Is today's early market plunge due to the virus? Or due to Bernie?

I'm leaning Bernie.

What do you think?

(FYI - It's early. Before noon for the markets.)

Virus. Wuhan has become uncontrollable.

News points to the virus. However, as usual, I'll use it as an opportunity to buy.

Fox Business host Charles Payne blames much of today's Dow plunge on Bernie Sanders' Nevada win:

"The Bernie factor is finally rearing its head in the stock market...there's absolutely no doubt."

(02-24-2020 11:18 AM)Claw Wrote:  Is today's early market plunge due to the virus? Or due to Bernie?

I'm leaning Bernie.

What do you think?

(FYI - It's early. Before noon for the markets.)

You're leaning all right!

I don't think the virus news changed that much from Friday to today.

Perhaps the world disagrees.

(02-24-2020 11:31 AM)Claw Wrote:  I don't think the virus news changed that much from Friday to today.

Perhaps the world disagrees.

Yes, it did. And yes, they do.

Italy and Iran are becoming hotbeds. First case in Syria. News is getting worse and the market is reacting.

(02-24-2020 11:34 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:31 AM)Claw Wrote:  I don't think the virus news changed that much from Friday to today.

Perhaps the world disagrees.

Yes, it did. And yes, they do.

Thanks a lot Trump.

(02-24-2020 11:37 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  Italy and Iran are becoming hotbeds. First case in Syria. News is getting worse and the market is reacting.

Iran and Syria will not impact the free markets at all.

Italy, maybe some.

None of them make a blip compared to China and South Korea. Korea is the one that actually matters.

Virus. Too early for Bernie as a potential nominee to have that much of an impact. Let him win a few unexpected southern states and the market will react.

(02-24-2020 11:48 AM)Claw Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:37 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  Italy and Iran are becoming hotbeds. First case in Syria. News is getting worse and the market is reacting.

Iran and Syria will not impact the free markets at all.

Italy, maybe some.

None of them make a blip compared to China and South Korea. Korea is the one that actually matters.

Of course, but the market does look at the overall picture and see where this is heading. SK is the the biggest issue, but Italy also presents a huge worry.

(02-24-2020 11:18 AM)Claw Wrote:  Is today's early market plunge due to the virus? Or due to Bernie?

I'm leaning Bernie.

What do you think?

(FYI - It's early. Before noon for the markets.)

Its not Bernie. The stock market basically works on conventional wisdom. I doubt enough big market participants believe Bernie is going to win the 2020 election to cause a plunge. We have been well over tyypical historical valuation levels for a while. An overvalued condition can persist for quite some time. Its often some unpredictable "Black Swan" type of event that causes a price collapse. Wuhan could potentially be that type of event. Time will tell.

(02-24-2020 11:51 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:48 AM)Claw Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:37 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  Italy and Iran are becoming hotbeds. First case in Syria. News is getting worse and the market is reacting.

Iran and Syria will not impact the free markets at all.

Italy, maybe some.

None of them make a blip compared to China and South Korea. Korea is the one that actually matters.

Of course, but the market does look at the overall picture and see where this is heading. SK is the the biggest issue, but Italy also presents a huge worry.

As far as global impacts, I'm more interested in Italy. Can Italy manage the virus efficiently, or will it get out of control as easily there as it has in China?

(02-24-2020 11:58 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:51 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:48 AM)Claw Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:37 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  Italy and Iran are becoming hotbeds. First case in Syria. News is getting worse and the market is reacting.

Iran and Syria will not impact the free markets at all.

Italy, maybe some.

None of them make a blip compared to China and South Korea. Korea is the one that actually matters.

Of course, but the market does look at the overall picture and see where this is heading. SK is the the biggest issue, but Italy also presents a huge worry.

As far as global impacts, I'm more interested in Italy. Can Italy manage the virus efficiently, or will it get out of control as easily there as it has in China?

Yeah---it will be an interesting experiment. I would think it would be easier for a repressive dictatorship to impose extremely restrictive controls on its population than it would be in a free society. I wouldnt be surprised if Italy is even less successful than China at controlling its spread.

(02-24-2020 11:58 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:51 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:48 AM)Claw Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:37 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  Italy and Iran are becoming hotbeds. First case in Syria. News is getting worse and the market is reacting.

Iran and Syria will not impact the free markets at all.

Italy, maybe some.

None of them make a blip compared to China and South Korea. Korea is the one that actually matters.

Of course, but the market does look at the overall picture and see where this is heading. SK is the the biggest issue, but Italy also presents a huge worry.

As far as global impacts, I'm more interested in Italy. Can Italy manage the virus efficiently, or will it get out of control as easily there as it has in China?

The EU said this morning that they won't close borders between EU countries. Poor decision.

(02-24-2020 12:03 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:58 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:51 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:48 AM)Claw Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:37 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  Italy and Iran are becoming hotbeds. First case in Syria. News is getting worse and the market is reacting.

Iran and Syria will not impact the free markets at all.

Italy, maybe some.

None of them make a blip compared to China and South Korea. Korea is the one that actually matters.

Of course, but the market does look at the overall picture and see where this is heading. SK is the the biggest issue, but Italy also presents a huge worry.

As far as global impacts, I'm more interested in Italy. Can Italy manage the virus efficiently, or will it get out of control as easily there as it has in China?

Yeah---it will be an interesting experiment. I would think it would be easier for a repressive dictatorship to impose extremely restrictive controls on its population than a free society. I wouldnt be surprised if Italy is even less successful than China at controlling its spread.

I'm more talking about conditions that favor the virus versus the infected. Population density, genetic makeup, climate, health care access, etc.

South Korea's Kospi (KOSPI) index closed down nearly 3.9%, its worst day since October 2018, after coronavirus cases in the country surged past 800. Italy's main index finished down 5.4%, after the number of cases there topped 200 — including five deaths — and authorities started shutting down public buildings, schools and sports events in parts of the country.

European exchanges ended the day in sharply in the red, with the United Kingdom's FTSE 100 (UKX) closing down 3.3%.
Germany's DAX (DAX) has shed 4%, and the French CAC 40 (CAC40) also fell nearly 4%.

Do you think any of those countries care if Bernie won the Nevada primary (which wasn't a surprise anyway)?

It's obviously the virus, if you spend 5 minutes listening to financial analysts and not political partisans. And yes, there was a big difference in reporting over the weekend, with previously unreported spikes in Italy and Iran.

Regardless of their financial import, the idea that the virus can spread that far away and that quickly means it can spread anywhere. THAT makes markets everywhere nervous. And they tend to have a domino effect.

Wondering how long before the ACLU starts campaigning to let Chinese refugees come to America.