Honeymoon is over already. General Election Havard/Harris poll out today. Hardly a Right leaning poll.
Trump up 4 over Harris

(07-30-2024 10:24 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Honeymoon is over already. General Election Havard/Harris poll out today. Hardly a Right leaning poll.
Trump up 4 over Harris

Of note is that that poll has Trump at 52%.

Also, that poll has the Biden disapproval rating at +13, which is one of the best approval/disapproval numbers for Biden*. That means Trump's lead of +4 in this poll is more of the floor and not the ceiling amongst pollsters.

(07-30-2024 10:24 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Honeymoon is over already. General Election Havard/Harris poll out today. Hardly a Right leaning poll.
Trump up 4 over Harris

True.

Lou Harris was the pollster for JFK’s presidential campaign way back when, and also while he was in the White House. Very strong partisan Democrat in those days, then started doing public polls as a kind of counterbalance to the GOP-oriented Gallup polls. I don’t know who is running the shop nowadays, but if they’re connected with Harvard, I can probably guess.

(07-30-2024 10:43 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(07-30-2024 10:24 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Honeymoon is over already. General Election Havard/Harris poll out today. Hardly a Right leaning poll.
Trump up 4 over Harris

True.

Lou Harris was the pollster for JFK’s presidential campaign way back when, and also while he was in the White House. Very strong partisan Democrat in those days, then started doing public polls as a kind of counterbalance to the GOP-oriented Gallup polls. I don’t know who is running the shop nowadays, but if they’re connected with Harvard, I can probably guess.

mark penn ...
harvard alumnus ...
hrc's former campaign manager ...

SMART COOKIE

(07-29-2024 09:07 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  If Beshear were from a state that was at least somewhat “in play”, I think he’d have a great shot. But as it stands, all he can do is move Kentucky from Trump 70/30 to Trump 68/32. There are other White Dudes for Harris who can offer more than that.

Nope.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/...4001035477

WHAD YA KNOW

(07-30-2024 03:20 PM)green Wrote:  

(07-29-2024 09:07 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  If Beshear were from a state that was at least somewhat “in play”, I think he’d have a great shot. But as it stands, all he can do is move Kentucky from Trump 70/30 to Trump 68/32. There are other White Dudes for Harris who can offer more than that.

Nope.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/...4001035477

WHAD YA KNOW

The only positive for Beshear is that he is likely the only potential VP that wouldn't outshine or overshadow Kamala Harris. He's an empty vessel and since she needs someone worse than her, he may the one.

(07-30-2024 03:25 PM)WKUApollo Wrote:  

(07-30-2024 03:20 PM)green Wrote:  

(07-29-2024 09:07 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  If Beshear were from a state that was at least somewhat “in play”, I think he’d have a great shot. But as it stands, all he can do is move Kentucky from Trump 70/30 to Trump 68/32. There are other White Dudes for Harris who can offer more than that.

Nope.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/...4001035477

WHAD YA KNOW

The only positive for Beshear is that he is likely the only potential VP that wouldn't outshine or overshadow Kamala Harris. He's an empty vessel and since she needs someone worse than her, he may the one.

Exactly… he’s been pimping Kamala since before Joe quit. What a waste of air that guy is.

(07-27-2024 04:05 PM)green Wrote:  

(07-26-2024 07:20 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  The polls are much more even again. They were just trying to manipulate people so they could pull the plug on Biden.

God only knows what people are really thinking.

Trump winning the swing states +5 would not surprise me, Kamala winning them +5 wouldn't surprise me.

I can tell you it's not gonna be close. The polls are misleading you on that. The winner will win most of the swing states, maybe all of them.

HERE WE GO AGAIN

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/stat...0818339275

TO A PLACE WHERE BLIND MEN SEE

(07-30-2024 03:25 PM)WKUApollo Wrote:  

(07-30-2024 03:20 PM)green Wrote:  

(07-29-2024 09:07 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  If Beshear were from a state that was at least somewhat “in play”, I think he’d have a great shot. But as it stands, all he can do is move Kentucky from Trump 70/30 to Trump 68/32. There are other White Dudes for Harris who can offer more than that.

Nope.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/...4001035477

WHAD YA KNOW

The only positive for Beshear is that he is likely the only potential VP that wouldn't outshine or overshadow Kamala Harris. He's an empty vessel and since she needs someone worse than her, he may the one.

So, if he's selected the Dems are going for the dynamic idiot duo just like they did 4 years ago.

Like I suspected. This one is done. Kamala energized the D base in the big inner cities.

Harris takes massive lead over Trump in these four critical battleground states

Quote: The polling shows Harris with a whopping 11 point lead over Trump in the crucial state of Michigan. She also has a two point lead in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.

The race between Harris and Trump is now tied in Georgia. On Tuesday, the vice president received a huge welcome when more than 10,000 people showed up to her first rally as the presumptive presidential nominee in Atlanta.

The poll shows Trump with a two point lead in North Carolina, a state he won in 2020 as well as a four point lead in Pennsylvania.

Harris appears to be getting a boost in battleground states from a jump in enthusiasm in the presidential race among voters.

More than a third of voters in the seven swing states said they are more likely to vote in a race between Harris and Trump.

49 percent of black voters said they are much more likely to vote, 40 percent of Gen Z voters said they are more likely to vote and 44 percent of Hispanic voters said they are more likely to vote come November.

(07-31-2024 01:19 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  Like I suspected. This one is done. Kamala energized the D base in the big inner cities.

Harris takes massive lead over Trump in these four critical battleground states

Quote: The polling shows Harris with a whopping 11 point lead over Trump in the crucial state of Michigan. She also has a two point lead in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.

The race between Harris and Trump is now tied in Georgia. On Tuesday, the vice president received a huge welcome when more than 10,000 people showed up to her first rally as the presumptive presidential nominee in Atlanta.

The poll shows Trump with a two point lead in North Carolina, a state he won in 2020 as well as a four point lead in Pennsylvania.

Harris appears to be getting a boost in battleground states from a jump in enthusiasm in the presidential race among voters.

More than a third of voters in the seven swing states said they are more likely to vote in a race between Harris and Trump.

49 percent of black voters said they are much more likely to vote, 40 percent of Gen Z voters said they are more likely to vote and 44 percent of Hispanic voters said they are more likely to vote come November.

Based on a poll of 0.0004% of the population? I'll take my chances on the opinion of all the voters mm-kay.

Wait that poll now has her up 11 in MI? C'mon.

(07-31-2024 02:45 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Wait that poll now has her up 11 in MI? C'mon.

I imagine she’s up 4-5 in MI and the others are probably accurate.

(07-31-2024 02:45 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Wait that poll now has her up 11 in MI? C'mon.

It's just one poll...a Bloomberg poll.

Polling is extreme volatile right now,

Quote:A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged Donald Trump’s re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for Joe Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in ABC News/Washington Post polls in both states.

Biden leads Trump by 57-40 percent among likely voters in Wisconsin ...

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-MIWI.pdf

one week before election day 2020 ...
forfeiting all credibility ...
esteemed "news" organization only off by 16.4% ...
a gargantuan miss ...
in polling parlance ...
we call that an outLIEr ...
or just outright lying ...
word to the wise ...
believe me when I tell you ...

I'D NEVER DO YOU NO WRONG

(07-31-2024 03:22 PM)green Wrote:  

Quote:A surge in coronavirus cases has damaged Donald Trump’s re-election campaign in Wisconsin, with growing criticism of his work on the pandemic and preference for Joe Biden to handle it. Biden holds a slighter advantage in Michigan, with sizable leads among women, moderates and independents in ABC News/Washington Post polls in both states.

Biden leads Trump by 57-40 percent among likely voters in Wisconsin ...

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten...s-MIWI.pdf

one week before election day 2020 ...
forfeiting all credibility ...
esteemed "news" organization only off by 16.4% ...
a gargantuan miss ...
in polling parlance ...
we call that an outLIEr ...
or just outright lying ...
word to the wise ...
believe me when I tell you ...

I'D NEVER DO YOU NO WRONG

So much this.

(07-31-2024 01:19 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  Like I suspected. This one is done. Kamala energized the D base in the big inner cities.

Harris takes massive lead over Trump in these four critical battleground states

Quote: The polling shows Harris with a whopping 11 point lead over Trump in the crucial state of Michigan. She also has a two point lead in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.

The race between Harris and Trump is now tied in Georgia. On Tuesday, the vice president received a huge welcome when more than 10,000 people showed up to her first rally as the presumptive presidential nominee in Atlanta.

The poll shows Trump with a two point lead in North Carolina, a state he won in 2020 as well as a four point lead in Pennsylvania.

Harris appears to be getting a boost in battleground states from a jump in enthusiasm in the presidential race among voters.

More than a third of voters in the seven swing states said they are more likely to vote in a race between Harris and Trump.

49 percent of black voters said they are much more likely to vote, 40 percent of Gen Z voters said they are more likely to vote and 44 percent of Hispanic voters said they are more likely to vote come November.

Actual pollsters were putting these guys on full blast yesterday because their methodology was so hideously bad.

In summary, other pollsters are wanting this pollster to explain how Harris has these "leads" in battleground states, yet went backwards 2 points against Trump in their national poll as compared to the week prior. Yes, this poll showed Trump gaining 2 points on Harris this week versus last week, yet showed an enormous swing state shift to Harris. Unless Morning Consult is saying Trump now leads Harris in NY, this result literally isnt possible.

But, if dems want people thinking Harris is somehow surging, then having someone like Morning Consult to do their bidding is the way to go I guess. But this poll's scientific model smells about as good as living next to a hog farm where the animals have had a week of diarrhea.

(07-31-2024 03:39 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(07-31-2024 01:19 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  Like I suspected. This one is done. Kamala energized the D base in the big inner cities.

Harris takes massive lead over Trump in these four critical battleground states

Quote: The polling shows Harris with a whopping 11 point lead over Trump in the crucial state of Michigan. She also has a two point lead in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin.

The race between Harris and Trump is now tied in Georgia. On Tuesday, the vice president received a huge welcome when more than 10,000 people showed up to her first rally as the presumptive presidential nominee in Atlanta.

The poll shows Trump with a two point lead in North Carolina, a state he won in 2020 as well as a four point lead in Pennsylvania.

Harris appears to be getting a boost in battleground states from a jump in enthusiasm in the presidential race among voters.

More than a third of voters in the seven swing states said they are more likely to vote in a race between Harris and Trump.

49 percent of black voters said they are much more likely to vote, 40 percent of Gen Z voters said they are more likely to vote and 44 percent of Hispanic voters said they are more likely to vote come November.

Actual pollsters were putting these guys on full blast yesterday because their methodology was so hideously bad.

In summary, other pollsters are wanting this pollster to explain how Harris has these "leads" in battleground states, yet went backwards 2 points against Trump in their national poll as compared to the week prior. Yes, this poll showed Trump gaining 2 points on Harris this week versus last week, yet showed an enormous swing state shift to Harris. Unless Morning Consult is saying Trump now leads Harris in NY, this result literally isnt possible.

But, if dems want people thinking Harris is somehow surging, then having someone like Morning Consult to do their bidding is the way to go I guess. But this poll's scientific model smells about as good as living next to a hog farm where the animals have had a week of diarrhea.

+11 mi, -4 pa ...
statistically impossible ...
b/c this region ...
great lakes ...
upper midwest ...
blue wall ...
votes in unison ...
I call bullsh*t ...

BALLS & STRIKES

That was a Morning Consult/Bloomberg online poll. Garbage in garbage out

(07-31-2024 02:56 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  

(07-31-2024 02:45 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Wait that poll now has her up 11 in MI? C'mon.

I imagine she’s up 4-5 in MI and the others are probably accurate.

Online poll.

You and I could vote UC into the SEC with online polling.