(11-13-2017 02:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: (11-13-2017 01:37 PM)Bigdog731 Wrote: I’m of the opinion the BIG 12 will cease to exist close to or when the existing contract expires which is not really that far out. No way will 2/3/4 or whatever current teams left behind be able to raid the AAC and MWC and keep the BIG 12 alive, just not going to happen. The BIG 12 is a victim of geography or lack thereof in terms of big population states and Texas just isn’t big enough to carry this conference on its back long term when it comes to being part of the power country club. Keep in mind this conference has only two marquee programs, Texas and Oklahoma…Both are going to want out close to or when the current deal runs out and when that happens the exodus begins. Some will be left behind..who knows? perhaps programs like Baylor , Iowa St, Kansas St and TCU won’t make it. TCU namely because the C stands for Christian (haha) would the PAC12 or Big10 take a TCU? I think not but who knows…the SEC might but that could be a long shot. TCU is just a few years removed from the MWC, remember that. Baylor is toxic and won’t be on anyone’s radar…I suppose Iowa ST and Kansas State could be long shots to make the cut but in my opinion not.
I think what may happen is the AAC just stands pat and waits for the BIG 12 to dissolve and takes maybe two, TCU and Kansas St. The MWC gets Iowa St and Baylor. Who knows? I also think when the AAC does a new deal the terms coincide or be really close to (not more than a year or two longer) when the BIG 12 ultimately dissolves. Not saying some super AAC TEEVEE deal long terms either. I actually think the AAC is well positioned long term because a handful of teams might get screwed big time if the BIG 12 actually does dissolve at some point.
I believed it then and I have seen nothing to change my mind since all this started a few years ago. When the Big 12 lost Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M and Missouri that was more or less the writing on the wall...the replacement of TCU and WVU not now and never will be able to come close to making up for those losses. Loosing Texas A&M and Nebraska was really telling in terms of the beginning of the end of this conference. It just taken longer and made for a much slower death. Heck, if a few tweaks here and there would have happened a few short years ago this conference would already be dead. This conference was literally down to 8 teams before the mad scramble to add TCU/WVU. Just think about that for a second. The BIG 12 gets raided by the PAC12/BIG10/SEC and they have to go the dead conference walking BIG EAST and MWC just to find two replacements.
The Prestige the BIG12 has lost is absolutely real and cannot be overstated. As far as all the Power 5 stuff make no mistake the BIG 12 is at the bottom of the pecking order now and will forever be if they were to hang around, which I don’t think will happen. Is Texas and Oklahoma ok with this for the next 50 years????? I think not and they have lots of options and long term more lucrative ones at that.
I don’t know who or how many get left behind but I don’t think all the current members make the cut. I think it could be as few as 2 or as many as 4.
You know, when the GOR expires, there will still be B12 exit fees---they just wont be as high. There will also be a crap load of left behind NCAA credits. Sure, its not going to be a P5 conference any longer--but with a core of Iowa St, Baylor, TCU, and Kansas St (might find W Virginia is stuck as well). Those 4 or 5 schools are a pretty darn attractive match for the AAC West schools. UConn, Cinci, and UCF would be good adds from AAC East. BYU is still out there and Colorado St, N Mexico, and Boise relatively nearby--plenty of material to build around that remaining Big12 core--and some left behind NCAA/exit fee money to negotiate with.
1) Baylor
2) TCU
3) Kansas St
4) Iowa St
5) W Virginia (maybe gets left if things dont fall right)
5/6) Houston
6/7) SMU
7/8) Memphis
8/9) Cinci
9/10) Navy
10/11) BYU
11/12) Either one or two of UConn, Boise, AF, New Mexico, Colorado St, UCF, ECU, Temple, USF, Tulsa, or Tulane. Plus, there is room for Wichita St as a basketball only to offset the Navy football only membership. If W Virginia is still in the conference the model might go more east coast with the last two picks. If W Virginia is gone, the model likely goes west. The Florida schools are great adds---but they are kinda going to be outliers. You could make it a bit better by adding both.
The point is--there is plenty of material from which to build a very attractive "tweener" conference if the Big12 implodes and some are left behind. I dont think they would have trouble attracting AAC schools (especially AAC west schools).
I think you'd still have to consider it a Power Conference. It won't have the biggest name but that's still a hell of a Conference.
Baylor- Pending what Rhule does can be a top 25 program, they have shown it recently.
Memphis- Has been solid and ranked quite a bit the last few years.
Houston- The right coach and Houston has the resources to compete with literally anyone.
West Virginia- Was the class of the Big East imo. They are a solid top 25-35 program almost always.
SMU- Appears to be headed in the right direction. Whoever they hire after Morris will be key.
Iowa State would compete well if they are able to maintain what they have done this season.
Navy- A very good traditionally 7-9 win team. Generally very tough with that triple option.
BYU- Minus a couple of seasons here and there they are about as solid a program as you'll find. Very comparable to the top of the AAC.
Cincy- With the right guy they were able to win a BSC Conference multiple times and play in some big time bowls.
Kansas State- Another solid 6-9 win program that would excel in this new setup.
TCU- After a couple of years in the Big 12 they started dominating it. Took a season to regroup and are competing again. Definitely a top 20 program right now.
UCF or USF would be great for that conference. Having a solid Florida school will be great for recruiting but any given year either of those programs can compete. UCF was 0-12 2 years ago and ow they are 9-0. They have the ability to bounce back quick and plenty of resources.
I think as far as a playoff was concerned this conference would have to be given a chance if it were moved to 8, they would get an Auto bid.