The Coronavirus May Be ‘Disease X’ Health Experts Warned About

Quote:(Bloomberg) -- The World Health Organization cautioned years ago that a mysterious “disease X” could spark an international contagion. The new coronavirus, with its ability to quickly morph from mild to deadly, is emerging as a contender.

From recent reports about the stealthy ways the so-called Covid-19 virus spreads and maims, a picture is emerging of an enigmatic pathogen whose effects are mainly mild, but which occasionally -- and unpredictably -- turns deadly in the second week. In less than three months, it’s infected almost 78,000 people, mostly in China, and killed more than 2,300. Emerging hot spots in South Korea, Iran and Italy have stoked further alarm.

“Whether it will be contained or not, this outbreak is rapidly becoming the first true pandemic challenge that fits the disease X category,” Marion Koopmans, head of viroscience at Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, and a member of the WHO’s emergency committee, wrote Wednesday in the journal Cell.

The disease has now spread to more than two dozen countries and territories. Some of those infected caught the virus in their local community and have no known link to China, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

“We are not seeing community spread here in the United States yet, but it’s very possible -- even likely -- that it may eventually happen,” Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Friday.

Unlike SARS, its viral cousin, the Covid-19 virus replicates at high concentrations in the nose and throat akin to the common cold, and appears capable of spreading from those who show no, or mild, symptoms. That makes it impossible to control using the fever-checking measures that helped stop SARS 17 years ago.

Spreading Surreptitiously
A cluster of cases within a family living in the Chinese city of Anyang is presumed to have begun when a 20-year-old woman carried the virus from Wuhan, the outbreak’s epicenter, on Jan. 10 and spread it while experiencing no illness, researchers said Friday in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Five relatives subsequently developed fever and respiratory symptoms. Covid-19 is less deadly than SARS, which had a case fatality rate of 9.5%, but appears more contagious. Both viruses attack the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts, via which they can potentially spread.

Link

I'll say again:

thjis virus does not like Light
This virus does not like hot weather
this virus does not like humidity.

Spring around the corner for most of the West. Now it may do more damage in the Far east, but likely will not be a major threat for West, and if it hangs around for the year, we have some time to take countermeasures/develop vaccines. Big media nothingburger. WASH YOUR HANDS, men and women, ESPECIALLY AFTER YOU GO TO BATHROOM AT ALL. (And call out politely others when you see them not doing so.)

(02-23-2020 02:17 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  I'll say again:

thjis virus does not like Light
This virus does not like hot weather
this virus does not like humidity.

Spring around the corner for most of the West. Now it may do more damage in the Far east, but likely will not be a major threat for West, and if it hangs around for the year, we have some time to take countermeasures/develop vaccines. Big media nothingburger. WASH YOUR HANDS, men and women, ESPECIALLY AFTER YOU GO TO BATHROOM AT ALL. (And call out politely others when you see them not doing so.)

Humidity? idk....It spread like wildfire on a cruise ship---so, while it may not "like" humidity---it seems to find a way to still persist as a problem. Honestly, we just need to hold it off from getting into the general US population for a year or so. I think we will have a working vaccine with solid stockpiles by then.

(02-17-2020 03:58 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Here is an interesting piece on Coronavirus mortality rates. It seems people are starting to get wise to the deaths-to-infections calculation not being valid while a outbreak is underway.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...e/#correct

I said that about 8 pages ago, but got little response.

(02-23-2020 04:45 PM)blah Wrote:  

(02-17-2020 03:58 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Here is an interesting piece on Coronavirus mortality rates. It seems people are starting to get wise to the deaths-to-infections calculation not being valid while a outbreak is underway.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...e/#correct

I said that about 8 pages ago, but got little response.

I must of missed it---but in my defense, with this thread---8 pages back is getting close to a month ago. One thing that is different from back then is we at least have a bit more to work with now in terms of data.

Stock Market is poised to take a beating here once the bell is rung in a few minutes. Investors are concerned about how the virus' rapid growth might effect the global economy.

Cases spiked in Italy, Iran, and South Korea over the weekend.

(02-24-2020 09:30 AM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  Stock Market is poised to take a beating here once the bell is rung in a few minutes. Investors are concerned about how the virus' rapid growth might effect the global economy.

Cases spiked in Italy, Iran, and South Korea over the weekend.

You needed to put your buy order in before the open. Will quickly recover by lunch time.

WHO says the world should "prepare" for a pandemic. To be clear---They arent calling it a pandemic yet. They are simply warning world governments to begin preparing in case it does happen. There are now somewhere around 2000 cases outside of China.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51611422

Notable outbreaks---



833 cases in S Korea
691 about the Diamond Princess ocean liner
223 cases in Italy (up 66 in the last 24 hrs)
146 cases in Japan
90 cases in Singapore
81 cases in Hong Kong
47 cases in Iran


No place else has more than 35 cases. Only 9 deaths have occurred so far outside of China.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Remember, China has a single-payer health care system. Let's see how well it works.

(02-24-2020 12:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  WHO says the world should "prepare" for a pandemic. To be clear---They arent calling it a pandemic yet. They are simply warning world governments to begin preparing in case it does happen. There are now somewhere around 2000 cases outside of China.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51611422

Notable outbreaks---



833 cases in S Korea
691 about the Diamond Princess ocean liner
223 cases in Italy (up 66 in the last 24 hrs)
146 cases in Japan
90 cases in Singapore
81 cases in Hong Kong
47 cases in Iran


No place else has more than 35 cases. Only 9 deaths have occurred so far outside of China.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The Italy outbreak is weird (and a bit troubling). Supposedly they have shut down two entire towns and are blocking people from entering or leaving them? That either sounds really bad, sounds like it's a bit more than necessary, or is bad information and just not true.

Are we all dead yet?

(02-24-2020 12:56 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 12:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  WHO says the world should "prepare" for a pandemic. To be clear---They arent calling it a pandemic yet. They are simply warning world governments to begin preparing in case it does happen. There are now somewhere around 2000 cases outside of China.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51611422

Notable outbreaks---



833 cases in S Korea
691 about the Diamond Princess ocean liner
223 cases in Italy (up 66 in the last 24 hrs)
146 cases in Japan
90 cases in Singapore
81 cases in Hong Kong
47 cases in Iran


No place else has more than 35 cases. Only 9 deaths have occurred so far outside of China.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The Italy outbreak is weird (and a bit troubling). Supposedly they have shut down two entire towns and are blocking people from entering or leaving them? That either sounds really bad, sounds like it's a bit more than necessary, or is bad information and just not true.

The way they measure how contatgious things are is on a scale where anything above 1.0 means the virus is spreading. The typical flu has a rating of 1.28. The coronovirus is somewhere between 2 and 3 on that same scale. Its apparently extremely contagious. I suspect some of that is probably due to infected people apparently being very contagious even though they have yet to show any symptoms. So---you cant use things like checking plane passengers for a fever to screen the sick from the healthy. Shutting entire towns down is probably about the only way to control it. I'd have shut down plane travel from China long ago.

(02-24-2020 01:02 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  Are we all dead yet?

lol....You just need to bob and weave, carefully avoiding the virus floating in the air. The world will soon belong to the quick and sharp eyed.

(02-24-2020 09:35 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 09:30 AM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  Stock Market is poised to take a beating here once the bell is rung in a few minutes. Investors are concerned about how the virus' rapid growth might effect the global economy.

Cases spiked in Italy, Iran, and South Korea over the weekend.

You needed to put your buy order in before the open. Will quickly recover by lunch time.

-1,025 @ 1:26 PM (ET)

(02-24-2020 01:27 PM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 09:35 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 09:30 AM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  Stock Market is poised to take a beating here once the bell is rung in a few minutes. Investors are concerned about how the virus' rapid growth might effect the global economy.

Cases spiked in Italy, Iran, and South Korea over the weekend.

You needed to put your buy order in before the open. Will quickly recover by lunch time.

-1,025 @ 1:26 PM (ET)

It's just an excuse to take profits in a 3% correction on an overbought market. If it fell another 7% it would just be a correction.

(02-24-2020 12:56 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(02-24-2020 12:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  WHO says the world should "prepare" for a pandemic. To be clear---They arent calling it a pandemic yet. They are simply warning world governments to begin preparing in case it does happen. There are now somewhere around 2000 cases outside of China.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51611422

Notable outbreaks---



833 cases in S Korea
691 about the Diamond Princess ocean liner
223 cases in Italy (up 66 in the last 24 hrs)
146 cases in Japan
90 cases in Singapore
81 cases in Hong Kong
47 cases in Iran


No place else has more than 35 cases. Only 9 deaths have occurred so far outside of China.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The Italy outbreak is weird (and a bit troubling). Supposedly they have shut down two entire towns and are blocking people from entering or leaving them? That either sounds really bad, sounds like it's a bit more than necessary, or is bad information and just not true.

Probably more of the bold but I guess it's better to be safe than sorry.

(02-22-2020 08:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Quick Update at 7pm 02/22/20---

Now at 78,675 total infections
53,049 are still active of which 41,496 are "mild" and 11,533 are "serious or critical".

23,166 have recovered

2,460 have died from the infection.

Looks like the floor mortality rate (deaths divided by current total infections) is 3%

The likely ceiling for the mortality rate (deaths divided by current total recoveries) is 10.6%.

I think its reasonable to assume the actual final mortality rate for the coronovirus will lie somewhere above 3% and below 11%. As we get more cases closed---these indicators of the mortality ceiling and the mortality floor are moving closer together.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

If we trust the Chinese Gov's reporting and not the reports from multiple Chinese people who have said that people are dropping in the streets and that the Crematoriums are running 24/7. The Gov is only reporting people who have died in the hospital, not those that died after being sent home.

There's no way to know what the real number is. This is the problem with the gov lying and not giving us real numbers.

It's totally possible that if we had actual numbers we'd be around the same % rate. If both Infection rates and Death rates are under reported... the percentages could work out to the be about the same. However, the Death rate may be much lower, if the death count is accurate but the infection rate is under reported. Or the Death rate may be much higher, if the death count is under reported but the infection rate is accurate.

(02-24-2020 01:02 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  Are we all dead yet?

im guessing about 1000 people from Korea and Italy thought the same thing yesterday... now they're not so snarky.

https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/post/s...n#stream/0

Quote:Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz says the federal response to the coronavirus outbreak has fallen far short and he is working with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Japan embassy to see if that country can provide coronavirus test kits to Hawaii.
In an interview last week with HPR, Schatz said new kits will likely not be ready until mid-March, leading his office to explore the possibility of obtaining several kits from the Japanese government.

(02-25-2020 10:16 AM)q5sys Wrote:  https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/post/s...n#stream/0

Quote:Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz says the federal response to the coronavirus outbreak has fallen far short and he is working with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Japan embassy to see if that country can provide coronavirus test kits to Hawaii.
In an interview last week with HPR, Schatz said new kits will likely not be ready until mid-March, leading his office to explore the possibility of obtaining several kits from the Japanese government.

You mean the govt ISN"T doing a good job of providing the necessary medical testing kits, i.e. "healthcare"???

Better not tell his fellow democrats.