Quote:China's bid to contain a deadly new virus by placing cities of millions under quarantine is an unprecedented undertaking but it is unlikely to stop the disease spreading, experts warn.

The contagious virus has already reached elsewhere in China and abroad, and even an authoritarian government has only a small timeframe in which trapped residents will submit to such a lockdown, they say.

"I think we have passed the golden period of control and prevention," said Guan Yi, an expert on viruses at Hong Kong University.

China began its campaign on Thursday, cutting off all transport links out of Wuhan, a city of 11 million people where the coronavirus linked to SARS emerged late last year.

A cascading number of nearby cities has since been added to the travel blacklist, corralling more than 40 million people in a bid to stop those with the disease travelling and infecting others elsewhere.

However, with the death toll at 26 and infections being detected as far away as the United States, there are fears the exercise is too little too late.

Yi, who returned from Wuhan just before the lockdown, pointed out huge numbers of people would have already left ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which began Friday.

They could have been incubating the virus "on their way out of Wuhan", he said.

Symptoms could take several days to emerge -- effectively seeding a health time-bomb across the country and abroad.

- Escape plans -

Meanwhile, new gaps in the security web in Wuhan and its surroundings will likely emerge over coming days, even as China deploys its formidable security forces.

They are manning road blocks that have been set up, while train and plane services have been suspended.

"Especially people with money and connections, they're going to make a run for it... and they'll probably be successful," Zi Yang, a senior analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, told AFP.

University of Sydney associate professor Adam Kamradt-Scott, an expert in global health security, said only a "handful" of countries could conceivably pull off the mass quarantine.

He suggested the US was one of the few that may be able to mount a similar operation, using the National Guard, although it would face much stiffer opposition from a population accustomed to more civil liberties.

China's communist rulers draw on a deep well of public acquiesence -- partly due to control of the internet, no free press and a brutally efficient security apparatus.

"I can't imagine there would be too many countries that would be able to do something on this scale as quickly as China has done," Kamradt-Scott said.

Even so, Kamradt-Scott warned a lockdown that extends for a week or more would produce "growing levels of discontent and frustration".

(01-24-2020 12:29 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  What is the death rate relative to getting the virus?

(01-24-2020 12:29 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  What is the death rate relative to getting the virus?

(01-24-2020 12:34 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:29 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  What is the death rate relative to getting the virus?

it's high for boomers and those with pre-existing conditions....

I contracted full scale pneumonia 3 yrs. ago....you don't fk around with that guy....this is a bad arse version w/o a cure/vaccine....

people move around....it's pretty simple watching this multiply to know this could take out much more than a handful....

(01-24-2020 12:43 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:34 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:29 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  What is the death rate relative to getting the virus?

it's high for boomers and those with pre-existing conditions....

I contracted full scale pneumonia 3 yrs. ago....you don't fk around with that guy....this is a bad arse version w/o a cure/vaccine....

people move around....it's pretty simple watching this multiply to know this could take out much more than a handful....

Not Ebola like hopefully. With the Spanish Flu 100 years ago 500 Million infected 50 Million deaths something like that.

(01-24-2020 12:47 PM)VA49er Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:43 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:34 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:29 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  What is the death rate relative to getting the virus?

it's high for boomers and those with pre-existing conditions....

I contracted full scale pneumonia 3 yrs. ago....you don't fk around with that guy....this is a bad arse version w/o a cure/vaccine....

people move around....it's pretty simple watching this multiply to know this could take out much more than a handful....

Not Ebola like hopefully. With the Spanish Flu 100 years ago 500 Million infected 50 Million deaths something like that.

Not calling you out SuperFlyBCat, but people always cite the Spanish flu but then neglect to mention that if that occured today, with all the medical advances/protocals, etc I don't think nearly as many people would have died. It was 100 years ago. Still bad, but not 50 million deaths bad.

(01-24-2020 12:47 PM)VA49er Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:43 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:34 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:29 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  What is the death rate relative to getting the virus?

it's high for boomers and those with pre-existing conditions....

I contracted full scale pneumonia 3 yrs. ago....you don't fk around with that guy....this is a bad arse version w/o a cure/vaccine....

people move around....it's pretty simple watching this multiply to know this could take out much more than a handful....

Not Ebola like hopefully. With the Spanish Flu 100 years ago 500 Million infected 50 Million deaths something like that.

Not calling you out SuperFlyBCat, but people always cite the Spanish flu but then neglect to mention that if that occured today, with all the medical advances/protocals, etc I don't think nearly as many people would have died. It was 100 years ago. Still bad, but not 50 million deaths bad.

(01-24-2020 12:54 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:47 PM)VA49er Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:43 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:34 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(01-24-2020 12:29 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  What is the death rate relative to getting the virus?

it's high for boomers and those with pre-existing conditions....

I contracted full scale pneumonia 3 yrs. ago....you don't fk around with that guy....this is a bad arse version w/o a cure/vaccine....

people move around....it's pretty simple watching this multiply to know this could take out much more than a handful....

Not Ebola like hopefully. With the Spanish Flu 100 years ago 500 Million infected 50 Million deaths something like that.

Not calling you out SuperFlyBCat, but people always cite the Spanish flu but then neglect to mention that if that occured today, with all the medical advances/protocals, etc I don't think nearly as many people would have died. It was 100 years ago. Still bad, but not 50 million deaths bad.

I really don't know much about any of this.

(01-24-2020 12:58 PM)WKUYG Wrote:  As I said almost everytime there's a climate control thread that I post in...dont have to worry about that if man is the cause.

Mother Nature has always found a way to help with population control. Its never if, only when. With the development in science man has been able to hold off what use to kill 10-50 million in a world with 10x the population today.

No doubt the major killer will come from China, India or a 3rd world country. This is probably going to be the top project in most of the world labs that makes vaccines. Better get one in the next few weeks if it is that bad

(01-24-2020 01:00 PM)banker Wrote:  Instead of worrying about getting Iphones and cars, maybe the Chinese should take some basic courses in food sanitation. Seems like everyone of these things starts there. Try cutting back on the live food markets in huge population centers for a start.

Quote:A recent outbreak in China of a new strand of coronavirus may be linked to an objectively disgusting Chinese delicacy called bat soup, according to reports.

Video footage online shows an entire cooked, dead bat sitting in soup. Scientists believe that the virus, which has killed 17 and infected over 640 people, could have spread from snakes or bats. Is this bat soup the cause of the quickly-spreading virus?

(01-24-2020 01:14 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Spanish flu hit young way harder than any age group. Average age of those 50 million deaths was estimated to be 28. So many died in the US that it caused the American average life expectancy in 1918 to drop by 12 years.

Part of the reason it spread was you had thousands and thousands of young men living in barracks during wartime. It first appeared on wide scale in a US Army barracks in Kansas if I recall.

People were sometimes dying and going into organ failure within 24 hours. That is crazy virulent. A problem the world faced in dealing with it is physicians all thought it was a bacterial infection for a long, long time.

If something that virulent pops up without a vaccine again, with as much international and domestic travel that takes place, we’d have a mini case of Captain Trips on our hands.