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Think about it, if u need help Ike will break it down for U
Yes the market is like Vegas, listen to Ike, be careful with your money, we don't need any BROKE TIGERS

(07-23-2020 11:45 AM)tkgrrett Wrote:  Even with all indicators pointing red

There's your problem. All indicators are NOT red.
Retail rebounding quickly - headline, ex-auto, and core.
Manufacturing sentiment up - both Empire State survey and Philly Fed index.
Housing data up to 1,220k permits.
Personal savings rate historically high at 19.7%.
Q2 & Q3 forecast GDP is up.

If you're in Tech, it's easy to get caught-up in thinking that is all there is to the economy. It's not.

(07-23-2020 11:57 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 08:05 AM)tkgrrett Wrote:  Im going to just keep posting this over and over again until someone gets it. Even if you dont believe Covid is being properly identified, total expected deaths in the US are up by 140K vs the upper bound of expectatlons for this year. Something is causing these deaths unless you believe counties across the country have coordinated to file death certificates for fictional people

Source:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid...deaths.htm

Here's the problem with that. Due to lagging stats, that is only a prediction. And we've all seen how good the CDC is at predicting deaths during this thing (250k, down to 60k, back up to 180k, etc.).

If you look at the actual data, there are some unusual things in play. First off, total deaths in Jan-Feb 2020 were already trending higher than the prior 5-year average by 1,000 per week - before we logged any COVID deaths. Why? Was it already shaping up to be a bad flu season?

Second, total of all category deaths peaked the week of April 5 and have come down every week since then. Yet in the 13 weeks since that peak, WHO has reported COVID deaths EXCEEDING the weekly increase in all deaths for 8 of those weeks.

I will certainly be watching this data as the year closes - but it's way too early to claim CDC projections have it all figured out.

1) Models used correctly dont project a number.. they project a range. The death numbers didnt exceed the 95% confidence interval of that range until mid-March.

2) This isnt a new model because of Covid, this has existed for years No one is claiming the CDC is predicting the future.

3) I dont follow your WHO point, Im saying it doesnt matter if covid deaths are labeled correctly. We know there are significant number of "excess" deaths. Some may just be random but no way 140K halfway through the year is random variation. That would be about 10% above expectations (outside of 95% confidence)

(07-23-2020 12:12 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 11:57 AM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 08:05 AM)tkgrrett Wrote:  Im going to just keep posting this over and over again until someone gets it. Even if you dont believe Covid is being properly identified, total expected deaths in the US are up by 140K vs the upper bound of expectatlons for this year. Something is causing these deaths unless you believe counties across the country have coordinated to file death certificates for fictional people

Source:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid...deaths.htm

Here's the problem with that. Due to lagging stats, that is only a prediction. And we've all seen how good the CDC is at predicting deaths during this thing (250k, down to 60k, back up to 180k, etc.).

If you look at the actual data, there are some unusual things in play. First off, total deaths in Jan-Feb 2020 were already trending higher than the prior 5-year average by 1,000 per week - before we logged any COVID deaths. Why? Was it already shaping up to be a bad flu season?

Second, total of all category deaths peaked the week of April 5 and have come down every week since then. Yet in the 13 weeks since that peak, WHO has reported COVID deaths EXCEEDING the weekly increase in all deaths for 8 of those weeks.

I will certainly be watching this data as the year closes - but it's way too early to claim CDC projections have it all figured out.

1) Models used correctly dont project a number.. they project a range. The death numbers didnt exceed the 95% confidence interval of that range until mid-March.

2) This isnt a new model because of Covid, this has existed for years No one is claiming the CDC is predicting the future.

3) I dont follow your WHO point, Im saying it doesnt matter if covid deaths are labeled correctly. We know there are significant number of "excess" deaths. Some may just be random but no way 140K halfway through the year is random variation. That would be about 10% above expectations (outside of 95% confidence)

The WHO point is that they are reporting COVID deaths that are higher than the weekly death rate growth this year vs prior 5 years. Even while this year was already tracking more than 1k deaths per week higher than average. For example: The last week of May, total deaths were 56,700. The prior 5-year average for that week was 50,300. So you would claim COVID accounts for the 6,400 increase. (That doesn't even take into account the prior trend of 1k more deaths per week in 2020 - or else the expected COVID number would be 5,400.) COVID deaths reported that week were 7,500. That is a 1,100-2,100 "exaggeration" from expected for that week alone.

And no one is claiming that the 140k should be zero. But there are indicators that it should be lower.

(07-23-2020 12:08 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 11:45 AM)tkgrrett Wrote:  Even with all indicators pointing red

There's your problem. All indicators are NOT red.
Retail rebounding quickly - headline, ex-auto, and core.
Manufacturing sentiment up - both Empire State survey and Philly Fed index.
Housing data up to 1,220k permits.
Personal savings rate historically high at 19.7%.
Q2 & Q3 forecast GDP is up.

If you're in Tech, it's easy to get caught-up in thinking that is all there is to the economy. It's not.

You are thinking up versus the bottom.. im saying up versus comparable valuations (i.e. is 27K Dow today the same as 27K last year).

YoY housing starts are down, Q3/Q4 GDP forecast is way down versus last year and personal savings rate being historically high is bad as it indicates low consumer confidence.

Essentially, equities (especially risk adjusted) have become tremendously more expensive as both GDP and earnings expectations has fallen off a cliff. Using DJI as an example, forward P/E is up 25% YoY (from 19 to 23) - essentially every dollar of earnings is now 25% more expensive and thats despite the higher risk

(07-23-2020 12:24 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 12:08 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 11:45 AM)tkgrrett Wrote:  Even with all indicators pointing red

There's your problem. All indicators are NOT red.
Retail rebounding quickly - headline, ex-auto, and core.
Manufacturing sentiment up - both Empire State survey and Philly Fed index.
Housing data up to 1,220k permits.
Personal savings rate historically high at 19.7%.
Q2 & Q3 forecast GDP is up.

If you're in Tech, it's easy to get caught-up in thinking that is all there is to the economy. It's not.

You are thinking up versus the bottom.. im saying up versus comparable valuations (i.e. is 27K Dow today the same as 27K last year).

YoY housing starts are down, Q3/Q4 GDP forecast is way down versus last year and personal savings rate being historically high is bad as it indicates low consumer confidence.

Essentially, equities (especially risk adjusted) have become tremendously more expensive as both GDP and earnings expectations has fallen off a cliff. Using DJI as an example, forward P/E is up 25% YoY (from 19 to 23) - essentially every dollar of earnings is now 25% more expensive and thats despite the higher risk

And there was a sell-off that adjusted to the bottom. So "up" is the right way to look at it. As I proved, all indicators are not red. I'm done with the back and forth.

(07-22-2020 06:42 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  No doubt it is real and people are dying from it.. But no doubt also it has been monetized and politicized and people have good reasons why they would want someone to be covid positive. If you are the financial officer at a hospital, you want as many patients as possible to be considered covid positive because you get MONEY for it. So the truth is, we really have NO IDEA how many people have actually contracted it, much less how many people have actually died because of covid.

As far as hospitals go... sounds like they are returning to normal.

Anyone who has ever gone to the emergency room in their lifetimes expect a long, long wait. Why? Because the beds are always full. That stopped in almost city in every state during this covid stuff. Most hospitals all over the country had turned into ghost towns. Sure places like NY had problems, but that was a very isolated area that became such a problem. If you had gone to the emergency room in Memphis in the past 4 months you would have walked into empty hallways, empty waiting rooms, empty beds. Now that they are doing other things other than just covid, the hospitals are going back to how they were last year.

The latest fear-mongering is the "increase of general hospital (and specifically ER) usage". They compare it to during the middle of the lockdown - not prior year. They leave out what you just mentioned about the backlog of elective procedures now returning. They also leave out the typical summer surge of accidents in ER's.

If true independent reporting still existed, someone would do analysis showing total hospital usage for March-June this year compared to prior years. But that would take work, and more importantly, remove bias.

(07-23-2020 01:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 12:24 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 12:08 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 11:45 AM)tkgrrett Wrote:  Even with all indicators pointing red

There's your problem. All indicators are NOT red.
Retail rebounding quickly - headline, ex-auto, and core.
Manufacturing sentiment up - both Empire State survey and Philly Fed index.
Housing data up to 1,220k permits.
Personal savings rate historically high at 19.7%.
Q2 & Q3 forecast GDP is up.

If you're in Tech, it's easy to get caught-up in thinking that is all there is to the economy. It's not.

You are thinking up versus the bottom.. im saying up versus comparable valuations (i.e. is 27K Dow today the same as 27K last year).

YoY housing starts are down, Q3/Q4 GDP forecast is way down versus last year and personal savings rate being historically high is bad as it indicates low consumer confidence.

Essentially, equities (especially risk adjusted) have become tremendously more expensive as both GDP and earnings expectations has fallen off a cliff. Using DJI as an example, forward P/E is up 25% YoY (from 19 to 23) - essentially every dollar of earnings is now 25% more expensive and thats despite the higher risk

And there was a sell-off that adjusted to the bottom. So "up" is the right way to look at it. As I proved, all indicators are not red. I'm done with the back and forth.

Lol... the only thing you proved is that 1) time horizons matter; and 2) you arent familiar with valuation methods (no shame in that)

(07-23-2020 02:08 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 01:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 12:24 PM)tkgrrett Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 12:08 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(07-23-2020 11:45 AM)tkgrrett Wrote:  Even with all indicators pointing red

There's your problem. All indicators are NOT red.
Retail rebounding quickly - headline, ex-auto, and core.
Manufacturing sentiment up - both Empire State survey and Philly Fed index.
Housing data up to 1,220k permits.
Personal savings rate historically high at 19.7%.
Q2 & Q3 forecast GDP is up.

If you're in Tech, it's easy to get caught-up in thinking that is all there is to the economy. It's not.

You are thinking up versus the bottom.. im saying up versus comparable valuations (i.e. is 27K Dow today the same as 27K last year).

YoY housing starts are down, Q3/Q4 GDP forecast is way down versus last year and personal savings rate being historically high is bad as it indicates low consumer confidence.

Essentially, equities (especially risk adjusted) have become tremendously more expensive as both GDP and earnings expectations has fallen off a cliff. Using DJI as an example, forward P/E is up 25% YoY (from 19 to 23) - essentially every dollar of earnings is now 25% more expensive and thats despite the higher risk

And there was a sell-off that adjusted to the bottom. So "up" is the right way to look at it. As I proved, all indicators are not red. I'm done with the back and forth.

Lol... the only thing you proved is that 1) time horizons matter; and 2) you arent familiar with valuation methods (no shame in that)

lol...If you only knew what I (successfully) do for a living.

Players hanging out without masks around downtown (Beale St) more than likely..