RE: Question: Are the P5 conference really going to leave UConn and Cincy out to dry?
Whether Cincinnati and Connecticut get picked up depends on whether the power 5 stay the power 5, or become the power 4. And then it depends on which one of the conferences Big 12, or ACC, goes away.
If we stay at 5 power conferences eventually the SEC, ACC, and Big 10 will all want to move to 16. If the ACC is to survive they will need a network eventually. They may choose at some point to try to expand their markets. Both Cincinnati and Connecticut would be logical selections for the ACC even if Notre Dame stays independent for football only. ACC survival is probably the best case scenario for Cincinnati inclusion.
If the Big 12 has to pick up two schools and none of the other power 5 are suffering losses then the best markets might be found in taking Brigham Young and perhaps South Florida (who has tremendous upside). Cincinnati could be a bridge to West Virginia but without Pitt the road is rockier and both USF and BYU have more upside market wise. West Virginia looks to be on an island unless the Big 12 is parsed out.
Even if we move to 4 power conferences with the ACC surviving this remains the best scenario for Cincinnati.
I really cant foresee too many possibilities for Cincinnati if the ACC goes.
Let's say the long assumed raid of the ACC happens. I believe both the SEC and Big 10 would find enough profit to move to a minimum of 18 a piece off of that break up. Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Florida State (or Miami), and Georgia Tech could all likely wind up in either the SEC or Big 10 in that event.
Syracuse, Boston College, Clemson, Louisville and most likely Miami instead of F.S.U., and possibly Wake Forest could all wind up in the Big 12. Connecticut might get a look here, but Louisville's inclusion in the Big 12 would almost certainly hurt any chance of Cincinnati's inclusion.
Right now the outlook favors both Cincinnati and Connecticut. No movement and the coming scheduling difficulties of 14 teams raise the prospect that 6 more schools may be selected to the upper tier if the status quo on the number of 5 conferences holds. The possible beneficiaries of this stalemate could be: Connecticut, Cincinnati, South Florida, Brigham Young, and also possibly but less likely, Houston, S.M.U., Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico, Tulane, and Colorado State. Of the latter Colorado State has one of the better markets to offer and Tulane would offer the Big 12 a new state and an AAU school or even a long shot academic fit for the ACC if they added two more.
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2013 03:58 PM by JRsec.)
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