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Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
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Bigdog731 Offline
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Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I’m of the opinion the BIG 12 will cease to exist close to or when the existing contract expires which is not really that far out. No way will 2/3/4 or whatever current teams left behind be able to raid the AAC and MWC and keep the BIG 12 alive, just not going to happen. The BIG 12 is a victim of geography or lack thereof in terms of big population states and Texas just isn’t big enough to carry this conference on its back long term when it comes to being part of the power country club. Keep in mind this conference has only two marquee programs, Texas and Oklahoma…Both are going to want out close to or when the current deal runs out and when that happens the exodus begins. Some will be left behind..who knows? perhaps programs like Baylor , Iowa St, Kansas St and TCU won’t make it. TCU namely because the C stands for Christian (haha) would the PAC12 or Big10 take a TCU? I think not but who knows…the SEC might but that could be a long shot. TCU is just a few years removed from the MWC, remember that. Baylor is toxic and won’t be on anyone’s radar…I suppose Iowa ST and Kansas State could be long shots to make the cut but in my opinion not.

I think what may happen is the AAC just stands pat and waits for the BIG 12 to dissolve and takes maybe two, TCU and Kansas St. The MWC gets Iowa St and Baylor. Who knows? I also think when the AAC does a new deal the terms coincide or be really close to (not more than a year or two longer) when the BIG 12 ultimately dissolves. Not saying some super AAC TEEVEE deal long terms either. I actually think the AAC is well positioned long term because a handful of teams might get screwed big time if the BIG 12 actually does dissolve at some point.

I believed it then and I have seen nothing to change my mind since all this started a few years ago. When the Big 12 lost Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M and Missouri that was more or less the writing on the wall...the replacement of TCU and WVU not now and never will be able to come close to making up for those losses. Loosing Texas A&M and Nebraska was really telling in terms of the beginning of the end of this conference. It just taken longer and made for a much slower death. Heck, if a few tweaks here and there would have happened a few short years ago this conference would already be dead. This conference was literally down to 8 teams before the mad scramble to add TCU/WVU. Just think about that for a second. The BIG 12 gets raided by the PAC12/BIG10/SEC and they have to go the dead conference walking BIG EAST and MWC just to find two replacements.

The Prestige the BIG12 has lost is absolutely real and cannot be overstated. As far as all the Power 5 stuff make no mistake the BIG 12 is at the bottom of the pecking order now and will forever be if they were to hang around, which I don’t think will happen. Is Texas and Oklahoma ok with this for the next 50 years????? I think not and they have lots of options and long term more lucrative ones at that.

I don’t know who or how many get left behind but I don’t think all the current members make the cut. I think it could be as few as 2 or as many as 4.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2017 01:46 PM by Bigdog731.)
11-13-2017 01:37 PM
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UTEPDallas Offline
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
It is what Texas wants. It starts and ends there. Would they rather run a P5 league or be a "team player" in another power league? If you're Oklahoma, would you rather be a playoff contender or have the same fate as the defectors? If you're the rest not named Kansas, would you rather be in a P5 league or have the sane fate of UConn, Cincinnati and South Florida?
11-13-2017 01:51 PM
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MAcFroggy Offline
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 01:37 PM)Bigdog731 Wrote:  I’m of the opinion the BIG 12 will cease to exist close to or when the existing contract expires which is not really that far out. No way will 2/3/4 or whatever current teams left behind be able to raid the AAC and MWC and keep the BIG 12 alive, just not going to happen. The BIG 12 is a victim of geography or lack thereof in terms of big population states and Texas just isn’t big enough to carry this conference on its back long term when it comes to being part of the power country club. Keep in mind this conference has only two marquee programs, Texas and Oklahoma…Both are going to want out close to or when the current deal runs out and when that happens the exodus begins. Some will be left behind..who knows? perhaps programs like Baylor , Iowa St, Kansas St and TCU won’t make it. TCU namely because the C stands for Christian (haha) would the PAC12 or Big10 take a TCU? I think not but who knows…the SEC might but that could be a long shot. TCU is just a few years removed from the MWC, remember that. Baylor is toxic and won’t be on anyone’s radar…I suppose Iowa ST and Kansas State could be long shots to make the cut but in my opinion not.
...

The Prestige the BIG12 has lost is absolutely real and cannot be overstated. As far as all the Power 5 stuff make no mistake the BIG 12 is at the bottom of the pecking order now and will forever be if they were to hang around, which I don’t think will happen. Is Texas and Oklahoma ok with this for the next 50 years????? I think not and they have lots of options and long term more lucrative ones at that.

I don’t know who or how many get left behind but I don’t think all the current members make the cut. I think it could be as few as 2 or as many as 4.

It is definitely a real possibility, but it all comes down to if the Big 10 or the SEC want to expand, The big 12 currently makes more money per school than the Pac 12 or the ACC. Not sure very many ADs would be willing to move to a conference to make less money. If the SEC and/or Big 10 are content with their current membership then I do not think very much changes.

The other thing to note is that we have no idea what program strengths will look like in the next 5-7 years. If OU wins a national championship this year, or the Big 12 has CFP participation in each of the next 5 years then there will be no real reason to leave.
11-13-2017 02:01 PM
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orangefan Offline
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
My take is that of the other P5, only the Pac 12 has a strong interest in adding Big 12 schools. Assuming the Pac 12 invited 4, the remaining members of the Big 12 would be far better off bringing in new members from the AAC, MWC and BYU than leaving to join the AAC. Of course, it all comes down to what Texas wants to do, as any of the other P5 conferences would probably try to accommodate the Longhorns.
11-13-2017 02:10 PM
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Bigdog731 Offline
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
To me I see no programs that will ever be like Texas and Oklahoma in the Big 12, regardless of how much success in the next few years.

I'm of the opinion Oklahoma will separate from Texas if that's what it takes to get out of the current Big 12. At that point this conference cannot survive and Texas will move as well. Neither will ever do another GOR to keep the conference afloat beyond what they are now locked into. I guess what I'm kind getting at is both these programs could leave as we speak, it won't be a matter of does whomever want to expand. Both have more than one option for sure to get off the sinking ship. If it comes to that it's over and others will expand as well. I just can't imagine with the recent additions to the Power 5 conferences they would walk away from expansion of Texas or Oklahoma, especially considering the previous moves were all lesser programs by quite a distance. Texas A&M (a cash cow) perhaps certainly on that level but not anyone else that has moved.

I would also think it more cost effective for TEEVEE Partners to for instance lets say pay 40 million per (just a number) to 6 teams instead of 10 , with the other 4 getting much less in an AAC type conference. If one were to assume long term that 40 million to be rock solid that would constitute a 10 year savings of 1.6 Billion minus whatever the other 4 get somewhere else which isn't going to be much in the grand scheme of things.

I see no scenario whatsoever the BIG 12 would make the playoffs every year. I think more times than not they won't make it. Remember Ohio St got in last year and didn't even win the BIG 10, got in because of the BRAND. It's getting close to the point now a one loss BIG 12 team has a far more uphill battle to get there than the other conferences. On'y 4 spots and come hell or high water they want at least one SEC and BIG10 teams regardless every year. most years that will happen..maybe not all but most.
11-13-2017 02:32 PM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
With the networks currently in cost-cutting mode as they're losing the artificially high number of subscriptions that the cable packages had produced, I just don't think they're going to want to pay full boat for the entire Big 12 roster when they can buy the most desirable programs a la carte by lowballing the Big 12 relative to the other conferences while simultaneously giving the conferences they're currently locked into regardless pro-rata amounts to add particular schools (basically what happened to Big East football). Can probably save close to six figures annually that way, depending on how it shakes out.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2017 02:34 PM by Bogg.)
11-13-2017 02:33 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 01:37 PM)Bigdog731 Wrote:  I’m of the opinion the BIG 12 will cease to exist close to or when the existing contract expires which is not really that far out. No way will 2/3/4 or whatever current teams left behind be able to raid the AAC and MWC and keep the BIG 12 alive, just not going to happen. The BIG 12 is a victim of geography or lack thereof in terms of big population states and Texas just isn’t big enough to carry this conference on its back long term when it comes to being part of the power country club. Keep in mind this conference has only two marquee programs, Texas and Oklahoma…Both are going to want out close to or when the current deal runs out and when that happens the exodus begins. Some will be left behind..who knows? perhaps programs like Baylor , Iowa St, Kansas St and TCU won’t make it. TCU namely because the C stands for Christian (haha) would the PAC12 or Big10 take a TCU? I think not but who knows…the SEC might but that could be a long shot. TCU is just a few years removed from the MWC, remember that. Baylor is toxic and won’t be on anyone’s radar…I suppose Iowa ST and Kansas State could be long shots to make the cut but in my opinion not.

I think what may happen is the AAC just stands pat and waits for the BIG 12 to dissolve and takes maybe two, TCU and Kansas St. The MWC gets Iowa St and Baylor. Who knows? I also think when the AAC does a new deal the terms coincide or be really close to (not more than a year or two longer) when the BIG 12 ultimately dissolves. Not saying some super AAC TEEVEE deal long terms either. I actually think the AAC is well positioned long term because a handful of teams might get screwed big time if the BIG 12 actually does dissolve at some point.

I believed it then and I have seen nothing to change my mind since all this started a few years ago. When the Big 12 lost Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M and Missouri that was more or less the writing on the wall...the replacement of TCU and WVU not now and never will be able to come close to making up for those losses. Loosing Texas A&M and Nebraska was really telling in terms of the beginning of the end of this conference. It just taken longer and made for a much slower death. Heck, if a few tweaks here and there would have happened a few short years ago this conference would already be dead. This conference was literally down to 8 teams before the mad scramble to add TCU/WVU. Just think about that for a second. The BIG 12 gets raided by the PAC12/BIG10/SEC and they have to go the dead conference walking BIG EAST and MWC just to find two replacements.

The Prestige the BIG12 has lost is absolutely real and cannot be overstated. As far as all the Power 5 stuff make no mistake the BIG 12 is at the bottom of the pecking order now and will forever be if they were to hang around, which I don’t think will happen. Is Texas and Oklahoma ok with this for the next 50 years????? I think not and they have lots of options and long term more lucrative ones at that.

I don’t know who or how many get left behind but I don’t think all the current members make the cut. I think it could be as few as 2 or as many as 4.

You know, when the GOR expires, there will still be B12 exit fees---they just wont be as high. There will also be a crap load of left behind NCAA credits. Sure, its not going to be a P5 conference any longer--but with a core of Iowa St, Baylor, TCU, and Kansas St (might find W Virginia is stuck as well). Those 4 or 5 schools are a pretty darn attractive match for the AAC West schools. UConn, Cinci, and UCF would be good adds from AAC East. BYU is still out there and Colorado St, N Mexico, and Boise relatively nearby--plenty of material to build around that remaining Big12 core--and some left behind NCAA/exit fee money to negotiate with.

1) Baylor
2) TCU
3) Kansas St
4) Iowa St
5) W Virginia (maybe gets left if things dont fall right)
5/6) Houston
6/7) SMU
7/8) Memphis
8/9) Cinci
9/10) Navy
10/11) BYU
11/12) Either one or two of UConn, Boise, AF, New Mexico, Colorado St, UCF, ECU, Temple, USF, Tulsa, or Tulane. Plus, there is room for Wichita St as a basketball only to offset the Navy football only membership. If W Virginia is still in the conference the model might go more east coast with the last two picks. If W Virginia is gone, the model likely goes west. The Florida schools are great adds---but they are kinda going to be outliers. You could make it a bit better by adding both.

The point is--there is plenty of material from which to build a very attractive "tweener" conference if the Big12 implodes and some are left behind. I dont think they would have trouble attracting AAC schools (especially AAC west schools).
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2017 02:36 PM by Attackcoog.)
11-13-2017 02:36 PM
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HHOOTter Offline
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 01:51 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  It is what Texas wants. It starts and ends there. Would they rather run a P5 league or be a "team player" in another power league? If you're Oklahoma, would you rather be a playoff contender or have the same fate as the defectors?

Which scenario benefits Texas the most?
Stay put vs joining another conference
Big Dawg vs playing w/ the pack
Calling the shots vs just being another club member

IF u look @ current $$$/TV contracts/conference affiliation
Texas is already close to receiving top dollar over most schools
and Oklahoma is @ least equal w/ most SEC/BIG schools in terms of revenues

U thunk Texas would willingly give up an xtra $15 million a yr ?
(Shorthorn Network contract thru 2032)
What kind of arrangement (How much will a conference Give In)
to allow Shorthorn Network to exist & show conference games?

Everyone figures, it will B the Big 12 that will dissolve
Don’t B surprised IF Big 12 doesn’t try to make a few Big Plays
towards schools who are unsatisfied in other P5 conferences.

Also, watch the Florida market,
IF USF & UCF continue to build, to increase revenue & support
Top 10 TV markets, Top recreational destination, great recruiting area,
Big 12 might pull the trigger & bring them in vs Totally Disbanding

Remember Texas is a HUGE f-ball state (Recruiting/TV ratings/Support)
And on the nat’l stage both Texas & Oklahoma command alot of interest & support.
They've already shown they can make it as is & thrive.

U can guarantee,
Texas will make sure, that what ever happens
with the new TV contract/ conference merger talks,
Texas will do what is best for Texas, period!
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2017 03:11 PM by HHOOTter.)
11-13-2017 02:39 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
Agree with Attackcoog, and I think you may see ESPN lay the groundwork for this by holding the line pretty low on the upcoming AAC and MW TV contracts.

EDIT: Also don't believe the "it all comes down to Texas" thing is for sure. If a conference can pull away Oklahoma and Kansas then Texas may be forced to bail even if they weren't planning to. Given that those schools have to know how precarious it is to remain in a conference that's only viable so long as Texas is there, they may be inclined to jump ship first if it means securing their future.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2017 03:01 PM by Bogg.)
11-13-2017 02:44 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
I think the odds will favor the Big 12 staying together pretty much as they are now configured.
11-13-2017 02:50 PM
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