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ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
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ODU AGGIE Offline
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Post: #31
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 11:28 AM)ODU2011 Wrote:  Unlike the rest of you, I’m not counting out a tourney appearance.

Count me in!
02-12-2018 12:49 PM
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cmett003 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 12:45 PM)monarx Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 11:30 AM)757ODU Wrote:  If we win out and lose in the conference championship, a half court shot will be the only thing keeping us from a NCAA Tournament appearance.

That, and a ton of missed free throws.

We were 4-14 from the line in that game. FT shooting has gotten better since
02-12-2018 12:57 PM
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ODU True Blue Offline
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Post: #33
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
I thought our record was going to be 25-5 regular season before we played a game. Still within reach as is 26-4.

Just rechecked that thread. I said 22-8 going into the CUSA tourney. I think we should definitely break that.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 01:11 PM by ODU True Blue.)
02-12-2018 12:59 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #34
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 12:59 PM)ODU True Blue Wrote:  I thought our record was going to be 25-5 regular season before we played a game. Still within reach as is 26-4.

Just rechecked that thread. I said 22-8 going into the CUSA tourney. I think we should definitely break that.

ODU is 19-5 now so 26-4 is definitely out of reach. Thinking one more loss (either WKU or Marshall) so 24-6 is my guess.
02-12-2018 01:47 PM
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FearTheLion Offline
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Post: #35
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 11:28 AM)ODU2011 Wrote:  Unlike the rest of you, I’m not counting out a tourney appearance.
02-12-2018 01:51 PM
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FearTheLion Offline
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Post: #36
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
How does our current resume statistically compare to VCU when they received that surprise invitation after being handled by us 2 out of 3 matchups?
02-12-2018 01:53 PM
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Punk Offline
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Post: #37
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 01:53 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  How does our current resume statistically compare to VCU when they received that surprise invitation after being handled by us 2 out of 3 matchups?

Not even close to their resume that year. We have 0 wins in the top 100, let alone top 50.

Here is something I found before the CAA tourney that year..

Resume
RPI Rank: 51

Record: 23-11

Conference Record: 12-6

Strength Of Schedule: 86

Record Against RPI Top 50: 3-5

Quality Wins (against RPI Top 50): UCLA, Old Dominion, George Mason

Bad Losses (against RPI 100+): South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern

In Or Out: Even though they have a pretty good RPI, I don't think that VCU makes the tournament. The win against UCLA is pretty nice (although not spectacular), but the quality wins against their conference opponents almost get nullified because they also lost to each of those teams (including Old Dominion twice).

They ended George Mason's long winning streak in the conference tournament, and that certainly looks good. But I think they needed to win the CAA title to get in. They played above average all season long, but I don't think that they made enough of an impact on the minds of the voters to get in.
02-12-2018 01:57 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #38
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 01:53 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  How does our current resume statistically compare to VCU when they received that surprise invitation after being handled by us 2 out of 3 matchups?

Not great. VCU's Selection Sunday RPI was 49, and they owned top-40 RPI wins against ODU, George Mason, Wichita State and UCLA. Plus top-40 losses to ODU (2), Mason, UAB and Richmond, with Tennessee at 41. They had nine top-100 wins, whereas ODU has zero right now.

So not well at all.
02-12-2018 02:10 PM
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monarx Offline
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Post: #39
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 01:57 PM)Punk Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 01:53 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  How does our current resume statistically compare to VCU when they received that surprise invitation after being handled by us 2 out of 3 matchups?

Not even close to their resume that year. We have 0 wins in the top 100, let alone top 50.

Here is something I found before the CAA tourney that year..

Resume
RPI Rank: 51

Record: 23-11

Conference Record: 12-6

Strength Of Schedule: 86

Record Against RPI Top 50: 3-5

Quality Wins (against RPI Top 50): UCLA, Old Dominion, George Mason

Bad Losses (against RPI 100+): South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern

In Or Out: Even though they have a pretty good RPI, I don't think that VCU makes the tournament. The win against UCLA is pretty nice (although not spectacular), but the quality wins against their conference opponents almost get nullified because they also lost to each of those teams (including Old Dominion twice).

They ended George Mason's long winning streak in the conference tournament, and that certainly looks good. But I think they needed to win the CAA title to get in. They played above average all season long, but I don't think that they made enough of an impact on the minds of the voters to get in.

And its an easy argument that because they got it, we are in CUSA now. If VCU doesn't go that year, they don't get their miracle run. W/O that they don't get the A10 invite. If they don't leave the CAA, GMU and ODU don't leave either.
02-12-2018 02:12 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #40
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 02:12 PM)monarx Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 01:57 PM)Punk Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 01:53 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  How does our current resume statistically compare to VCU when they received that surprise invitation after being handled by us 2 out of 3 matchups?

Not even close to their resume that year. We have 0 wins in the top 100, let alone top 50.

Here is something I found before the CAA tourney that year..

Resume
RPI Rank: 51

Record: 23-11

Conference Record: 12-6

Strength Of Schedule: 86

Record Against RPI Top 50: 3-5

Quality Wins (against RPI Top 50): UCLA, Old Dominion, George Mason

Bad Losses (against RPI 100+): South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern

In Or Out: Even though they have a pretty good RPI, I don't think that VCU makes the tournament. The win against UCLA is pretty nice (although not spectacular), but the quality wins against their conference opponents almost get nullified because they also lost to each of those teams (including Old Dominion twice).

They ended George Mason's long winning streak in the conference tournament, and that certainly looks good. But I think they needed to win the CAA title to get in. They played above average all season long, but I don't think that they made enough of an impact on the minds of the voters to get in.

And its an easy argument that because they got it, we are in CUSA now. If VCU doesn't go that year, they don't get their miracle run. W/O that they don't get the A10 invite. If they don't leave the CAA, GMU and ODU don't leave either.

I'm not sure it's that cut and dried. The A-10 needed schools once Temple and Charlotte announced their departures, and again after the Big East poached Butler and Xavier. There weren't that many—if any—sexy programs out there that got passed over for VCU/GMU/Davidson.

It's hard to know what would have happened to VCU basketball if you butterfly their NCAA run into an NIT invitation, but they still had Shaka as coach and recruiter, and they were one choke-job away against Indiana from a return trip to the Sweet 16 the next season, so I think they would have still been fine. Probably not a seven-year NCAA streak, but they don't turn into Hofstra or Drexel either.

Put another way: George Mason did very little after breaking into the Top 25 and winning an NCAA game in 2011, and they did it in an older arena with less fan support than VCU, but they still got an A-10 invite.

The CAA that we knew and loved in the early 2010s was destined to be disrupted. Eventually ODU would have gotten the FBS bug, and if they didn't, perhaps JMU takes their CUSA invite. Short of replacing a departing Shaka with Mack McCarthy again, I don't think anything you do to change VCU's 2011 makes a difference.
02-12-2018 02:21 PM
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