Below is the link to the poll. The first graphic that pops up is telling, and not in a good way for Harris. This is one reason why the other pollsters were literally laughing at these guys yesterday.

1. Their own poll shows Trump gettin 92% of the vote of the people who voted for him in 2020. While thats likely a low number, the disturbing number for democrats is that this poll shows Harris only getting 88% of the Biden* voters.

2. The poll shows Harris only getting 73% of the black vote. WHile this is likely a little high, even if it is 73%, thats a disaster number for democrats. The poll shows Trump with 19%, which is almost twwice what Trump got in 2020. in 2012, Obama got 97%, in 2016 Hillary got 93%, and in 2020 Biden got about 90%. So Harris sitting at 73% is extremely serious.


https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/...-this-data

(07-31-2024 03:52 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  

(07-31-2024 02:56 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(07-31-2024 02:45 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Wait that poll now has her up 11 in MI? C'mon.

I imagine she’s up 4-5 in MI and the others are probably accurate.

Online poll.

You and I could vote UC into the SEC with online polling.

The SEC you say?

(07-31-2024 03:57 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Below is the link to the poll. The first graphic that pops up is telling, and not in a good way for Harris. This is one reason why the other pollsters were literally laughing at these guys yesterday.

1. Their own poll shows Trump gettin 92% of the vote of the people who voted for him in 2020. While thats likely a low number, the disturbing number for democrats is that this poll shows Harris only getting 88% of the Biden* voters.

2. The poll shows Harris only getting 73% of the black vote. WHile this is likely a little high, even if it is 73%, thats a disaster number for democrats. The poll shows Trump with 19%, which is almost twwice what Trump got in 2020. in 2012, Obama got 97%, in 2016 Hillary got 93%, and in 2020 Biden got about 90%. So Harris sitting at 73% is extremely serious.


https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/...-this-data

The 18-34 demo is also 46-44 Kamala. If that age group is that close and Trump gets 17% of the black vote, this thing won’t even be close

Rasmussen poll just came out.
2,163 LIKELY Voters
49 Trump
44 Kamala
You know the internal polls are similar. Kamala is STILL not the nominee yet. This is the reason no VP has been chosen. When they choose a VP, they are stuck with what they have. Rasmussen was 1 of the few that got 2020 correct. Rasmussen and the Harris poll.
Trump up BIG in head to head.

(08-01-2024 11:55 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Rasmussen poll just came out.
2,163 LIKELY Voters
49 Trump
44 Kamala
You know the internal polls are similar. Kamala is STILL not the nominee yet. This is the reason no VP has been chosen. When they choose a VP, they are stuck with what they have. Rasmussen was 1 of the few that got 2020 correct. Rasmussen and the Harris poll.
Trump up BIG in head to head.

This is why I say Chicago 2024 will have echos of Chicago 1968.

Kamala didn't have Joe's back and she best watch her back.

(08-01-2024 11:55 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Rasmussen poll just came out.
2,163 LIKELY Voters
49 Trump
44 Kamala
You know the internal polls are similar. Kamala is STILL not the nominee yet. This is the reason no VP has been chosen. When they choose a VP, they are stuck with what they have. Rasmussen was 1 of the few that got 2020 correct. Rasmussen and the Harris poll.
Trump up BIG in head to head.

What's most telling about that poll and other polls I've seen is Trump very near 50% or above. That's huge.

Rasmussen is generally very good.

Can you believe any of these polls any more? Seriously?

They are trying to make an educated guess based on a sliver of information. This stuff was probably a lot more accurate/predictable before the internet, but with all the talking heads telling stories they want to tell rather than telling the actual story - who do you believe?

I am not even convinced that Kamala will get the official nomination yet. Until they that convention is over, I bet there are 3 or 4 other possibilities. Kamala is auditioning for the job - that is why IMO she is avoiding any situation where she and her people does not have 100% control of the exchange right now.

Strange thing about that Rasmussen poll that has Trump +5. Head to head is that it drops to only Trump +1 with Stein, West and Kennedy included.

Newest polling shows Kamela gaining ground incrementally everywhere. GA on the other hand has flipped pretty significantly.

I'm going to load up on all of those sporting goods and supplies type items that are going to be under attack next spring. Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. This is turning into a bad dream.

(08-02-2024 01:43 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Newest polling shows Kamela gaining ground incrementally everywhere. GA on the other hand has flipped pretty significantly.

I'm going to load up on all of those sporting goods and supplies type items that are going to be under attack next spring. Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. This is turning into a bad dream.

It's just a bounce. She'll get another after the convention. A debate and unscripted interviews should bring her back down.

Show me a poll where Kamala or any Dem is leading without polling 150-250 dems more than Reps

Skewed polling to frame a narrative. Honestly, folks like that should go to hell.

Fix is in.

(08-01-2024 03:22 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Strange thing about that Rasmussen poll that has Trump +5. Head to head is that it drops to only Trump +1 with Stein, West and Kennedy included.

I’m of the thought that Kennedy is pulling more voters from dems than trump. Kennedy has some extreme liberal views. On abortion in particular

(08-02-2024 01:43 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Newest polling shows Kamela gaining ground incrementally everywhere. GA on the other hand has flipped pretty significantly.

I'm going to load up on all of those sporting goods and supplies type items that are going to be under attack next spring. Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. This is turning into a bad dream.

Clearly a response bias in the polls. Democrats are excited that they won’t have to pull the lever for Biden after his failures.

Doesn’t mean that she’s on pace to win independents and hold the Biden WWC voters in the rust belt.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

(08-02-2024 02:06 PM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  Show me a poll where Kamala or any Dem is leading without polling 150-250 dems more than Reps

Skewed polling to frame a narrative. Honestly, folks like that should go to hell.

Fix is in.

It's worse than that. Left leaning pollsters (about 80% of the total) usually pick similar numbers of Dems, Repubs and Indys, but if they don't Dems always get the bigger sample.

But the REAL problem is the left leaning polls select independents in national polls from deep blue states, which skews all the national polls.

In specific state polls, not sure how that works.

(08-02-2024 01:43 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Newest polling shows Kamela gaining ground incrementally everywhere. GA on the other hand has flipped pretty significantly.

I'm going to load up on all of those sporting goods and supplies type items that are going to be under attack next spring. Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. This is turning into a bad dream.

Trump has no shot at GA. The black, female vote in Fulton county alone will be more than the total votes in the rest of the state.

(08-01-2024 03:22 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Strange thing about that Rasmussen poll that has Trump +5. Head to head is that it drops to only Trump +1 with Stein, West and Kennedy included.

You do remember it was the same with Kumswallow?
I think they are stuck with her. Thank goodness.

(08-02-2024 02:06 PM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  Show me a poll where Kamala or any Dem is leading without polling 150-250 dems more than Reps

Skewed polling to frame a narrative. Honestly, folks like that should go to hell.

Fix is in.

They are just adding in the cheat votes.

(08-02-2024 03:17 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 01:43 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Newest polling shows Kamela gaining ground incrementally everywhere. GA on the other hand has flipped pretty significantly.

I'm going to load up on all of those sporting goods and supplies type items that are going to be under attack next spring. Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. This is turning into a bad dream.

Trump has no shot at GA. The black, female vote in Fulton county alone will be more than the total votes in the rest of the state.

They control all of the polling stations in that area, too. Brian kemp and his team were complicit in letting everything slide in 2020.

(08-02-2024 03:49 PM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 03:17 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(08-02-2024 01:43 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Newest polling shows Kamela gaining ground incrementally everywhere. GA on the other hand has flipped pretty significantly.

I'm going to load up on all of those sporting goods and supplies type items that are going to be under attack next spring. Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. This is turning into a bad dream.

Trump has no shot at GA. The black, female vote in Fulton county alone will be more than the total votes in the rest of the state.

They control all of the polling stations in that area, too. Brian kemp and his team were complicit in letting everything slide in 2020.

From what I understand, Trump will have a lot of lawyers keeping a close eye on these suspect precincts. I hope that’s the case.