(01-25-2024 06:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-25-2024 05:56 PM)TerpsvilleMayor Wrote:  

(01-22-2024 05:57 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

Under the current circumstance:

ESPN has the SEC, ACC and 60% of the Big 12's football, why would ESPN want to increase the SEC's overhead by $150 Million per year? AND why would the 16 teams of the SEC want to take a haircut just to dilute their "brand"?

While the speculation is fun, the unnecessary expansion of the SEC makes no sense.

BTW Vanderbilt may fit the ACC academically, but the depth and breadth of their athletic department offerings is well below ACC standards.

I agree with this. I just can't wrap my head around how FSU is valuable to the SEC other than to keep the Big Ten out of Florida. Unless the ESPN declines its 2027 option to renew the ACC contract, I don't see how ESPN would be motivated to pay more for the same property they already have for less. The SEC prides itself on the whole "all for one and one for all" thing, but even with ESPN paying more, FSU still isn't pro rata. Would the members take less just to keep Fox and the Big Ten out of Florida?

Meanwhile, Fox/Big Ten/FSU would likely be willing to pay whatever number ESPN/the ACC negotiate ($350M-$400M?). Fox and the B1G want in on the State of Florida and both parties want FSU in the Big Ten for that purpose. The Big Ten also has a slew of other strategic reasons to want FSU/to get into Florida (recruiting access, alumni access, etc.) FSU doesn't really move the needle in that way for the SEC.

I've thought a lot about FSU to the SEC and I just can't make it make sense.

First: This is X's tired mantra explained countless times.

Florida State is a content multiplier, as is Clemson. Games that draw 7 to 9 million viewers like the FSU / LSU week #1 game pay on average 7 million more to the network than games that draw 3 million or less, like most of the ACC games FSU will play against competition not known for their football prowess. If FSU played everyone in the ACC with any kind of football pull for viewers that slate would consist of top games like Clemson and Miami, almost top games like Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and the random game against Notre Dame.

In a year in which FSU played Notre Dame, Clemson and Miami (which just doesn't happen) they would have 3 very strong national draws and the game against Notre Dame has to be at Tallahassee or the ACC doesn't earn the revenue, NBC does.

So, there are 3 potential games for which they would earn the extra 7 million. They might earn an extra 5 million playing against the other 2. For that ESPN pays them around 40 million, or a little less.

In the SEC the top tier games would be against: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, L.S.U., Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Texas. The step-down games would be against Mississippi, Mississippi, Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina and Kentucky. The only game that would pay like an ACC game would be against Vanderbilt. If the SEC moves to a 9-conference game schedule, which they will if they move beyond 16 members, then odds are FSU will play 5 games against top tier competitors per year. That's 35 million dollars more revenue and most years 4 games against mid-tier competition, another 20 million over the ACC. When they play Vanderbilt in a season that would drop by 5 million. The cost of the move is 35 million. ESPN makes 20 million more from FSU in the SEC than in the ACC. And of course, they make nada if FSU is in the Big 10. Clemson is the only other brand ESPN can make as much from in a move to the SEC just on market command. There is no way in hell ESPN gives up those two properties to FOX and Big 10 without some serious consideration coming back to them in some form. So, for a 35-million-dollar investment they get a 55-million-dollar return. If you double the amount by adding Clemson as well what is your overhead? 70 million for the pair, not the full cost of an SEC contract because ESPN is paying the difference between the ACC and SEC, not the whole thing. So X's math is deliberately obtuse on that point. Four schools to the SEC from the ACC would increase Disney/ESPN's overhead by 140 million. X has 2 schools increasing it by 150 million.

Therefore, Clemson and FSU to the SEC can earn Disney 40 million more per year than they could in the ACC and that is after accounting for the increase in per school payout to an SEC level.

The math changes totally for a Virginia and North Carolina school to the SEC. There is no content multiplication for football value there. There is hoops value multiplied, but that's a fraction of the other. With those two it is the addition of a combined 20 million viewers (think of adding another state the size of Florida). They add to the SEC's bottom line, but not with T1 content value, but with market value.

There's your ball game and why they are valuable. And the overhead for those challenged in mathematics is 70 million not twice that (or X incorrectly stated 150 million), and the return is a +40 million on the pair.

Tired?

Starting to think FSU comes crawling back to the ACC. I expect a settlement or dismissal within a few months.

I'm new to this forum. PackPride for years.
Interesting conversation. Hope it starts up again.