This chart is scary, Italy seems to be on the same path as Wuhan.

(02-24-2020 01:57 PM)TripleA Wrote:  It's obviously the virus, if you spend 5 minutes listening to financial analysts and not political partisans. And yes, there was a big difference in reporting over the weekend, with previously unreported spikes in Italy and Iran.

Regardless of their financial import, the idea that the virus can spread that far away and that quickly means it can spread anywhere. THAT makes markets everywhere nervous. And they tend to have a domino effect.

I like what Buffett came out and said, "Investors shouldn’t panic by selling stocks based or get caught up in “today’s headlines.” I guess that's primarily long term focused. I don't do short term market stuff.

(02-24-2020 01:09 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  South Korea's Kospi (KOSPI) index closed down nearly 3.9%, its worst day since October 2018, after coronavirus cases in the country surged past 800. Italy's main index finished down 5.4%, after the number of cases there topped 200 — including five deaths — and authorities started shutting down public buildings, schools and sports events in parts of the country.

European exchanges ended the day in sharply in the red, with the United Kingdom's FTSE 100 (UKX) closing down 3.3%.
Germany's DAX (DAX) has shed 4%, and the French CAC 40 (CAC40) also fell nearly 4%.

Do you think any of those countries care if Bernie won the Nevada primary (which wasn't a surprise anyway)?

Bingo. Bernie was ~80% to win Nevada per the oddsmakers. That win would have already been priced in. The only time he would move the market like this is if he were to upset Trump, the dems won back the Senate, and held the House.

I also saw someone mention Charles Payne. He isn't an analyst, he's a shill and a cheerleader. He's never not bullish.

(02-24-2020 11:50 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  Virus. Too early for Bernie as a potential nominee to have that much of an impact. Let him win a few unexpected southern states and the market will react.

Very doubtful. Those things would have to happen...and then and only if Bernie was starting to be projected as being able to defeat trump. We're a long way from either of things being a known reality.

The other thing to note about the markets is that downstream supply of manufactured parts is going to start hitting pretty hard on sales numbers for suppliers here shortly. I'd start looking at which companies have high volume of components in assembled products coming from Central China and short every one of them...it's already hitting some tech suppliers, and it won't stop for a long time. Any person involved in Supply Chain Management understand how much a 2 month+ shut down of minor component production will do to end product assembly.

(02-24-2020 11:18 AM)Claw Wrote:  Is today's early market plunge due to the virus? Or due to Bernie?

I'm leaning Bernie.

What do you think?

(FYI - It's early. Before noon for the markets.)

A lot is due to the virus, but I'd bet the commie-love by the dims standard bearer didn't help matters any.

China is on complete lockdown, I mean nothing is moving over there. Including their people. They had all traveled home for the Christmas/ New Years celebration, then they got stuck there when they shut everything down. Even when they DO allowed travel again it will be another 2 weeks or so at least before things are back to "normal". It's gonna ding some areas of imports, and supply-chain stuff. Shouldn't be a huge meltdown or anything, but I'd say about a 1000 point selloff is about right.

As of today (tomorrow) things are starting to move through in certain areas. Assuming we don't have some giant additional relapse from people moving again, this will likely be the beginning of the end for the slowdown/shutdown.

(02-24-2020 11:53 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:18 AM)Claw Wrote:  Is today's early market plunge due to the virus? Or due to Bernie?

I'm leaning Bernie.

What do you think?

(FYI - It's early. Before noon for the markets.)

Its not Bernie. The stock market basically works on conventional wisdom. I doubt enough big market participants believe Bernie is going to win the 2020 election to cause a plunge. We have been well over tyypical historical valuation levels for a while. An overvalued condition can persist for quite some time. Its often some unpredictable "Black Swan" type of event that causes a price collapse. Wuhan could potentially be that type of event. Time will tell.

Not to argue per se, but Wuhan is that type of event and time has told. The lying commie regime over there has known about this since around a week after our Thanksgiving and at first did nothing, hoping it could be contained. It wasn't.

They have their fingers in an awful lot of our pots, everything from that iphone your using to the yellow blow up ducky raft you use at the beach.

There is still an immense amount of product en route via shipping and stacked on the docks on the East coast for delivery to our West coast, so there's some flexibility built in. But a few more weeks or another month of this and we could see some downstream impact on supplies of parts, finished product and even some pharmaceuticals and medical supplies. Can only hope is doesn't get a major foothold in India or say Indonesia or other.

(02-24-2020 12:06 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:58 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:51 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:48 AM)Claw Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:37 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  Italy and Iran are becoming hotbeds. First case in Syria. News is getting worse and the market is reacting.

Iran and Syria will not impact the free markets at all.

Italy, maybe some.

None of them make a blip compared to China and South Korea. Korea is the one that actually matters.

Of course, but the market does look at the overall picture and see where this is heading. SK is the the biggest issue, but Italy also presents a huge worry.

As far as global impacts, I'm more interested in Italy. Can Italy manage the virus efficiently, or will it get out of control as easily there as it has in China?

The EU said this morning that they won't close borders between EU countries. Poor decision.

And there ya go. Britain just let out a sigh of relief. Again.

meh, it was due for a correction anyway.

(02-24-2020 04:41 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  The other thing to note about the markets is that downstream supply of manufactured parts is going to start hitting pretty hard on sales numbers for suppliers here shortly. I'd start looking at which companies have high volume of components in assembled products coming from Central China and short every one of them...it's already hitting some tech suppliers, and it won't stop for a long time. Any person involved in Supply Chain Management understand how much a 2 month+ shut down of minor component production will do to end product assembly.

Spot on.

(02-24-2020 04:57 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:18 AM)Claw Wrote:  Is today's early market plunge due to the virus? Or due to Bernie?

I'm leaning Bernie.

What do you think?

(FYI - It's early. Before noon for the markets.)

A lot is due to the virus, but I'd bet the commie-love by the dims standard bearer didn't help matters any.

China is on complete lockdown, I mean nothing is moving over there. Including their people. They had all traveled home for the Christmas/ New Years celebration, then they got stuck there when they shut everything down. Even when they DO allowed travel again it will be another 2 weeks or so at least before things are back to "normal". It's gonna ding some areas of imports, and supply-chain stuff. Shouldn't be a huge meltdown or anything, but I'd say about a 1000 point selloff is about right.

As of today (tomorrow) things are starting to move through in certain areas. Assuming we don't have some giant additional relapse from people moving again, this will likely be the beginning of the end for the slowdown/shutdown.

To be fair---everything you just said was known on Friday. What the market is reacting to is a situation where multiple western nations are on either forced lock down---or virtual lock downs driven by fear. People dont go to the market, to the movies, to athletic events, shows, resturaunts if they think an infectious virus that might kill them is lurking out there. They go to the grocery store and stay at home. Even if there is not an official lock down---there will be a significant decline in recreational spending and likely an increase in missed work time. That kind or thing is not really priced into the market. This weekends increase in cases outside of China upped the chances of that possibility. Whats a reasonable correction for that? Who knows? And thats the problem. Waaaaaay to many unknowns.....and markets absolutely hate unknowns.

This virus was probably engineered by the democrats to tank the economy and cost Trump the election.

(02-24-2020 07:19 PM)Niner National Wrote:  This virus was probably engineered by the democrats to tank the economy and cost Trump the election.

You're not giving us evil Democrats enough credit. We've developed a virus which will make every Republican violently ill and unable to vote in November since they'll be throwing up all day. It's called BWIN (which stands for Bernie winning in November).

You heard it here first. If I don't post much in the future, it's because the Clintons got to me.

Count me as a conspiracy theorist on this if you want, but I'm firmly in the camp that this was a bio weapon that got out. Not only that, but it's a bio weapon that is doing exactly what it is starting to do - wreak economic havoc. Designed to scare the world enough that markets would crash and cripple economic rivals. I dont necessarily think china meant to let it out now, but who knows. Their economy is crashing hard without the virus, this could be their way of dragging us down with them.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

(02-24-2020 04:41 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  The other thing to note about the markets is that downstream supply of manufactured parts is going to start hitting pretty hard on sales numbers for suppliers here shortly. I'd start looking at which companies have high volume of components in assembled products coming from Central China and short every one of them...it's already hitting some tech suppliers, and it won't stop for a long time. Any person involved in Supply Chain Management understand how much a 2 month+ shut down of minor component production will do to end product assembly.

As the former Operations Manager for a Honda Assembly facility, I can’t say how true the above statement is. In 2011 after the Tsunami hit the Japanese Islands we started off lining vehicles for parts shortages, primarily electronic components, in less than a month. After 6 weeks my lines were shutdown.

A small number of automotive manufacturing facilities use components from China, if the Coronavirus scare hits Japan hard, it will again shutdown some Japanese assembly operations here in the states.

Combination of market correction and supply chain problems with parts coming from China. Some think we might see a 10% bump downward. I actually hope so. I called my broker this afternoon and discussed putting some cash reserves back in play. Regardless of why?.. This is buying opportunity.

(02-24-2020 11:58 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  As far as global impacts, I'm more interested in Italy. Can Italy manage the virus efficiently, or will it get out of control as easily there as it has in China?

It's been the better part of two millennia since Italy managed anything particularly well.

(02-24-2020 09:08 PM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 11:58 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  As far as global impacts, I'm more interested in Italy. Can Italy manage the virus efficiently, or will it get out of control as easily there as it has in China?

It's been the better part of two millennia since Italy managed anything particularly well.

lol....Thats a pretty good point. If it aint about good food---then they will likely make a mess of it.

It's been overbought. Unrealistic mania gets corrected eventually. Look for more big drops to come.

(02-25-2020 07:51 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  It's been overbought. Unrealistic mania gets corrected eventually. Look for more big drops to come.

Exciting times for you huh? Bet you wish this was July or August though.