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Chicago State Death Spiral
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
My read is the WAC is simply going to let the Chicago State contract expire. It's the easiest path.

Chicago State's (interim) President (who by the way is not an academic, rather something of an activist/promoter) "disputes" the $2.8m budget figure the NYT gave. But of course he offers no evidence. Knowing the NYT, they did some research, probably got those numbers from a WAC official and confirmed them off the record with a CSU athletic department figure. The alternate fact approach of CSU leadership is paralleled in the declining enrollment, where Mr. Lucy (weird to not be able to say Dr. Lucy when speaking of a school President) simply ordered the weekly attendance reports no longer be announced in the weekly faculty status (or any status) meetings or reports (what exactly is the attendance office reporting weekly?). I am inclined to believe the leaked numbers for both attendance and athletic funding, as these are coming from more credible sources. I have to put Mr. Lucy and the Administration of Chicago State in the same category as Mr. Trump and his administration -- believe nothing until confirmed by independent sources and leaks.

I don't think the budget resolution, which actually has some hope, will make any difference in CSU athletics. The decision to return in 2017-18 will likely come from the new Board and not the Administration. They really have three choices:

1. run out the WAC contract and decide next year what to do in 2018-19 onward
2. shut down athletics after the season and redirect the $2.8m into the school
3. drop down to D-II or NAIA on the same budget (can go down to 10 teams - no need for track)

The NYT reporter found Ms. Jackson to be a hard working dedicated and good person. The staff at CSU includes many such people, For them this situation is terribly unfair. D-I is unfair for them.

Note: Chicago State has at most 3,000 students, and a large percentage are non traditional, with an average age of 31. This is not a typical 18-24 year old full campus with HS enthusiasm for sports. A turnaround in attendance will take several years, and start with further declines -- I see the best case stabilization number around 2,000-2,500, which would hold for at least a few years before slowly climbing up again. The demand for higher education is declining in Illinois, which is a demographic trend (older population), and total University enrollment across the State has been declining. There is no giant pool of untapped qualified students to suddenly fill Chicago State. Athletics needs to be in line with this reality.

2nd Note: The school would be wise to lease the JCC to an outside management group (perhaps the city), simply reserving the rights to use it a few times a year, such as convocation. Rather than be a money drain, it could be a revenue source (likely the management would pay to have your maintenance department do the routine work there you are currently paying for) . Use the old gym (refurbish it if need be) for games.
02-15-2017 12:41 PM
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CrimsonPhantom Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
(02-15-2017 02:04 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  The WAC is not going to hold Chicago State in violation of their contract. The Illinois State budget crisis has made it impossible for them to field a men's soccer team or to live up to other aspects of their contract. They need the 18 month budget war to get settled and then their new board members appointed by the Governor can start to look at making changes that will stabilize the University.

The fallout from the budget crisis will be that many schools will cut sports to save money. Eastern Illinois and Western Illinois are two prime examples. EIU has had a reduction in enrollment of 13% this year. They have laid off 200 employees. That still won't be enough. WIU has had a reduction of 6.5% in enrollment and has let go of 160 employees and is cutting $20 million off the budget over the next two years. Both of these schools play football and also men's soccer in the Summit League. I can see men's soccer being given the ax to save football, which would put the Summit under the necessary six schools for men's soccer. They are already at the bare minimum of six for baseball.

The WAC is not going to drop Chicago State without another D1 school stepping in. Denver, Sacramento State and Northern Colorado could all be candidates at some point in the near future. In the meantime, the WAC will give Chicago State every chance to make it work. The athletic facilities are not bad. The basketball arena was built in 2007 at a cost of $38 million and seats 7,000. The baseball field was built in 2013 at a cost of $2.5 million and seats 2,500. Chicago State is a 161 acre campus in the city. They are not closing it and there is not one politician that thinks it is a good idea to close it. Once the budget crisis is solved they can move forward.

They had three years to do at least one thing before the financial crisis in Illinois. CST did nothing in those three years.
02-15-2017 01:23 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
Chicago State had men's soccer in the 2016-2017 budget before the budget crisis hit. The first two years were normal years, with Chicago State receiving $36 million in the 2014-2015 fiscal year. Had they received similar funding from the state the past two years, they would not be in the same position they are in now. They would have had another $40 million. They have received $32 million the past 18 months from the state.

This is not to say that Chicago State was running a tight ship. They were mismanaged and they needed new leadership. The state of Illinois should not be pouring money into Chicago State or any other school that is being mismanaged. There needs to be accountability, something the whole state lacks. But not funding schools just means programs and classes are eliminated and will effect enrollment, which then effects revenue.

The WAC does not need to do anything. They can do watchful waiting. See where the state fiscal issues go. See what kind of changes happen at Chicago State. Obviously, if a D1 school decides that they want to join the WAC, then the WAC could decide not to extend the contract with Chicago State.

But it is not just Chicago State that is at risk in Illinois. Every public school in Illinois at every level is hurting because of the state budget crisis. Both Western Illinois and Eastern Illinois are dipping into reserves to pay bills. A league like the Summit is very vulnerable if WIU and EIU start cutting sports programs. So another league's loss could be a gain for the WAC. We will just have to see how this plays out over the next year.
02-16-2017 09:01 AM
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teamvsn Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
I am starting to see athletes from Chicago State transferring to NAIA schools.

I'm not entirely sure the NAIA would accept them. Finances aside, it really depends on how well their athletics are run. I've heard rumors that D2 Salem International applied to NAIA a year or two ago but were refused because of some serious issues in their athletics program. Hearsay, don't quote me.
02-19-2017 12:14 AM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
We have Spring 2017 numbers. Not as bad as rumors

• Fall 2011: decrease of 480 students from Fall 2010 (6.5 percent) 7,449
• Fall 2012: decrease of 775 students from Fall 2011 (11.3 percent) 6,969
• Fall 2013: decrease of 406 students from Fall 2012 (6.4 percent) 6,194
• Fall 2014: decrease of 493 students from Fall 2013 (8.6 percent) 5,701
• Fall 2015: decrease of 1,083 students from Fall 2014 (23.5 percent) 4,618
transfers out 1,109 ("Equivalencies")
transfers in 11
• Fall 2016: decrease of 1,040 students from Fall 2015 (29.0 percent) 3,578
new enrolled Freshmen 86 (includes part time students)
Fun fact: 26 of the Freshmen are on CSU athletic teams (counted their rosters) or 30%

At least the number of entering Freshmen is similar to the size of the graduating class.
NE Illinois grew more than 800 students this year, up from 748 last year.

• Spring 2017: decrease of 323 students from Fall 2016 (9.9 percent) 3,255
full-time employees (administrators, faculty, and staff. Excluding athletic department employees)
773 in February 2016, 531 in February 2017 (45.6 percent decrease in staffing year on year)

These are the only mid-year numbers I have. They seem to be in line with a 20% or more drop in Fall 2017 from fall 2016. This will likely be the third year in a row of such steep decline. I'm just hoping the new board does something to correct the free fall. Anyway more numbers as I get them
02-23-2017 08:36 PM
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SeattleVandals Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
Maybe im wrong but losing 9.9% of enrollment in just a semester seems like an even bigger crisis than I imagined...

How many D1 public schools have a smaller enrollment than CSU? D2? Lewis-Clark State here in Lewiston is NAIA with a similar enrollment number
02-23-2017 08:51 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
(02-23-2017 08:36 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  We have Spring 2017 numbers. Not as bad as rumors

• Fall 2011: decrease of 480 students from Fall 2010 (6.5 percent) 7,449
• Fall 2012: decrease of 775 students from Fall 2011 (11.3 percent) 6,969
• Fall 2013: decrease of 406 students from Fall 2012 (6.4 percent) 6,194
• Fall 2014: decrease of 493 students from Fall 2013 (8.6 percent) 5,701
• Fall 2015: decrease of 1,083 students from Fall 2014 (23.5 percent) 4,618
transfers out 1,109 ("Equivalencies")
transfers in 11
• Fall 2016: decrease of 1,040 students from Fall 2015 (29.0 percent) 3,578
new enrolled Freshmen 86 (includes part time students)
Fun fact: 26 of the Freshmen are on CSU athletic teams (counted their rosters) or 30%

At least the number of entering Freshmen is similar to the size of the graduating class.
NE Illinois grew more than 800 students this year, up from 748 last year.

• Spring 2017: decrease of 323 students from Fall 2016 (9.9 percent) 3,255
full-time employees (administrators, faculty, and staff. Excluding athletic department employees)
773 in February 2016, 531 in February 2017 (45.6 percent decrease in staffing year on year)

These are the only mid-year numbers I have. They seem to be in line with a 20% or more drop in Fall 2017 from fall 2016. This will likely be the third year in a row of such steep decline. I'm just hoping the new board does something to correct the free fall. Anyway more numbers as I get them

Is there a point to these numbers? The whole state is suffering because of the state budget crisis. Eastern Illinois freshmen enrollment was down 25%. Southern Illinois freshmen enrollment was down 24%. You keep bringing up North Eastern Illinois University as some model of success. They are also having their struggles. See Below:

https://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20170209...-stalemate

As the article states, NEIU is barely hanging there. The state budget crisis cost them $26 million in state funding last year and $17 million this year. They are no different than Chicago State in that respect. NEIU freshmen enrollment is up because they now have on campus housing due to a 110 unit dorm that opened this fall on their 67 acre campus. That accounts for their increase in freshmen enrollment of about 60 students.

But NEIU is not similar to these other schools. They have no athletic programs. They have a graduation rate of 5%, one of the lowest in the country. They have lower admission standards than Chicago State. NEIU is a commuter school with no athletic programs, so they are not similar to Chicago State or Eastern Illinois or Southern Illinois or Western Illinois. They are similar in that they are struggling financially due to the state budget crisis.
02-25-2017 04:30 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
A few point SoCal

1. Chicago State is not "like" other Illinois schools. Their reserves are completely exhausted, and they are sputtering on emergency state funding. While other schools in the state are struggling, none of these other schools is imminent danger of shutdown. NEIU serves over 10,000 students, and like CSU is made up of non-residential students.
2. These numbers are here to counter the lies of the Chicago State Administration, and keep conversations about them grounded in hard numbers and facts.
3. This is also to counter the illusions of certain posters who claim there is no crisis, and that WAC D-I level athletics is somehow wise and sustainable. I should add gate and donation revenues, both the school and athletics to show how anemic the support and how absurd the charade is.

The fundamental point of the numbers is to show that CSU, if ther should have any athletics at all (which your NEIU mention having no sports is appropriate) it should be at the NAIA in the Chicagoland conference (D-II Basketball). WAC is hopeless, and the numbers are a pounding drumbeat reminder to those who say otherwise. The numbers also show that the school of 7,800 who first negotiated with the WAC for the 5 year trial contract is no more, a shell of that school is all that is left; this is not the school the WAC signed.

The other fundamental point of the numbers is to show that the crisis is much deeper than the State budget crisis and the precipitous decline in enrollment began before Rauner ever took office. The causes are deeper, more fundamental, and wont be rectified with a State budget. That may slow the slide, but any turnaround for a school with worse demographics and less than 1/3rd the enrollment of NEIU is unlikely - we are talking a decade at least. Supporting WAC sports is beyond insane.

That these facts and figures frustrates DavidSt, NoDak, Tex and you pretty much proves their value.
(This post was last modified: 02-27-2017 03:19 PM by Stugray2.)
02-27-2017 03:18 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
Stugray2,

Without the budget crisis, Chicago State is not dipping into their reserves. That is just a fact. They have had plenty of other issues for decades. They have had bad management, falling enrollment and low graduation rates. The budget issues have made these problems much worse. Many schools in the state are going into their reserves, laying off employees, dropping classes and have falling enrollment, but Chicago State was a school that could not handle this crisis as well as other schools have.

So what do they gain by fulfilling your dream and dropping down to NAIA? Last year they had a 6.2 million athletic budget. They supposedly got by on half of that. They brought in revenues of about $750,000 from money games and NCAA tournament revenue. How do they make that up? The 7,000 seat Jones Convocation Center is already used for purposes other than baskketball. It is bought and paid for, less than a decade old. They have a new baseball stadium. What do they gain by dropping down? How much money would they save and how do they make up for the loss in revenue?

The new board will figure this all out once the budget crises has been resolved. I would expect them to maintain the athletic program at the D1 level. With new management the enrollment numbers will get corrected. If the WAC can find a better fit for the conference than Chicago State, then they could be let go. But the Summit League needs baseball and men's soccer help, so I think Chicago State would find a home in that league.
(This post was last modified: 03-01-2017 10:44 AM by SoCalBobcat78.)
02-28-2017 12:01 PM
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Post: #20
RE: Chicago State Death Spiral
How did they only get 86 freshman? That number almost seems too low to believe
02-28-2017 03:23 PM
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