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Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 07:20 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The most likely scenario is that the second weakest conference (Pac 12) raids the weakest (Big 12). It will be like the whole SWC split all over again.
My guess is that the Texahoma four will go to the new Pac-16. I do not believe that the other power conferences will be in a rush to expand for a lot of reasons so the Kansas/UConn to Big 10 move probably wouldn't happen for a while. Kansas sucking at football is going to catch up to them.

Who would the Big 12 reload with?
Probably UConn, Cincy, Houston, and SMU. I don't see them going to 12 because I believe adding six G5 schools instead of four hurts the diminished brand more. The Big12 would no longer be a power conference but more of a true tweeter conference so BYU will thumb its nose at it.
UCF and USF are directionals so I don't think Kansas (the kingpin of the conference) would be too excited to add them.

I am one of the few that thinks the Big12 probably is going to survive as is.

If its between staying in the Big12 or going to the Pac12---I think UT stays put. In fact, I think the Big12 has a better than 50-50 chance of remaining whole. Does UT really want to put its athletes at at 2 time zone disadvatage? Does UT really want 9:30 PM starts for football and basketball? Does UT really want to become an afterthought for 2/3 of the population? Oh, and is the only college football team with its own TV network willing to give up the LHN to get those late night starts and distant travel?

Im not seeing it. I can see UT in the Big10---but does UT they want top play in the snow? Do they want to trade Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St for Michigan and Purdue? At least in the Big10, giving up the Longhorn Network is offset by even more revenue. So, I think this is the most likely destination if UT leaves the Big12

I dont think UT would defect to the SEC--but I do think UT fans would like it if they did. UT vs Aggie returns. Those SEC games be very interesting for fans and the climate and travel are both reasonable. But...UT would have to give up the LHN and they wouldnt get any real offset in return as far as revenue goes. The ACC would be ok--less interesting schedule than the SEC---though the travel is further than the SEC (but better than the Pac12). Again, the ACC doesnt offer much of a revenue offset for the loss of the LHN.

So, when you really think about it, the Big12 is a pretty good home for UT. Now if Oklahoma leaves....well, that might change things. But I dont think Oklahoma leaves the Big12 if UT is committed to staying in the Big12.

I guess we will see how it turns out in 7 years or so.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2017 07:44 PM by Attackcoog.)
11-13-2017 07:39 PM
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cuseroc Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 03:44 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  It's the ACC that will fall apart before the Big 12. They are a house of cards ESPN created football conference and relatively new money. The Big 12 is top to bottom better than the ACC. The ACC is a historical light heavyweight with 5 Big East schools plus a CUSA school. The penalties that Louisville, Miami and North Carolina have earned haven't even begun to take their toll. When they do, you will see those 3 looking like the SWC schools and Oklahoma of the 90's. The ACC is also tied 100% to ESPN for the next 20 years. I think ESPN will be in trouble over the next few years. The ACC is the endangered species here..that's always been and still is my prediction. We shall see.

Lots of folks have been predicting the demise of the ACC for years now, ever since Maryland bolted to the BIG. But today the ACC is as stable as its ever been. The revenue sports are better than they have ever been. The league is making more money than it ever has, and according to some comments coming out of the ACC office, revenue is set to skyrocket with the new ACCN. Folks in the ACC office have been very pleased with the media deals for the ACCN, and have learned the do's and the dont's from the SECN.

Folks who continue to predict the demise of the ACC seem to forget that the core ACC schools want to be together (thus why the have not run off to the BIG or SEC), which encourages the newcomers to want to stay together. So, haters keep on hatin, doomsayers keep on doomsaying, while the ACC keeps getting stronger, more stable and richer.
11-13-2017 07:48 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 04:20 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 03:44 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  It's the ACC that will fall apart before the Big 12. They are a house of cards ESPN created football conference and relatively new money. The Big 12 is top to bottom better than the ACC. The ACC is a historical light heavyweight with 5 Big East schools plus a CUSA school. The penalties that Louisville, Miami and North Carolina have earned haven't even begun to take their toll. When they do, you will see those 3 looking like the SWC schools and Oklahoma of the 90's. The ACC is also tied 100% to ESPN for the next 20 years. I think ESPN will be in trouble over the next few years. The ACC is the endangered species here..that's always been and still is my prediction. We shall see.

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11-13-2017 07:58 PM
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panite Online
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Post: #34
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 02:50 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think the odds will favor the Big 12 staying together pretty much as they are now configured.

This ^^^^^^ and / or the B-12 also adds 2 more schools when the next TV contract comes around and divides into 2 six school divisions for their Conference championship Game. 05-stirthepot 05-stirthepot 05-stirthepot 05-mafia 07-coffee3 05-nono 03-lmfao
11-13-2017 08:01 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 04:34 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 02:50 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think the odds will favor the Big 12 staying together pretty much as they are now configured.

Meh, the schools with real value will get offers from the SEC, B1G and Pac-12. I don't see the ACC inviting any of the Big XII besides WVU, the other schools are just too far away and the big dogs (UT/OU) aren't coming to the ACC.

TCU actually would be a good fit with the other schools like Miami, BC, Miami, Duke, and Wake. ACC wants into Texas.
11-13-2017 08:02 PM
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shizzle787 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 07:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 07:20 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The most likely scenario is that the second weakest conference (Pac 12) raids the weakest (Big 12). It will be like the whole SWC split all over again.
My guess is that the Texahoma four will go to the new Pac-16. I do not believe that the other power conferences will be in a rush to expand for a lot of reasons so the Kansas/UConn to Big 10 move probably wouldn't happen for a while. Kansas sucking at football is going to catch up to them.

Who would the Big 12 reload with?
Probably UConn, Cincy, Houston, and SMU. I don't see them going to 12 because I believe adding six G5 schools instead of four hurts the diminished brand more. The Big12 would no longer be a power conference but more of a true tweeter conference so BYU will thumb its nose at it.
UCF and USF are directionals so I don't think Kansas (the kingpin of the conference) would be too excited to add them.

I am one of the few that thinks the Big12 probably is going to survive as is.

If its between staying in the Big12 or going to the Pac12---I think UT stays put. In fact, I think the Big12 has a better than 50-50 chance of remaining whole. Does UT really want to put its athletes at at 2 time zone disadvatage? Does UT really want 9:30 PM starts for football and basketball? Does UT really want to become an afterthought for 2/3 of the population? Oh, and is the only college football team with its own TV network willing to give up the LHN to get those late night starts and distant travel?

Im not seeing it. I can see UT in the Big10---but does UT they want top play in the snow? Do they want to trade Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St for Michigan and Purdue? At least in the Big10, giving up the Longhorn Network is offset by even more revenue. So, I think this is the most likely destination if UT leaves the Big12

I dont think UT would defect to the SEC--but I do think UT fans would like it if they did. UT vs Aggie returns. Those SEC games be very interesting for fans and the climate and travel are both reasonable. But...UT would have to give up the LHN and they wouldnt get any real offset in return as far as revenue goes. The ACC would be ok--less interesting schedule than the SEC---though the travel is further than the SEC (but better than the Pac12). Again, the ACC doesnt offer much of a revenue offset for the loss of the LHN.

So, when you really think about it, the Big12 is a pretty good home for UT. Now if Oklahoma leaves....well, that might change things. But I dont think Oklahoma leaves the Big12 if UT is committed to staying in the Big12.

I guess we will see how it turns out in 7 years or so.

They wouldn't have 9:30 pm games for football. There would be written agreements stipulating Texas games not starting later than say 8. I believe the conference will dissolve because OK holds the chips. They want to leave. That leverage will be used to coerce Texas who doesn't want to be in an even weaker Big 12.

And I doubt SMU would be invited now that I think about it (TCU). So I could see Air Force joining UConn, Cincy, and Houston.
11-13-2017 08:13 PM
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RutgersGuy Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
(11-13-2017 08:02 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 04:34 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(11-13-2017 02:50 PM)ken d Wrote:  I think the odds will favor the Big 12 staying together pretty much as they are now configured.

Meh, the schools with real value will get offers from the SEC, B1G and Pac-12. I don't see the ACC inviting any of the Big XII besides WVU, the other schools are just too far away and the big dogs (UT/OU) aren't coming to the ACC.

TCU actually would be a good fit with the other schools like Miami, BC, Miami, Duke, and Wake. ACC wants into Texas.

I don't think they want an island in Texas and needs to keep one spot open for Notre Dame. Also I think TCU will get a better offer (SEC).
11-13-2017 08:33 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
The Big 12 will lose at least 2 schools at the end of the GOR and one will be Oklahoma.

I don't think enough schools will leave to fully dissolve the league and the left behind members will rebuild the league into a tweener league with AAC, MWC, and maybe BYU.

As I think about it, I think Texas might be inclined to keep a post-Oklahoma Big 12 alive as they would enjoy even greater control of league affairs than they do now.

The Pac 16 plan only works for Texas if they get to bring 3 friends with them. Oklahoma doesn't want to be a part of that plan because the Big Ten and SEC offer them better options. The Big Ten is not a great cultural fit for Texas and while the SEC would be a decent fit I just don't see the egos working out.
11-13-2017 09:01 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
Only if A&M allows it, SEC is notorious for not allowing schools to add competitor from another state. Also, it is no more of an island than BC or Miami. Swofford dream has been Notre Dame and Texas. Notre Dame will get first offer, the question does ND demand Navy, if not TCU would be a good option. Actually, I love to see TX and ND to the ACC. Ok and Ok St to the SEC. Have Texas play OU/OSU/A&M once every three years as the last game of the year as part of the other SEC/ACC rival games.
11-13-2017 09:11 PM
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Wolfman Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Will the BIG12 eventually dissolve
If 3 or 4 teams leave, the B12 brand and remaining teams are strong enough to pull the top teams from the AAC and MWC. That B12 is strong enough to remain in the CFP AND keep their P5, 2-vote status.

If it goes much deeper than that, the remaining teams will look east because of the favorable time zone.
11-13-2017 09:31 PM
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