to completely irrelevant FB independence now that they are back in the Catholic Big East. In another decade or so I could see them giving up on football entirely.
Cincinnati and USF are both worst than WVU as well.

Catholic Big East? Butler may disagree on that.

The Big East has only four football schools (1 FBS, 3 FCS) so it's not going to sponsor it. That doesn't mean UConn can't compete somewhere, however.


But if the Big 12 wants to swing for the fences, and given the indigestion in Pac-12 circles...go all-in on:

Arizona
Arizona St.
Colorado
and pick someone else from another conference TBA

Zero chance of that.

Why would those schools leave the Pac 12 for the Little 8?



Hint - they wouldn't
07-22-2021 03:57 PM
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