(02-27-2020 10:39 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 03:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 02:43 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 02:21 PM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  Any thoughts on the Coronavirus being a retaliation against the US economy for the tariffs?

my post from the previous page.

(02-24-2020 08:17 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Count me as a conspiracy theorist on this if you want, but I'm firmly in the camp that this was a bio weapon that got out. Not only that, but it's a bio weapon that is doing exactly what it is starting to do - wreak economic havoc. Designed to scare the world enough that markets would crash and cripple economic rivals. I dont necessarily think china meant to let it out now, but who knows. Their economy is crashing hard without the virus, this could be their way of dragging us down with them.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Either a virus designed to cripple economies got out by mistake, or China knows their economy is collapsing on it's own and the easiest way to bring the rest of the world down with them was letting this virus out in China and watch it ripple through the rest of the world economy. I wouldn't put it past them.

No way it was planned. This mess is likely to have a very bad LONG term effect on China as manufacturers realize there is significant risk in having supply chains in countries like China. I suspect one result will be to spur even more companies to move more of their supply chain back to the US. Frankly, if this virus was manufactured---I'd bet it was designed to keep a population under control. Two places where it would likely be very effective would be Hong Kong and Iran---both places where you have long running growing demonstrations. It is interesting to note---you have outbreaks in both Hong Kong and Iran.

Those that are comparing China's economy with a "normal" country's economy are all wrong. The Chinese government is composed of basically one person and his close allies. The same guy who has bragged about killing off enemies and protagonists. As long as the "ruler" and is allies are not affected who cares? So if a half a million people die directly and another half a million die indirectly afterwards, who cares? It is a COMMUNIST COUNTRY ruled by a "ruler for life". Xi Jinping doesn't give a flip about "his economy" or "his workers" as long as he is taken care of. Which of course he is and will be as long as he is alive. Once it became known the Chinese refused our help, it became obvious. Also, how is that Protest in Hong Kong going? Anyone who dismisses this as planned is naive.

The leadership doesnt care about their people---but they do fear them. Lets not forget that the current government was born from revolution fermented by a poor hopeless working class. There are over a billion of them. There is a reason that China gives people jobs building cities that nobody lives in and shopping mall with no stores. They care about their economy because thats how they maintain power. I guess its possible they would do this on purpose---but I think its very very unlikely.

(02-27-2020 11:26 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 10:39 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 03:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 02:43 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 02:21 PM)ECUGrad07 Wrote:  Any thoughts on the Coronavirus being a retaliation against the US economy for the tariffs?

my post from the previous page.

(02-24-2020 08:17 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Count me as a conspiracy theorist on this if you want, but I'm firmly in the camp that this was a bio weapon that got out. Not only that, but it's a bio weapon that is doing exactly what it is starting to do - wreak economic havoc. Designed to scare the world enough that markets would crash and cripple economic rivals. I dont necessarily think china meant to let it out now, but who knows. Their economy is crashing hard without the virus, this could be their way of dragging us down with them.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Either a virus designed to cripple economies got out by mistake, or China knows their economy is collapsing on it's own and the easiest way to bring the rest of the world down with them was letting this virus out in China and watch it ripple through the rest of the world economy. I wouldn't put it past them.

No way it was planned. This mess is likely to have a very bad LONG term effect on China as manufacturers realize there is significant risk in having supply chains in countries like China. I suspect one result will be to spur even more companies to move more of their supply chain back to the US. Frankly, if this virus was manufactured---I'd bet it was designed to keep a population under control. Two places where it would likely be very effective would be Hong Kong and Iran---both places where you have long running growing demonstrations. It is interesting to note---you have outbreaks in both Hong Kong and Iran.

Those that are comparing China's economy with a "normal" country's economy are all wrong. The Chinese government is composed of basically one person and his close allies. The same guy who has bragged about killing off enemies and protagonists. As long as the "ruler" and is allies are not affected who cares? So if a half a million people die directly and another half a million die indirectly afterwards, who cares? It is a COMMUNIST COUNTRY ruled by a "ruler for life". Xi Jinping doesn't give a flip about "his economy" or "his workers" as long as he is taken care of. Which of course he is and will be as long as he is alive. Once it became known the Chinese refused our help, it became obvious. Also, how is that Protest in Hong Kong going? Anyone who dismisses this as planned is naive.

The leadership doesnt care about their people---but they do fear them. Lets not forget that the current government was born from revolution fermented by a poor hopeless working class. There are over a billion of them. There is a reason that China gives people jobs building cities that nobody lives in and shopping mall with no stores. They care about their economy because thats how they maintain power. I guess its possible they would do this on purpose---but I think its very very unlikely.

But something like this makes the "population" more dependent on the government than ever before. They are literally dragging people from their homes to never be seen again. Wouldn't keeping them in their homes make more sense?

(02-27-2020 11:21 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 10:55 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 04:34 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 01:47 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  ...having to wait a month or more for that car made in China, suddenly that slightly more expensive one made in the US looks better. Bad for investors... not as bad for American workers

Just a slight problem with that. Tesla is the only US car maker that makes its cars entirely in the US...and they don't even use all American made parts.

All the other US car makers rely heavily on imported parts and cars made in other countries. Granted most are from Mexico and Canada, but when dealing with international trade, it's all going to be effected by these virus fears.

Not nit-picking, but I'm pretty sure all Hyundai's sold in the US are built entirely in Alabama. They may import parts from S. Korea though.

Perhaps, but they're not a US car maker.

Perhaps not American owned, but built and headquartered in the US makes them more of a US car maker than Ford and Chevy in many aspects.

(02-27-2020 12:46 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 11:21 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 10:55 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 04:34 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 01:47 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  ...having to wait a month or more for that car made in China, suddenly that slightly more expensive one made in the US looks better. Bad for investors... not as bad for American workers

Just a slight problem with that. Tesla is the only US car maker that makes its cars entirely in the US...and they don't even use all American made parts.

All the other US car makers rely heavily on imported parts and cars made in other countries. Granted most are from Mexico and Canada, but when dealing with international trade, it's all going to be effected by these virus fears.

Not nit-picking, but I'm pretty sure all Hyundai's sold in the US are built entirely in Alabama. They may import parts from S. Korea though.

Perhaps, but they're not a US car maker.

Perhaps not American owned, but built and headquartered in the US makes them more of a US car maker than Ford and Chevy in many aspects.

Not a coincidence Trump was in India earlier this week. Look for more factories making American needed goods to be made in India going forward. Gotta get away from the dependence on China.

(02-27-2020 01:13 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 12:46 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 11:21 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 10:55 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 04:34 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Just a slight problem with that. Tesla is the only US car maker that makes its cars entirely in the US...and they don't even use all American made parts.

All the other US car makers rely heavily on imported parts and cars made in other countries. Granted most are from Mexico and Canada, but when dealing with international trade, it's all going to be effected by these virus fears.

Not nit-picking, but I'm pretty sure all Hyundai's sold in the US are built entirely in Alabama. They may import parts from S. Korea though.

Perhaps, but they're not a US car maker.

Perhaps not American owned, but built and headquartered in the US makes them more of a US car maker than Ford and Chevy in many aspects.

Not a coincidence Trump was in India earlier this week. Look for more factories making American needed goods to be made in India going forward. Gotta get away from the dependence on China.

Some of this will remain overseas---but after the last few years (Ebola scares, SARS, plus tariff issues), there are going to be more companies that simply move production back to the US.

(02-27-2020 11:46 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 11:26 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 10:39 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 03:19 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 02:43 PM)200yrs2late Wrote:  my post from the previous page.



Either a virus designed to cripple economies got out by mistake, or China knows their economy is collapsing on it's own and the easiest way to bring the rest of the world down with them was letting this virus out in China and watch it ripple through the rest of the world economy. I wouldn't put it past them.

No way it was planned. This mess is likely to have a very bad LONG term effect on China as manufacturers realize there is significant risk in having supply chains in countries like China. I suspect one result will be to spur even more companies to move more of their supply chain back to the US. Frankly, if this virus was manufactured---I'd bet it was designed to keep a population under control. Two places where it would likely be very effective would be Hong Kong and Iran---both places where you have long running growing demonstrations. It is interesting to note---you have outbreaks in both Hong Kong and Iran.

Those that are comparing China's economy with a "normal" country's economy are all wrong. The Chinese government is composed of basically one person and his close allies. The same guy who has bragged about killing off enemies and protagonists. As long as the "ruler" and is allies are not affected who cares? So if a half a million people die directly and another half a million die indirectly afterwards, who cares? It is a COMMUNIST COUNTRY ruled by a "ruler for life". Xi Jinping doesn't give a flip about "his economy" or "his workers" as long as he is taken care of. Which of course he is and will be as long as he is alive. Once it became known the Chinese refused our help, it became obvious. Also, how is that Protest in Hong Kong going? Anyone who dismisses this as planned is naive.

The leadership doesnt care about their people---but they do fear them. Lets not forget that the current government was born from revolution fermented by a poor hopeless working class. There are over a billion of them. There is a reason that China gives people jobs building cities that nobody lives in and shopping mall with no stores. They care about their economy because thats how they maintain power. I guess its possible they would do this on purpose---but I think its very very unlikely.

But something like this makes the "population" more dependent on the government than ever before. They are literally dragging people from their homes to never be seen again. Wouldn't keeping them in their homes make more sense?

They are completely dependent on the government. So--if they get desperate---who's going to be the target? All Im saying is there are 1.3 billion people there. While the government doesnt care about any one individual---they are scared to death of that 1.3 billion person mob. In a mass uprising---the army wont protect the leadership (hell, the army are the sons and daughters of the people). The Army is far more likely to take control themselves. That's usually how it works. Thus, its very important to the leadership that the people have jobs and feel things are at least tolerable. Its totally self interest---not any big concern for the people.

Dow taking another blood bath today. Where's the bottom to this?

I guess I picked the wrong week to increase my 401(k) contribution percentage.

(02-27-2020 03:25 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Dow taking another blood bath today. Where's the bottom to this?

I guess I picked the wrong week to increase my 401(k) contribution percentage.

Unless you're retiring in the next 2-3 years it's the perfect time to be increasing your contribution.

(02-27-2020 11:21 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 10:55 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 04:34 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(02-26-2020 01:47 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  ...having to wait a month or more for that car made in China, suddenly that slightly more expensive one made in the US looks better. Bad for investors... not as bad for American workers

Just a slight problem with that. Tesla is the only US car maker that makes its cars entirely in the US...and they don't even use all American made parts.

All the other US car makers rely heavily on imported parts and cars made in other countries. Granted most are from Mexico and Canada, but when dealing with international trade, it's all going to be effected by these virus fears.

Not nit-picking, but I'm pretty sure all Hyundai's sold in the US are built entirely in Alabama. They may import parts from S. Korea though.

Perhaps, but they're not a US car maker.

Bad for investors... not as bad for American workers, just as I said.

(02-27-2020 03:26 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 03:25 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Dow taking another blood bath today. Where's the bottom to this?

I guess I picked the wrong week to increase my 401(k) contribution percentage.

Unless you're retiring in the next 2-3 years it's the perfect time to be increasing your contribution.

Yeah...I've got a few more years of work than that. Not really worried about it.

(02-27-2020 03:41 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 03:26 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 03:25 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Dow taking another blood bath today. Where's the bottom to this?

I guess I picked the wrong week to increase my 401(k) contribution percentage.

Unless you're retiring in the next 2-3 years it's the perfect time to be increasing your contribution.

Yeah...I've got a few more years of work than that. Not really worried about it.

This is a temporary blip---but....it may cause a serious reset in valuations. Right now, valuations had reached the point that suggested market participants no longer considered stocks as having any real risk. The crisis will pass in 12-18 months at most-----but the willingness of investors to pay 20 times earnings may take much much longer to return....or not---we will see.

(02-27-2020 04:44 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 03:41 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 03:26 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 03:25 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Dow taking another blood bath today. Where's the bottom to this?

I guess I picked the wrong week to increase my 401(k) contribution percentage.

Unless you're retiring in the next 2-3 years it's the perfect time to be increasing your contribution.

Yeah...I've got a few more years of work than that. Not really worried about it.

This is a temporary blip---but....it may cause a serious reset in valuations. Right now, valuations had reached the point that suggested market participants no longer considered stocks as having any real risk. The crisis will pass in 12-18 months at most-----but the willingness of investors to pay 20 times earnings may take much much longer to return....or not---we will see.

I believe as long as the inflow to 401K's exceeds the outflow, the market will be inflated by those essentially blind investments.

-1,190.95 (4.42%)

Largest ever single day point drop. However, it still doesn't crack the top 20 when it comes to drops by percentage rather than points.

(02-27-2020 05:29 PM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  -1,190.95 (4.42%)

Largest ever single day point drop. However, it still doesn't crack the top 20 when it comes to drops by percentage rather than points.

The market has climbed so high these days, it would take almost a 6,000 point pull back to qualify as a "bear market" retrenchment (20% or more). We are down around 3600 points over the last 6 days.

(02-27-2020 03:25 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Dow taking another blood bath today. Where's the bottom to this?

I guess I picked the wrong week to increase my 401(k) contribution percentage.

As long as there isnt a spike in cases from China, I'd say another 700-1000 points. If all holds well over the weekend there could be an uptick in the market early next week.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

I really see no reason for this kind of drop. I know for fact the feds are already working with major corporations to be sure disaster recovery plans are ready allowing employees to work remotely to reduce both spread of any outbreak and the associated economic impact.

(02-27-2020 07:06 PM)THE NC Herd Fan Wrote:  I really see no reason for this kind of drop. I know for fact the feds are already working with major corporations to be sure disaster recovery plans are ready allowing employees to work remotely to reduce both spread of any outbreak and the associated economic impact.

Frankly, the market has been over valued for a while. That said, stocks can stay over valued or even become more overvalued for long periods as long as nothing happens to shake the confidence that everything is perfect. This was just a trigger that got investors to re-evaluate the risk in stocks at their current lofty valuations. The thing is---the market tends to act like a ruberband. When corrections have a snap back---they dont necessarily slide to the exact median valuation. Instead, they will generally over correct on the downside just as they can over value on the way up.

(02-27-2020 03:25 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Dow taking another blood bath today. Where's the bottom to this?

I guess I picked the wrong week to increase my 401(k) contribution percentage.

The bottom should be in by mid-November. But it's good to be buying the downturn.

(02-27-2020 09:57 PM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 03:25 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Dow taking another blood bath today. Where's the bottom to this?

I guess I picked the wrong week to increase my 401(k) contribution percentage.

The bottom should be in by mid-November. But it's good to be buying the downturn.

For sure we are entering an extended period of uncertainty. This isn’t something that is going to resolve in a few days or weeks. The Fed doesn’t have a magic fix for this one.

(02-27-2020 03:26 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 03:25 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Dow taking another blood bath today. Where's the bottom to this?

I guess I picked the wrong week to increase my 401(k) contribution percentage.

Unless you're retiring in the next 2-3 years it's the perfect time to be increasing your contribution.

Exactly, I upped my 401k conribution to take advantage of the dip in the market. Did the same thing back during the Great Recession and that worked out pretty well. No way in Hades I'd be in this market for the short term though.