PBitcoin down to around 52K. That was a level I was going to do some accumulating—but Im thinking it may be going even lower. Still—-this is not a bad entry point. That said, this unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade could hammer almost every asset class depending on how leveraged that trade had become. The problem is nobody really knows just how leveraged that trade has actually become. Its not out of the realm of possibility that the level of leverage is high enough to trigger a financial crisis.

(08-05-2024 12:32 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Bitcoin down to around 52K. That was a level I was going to do some accumulating—but Im thinking it may be going even lower. Still—-this is not a bad entry point. That said, this unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade could hammer almost every asset class depending on how leveraged that trade had become. The problem is nobody really knows just how leveraged that trade has actually become. Its not out of the deal of possibility that the level of leverage is high enough to trigger a financial crisis.

Volatility futures hit there highest level since June of 2020. A week ago this looked to be just a routine 10% correction but this is the big one for 2024. It might bottom and chop until after the presidential election.

As far as positioning with the market down this is a good time to convert to a roth 401k when the asset prices are low. Particularly if you are holding anything you want to hold onto. I put some volatility shorts on that are getting beaten up a little right now but will double when things calm down. Move when low to save taxes then write covered calls against the positions until they return in value.

It is getting even uglier today!!!!
Some cryptos are down 60%!!!!!

Most Crypto not backed by much of anything but demand? Who could ever foresee a crash there?

It's like the Asian bank crisis in the late 90's where their notes were not backed by anything but a bank's name.

So when is Kamala going to give us that press conference about Black Monday?

“a black swan is….a type of bird, you see? (Cackled)

“And we have to be aware of that everyday”

(08-05-2024 07:16 AM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  So when is Kamala going to give us that press conference about Black Monday?

“a black swan is….a type of bird, you see? (Cackled)

“And we have to be aware of that everyday”

"...and usually, they are black. Black is a color."

(08-05-2024 07:18 AM)TripleA Wrote:  

(08-05-2024 07:16 AM)BigTigerMike Wrote:  So when is Kamala going to give us that press conference about Black Monday?

“a black swan is….a type of bird, you see? (Cackled)

“And we have to be aware of that everyday”

"...and usually, they are black. Black is a color."

So, the stock market bubble has finally burst? Housing bubble not far behind, now. I'm sure it will get blamed on Trump and Republicans.

Dow futures is - 1300

(08-05-2024 07:28 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  So, the stock market bubble has finally burst? Housing bubble not far behind, now. I'm sure it will get blamed on Trump and Republicans.

remember #q2'24 + #perfectStorm? (that was ~1 yr. ago) .... yeah, you've been consistent as well ... I've long been seeing 'signs' pop up as they did pre '08...














y'all ain' seen shite, yet!

Dollar cost average people. Well, that and a proper asset allocation makes wild market swings someone else's problem.

(08-05-2024 07:38 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(08-05-2024 07:28 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  So, the stock market bubble has finally burst? Housing bubble not far behind, now. I'm sure it will get blamed on Trump and Republicans.

remember #q2'24 + #perfectStorm? (that was ~1 yr. ago) .... yeah, you've been consistent as well ... I've long been seeing 'signs' pop up as they did pre '08...


I'm a professional in the housing market. We've been wondering why it has taken so long. Lenders are allowing free third party money for closing costs and DPs just like in 2005-2008. Buyers have no skin in the game up front.











y'all ain' seen shite, yet!

(08-05-2024 08:16 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  

(08-05-2024 07:38 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  

(08-05-2024 07:28 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  So, the stock market bubble has finally burst? Housing bubble not far behind, now. I'm sure it will get blamed on Trump and Republicans.

remember #q2'24 + #perfectStorm? (that was ~1 yr. ago) .... yeah, you've been consistent as well ... I've long been seeing 'signs' pop up as they did pre '08...












y'all ain' seen shite, yet!

I'm a professional in the housing market. We've been wondering why it has taken so long. Lenders are allowed free third party money for closing costs and DOs just like in 2005-2008. Buyers have no skin in the game up front.

I call it the “Blurry effect” …

dow opens down 1100.

This is what you get with bad economic numbers coupled with inflation coupled with fake polls showing Kamala has a chance.

I don't worry about crap like this. I've got another 15-20 years before I'll retire. Just $pread it out over the 401K's. My ESOP typically smokes the stock market (15% cagr) anyway so I try to transfer a good amount into it each spring.

(08-05-2024 07:39 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Dollar cost average people. Well, that and a proper asset allocation makes wild market swings someone else's problem.

bingo.

(08-05-2024 08:36 AM)b2b Wrote:  I don't worry about crap like this. I've got another 15-20 years before I'll retire. Just $pread it out over the 401K's. The ESOP typically smokes the stock market (15% cagr).

I got 28. I turned off all notifications except quarterly reports on my 401k in 2021. I make any adjustments then and try not to think about it otherwise

I don't think we're going to crash. Too many variables - the Fed hasn't stepped in yet, and they will if things get really bad.