(04-09-2018 01:22 PM)stever20 Wrote: (04-09-2018 01:12 PM)Bogg Wrote: (04-08-2018 10:30 AM)stever20 Wrote: yeah, that's another thing. Right now, pre-TV deal for AAC, pre Hurley coming in and making an improvement for UConn basketball- is when things are at their best chance for UConn to move to the Big East. If the AAC gets 6-8 million and makes more than the Big East, and Hurley turns around the basketball quickly- the need to move changes rapidly. I think there's folks at UConn that think quite frankly it's almost now or never for UConn to go back to the Big East.
I don't agree, so long as the Big East remains a highest-level basketball conference and retains the tournament in NYC you'll hear noise. The argument will just shift to the AAC not being good enough (which you actually already hear some of).
If the money is better in the AAC, and the UConn program is turned around and making noise nationally, that noise will be a lot more muted.
Also, there's a chance with the AAC deal that it goes up a 2nd time when the Big East goes up the next time. So there could be a 2nd bump to keep it ahead of the Big East(if the Big East is able to get a bump up, which isn't a guarantee at all given Fox will be a lot more established in 7 years).
Well, if the money is better in the AAC, then it's an easy decision for UConn to stay there. We wouldn't be having this discussion here.
The whole point is that the money is NOT better in the AAC. That's why we're having this discussion in the first place. The Big East is ahead of the AAC on TV money and (this can't be emphasized enough) that's JUST for basketball.
For starters, I don't buy the assumption that the AAC will get significantly more TV money in the manner that they're fans are hoping. I keep hearing $6 million or $7 million per year from AAC fans, which would translate into approximately a
300% increase compared to what they're getting today. If you can show me other sports properties that can command a 300% increase in this environment, then let me know. Even the mighty Big Ten received about a 125% increase.. and that was based on a vastly outdated 10-year agreement that was signed in the middle of the BCS era and prior to the conference realignment of 2010-2013. So, there's healthy skepticism that the money will be better in the AAC down the road (and remember, for a true apples-to-apples comparison, the AAC actually needs to make significantly more than the Big East because the AAC is covering both football and basketball as opposed to basketball alone).
It comes down to this: does UConn choose more conference money overall (which is the Big East and that's only considering basketball money) with the high risk of independence for football or stay in the AAC for less conference money overall with a lot less risk for football.
THAT is the debate. We can pull out hypotheticals about how Hurley will do or how much the AAC contract might be in a few years until we're blue in the face to fit whatever narrative we want to apply... but what I just described is the actual debate NOW. In that analysis, the Big East is better for basketball and conference TV money with more football risk (and that would be true no matter how well Hurley performs on-the-court) and the AAC is worse for conference TV money with less football risk.
IMHO, as long as UConn has *realistic* P5 dreams, it can't really leave the AAC. How the men's basketball program performs is honestly irrelevant in that analysis. My guess is that UConn still isn't going to give up on that P5 dream as of yet.
However, if UConn *doesn't* have P5 dreams any longer at a certain point, then it also honestly doesn't matter how the men's basketball program performs: the Big East is simply better for them in terms of rivalries, geography and long-term interest. That would apply whether Hurley goes 0-30 or 30-0 with a national title every year for the next 5 years. Unless you're in a P5 league (and in a lot of cases, even if you are already in a P5 league), winning at the highest level actually spurs you to look for a better conference home even more because you have more leverage in the realignment marketplace.
I just don't buy for a second that how Hurley performs has anything to do with whether UConn moves to the Big East. The value of the next AAC TV deal certainly matters and whether UConn believes its football program can get them to a P5 conference in the nearish future (e.g. the next decade) matters even more. The on-the-court record for men's basketball is just temporary and even if UConn has a lot of success with Hurley, that still doesn't mean that the athletic department is happier playing Cincinnati, Temple and Houston as "rivals" (and note that I'm listing the upper tier AAC programs as opposed to using the classic realignment message board sandbagging technique of listing the worst programs in a league) compared to Villanova, Georgetown and St. John's. Those basketball issues that favor the Big East have to be weighed with whether UConn believes its football program can get them to the P5 or not (which is more in favor of staying in the AAC).