(03-01-2020 06:09 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote: So it sounds like Rat Pete is dropping out.
Doesn't make sense why not stay in through Super Tuesday? Maybe crazy uncle Joe has promised something?
Yeah, I kinda fail to see the point, and it doesn't help that much as there was a lot of early voting in the big states. Interestingly enough according to the Morning Consult polling, Bernie is the second choice of Pete voters at the highest percentage. I am still of the opinion that way too many people think voters view themselves in these "lanes" and will just pick another person in the perceived lane of their first choice.
without seeing the details behind it, I'd be wary of this poll.
Quote:Our latest results are based on 30,583 surveys with registered voters, including 13,428 surveys with Democratic primary voters, conducted Feb. 23-27, 2020. The interviews were conducted online, and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region.
Our Democratic primary results are reported using interviews with registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state. Those who say they don’t know or have no opinion are asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate. The responses among all Democratic primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point. The “Super Tuesday Voters” demographic consists of 4,435 voters in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia, and also has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.
The “Hypothetical General-Election Matchups” section displays responses among all registered voters — not just those who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary or caucus in their state — and those matchups also have a margin of error of plus or minus 1 point.
In the case of a tie, candidates are ordered alphabetically by last name.
they appear to be oversampling Dems in the overall result @ 43.9% of the population. I'm assuming the "super tuesday voters" of 4,435 subset is of the 13.4k Dem respondents, and that under-samples those states in relation to the relative population of the US by around 16-17%. (it's closer to 40% than 33%).
I really wish these polling outfits were more transparent with the numbers.
(03-01-2020 07:18 PM)Kronke Wrote: With pete dropping out, I imagine biden and bloomberg just picked up a few points each. Could flip a few states for biden and put bloomberg over 15% to become viable.
That other poll showed his followers split.
I don't think Biden or Bloomberg particularly appeal to his voters. But then they may not like Sanders.
In the polls that came out in the last couple of days, Pete had 9 TX, 10 NC, 7 CA, 14 MA, 18 UT, 8 VA, 12 CO, 8 FL, 13 WI.
Muh polls.
Which poll had biden winning South Carolina by 30?
Democratic voters are sheep, they are just riding the tide of the presumed frontrunner. Go tell a pete or soft bernie supporter that biden is now the frontrunner again after South Carolina, and watch them flip back to biden.
(03-01-2020 07:18 PM)Kronke Wrote: With pete dropping out, I imagine biden and bloomberg just picked up a few points each. Could flip a few states for biden and put bloomberg over 15% to become viable.
That other poll showed his followers split.
I don't think Biden or Bloomberg particularly appeal to his voters. But then they may not like Sanders.
In the polls that came out in the last couple of days, Pete had 9 TX, 10 NC, 7 CA, 14 MA, 18 UT, 8 VA, 12 CO, 8 FL, 13 WI.
Muh polls.
Which poll had biden winning South Carolina by 30?
Democratic voters are sheep, they are just riding the tide of the presumed frontrunner. Go tell a pete or soft bernie supporter that biden is now the frontrunner again after South Carolina, and watch them flip back to biden.
I think mayor Petey saw his support declining. That was clear.
Wow, that was eye opening for me. Dem primary voters aren't jumping to the next logical ideological candidate as one drops out, like you would think Pete voters would go to Biden.
They are jumping to the last guy who won or is polling well, b/c rather than ideology, they are looking for anybody whom they think can beat Trump.
LOL, that's some strong ideology there. It also explains why Bernie is picking up voters that previously voted for a more "moderate" candidate.
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2020 10:33 PM by TripleA.)
Saw something a while back. Republicans/conservatives vote on issues; democrats/leftists vote on personalities. So when Kamala Harris pulled out, the thinking was that her support would go to Bernie or Liz Warren, who share beliefs. Apparently, a surprisingly large part went instead to Klobuchar, who shares gender. The left hates Donald Trump, and they keep thinking that telling us over and over how terrible a person he is will cause republicans/conservatives to bolt. But republicans/conservatives vote on issues, and Trump is still way ahead of any democrat/lefitsts with them on issues.
There is simply no democrat candidate for president at this point whose issue positions allow me to consider voting for him/her. The left can keep telling me how awful a person Trump is, and maybe that will cause me not to vote for Trump. But it's not going to give me any reason to vote for any democrat.
(This post was last modified: 03-02-2020 02:36 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
(03-02-2020 02:35 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: Saw something a while back. Republicans/conservatives vote on issues; democrats/leftists vote on personalities. So when Kamala Harris pulled out, the thinking was that her support would go to Bernie or Liz Warren, who share beliefs. Apparently, a surprisingly large part went instead to Klobuchar, who shares gender. The left hates Donald Trump, and they keep thinking that telling us over and over how terrible a person he is will cause republicans/conservatives to bolt. But republicans/conservatives vote on issues, and Trump is still way ahead of any democrat/lefitsts with them on issues.
There is simply no democrat candidate for president at this point whose issue positions allow me to consider voting for him/her. The left can keep telling me how awful a person Trump is, and maybe that will cause me not to vote for Trump. But it's not going to give me any reason to vote for any democrat.
Wow, that was eye opening for me. Dem primary voters aren't jumping to the next logical ideological candidate as one drops out, like you would think Pete voters would go to Biden.
They are jumping to the last guy who won or is polling well, b/c rather than ideology, they are looking for anybody whom they think can beat Trump.
LOL, that's some strong ideology there. It also explains why Bernie is picking up voters that previously voted for a more "moderate" candidate.
That's pretty much all they talk about. Orange man bad. I'm better at beating Trump.
It reminds me of Romney in 2012. "I'm not Obama." We all know where that got him.
but fivethirtyeight has a cool simulation thing where you can click your guess at the winners and it figures delegates/percentage chances at the nom based on that.
(03-01-2020 07:18 PM)Kronke Wrote: With pete dropping out, I imagine biden and bloomberg just picked up a few points each. Could flip a few states for biden and put bloomberg over 15% to become viable.
That other poll showed his followers split.
I don't think Biden or Bloomberg particularly appeal to his voters. But then they may not like Sanders.
In the polls that came out in the last couple of days, Pete had 9 TX, 10 NC, 7 CA, 14 MA, 18 UT, 8 VA, 12 CO, 8 FL, 13 WI.
Muh polls.
Which poll had biden winning South Carolina by 30?
Democratic voters are sheep, they are just riding the tide of the presumed frontrunner. Go tell a pete or soft bernie supporter that biden is now the frontrunner again after South Carolina, and watch them flip back to biden.
None. Not even close. The range leading up to Saturday had him winning by 8-16 points.
(03-01-2020 07:18 PM)Kronke Wrote: With pete dropping out, I imagine biden and bloomberg just picked up a few points each. Could flip a few states for biden and put bloomberg over 15% to become viable.
That other poll showed his followers split.
I don't think Biden or Bloomberg particularly appeal to his voters. But then they may not like Sanders.
In the polls that came out in the last couple of days, Pete had 9 TX, 10 NC, 7 CA, 14 MA, 18 UT, 8 VA, 12 CO, 8 FL, 13 WI.
Muh polls.
Which poll had biden winning South Carolina by 30?
Democratic voters are sheep, they are just riding the tide of the presumed frontrunner. Go tell a pete or soft bernie supporter that biden is now the frontrunner again after South Carolina, and watch them flip back to biden.
None. Not even close. The range leading up to Saturday had him winning by 8-16 points.
Given both of these posts, I do kinda wonder if a lot of people changed their minds this week based off the MSM's meltdown once it looked like Bernie had a ton of momentum.
(03-01-2020 07:18 PM)Kronke Wrote: With pete dropping out, I imagine biden and bloomberg just picked up a few points each. Could flip a few states for biden and put bloomberg over 15% to become viable.
That other poll showed his followers split.
I don't think Biden or Bloomberg particularly appeal to his voters. But then they may not like Sanders.
In the polls that came out in the last couple of days, Pete had 9 TX, 10 NC, 7 CA, 14 MA, 18 UT, 8 VA, 12 CO, 8 FL, 13 WI.
Muh polls.
Which poll had biden winning South Carolina by 30?
Democratic voters are sheep, they are just riding the tide of the presumed frontrunner. Go tell a pete or soft bernie supporter that biden is now the frontrunner again after South Carolina, and watch them flip back to biden.
None. Not even close. The range leading up to Saturday had him winning by 8-16 points.
I saw some 18-20. It was increasing in the closing days. Petey, Warren and Steyer faded. Sanders still got about what was predicted.
But of course, the polls are all over the place. You may see two the same day and there is no way that good samples could have that much variation.
(This post was last modified: 03-02-2020 11:21 AM by bullet.)
(03-01-2020 07:18 PM)Kronke Wrote: With pete dropping out, I imagine biden and bloomberg just picked up a few points each. Could flip a few states for biden and put bloomberg over 15% to become viable.
That other poll showed his followers split.
I don't think Biden or Bloomberg particularly appeal to his voters. But then they may not like Sanders.
In the polls that came out in the last couple of days, Pete had 9 TX, 10 NC, 7 CA, 14 MA, 18 UT, 8 VA, 12 CO, 8 FL, 13 WI.
Muh polls.
Which poll had biden winning South Carolina by 30?
Democratic voters are sheep, they are just riding the tide of the presumed frontrunner. Go tell a pete or soft bernie supporter that biden is now the frontrunner again after South Carolina, and watch them flip back to biden.
None. Not even close. The range leading up to Saturday had him winning by 8-16 points.
I saw some 18-20. It was increasing in the closing days. Petey, Warren and Steyer faded. Sanders still got about what was predicted.
But of course, the polls are all over the place. You may see two the same day and there is no way that good samples could have that much variation.
muh main two pet peeves relative to 'muh poles'?
1. the sample size is NEVER large enough or unbiased due to geo-cultural alignment being sampled....
2. people like me (the sadistic version) will simply dick with the pollster for shites and gigs...
(03-01-2020 07:18 PM)Kronke Wrote: With pete dropping out, I imagine biden and bloomberg just picked up a few points each. Could flip a few states for biden and put bloomberg over 15% to become viable.
That other poll showed his followers split.
I don't think Biden or Bloomberg particularly appeal to his voters. But then they may not like Sanders.
In the polls that came out in the last couple of days, Pete had 9 TX, 10 NC, 7 CA, 14 MA, 18 UT, 8 VA, 12 CO, 8 FL, 13 WI.
Muh polls.
Which poll had biden winning South Carolina by 30?
Democratic voters are sheep, they are just riding the tide of the presumed frontrunner. Go tell a pete or soft bernie supporter that biden is now the frontrunner again after South Carolina, and watch them flip back to biden.
None. Not even close. The range leading up to Saturday had him winning by 8-16 points.
I saw some 18-20. It was increasing in the closing days. Petey, Warren and Steyer faded. Sanders still got about what was predicted.
But of course, the polls are all over the place. You may see two the same day and there is no way that good samples could have that much variation.
If you look at the exit polling the Clyburn endorsement late really really mattered. I’m not sure there’s any other state where any single endorsement would matter more. Biden would have still won SC, but my guess is much closer to the polling margins than the reality without the endorsement. He’s gotta get some wins on Super Tuesday for this to matter, but he’s absolutely given himself a chance. Biden has really benefitted by no one attacking him at all during the last few debates. If he bounces heat will come back and I don’t think he’s mentally capable of firing back anymore.
(03-01-2020 07:47 PM)bullet Wrote: That other poll showed his followers split.
I don't think Biden or Bloomberg particularly appeal to his voters. But then they may not like Sanders.
In the polls that came out in the last couple of days, Pete had 9 TX, 10 NC, 7 CA, 14 MA, 18 UT, 8 VA, 12 CO, 8 FL, 13 WI.
Muh polls.
Which poll had biden winning South Carolina by 30?
Democratic voters are sheep, they are just riding the tide of the presumed frontrunner. Go tell a pete or soft bernie supporter that biden is now the frontrunner again after South Carolina, and watch them flip back to biden.
None. Not even close. The range leading up to Saturday had him winning by 8-16 points.
I saw some 18-20. It was increasing in the closing days. Petey, Warren and Steyer faded. Sanders still got about what was predicted.
But of course, the polls are all over the place. You may see two the same day and there is no way that good samples could have that much variation.
If you look at the exit polling the Clyburn endorsement late really really mattered. I’m not sure there’s any other state where any single endorsement would matter more. Biden would have still won SC, but my guess is much closer to the polling margins than the reality without the endorsement. He’s gotta get some wins on Super Tuesday for this to matter, but he’s absolutely given himself a chance. Biden has really benefitted by no one attacking him at all during the last few debates. If he bounces heat will come back and I don’t think he’s mentally capable of firing back anymore.
Bernie is the spring chicken at 78!
Donald is a flat out youngster at 73 compared to the Democrats.
Tells you something is not right about this system. Warren, Klobuchar and Gabbard are already out of it whether they have dropped out or not so its the 3 ancient white guys and the youngster President Trump.
Dems had a bunch of ancient white people running in 2016 too. Perhaps it was Obama sucking the life out of the party by making it a personal cult for 8 years while it got wrecked at the state level.
![[Image: 1b32b8c5d5c6d95a453fcfd6185286994a937cde...;amp;h=292]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b32b8c5d5c6d95a453fcfd6185286994a937cde0e2b86350b0df262d21894bd.jpg?w=600&h=292)
