The unofficial online home for fans of the Old Dominion University Monarchs. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

(08-07-2020 09:39 AM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-06-2020 07:50 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(08-06-2020 07:34 PM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-06-2020 11:47 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(08-06-2020 11:26 AM)Grommet Wrote:  With all the posters here trained and accredited in viral epidemiology, pediatrics, and school administration (etc etc ad naseum) I'd frankly be shocked if we didn't have at least one appellate court judge here.

Oh, and by the way Coach. It’s mturn. I didn’t go through 8 years of m school to be called Turn.

017 is fine too. Kinda like James Bond

(08-07-2020 02:29 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Wow that is all kinds of terrible. Herd immunity is more likely in the range of 20% not 60% and death rate is between .4% and .6%. So they inflated the fatality rate 3X and and inflated the number infected before herd immunity by 3X. Where the hell are the Twitter COVID police? Based on the correct numbers (or at least more agreed upon numbers) the total number moves from her 2.95 Million to 328K

I haven't looked in quite some time but I agree the death rate seems high from what I remember. Still, I'd like to see your source for covid herd immunity at 20%. 70 is what I remember, and JHU and Mayo both say 60+.

(08-07-2020 04:03 PM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 02:29 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Wow that is all kinds of terrible. Herd immunity is more likely in the range of 20% not 60% and death rate is between .4% and .6%. So they inflated the fatality rate 3X and and inflated the number infected before herd immunity by 3X. Where the hell are the Twitter COVID police? Based on the correct numbers (or at least more agreed upon numbers) the total number moves from her 2.95 Million to 328K

I haven't looked in quite some time but I agree the death rate seems high from what I remember. Still, I'd like to see your source for covid herd immunity at 20%. 70 is what I remember, and JHU and Mayo both say 60+.

Lots of new info coming out of T-cell studies which have found as many as 50% already have T-cells. When you take that 50% off the table you only need another 20% or so to reach herd. I will see if I can find sources when I get some time to dig.

Additionally, anecdotal evidence from trends in NY, NJ, Italy, and Sweden seem to indicate those places may have reached herd immunity when considering massive early infection rates that now have become nearly non existent.

Edit: Added link
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.abd3871

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

I now know 2 families that have had it. So far the kids barely showed any symptoms. Mild cold at worse. The dad only went in because his wife works as a nurse in covid unit and he did spike a fever. He described it as a mild flu or slightly above avg cold without any of the sinus or stuffy nose stuff.. also had weirdly warm skin. The worst part was just being gassed and tired by 1pm or so. A neighbor had it and only symptoms he had was loss of taste. Otherwise he said it just felt like normal allergies. His wife was positive and had no idea and never had a symptom. Neither of their kids under 3 showed any signs and haven't still.

Hell, I have my regularly scheduled late summer allergies making me feel all blah and I wonder if I don't have it too at this point. Either way just keeping myself away from folks as much as possible for the next week or so.

(08-07-2020 11:33 PM)bit_9 Wrote:  I now know 2 families that have had it. So far the kids barely showed any symptoms. Mild cold at worse. The dad only went in because his wife works as a nurse in covid unit and he did spike a fever. He described it as a mild flu or slightly above avg cold without any of the sinus or stuffy nose stuff.. also had weirdly warm skin. The worst part was just being gassed and tired by 1pm or so. A neighbor had it and only symptoms he had was loss of taste. Otherwise he said it just felt like normal allergies. His wife was positive and had no idea and never had a symptom. Neither of their kids under 3 showed any signs and haven't still.

Hell, I have my regularly scheduled late summer allergies making me feel all blah and I wonder if I don't have it too at this point. Either way just keeping myself away from folks as much as possible for the next week or so.

Just found an outdated wildberry pop tart in the back of the snacks cabinet, presumably left over from when our son was in town for a visit earlier this summer. It was delicious.

I guess I’m still fine.

(08-07-2020 11:33 PM)bit_9 Wrote:  I now know 2 families that have had it. So far the kids barely showed any symptoms. Mild cold at worse. The dad only went in because his wife works as a nurse in covid unit and he did spike a fever. He described it as a mild flu or slightly above avg cold without any of the sinus or stuffy nose stuff.. also had weirdly warm skin. The worst part was just being gassed and tired by 1pm or so. A neighbor had it and only symptoms he had was loss of taste. Otherwise he said it just felt like normal allergies. His wife was positive and had no idea and never had a symptom. Neither of their kids under 3 showed any signs and haven't still.

Hell, I have my regularly scheduled late summer allergies making me feel all blah and I wonder if I don't have it too at this point. Either way just keeping myself away from folks as much as possible for the next week or so.

I still don't know anyone first hand that's had it. Thought our neighbor had it. He is NNPD and had all the symptoms... fever, headaches, loss of taste and smell... but he tested negative and recovered before the results. Still suspicious of the results, but he is married with two kids that are outside playing all the time... it has been a week since he recovered and nobody else is sick.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

(08-07-2020 07:08 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 04:03 PM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 02:29 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Wow that is all kinds of terrible. Herd immunity is more likely in the range of 20% not 60% and death rate is between .4% and .6%. So they inflated the fatality rate 3X and and inflated the number infected before herd immunity by 3X. Where the hell are the Twitter COVID police? Based on the correct numbers (or at least more agreed upon numbers) the total number moves from her 2.95 Million to 328K

I haven't looked in quite some time but I agree the death rate seems high from what I remember. Still, I'd like to see your source for covid herd immunity at 20%. 70 is what I remember, and JHU and Mayo both say 60+.

Lots of new info coming out of T-cell studies which have found as many as 50% already have T-cells. When you take that 50% off the table you only need another 20% or so to reach herd. I will see if I can find sources when I get some time to dig.

Additionally, anecdotal evidence from trends in NY, NJ, Italy, and Sweden seem to indicate those places may have reached herd immunity when considering massive early infection rates that now have become nearly non existent.

Edit: Added link
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.abd3871

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle. And she's right, for the most part...but I'm a glutton for punishment.

RE:link, interesting and potentially promising but even the authors admit it's mostly speculation at this point, and unilaterally declaring herd immunity 20% based on speculation is probably not wise.

RE:mortality based on CDC, JHU, and Worldometer, call it 3.25% in the US ( I think it ranged from 3.22 to 3.28). I was flat out wrong there. Again, if you have a link showing .4-.6% I'd enjoy seeing it.

(08-08-2020 07:44 AM)Grommet Wrote:  I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle.

Don't be so sure. I just saw a headline that Sen. Shumer has come out strongly yesterday in favor of reopening schools in the fall. (I guess the teachers' union check must have bounced.)

(08-08-2020 07:44 AM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 07:08 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 04:03 PM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 02:29 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Wow that is all kinds of terrible. Herd immunity is more likely in the range of 20% not 60% and death rate is between .4% and .6%. So they inflated the fatality rate 3X and and inflated the number infected before herd immunity by 3X. Where the hell are the Twitter COVID police? Based on the correct numbers (or at least more agreed upon numbers) the total number moves from her 2.95 Million to 328K

I haven't looked in quite some time but I agree the death rate seems high from what I remember. Still, I'd like to see your source for covid herd immunity at 20%. 70 is what I remember, and JHU and Mayo both say 60+.

Lots of new info coming out of T-cell studies which have found as many as 50% already have T-cells. When you take that 50% off the table you only need another 20% or so to reach herd. I will see if I can find sources when I get some time to dig.

Additionally, anecdotal evidence from trends in NY, NJ, Italy, and Sweden seem to indicate those places may have reached herd immunity when considering massive early infection rates that now have become nearly non existent.

Edit: Added link
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.abd3871

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle. And she's right, for the most part...but I'm a glutton for punishment.

RE:link, interesting and potentially promising but even the authors admit it's mostly speculation at this point, and unilaterally declaring herd immunity 20% based on speculation is probably not wise.

RE:mortality based on CDC, JHU, and Worldometer, call it 3.25% in the US ( I think it ranged from 3.22 to 3.28). I was flat out wrong there. Again, if you have a link showing .4-.6% I'd enjoy seeing it.

It is my understanding the immunity is short lived. You lose the antibodies and can get it again. Not sure if that is known. I guess we'll find out. NYC should be getting a 2nd wave soon if you lose immunity.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

(08-08-2020 07:44 AM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 07:08 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 04:03 PM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 02:29 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Wow that is all kinds of terrible. Herd immunity is more likely in the range of 20% not 60% and death rate is between .4% and .6%. So they inflated the fatality rate 3X and and inflated the number infected before herd immunity by 3X. Where the hell are the Twitter COVID police? Based on the correct numbers (or at least more agreed upon numbers) the total number moves from her 2.95 Million to 328K

I haven't looked in quite some time but I agree the death rate seems high from what I remember. Still, I'd like to see your source for covid herd immunity at 20%. 70 is what I remember, and JHU and Mayo both say 60+.

Lots of new info coming out of T-cell studies which have found as many as 50% already have T-cells. When you take that 50% off the table you only need another 20% or so to reach herd. I will see if I can find sources when I get some time to dig.

Additionally, anecdotal evidence from trends in NY, NJ, Italy, and Sweden seem to indicate those places may have reached herd immunity when considering massive early infection rates that now have become nearly non existent.

Edit: Added link
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.abd3871

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle. And she's right, for the most part...but I'm a glutton for punishment.

RE:link, interesting and potentially promising but even the authors admit it's mostly speculation at this point, and unilaterally declaring herd immunity 20% based on speculation is probably not wise.

RE:mortality based on CDC, JHU, and Worldometer, call it 3.25% in the US ( I think it ranged from 3.22 to 3.28). I was flat out wrong there. Again, if you have a link showing .4-.6% I'd enjoy seeing it.

I think your number must be based on positive tests, which ignores all of the cases that are never confirmed.

https://nypost.com/2020/06/25/getting-re...eath-rate/

I am sure you can find the data on the actual CDC site if you dig around, because I have seen it there before, but I couldn't find it in my quick search this morning.

Also, I said it "is more likely in the range of 20% not 60%", which is far from an absolute statement. Not sure how it was "unilateral" either considering that I cited the actual study.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

(08-08-2020 07:54 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:44 AM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 07:08 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 04:03 PM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 02:29 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Wow that is all kinds of terrible. Herd immunity is more likely in the range of 20% not 60% and death rate is between .4% and .6%. So they inflated the fatality rate 3X and and inflated the number infected before herd immunity by 3X. Where the hell are the Twitter COVID police? Based on the correct numbers (or at least more agreed upon numbers) the total number moves from her 2.95 Million to 328K

I haven't looked in quite some time but I agree the death rate seems high from what I remember. Still, I'd like to see your source for covid herd immunity at 20%. 70 is what I remember, and JHU and Mayo both say 60+.

Lots of new info coming out of T-cell studies which have found as many as 50% already have T-cells. When you take that 50% off the table you only need another 20% or so to reach herd. I will see if I can find sources when I get some time to dig.

Additionally, anecdotal evidence from trends in NY, NJ, Italy, and Sweden seem to indicate those places may have reached herd immunity when considering massive early infection rates that now have become nearly non existent.

Edit: Added link
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.abd3871

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle. And she's right, for the most part...but I'm a glutton for punishment.

RE:link, interesting and potentially promising but even the authors admit it's mostly speculation at this point, and unilaterally declaring herd immunity 20% based on speculation is probably not wise.

RE:mortality based on CDC, JHU, and Worldometer, call it 3.25% in the US ( I think it ranged from 3.22 to 3.28). I was flat out wrong there. Again, if you have a link showing .4-.6% I'd enjoy seeing it.

It is my understanding the immunity is short lived. You lose the antibodies and can get it again. Not sure if that is known. I guess we'll find out. NYC should be getting a 2nd wave soon if you lose immunity.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I don't think this is accurate. There have been some cases that have raised eyebrows, but most studies believe that immunity is maintained.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

(08-08-2020 08:12 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:54 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:44 AM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 07:08 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 04:03 PM)Grommet Wrote:  I haven't looked in quite some time but I agree the death rate seems high from what I remember. Still, I'd like to see your source for covid herd immunity at 20%. 70 is what I remember, and JHU and Mayo both say 60+.

Lots of new info coming out of T-cell studies which have found as many as 50% already have T-cells. When you take that 50% off the table you only need another 20% or so to reach herd. I will see if I can find sources when I get some time to dig.

Additionally, anecdotal evidence from trends in NY, NJ, Italy, and Sweden seem to indicate those places may have reached herd immunity when considering massive early infection rates that now have become nearly non existent.

Edit: Added link
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.abd3871

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle. And she's right, for the most part...but I'm a glutton for punishment.

RE:link, interesting and potentially promising but even the authors admit it's mostly speculation at this point, and unilaterally declaring herd immunity 20% based on speculation is probably not wise.

RE:mortality based on CDC, JHU, and Worldometer, call it 3.25% in the US ( I think it ranged from 3.22 to 3.28). I was flat out wrong there. Again, if you have a link showing .4-.6% I'd enjoy seeing it.

It is my understanding the immunity is short lived. You lose the antibodies and can get it again. Not sure if that is known. I guess we'll find out. NYC should be getting a 2nd wave soon if you lose immunity.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I don't think this is accurate. There have been some cases that have raised eyebrows, but most studies believe that immunity is maintained.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

The antibodies are mostly gone after a few months. If a vaccine is developed it’ll likely be taken at least annually.

(08-08-2020 09:39 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 08:12 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:54 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:44 AM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 07:08 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Lots of new info coming out of T-cell studies which have found as many as 50% already have T-cells. When you take that 50% off the table you only need another 20% or so to reach herd. I will see if I can find sources when I get some time to dig.

Additionally, anecdotal evidence from trends in NY, NJ, Italy, and Sweden seem to indicate those places may have reached herd immunity when considering massive early infection rates that now have become nearly non existent.

Edit: Added link
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.abd3871

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle. And she's right, for the most part...but I'm a glutton for punishment.

RE:link, interesting and potentially promising but even the authors admit it's mostly speculation at this point, and unilaterally declaring herd immunity 20% based on speculation is probably not wise.

RE:mortality based on CDC, JHU, and Worldometer, call it 3.25% in the US ( I think it ranged from 3.22 to 3.28). I was flat out wrong there. Again, if you have a link showing .4-.6% I'd enjoy seeing it.

It is my understanding the immunity is short lived. You lose the antibodies and can get it again. Not sure if that is known. I guess we'll find out. NYC should be getting a 2nd wave soon if you lose immunity.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I don't think this is accurate. There have been some cases that have raised eyebrows, but most studies believe that immunity is maintained.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

The antibodies are mostly gone after a few months. If a vaccine is developed it’ll likely be taken at least annually.

And anally.

(08-08-2020 09:39 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 08:12 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:54 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:44 AM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 07:08 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Lots of new info coming out of T-cell studies which have found as many as 50% already have T-cells. When you take that 50% off the table you only need another 20% or so to reach herd. I will see if I can find sources when I get some time to dig.

Additionally, anecdotal evidence from trends in NY, NJ, Italy, and Sweden seem to indicate those places may have reached herd immunity when considering massive early infection rates that now have become nearly non existent.

Edit: Added link
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.abd3871

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle. And she's right, for the most part...but I'm a glutton for punishment.

RE:link, interesting and potentially promising but even the authors admit it's mostly speculation at this point, and unilaterally declaring herd immunity 20% based on speculation is probably not wise.

RE:mortality based on CDC, JHU, and Worldometer, call it 3.25% in the US ( I think it ranged from 3.22 to 3.28). I was flat out wrong there. Again, if you have a link showing .4-.6% I'd enjoy seeing it.

It is my understanding the immunity is short lived. You lose the antibodies and can get it again. Not sure if that is known. I guess we'll find out. NYC should be getting a 2nd wave soon if you lose immunity.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I don't think this is accurate. There have been some cases that have raised eyebrows, but most studies believe that immunity is maintained.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

The antibodies are mostly gone after a few months. If a vaccine is developed it’ll likely be taken at least annually.

Antibodies, yes, but T cells seem to be persistent.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

(08-08-2020 09:52 AM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 09:39 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 08:12 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:54 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:44 AM)Grommet Wrote:  I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle. And she's right, for the most part...but I'm a glutton for punishment.

RE:link, interesting and potentially promising but even the authors admit it's mostly speculation at this point, and unilaterally declaring herd immunity 20% based on speculation is probably not wise.

RE:mortality based on CDC, JHU, and Worldometer, call it 3.25% in the US ( I think it ranged from 3.22 to 3.28). I was flat out wrong there. Again, if you have a link showing .4-.6% I'd enjoy seeing it.

It is my understanding the immunity is short lived. You lose the antibodies and can get it again. Not sure if that is known. I guess we'll find out. NYC should be getting a 2nd wave soon if you lose immunity.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I don't think this is accurate. There have been some cases that have raised eyebrows, but most studies believe that immunity is maintained.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

The antibodies are mostly gone after a few months. If a vaccine is developed it’ll likely be taken at least annually.

And anally.

At least the VCU Rams have something to look forward to.

They've been setting up free testing sites in a bunch of neighborhoods lately (there is one in Level Green in VB today). I'll be curious to see what effect it has on the case number and positivity rate.

Has anyone on here voluntarily been tested? There is zero chance I'd sign up for one of these tests.

(08-08-2020 07:54 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:44 AM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 07:08 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 04:03 PM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 02:29 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  Wow that is all kinds of terrible. Herd immunity is more likely in the range of 20% not 60% and death rate is between .4% and .6%. So they inflated the fatality rate 3X and and inflated the number infected before herd immunity by 3X. Where the hell are the Twitter COVID police? Based on the correct numbers (or at least more agreed upon numbers) the total number moves from her 2.95 Million to 328K

I haven't looked in quite some time but I agree the death rate seems high from what I remember. Still, I'd like to see your source for covid herd immunity at 20%. 70 is what I remember, and JHU and Mayo both say 60+.

Lots of new info coming out of T-cell studies which have found as many as 50% already have T-cells. When you take that 50% off the table you only need another 20% or so to reach herd. I will see if I can find sources when I get some time to dig.

Additionally, anecdotal evidence from trends in NY, NJ, Italy, and Sweden seem to indicate those places may have reached herd immunity when considering massive early infection rates that now have become nearly non existent.

Edit: Added link
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.abd3871

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle. And she's right, for the most part...but I'm a glutton for punishment.

RE:link, interesting and potentially promising but even the authors admit it's mostly speculation at this point, and unilaterally declaring herd immunity 20% based on speculation is probably not wise.

RE:mortality based on CDC, JHU, and Worldometer, call it 3.25% in the US ( I think it ranged from 3.22 to 3.28). I was flat out wrong there. Again, if you have a link showing .4-.6% I'd enjoy seeing it.

It is my understanding the immunity is short lived. You lose the antibodies and can get it again. Not sure if that is known. I guess we'll find out. NYC should be getting a 2nd wave soon if you lose immunity.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

This is totally not scientific, but a coworker had the virus in March. They tested for antibodies a couple weeks ago and they do have the antibodies. It would interesting to see if they tested every 3 months or so, what the antibody rate would be at 6 and 9 months.

(08-08-2020 10:38 AM)ODUCoach Wrote:  They've been setting up free testing sites in a bunch of neighborhoods lately (there is one in Level Green in VB today). I'll be curious to see what effect it has on the case number and positivity rate.

Has anyone on here voluntarily been tested? There is zero chance I'd sign up for one of these tests.

I don't think I would get tested unless I had symptoms or someone I had been around tested positive.

(08-08-2020 08:12 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:54 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(08-08-2020 07:44 AM)Grommet Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 07:08 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(08-07-2020 04:03 PM)Grommet Wrote:  I haven't looked in quite some time but I agree the death rate seems high from what I remember. Still, I'd like to see your source for covid herd immunity at 20%. 70 is what I remember, and JHU and Mayo both say 60+.

Lots of new info coming out of T-cell studies which have found as many as 50% already have T-cells. When you take that 50% off the table you only need another 20% or so to reach herd. I will see if I can find sources when I get some time to dig.

Additionally, anecdotal evidence from trends in NY, NJ, Italy, and Sweden seem to indicate those places may have reached herd immunity when considering massive early infection rates that now have become nearly non existent.

Edit: Added link
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.abd3871

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

I had a whole thing typed out last night, but I ended up not posting after my wife told me I was nuts for jumping back in since the battle lines were drawn and no one is changing sides or even willing to meet in the middle. And she's right, for the most part...but I'm a glutton for punishment.

RE:link, interesting and potentially promising but even the authors admit it's mostly speculation at this point, and unilaterally declaring herd immunity 20% based on speculation is probably not wise.

RE:mortality based on CDC, JHU, and Worldometer, call it 3.25% in the US ( I think it ranged from 3.22 to 3.28). I was flat out wrong there. Again, if you have a link showing .4-.6% I'd enjoy seeing it.

It is my understanding the immunity is short lived. You lose the antibodies and can get it again. Not sure if that is known. I guess we'll find out. NYC should be getting a 2nd wave soon if you lose immunity.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I don't think this is accurate. There have been some cases that have raised eyebrows, but most studies believe that immunity is maintained.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

FWIW a guy my wife works with caught Rona twice. Or at least got sick twice and tested positive twice.

I’ve read that bloody Mary’s are effective in preventing infection. Not sure on the validity but I’m going to give it a try. I’ll report back.