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ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
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EverRespect Offline
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Post: #11
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-11-2018 10:09 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(02-02-2018 02:47 PM)ODU_NYG Wrote:  I predict that we'll finish with a top-4 and a bye in the CUSA tourney. Then I predict we'll lose either our first or 2nd game. Then we'll play in the CBI or CIT. Even if we get lucky and one of the top seeds gets upset early (like UAB did a couple of years ago) I don't think we have a team that can compete and win 3 games in 3 days regardless of opponents.

The NIT is still a definite possibility so long as ODU doesn't lose any bad games. Last season only three postseason-eligible teams with double-digit RPIs didn't make at least the NIT — UNC Asheville (73, CIT), San Francisco (94, CBI) and Furman (96, CIT). Winning all but the WKU game in the regular season and a semifinal exit in the CUSA tournament puts ODU at a 64 RPI, which should be pretty solid for an NIT bid, presuming a bunch of low-major regular-season champs don't lose in their conference tournaments and take NIT spots.
NIT is the consolation prize

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02-11-2018 10:48 PM
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monarx Offline
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Post: #12
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
I think if we win the rest of the reg season except for WKU, we should be in the NIT. Otherwise, I’d just as soon stay home than a C tournament
02-11-2018 10:53 PM
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Cyniclone Online
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Post: #13
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-11-2018 10:48 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 10:09 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(02-02-2018 02:47 PM)ODU_NYG Wrote:  I predict that we'll finish with a top-4 and a bye in the CUSA tourney. Then I predict we'll lose either our first or 2nd game. Then we'll play in the CBI or CIT. Even if we get lucky and one of the top seeds gets upset early (like UAB did a couple of years ago) I don't think we have a team that can compete and win 3 games in 3 days regardless of opponents.

The NIT is still a definite possibility so long as ODU doesn't lose any bad games. Last season only three postseason-eligible teams with double-digit RPIs didn't make at least the NIT — UNC Asheville (73, CIT), San Francisco (94, CBI) and Furman (96, CIT). Winning all but the WKU game in the regular season and a semifinal exit in the CUSA tournament puts ODU at a 64 RPI, which should be pretty solid for an NIT bid, presuming a bunch of low-major regular-season champs don't lose in their conference tournaments and take NIT spots.
NIT is the consolation prize

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It's not the dream destination, but it certainly beats the Vegas 16 and Norfolk 0 of the previous two seasons.
02-11-2018 10:56 PM
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odu09 Online
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Post: #14
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
NIT is still a failure to me. I don't care that it's the 2nd best. We have been out of the NCAAs for too long to be okay with an NIT bid.
02-12-2018 06:55 AM
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Mr.BigBlue Offline
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Post: #15
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
Unless we finish #2 in regular season and finish #2 in the CUSA tournament we will not get an NIT Bid. That is CUSA's history with NIT. very rarely does the NIT award CUSA with 2 or more bids. Plus our SOS will be woefully lacking following this string of +150 RPI games. Last year everyone was saying the same thing and my analysis showed differently. Our issue is the NIT is bound to take #2 conference regular season finishers and #1 if they don't go to the NCAA's. So for us a #2 finish in mandatory which will be hard with a loss to WKU already and we have to play them at home. Right now we have a 34% chance of winning that game.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 07:15 AM by Mr.BigBlue.)
02-12-2018 07:10 AM
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FearTheLion Offline
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Post: #16
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
We can win it. Just gotta close better than the first time and we're on track to do just that.
02-12-2018 09:18 AM
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Chillie Willie Offline
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Post: #17
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 07:10 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  Unless we finish #2 in regular season and finish #2 in the CUSA tournament we will not get an NIT Bid. That is CUSA's history with NIT. very rarely does the NIT award CUSA with 2 or more bids. Plus our SOS will be woefully lacking following this string of +150 RPI games. Last year everyone was saying the same thing and my analysis showed differently. Our issue is the NIT is bound to take #2 conference regular season finishers and #1 if they don't go to the NCAA's. So for us a #2 finish in mandatory which will be hard with a loss to WKU already and we have to play them at home. Right now we have a 34% chance of winning that game.
So your saying we got a chance!

I don't have any data to back it up, but from my memory I fear what you are saying about NIT bids is true. But we all still have to play the games and WKU could still falter. Hopefully against us.
02-12-2018 09:23 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #18
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 07:10 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  Unless we finish #2 in regular season and finish #2 in the CUSA tournament we will not get an NIT Bid. That is CUSA's history with NIT. very rarely does the NIT award CUSA with 2 or more bids. Plus our SOS will be woefully lacking following this string of +150 RPI games. Last year everyone was saying the same thing and my analysis showed differently. Our issue is the NIT is bound to take #2 conference regular season finishers and #1 if they don't go to the NCAA's. So for us a #2 finish in mandatory which will be hard with a loss to WKU already and we have to play them at home. Right now we have a 34% chance of winning that game.

You keep saying this....who said last year we would be in the NIT? We had an RPI that was barely 150.

Is your reasoning based on CUSA not having a history of teams below second place getting NIT bids? If so, how often has the NIT had 3 top 75 teams? (I haven't looked, but don't expect that it would have happened much)

The NIT has the following automatic bids:
Regular Season Champs that lose in Tourney
First 4 teams out of NCAA Tourney

There are several teams that got into the NIT last year with lesser resumes than we have. 4 of them got at large bids from leser conferences.

In terms of our RPI this year, we still have Marshall (107) and Western Kentucky (58) out of the 6 remaining regular season games and are likley to have another game against a high RPI team in the tourney. Barring a collapse, I'm not sure how the RPI will drop dramatically.

Its too early to make an NIT prediction, we are clearly a bubble type team, but we would solidly be in at the moment assuming several lesser conferences don't have regular season winners that lose in tourney.
02-12-2018 09:28 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #19
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-11-2018 10:53 PM)monarx Wrote:  I think if we win the rest of the reg season except for WKU, we should be in the NIT. Otherwise, I’d just as soon stay home than a C tournament

If we win all games except WKY and then win 1 or 2 games in the tourney, we are probably in the NIT.
02-12-2018 09:29 AM
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monarx Offline
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Post: #20
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 09:29 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 10:53 PM)monarx Wrote:  I think if we win the rest of the reg season except for WKU, we should be in the NIT. Otherwise, I’d just as soon stay home than a C tournament

If we win all games except WKY and then win 1 or 2 games in the tourney, we are probably in the NIT.

I agree. in 2017 the last non-P5 team to get an at-large bid to the NIT was Richmond with an RPI of 80. I think if we finish third in CUSA, but end with 7 losses (one more reg season, and one more in the tournament) and manage to have an RPI over 85 we have a decent chance. Our best bet for the NIT might be to have WKU win CUSA, MT gets an at-large to the NCAAs and ODU gets in the NIT. Of course, none of this will matter if we win the CUSA tournament.
02-12-2018 09:51 AM
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