(06-22-2019 08:03 PM)stever20 Wrote: (06-22-2019 04:41 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote: (06-22-2019 04:17 PM)stever20 Wrote: And other teams have good enough guys to keep close early and then the pen takes over
Dodgers pen is 7th in the NL in fWAR. Not exactly a dumpster fire. Their SP is #1 and their offense is #1 by a good margin. Not to mention their team defense is #1 by an enormous margin. But sure, that 7th ranked pen will bury them, while the Rockies 11th ranked offense, or the Braves 10th ranked starting pitching, or the Brewers 12th ranked starting pitching, or the Nats 14th ranked defense, will not hinder them at all.
Dodgers have by far the best record in the NL and have won the last two pennants. Let's get real and try to join reality.
Their rotation is very deep. But it's also extremely injury prone, as we've already started to see with Hill out. 1 poorly timed injury to especially Ryu or Buehler and the Dodgers are in trouble. You say they've got Stripling and or Urias. Great, except that takes them out of the bullpen...
And sorry, but the playoffs are a totally different animal than the regular season. Bullpens matter FAR more then they do in the regular season.
Also, the closer situation is a HUGE concern. You saw in 2016 with your Giants what can happen if you don't have that position solid.
Except that most all of the other contenders have bullpen issues equal to or worse than the Dodgers. I understand your sentiment that nothing is guaranteed, but as last season's early playoff series against the Dodgers showed me, the Braves are good, but the Dodgers are a few levels better. Sure, anything can happen, but the Dodgers are more than a few players away from having many serious doubts.
Then again, to your point, take tonight's Braves-Nyuts game, which the Braves won on the road 13-9 in a back and forth slugfest that might actually illustrate nyour point as well as Swoosh's: Wash went up early and got as many as 4 runs ahead by the third, and again 4 runs up in the fifth. Atlanta's starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz gave up 8 earned runs in 5 innings, but the Atlanta offense kept him in the game until the 5th, where the Braves' bullpen took over. Wash starter Anabel Sanchez went 6 innings, giving up 4 runs, then Wash bullpen proceeds to implode as T. Rosenthal goes zero innings and gives up 3 earned runs (bumping his season ERA to a mere 22.74), Rainey blows the tie giving up an earned run, and Ross blows it giving up 4 more earned runs in the 8th, as WashMe loses the game that they were ahead in several times 13-9. Braves pourous bullpen holds together slightly better, with miracle on 34th street Anthony Swarzek of all players continuing to look stellar in Atlanta, the rest of the Braves no-name BP pitchers holding serve from Folty's 8 run debacle of a start, with only supposed former stud pitcher AJ Minter surrendering 1 earned run on a wild pitch, no less. So, yeah, a good team that's ahead with their starter can still lose these type of games. But I wouldn't bet against the Dodgers until and unless someone actually finishes them off. And I'm not as sure this is the season for that to happen as you seem to be.
As to the Braves, they really neede this win tonight to establish they can beat Wash and on the road to boot. Tomorrow is mstill a pretty critical game for both teams. The downside is slightly less for Was, as they are up 3-1 so far in this season's series, so it's not too bad a deal for them if they lose. Braves will have to wonder if they do, however. Can they beat WasMe head-to-head consistently? It's not as good a scenario for them, as it gives Wash the hope they need to press on.
Philly still imploding again against the Marlins tonight. Just amazing to see them falling apart for the moment. Not that I'm complaining. Atlanta has double or more the bullpen issues the Dodgers have, and then some.