(02-12-2018 05:53 PM)FearTheLion Wrote: Hard for me to believe with a 3 loss season (including the tournament loss) that ODU wouldn't be more than just under consideration. That feels like MEAC respect level to me. I'd be stunned if it wasn't a LOCK with only 2 losses going into the CUSA tournament.
At any rate, I'll just give up hope for the at large based on the analysis and root hard for the title. Personally, I think this team can play well enough to claim it anyway.
If you turn the W&M and VCU losses to wins and have ODU win out the regular season, their RPI is 49. Beat La Tech and WKU, lose to Middle in the CUSA tourney and their RPI is 43. Illinois State (33) and UT Arlington (45) missed the NCAA last season, so 43 is still pretty shaky ground, especially since they would still be lacking top-75 wins outside two presumed victories against WKU. The only thing that would work in their benefit is the whole "how can you keep a team with four losses (after the CUSA final) from dancing?" argument. But again, that gets counterbalanced by the lack of good wins.
That's why I said their NCAA at-large hopes, whatever they might have been, died with the Temple loss. Had they beaten Temple, then Auburn, then Clemson, they'd be in fantastic shape with three losses even if they came to Rice, Charlotte and UMES. But that was their one shot, and it clanked off the front iron.
EDIT TO ADD: Upon further review, I see now that you're postulating a three-loss ODU even
after the CUSA final. In that case, turn the WKU loss to a win and keep the other parameters the same, and their RPI blossoms to 28 (though what effect beating WKU three times has on their RPI is anyone's guess). That would be at-large worthy but not a mortal lock: Four teams with top-30 RPIs have been snubbed since 2006, the most recent being Colorado State (29) in 2015, so nothing's for certain, especially if the WKU wins are the only good ones on ODU's resume.
(Technically, if ODU beat WKU and Middle Tennessee at home and lost to WKU on the road to go with the Temple and CUSA final defeats, ODU's RPI would be 22 and they'd be solidly in, but really, what's the point in detailing a scenario in which ODU beats Middle Tennessee?)