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Chicago State Death Spiral
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Stugray2 Offline
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Chicago State Death Spiral
Here are the numbers

Fall 2011: decrease of 480 students from Fall 2010 (6.5 percent) 7,449
Fall 2012: decrease of 775 students from Fall 2011 (11.3 percent) 6,969
Fall 2013: decrease of 406 students from Fall 2012 (6.4 percent) 6,194
Fall 2014: decrease of 493 students from Fall 2013 (8.6 percent) 5,701
Fall 2015: decrease of 1,083 students from Fall 2014 (23.5 percent) 4,618
transfers out 1,109 ("Equivalencies")
transfers in 11
Fall 2016: decrease of 1,040 students from Fall 2015 (29.0 percent) 3,578
new enrolled Freshmen 86 (includes part time students)
Fun fact: 26 of the Freshmen are on CSU athletic teams (counted their rosters) or 30%

At least the number of entering Freshmen is similar to the size of the graduating class.
NE illinois grew more than 800 students this year, up from 748 last year. It seems low income students have made a choice, would rather take the L across town than go to CSU.

Spring 2017:
... numbers not released, rumors range from 2800 to 3000

And this note on Spring 2017 Enrollment from CSU Professor Robert Bionaz made earlier this week:

"I have noticed that the daily enrollment reports have disappeared. What is the enrollment since the university has passed the 10 day mark. How many students down is the university in the 13th consecutive semester of enrollment decline?"

The accreditation is uncertain, they are being audited at the moment, and last report were under warning since summer, and have AFAIK made no progress toward compliance.

On the Clock:
Chicago State is completing it's 4th year of its 5 year contract with the WAC. It will surprise no one if that contract is not renewed this Spring (you never leave extensions to the lame duck year) as Chicago State has failed to meet nearly all of their contractual obligations, from track and field and other facility safety to starting a soccer team or hiring the minimum number of non-coaching athletic staff required.
01-26-2017 06:56 PM
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NuMexAg Offline
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RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
Seems to me that in spite of Chicago State's sorry situation, the WAC is not in a very good position to be dropping members. The addition of Cal Baptist takes a little pressure off - but not that much. I could see the WAC extending Chi State for another couple of years just to keep its numbers up.
01-28-2017 09:34 AM
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00yyz Offline
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RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
(01-28-2017 09:34 AM)NuMexAg Wrote:  Seems to me that in spite of Chicago State's sorry situation, the WAC is not in a very good position to be dropping members. The addition of Cal Baptist takes a little pressure off - but not that much. I could see the WAC extending Chi State for another couple of years just to keep its numbers up.

I think having a school like Chicago St in your league is a deterant that keeps real schools from joining...
The WAC has 8 with Cal Baptist no reason to keep a lead anchor...
The WAC also needs to reduce their conference footprint over time which this will do...
01-28-2017 12:17 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
Chicago State's WAC contract expires June 30th, 2018. They are in (multiple) breach of contract with the WAC on several key points, from safety, to staffing minimums (not close below by about 15 positions), to not starting the sports program they agreed to and are contractually obligated.

It's looking like the school will fall below 2500 in fall 2017 no matter what, possibly below 2000 students. If you look to Fall 2018, unless an amazing thing happens there you might barely have 1500 students.

From the WAC standpoint why would you invest a new contract for such an at risk school, out of footprint, lacking resources, and proven to not meet contractual obligations?

I have to agree also that Chicago State damages the image and viability of the WAC. Letting their contract expire is a case of addition by subtraction.
01-28-2017 02:04 PM
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NuMexAg Offline
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RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
(01-28-2017 02:04 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Chicago State's WAC contract expires June 30th, 2018. They are in (multiple) breach of contract with the WAC on several key points, from safety, to staffing minimums (not close below by about 15 positions), to not starting the sports program they agreed to and are contractually obligated.

It's looking like the school will fall below 2500 in fall 2017 no matter what, possibly below 2000 students. If you look to Fall 2018, unless an amazing thing happens there you might barely have 1500 students.

From the WAC standpoint why would you invest a new contract for such an at risk school, out of footprint, lacking resources, and proven to not meet contractual obligations?

I have to agree also that Chicago State damages the image and viability of the WAC. Letting their contract expire is a case of addition by subtraction.

No doubt Chiago State is a drag on the WAC's reputation. But it's location is probably at least a small plus for recruiting - it is for NMSU anyway.

And it does keep another D1 member. Grand Canyon isn't yet D1, and Cal Baptist won't be for years. The WAC might need that extra body for an additional year or so. They might not even last that long of course, but if the WAC declines to renew, they could pull the plug At the end of this year, before GCU makes it to D1 status.

Bad situation no matter what. Just a different angle on the problem.
01-28-2017 02:33 PM
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RunnerBall Offline
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RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
Wow! 1500! Even 2000 is tiny for a D1 public. My sis went to Fresno Pacific in the early 80s when it was about 1000 (and NAIA) and I remember thinking how small it was.


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01-28-2017 05:29 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
Now that the boiler was fixed and heat restored Thursday afternoon (campus was closed for awhile), maybe it's time for an upbeat story on Angela Jackson and her 0-24 Lady Cougars from the NY Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/sport....html?_r=0

The article goes into some details about the athletic program, it's budget and such. Most of which we knew. But I include the story mostly for this comment about their future in the WAC:

Jeff Hurd, the WAC’s commissioner, said in a statement that the conference was providing administrative guidance as Chicago State sought to remain a Division I school. But he stopped short of saying that the Cougars would remain in the league.
02-12-2017 02:36 PM
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CrimsonPhantom Offline
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RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
(02-12-2017 02:36 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Now that the boiler was fixed and heat restored Thursday afternoon (campus was closed for awhile), maybe it's time for an upbeat story on Angela Jackson and her 0-24 Lady Cougars from the NY Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/sport....html?_r=0

The article goes into some details about the athletic program, it's budget and such. Most of which we knew. But I include the story mostly for this comment about their future in the WAC:

Jeff Hurd, the WAC’s commissioner, said in a statement that the conference was providing administrative guidance as Chicago State sought to remain a Division I school. But he stopped short of saying that the Cougars would remain in the league.

Interesting!
02-12-2017 06:19 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
The WAC is not going to hold Chicago State in violation of their contract. The Illinois State budget crisis has made it impossible for them to field a men's soccer team or to live up to other aspects of their contract. They need the 18 month budget war to get settled and then their new board members appointed by the Governor can start to look at making changes that will stabilize the University.

The fallout from the budget crisis will be that many schools will cut sports to save money. Eastern Illinois and Western Illinois are two prime examples. EIU has had a reduction in enrollment of 13% this year. They have laid off 200 employees. That still won't be enough. WIU has had a reduction of 6.5% in enrollment and has let go of 160 employees and is cutting $20 million off the budget over the next two years. Both of these schools play football and also men's soccer in the Summit League. I can see men's soccer being given the ax to save football, which would put the Summit under the necessary six schools for men's soccer. They are already at the bare minimum of six for baseball.

The WAC is not going to drop Chicago State without another D1 school stepping in. Denver, Sacramento State and Northern Colorado could all be candidates at some point in the near future. In the meantime, the WAC will give Chicago State every chance to make it work. The athletic facilities are not bad. The basketball arena was built in 2007 at a cost of $38 million and seats 7,000. The baseball field was built in 2013 at a cost of $2.5 million and seats 2,500. Chicago State is a 161 acre campus in the city. They are not closing it and there is not one politician that thinks it is a good idea to close it. Once the budget crisis is solved they can move forward.
02-15-2017 02:04 AM
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gleadley Offline
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RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
(02-15-2017 02:04 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The WAC is not going to hold Chicago State in violation of their contract. The Illinois State budget crisis has made it impossible for them to field a men's soccer team or to live up to other aspects of their contract. They need the 18 month budget war to get settled and then their new board members appointed by the Governor can start to look at making changes that will stabilize the University.

The fallout from the budget crisis will be that many schools will cut sports to save money. Eastern Illinois and Western Illinois are two prime examples. EIU has had a reduction in enrollment of 13% this year. They have laid off 200 employees. That still won't be enough. WIU has had a reduction of 6.5% in enrollment and has let go of 160 employees and is cutting $20 million off the budget over the next two years. Both of these schools play football and also men's soccer in the Summit League. I can see men's soccer being given the ax to save football, which would put the Summit under the necessary six schools for men's soccer. They are already at the bare minimum of six for baseball.

The WAC is not going to drop Chicago State without another D1 school stepping in. Denver, Sacramento State and Northern Colorado could all be candidates at some point in the near future. In the meantime, the WAC will give Chicago State every chance to make it work. The athletic facilities are not bad. The basketball arena was built in 2007 at a cost of $38 million and seats 7,000. The baseball field was built in 2013 at a cost of $2.5 million and seats 2,500. Chicago State is a 161 acre campus in the city. They are not closing it and there is not one politician that thinks it is a good idea to close it. Once the budget crisis is solved they can move forward.

It was interesting to see CSU Athletics publicly respond on Twitter to a post that linked this article, stating the school is not in danger of closing & asking people not to "believe (or push) the hype!!!!!" I mentioned to others that I would love to know which information, specifically, they take exception with. A lot of the numbers have been thrown around here, and none of them paint a pretty picture.

It's easy to say "once the budget crisis is solved", but that is putting a lot of faith in IL politicians. Assuming Chi St athletics do survive THIS state budget crisis, what about the next one? Or the one after that? Or the one after that? Unless somebody in the state found a magic wand, rubbed a lamp with a genie inside, of planted a grove of money trees they are just waiting to come into bloom, I'm not sure I would assume long term stability.
02-15-2017 10:46 AM
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