(11-15-2023 08:29 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(11-11-2023 09:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-11-2023 09:13 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  If only FSU gets out of the ACC, then it's likely the path of least resistance -

FSU and Kansas to the SEC

ACC backfills with USF (AAU)

Big12 backfills with San Diego State

Why? The 4Cs have said repeatedly that they want recruiting in California.

UConn is another option, but I think they are happier in the BigEast, than San Diego State is, in the MWC.

And that's important because of how little the conference might want to pay an incoming school...

I believed that this scenario was very possible a couple of weeks ago. After the last court ruling, I think greater consolidation is coming, and fairly quickly. I also would not rule out 28 member conferences. 20 is profitable and doable. 24 happens if FOX and ESPN need inventory for OTA time slots which equal 12 games a Saturday since Big 10 and SEC brands max out the viewership.

All other conferences would be paid by the stream or utilized on off day telecasts. In that world Skyhawk there would be no compilation conference. In that world schools will opt out. And it would be more in the interest of the two major carriers to absorb 4 more schools each (2 extra games) than to only have four worthwhile schools in a tweener conference. It would be Super 2 only and that's where 28 still works and an upper tier of 56 would still likely be profitable enough and with better win / loss records so it could very likely work.

An equitable and profitable 4 x 18 is likely gone now. Twenty isn't enough to cover Saturday time slots needs across FOX 54, FS1, NBC, CBS and the BTN and neither would it be enough for ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, and the SECN. I think 24 each minimally, and possibly 28 depending upon how many want to comply with pay for play, NIL and collective bargaining.

In that scenario, I think for football (and maybe for all revenue sports), the concept of a "conference" falls by the wayside.

Schools will re-group up in smaller groups, or in the case of the top teams, solo independence.

It becomes a sales pitch.

How much money can I get alone

How much money can I get as part of a package of 3-6 teams.

Only the lower end are likely to package up in a dozen or so.

These new solo, or group, pitches will be heard and assessed by the media partners

No different than when we go to the store. Are we buying multiple bulk generic or the individual top name brands.

The media "partners" are likely to be looking at things similarly.

The Longhorn Network and BYU both say hi.

Skyhawk, probably the best way you could look at this would be like a mini-NFL, like what Coach Mack Brown said in my link, if I'm not mistaken. Rivalries are what drive college sports, IMO. The SEC can surprisingly put up with a crap-ton of stuff, so long as rivalries are not affected. In the SEC, teams cluster around their rivals, and even new rivalries can come about organically. You just can't force it. IMO, when the B1G took Penn State, they should have taken Pittsburgh too. More programming, and PSU can't complain as much. Same thing with Nebraska, IMO. The 'Huskers don't really have any rivals in the B1G, so they feel like they can relax some, and get away with it. Not so back when Nebraska played Oklahoma, IMO, and even Texas was a good foil for Nebraska also, IMO. The B1G sonewhat corrected this problem with Maryland and Johns Hopkins, but made another misfire with Rutgers. Could Penn State been the foil that Nebraska needed and vice versa?? It's possible, IMO, but they haven't played that much and not a whole lot was on the line when they did play. As for the newest adds, the B1G actually did pretty good and went back to basics instead of trying to force things that weren't there. I would have kept Penn State-Ohio State though. That was a good, organic rivalry, IMO.

(11-16-2023 12:52 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 08:29 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(11-11-2023 09:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-11-2023 09:13 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  If only FSU gets out of the ACC, then it's likely the path of least resistance -

FSU and Kansas to the SEC

ACC backfills with USF (AAU)

Big12 backfills with San Diego State

Why? The 4Cs have said repeatedly that they want recruiting in California.

UConn is another option, but I think they are happier in the BigEast, than San Diego State is, in the MWC.

And that's important because of how little the conference might want to pay an incoming school...

I believed that this scenario was very possible a couple of weeks ago. After the last court ruling, I think greater consolidation is coming, and fairly quickly. I also would not rule out 28 member conferences. 20 is profitable and doable. 24 happens if FOX and ESPN need inventory for OTA time slots which equal 12 games a Saturday since Big 10 and SEC brands max out the viewership.

All other conferences would be paid by the stream or utilized on off day telecasts. In that world Skyhawk there would be no compilation conference. In that world schools will opt out. And it would be more in the interest of the two major carriers to absorb 4 more schools each (2 extra games) than to only have four worthwhile schools in a tweener conference. It would be Super 2 only and that's where 28 still works and an upper tier of 56 would still likely be profitable enough and with better win / loss records so it could very likely work.

An equitable and profitable 4 x 18 is likely gone now. Twenty isn't enough to cover Saturday time slots needs across FOX 54, FS1, NBC, CBS and the BTN and neither would it be enough for ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, and the SECN. I think 24 each minimally, and possibly 28 depending upon how many want to comply with pay for play, NIL and collective bargaining.

In that scenario, I think for football (and maybe for all revenue sports), the concept of a "conference" falls by the wayside.

Schools will re-group up in smaller groups, or in the case of the top teams, solo independence.

It becomes a sales pitch.

How much money can I get alone

How much money can I get as part of a package of 3-6 teams.

Only the lower end are likely to package up in a dozen or so.

These new solo, or group, pitches will be heard and assessed by the media partners

No different than when we go to the store. Are we buying multiple bulk generic or the individual top name brands.

The media "partners" are likely to be looking at things similarly.

The Longhorn Network and BYU both say hi.

Skyhawk, probably the best way you could look at this would be like a mini-NFL, like what Coach Mack Brown said in my link, if I'm not mistaken. Rivalries are what drive college sports, IMO. The SEC can surprisingly put up with a crap-ton of stuff, so long as rivalries are not affected. In the SEC, teams cluster around their rivals, and even new rivalries can come about organically. You just can't force it. IMO, when the B1G took Penn State, they should have taken Pittsburgh too. More programming, and PSU can't complain as much. Same thing with Nebraska, IMO. The 'Huskers don't really have any rivals in the B1G, so they feel like they can relax some, and get away with it. Not so back when Nebraska played Oklahoma, IMO, and even Texas was a good foil for Nebraska also, IMO. The B1G sonewhat corrected this problem with Maryland and Johns Hopkins, but made another misfire with Rutgers. Could Penn State been the foil that Nebraska needed and vice versa?? It's possible, IMO, but they haven't played that much and not a whole lot was on the line when they did play. As for the newest adds, the B1G actually did pretty good and went back to basics instead of trying to force things that weren't there. I would have kept Penn State-Ohio State though. That was a good, organic rivalry, IMO.

I think I understand your point, but my response was directed towards JRsec's scenario.

In that world, creating what you call a "mini-nfl" is unlikely.

Why? Because espn and fox et al, are holding the dollars.

Do you think that there is any chance that they want to have schools be able to demand pay like the nfl can and does?

I think they'll try to avoid that as much as possible, while trying to maximize their revenue.

All that said, I agree and have said that rivalries are important.

But a school need not be in a conference to continue a rivalry.

Especially not in a new system/structure.

I think this would become "every school for itself", with the ones who feel that a group gets better negotiating power, banding together.

Hence - some solo, some in small groups, and some in larger groups, as I mentioned above.

But all this presumes a breakdown of the current system. And I'm not sure yet that that will happen. Schools don't seem to like change, and that would be rather big change.

(11-10-2023 02:24 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(10-27-2023 02:12 PM)ken d Wrote:  If the ACC loses only FSU, why not just stay at 16 for FB, 17 OS. Unless an add increases their average media revenue, what's the point?

Miami can't carry Florida by itself
USF would help carry the Tampa Bay area and look at adding UCF around 2030.

Interesting time line Mark.
The folks in South Bend have publicly complained about travel to Tallahassee, flying into Tampa would pose no problems for the Irish (or teams coming in from the west coast or Texas).

(11-27-2023 05:56 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(11-10-2023 02:24 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  

(10-27-2023 02:12 PM)ken d Wrote:  If the ACC loses only FSU, why not just stay at 16 for FB, 17 OS. Unless an add increases their average media revenue, what's the point?

Miami can't carry Florida by itself
USF would help carry the Tampa Bay area and look at adding UCF around 2030.

Interesting time line Mark.
The folks in South Bend have publicly complained about travel to Tallahassee, flying into Tampa would pose no problems for the Irish (or teams coming in from the west coast or Texas).

Tallahassee is not easy to get to...I don't think I've ever seen more than 1000 Cuse fans to FSU. We'd draw much more at USF back in BE days.

(10-24-2023 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 07:47 PM)Porcine Wrote:  3 divisions could be a problem.
West-Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M. Seems obvious.
Central-LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Tennessee, Vandy, Kentucky?
East-Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, FSU?

Arkansas, Kansas Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

(12-01-2023 03:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 07:47 PM)Porcine Wrote:  3 divisions could be a problem.
West-Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M. Seems obvious.
Central-LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Tennessee, Vandy, Kentucky?
East-Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, FSU?

Arkansas, Kansas Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

(12-01-2023 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 07:47 PM)Porcine Wrote:  3 divisions could be a problem.
West-Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M. Seems obvious.
Central-LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Tennessee, Vandy, Kentucky?
East-Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, FSU?

Arkansas, Kansas Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

Worked out?......Maybe.

If that's the case we could be looking at:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Tulane, SMU

Louisville, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Miami

(12-01-2023 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 07:47 PM)Porcine Wrote:  3 divisions could be a problem.
West-Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M. Seems obvious.
Central-LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Tennessee, Vandy, Kentucky?
East-Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, FSU?

Arkansas, Kansas Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

Worked out?......Maybe.

If that's the case we could be looking at:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Tulane, SMU

Louisville, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Miami

That would work at 18. I am assuming Clemson and FSU to the SEC.

(12-01-2023 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 07:47 PM)Porcine Wrote:  3 divisions could be a problem.
West-Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M. Seems obvious.
Central-LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Tennessee, Vandy, Kentucky?
East-Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, FSU?

Arkansas, Kansas Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

Worked out?......Maybe.

If that's the case we could be looking at:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Tulane, SMU

Louisville, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Miami

I assume you would allow ND to play only their 5 division games. But would you then allow them to play for the ACC championship? And how would you handle crossovers if the ND division only has five teams available to schedule?

(12-01-2023 08:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Arkansas, Kansas Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

Worked out?......Maybe.

If that's the case we could be looking at:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Tulane, SMU

Louisville, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Miami

That would work at 18. I am assuming Clemson and FSU to the SEC.

No, I just mis-counted.

I keep circling back to; there is now way that Kansas joins the SEC.....none!

The much more likely scenario would be:

Arkansas, Louisville, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky


with an 18 team ACC consisting of:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU

Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Tulane

(12-02-2023 09:37 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Arkansas, Kansas Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

Worked out?......Maybe.

If that's the case we could be looking at:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Tulane, SMU

Louisville, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Miami

I assume you would allow ND to play only their 5 division games. But would you then allow them to play for the ACC championship? And how would you handle crossovers if the ND division only has five teams available to schedule?

Ken, I'm not sure how the ACC will handle the transition of Notre Dame, but I expect that the Irish will be fully integrated into the ACC on or before the expiration of their new NBC contract.
When the rules that transition the playoffs from 12 to 16 teams (which will eliminate byes) are completed, Notre Dame will have to be a member of a conference to be able to participate.
The chaos of this years playoff selection will be the impetus.

(12-03-2023 08:12 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 08:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

Worked out?......Maybe.

If that's the case we could be looking at:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Tulane, SMU

Louisville, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Miami

That would work at 18. I am assuming Clemson and FSU to the SEC.

No, I just mis-counted.

I keep circling back to; there is now way that Kansas joins the SEC.....none!

The much more likely scenario would be:

Arkansas, Louisville, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky


with an 18 team ACC consisting of:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU

Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Tulane

While I think Louisville is a good move, if only 2 are moving, it's either FSU/Clemson, FSU/NC, or FSU/Kansas. FSU/Louisville is just less likely than all of those.

(12-03-2023 09:21 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 08:12 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 08:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

Worked out?......Maybe.

If that's the case we could be looking at:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Tulane, SMU

Louisville, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Miami

That would work at 18. I am assuming Clemson and FSU to the SEC.

No, I just mis-counted.

I keep circling back to; there is now way that Kansas joins the SEC.....none!

The much more likely scenario would be:

Arkansas, Louisville, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky


with an 18 team ACC consisting of:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU

Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Tulane

While I think Louisville is a good move, if only 2 are moving, it's either FSU/Clemson, FSU/NC, or FSU/Kansas. FSU/Louisville is just less likely than all of those.

I guess that's why we have these discussions.
The problem for the SEC is finding another team that wants to become cannon fodder and is willing to be that for money.
If, as in the original post FSU is the only ACC team to leave, perhaps the ACC abandons the idea of "Florida", and settles on just the State of Miami, and it is USF that joins Florida State in the SEC.

(12-03-2023 11:23 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 09:21 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 08:12 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 08:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 08:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  Worked out?......Maybe.

If that's the case we could be looking at:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Tulane, SMU

Louisville, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Miami

That would work at 18. I am assuming Clemson and FSU to the SEC.

No, I just mis-counted.

I keep circling back to; there is now way that Kansas joins the SEC.....none!

The much more likely scenario would be:

Arkansas, Louisville, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky


with an 18 team ACC consisting of:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU

Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Tulane

While I think Louisville is a good move, if only 2 are moving, it's either FSU/Clemson, FSU/NC, or FSU/Kansas. FSU/Louisville is just less likely than all of those.

I guess that's why we have these discussions.
The problem for the SEC is finding another team that wants to become cannon fodder and is willing to be that for money.
If, as in the original post FSU is the only ACC team to leave, perhaps the ACC abandons the idea of "Florida", and settles on just the State of Miami, and it is USF that joins Florida State in the SEC.

Oh, I think newly minted AAU USF is ACC backfill bound, whenever FSU leaves.

(12-03-2023 04:02 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 11:23 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 09:21 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 08:12 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 08:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  That would work at 18. I am assuming Clemson and FSU to the SEC.

No, I just mis-counted.

I keep circling back to; there is now way that Kansas joins the SEC.....none!

The much more likely scenario would be:

Arkansas, Louisville, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky


with an 18 team ACC consisting of:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU

Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Tulane

While I think Louisville is a good move, if only 2 are moving, it's either FSU/Clemson, FSU/NC, or FSU/Kansas. FSU/Louisville is just less likely than all of those.

I guess that's why we have these discussions.
The problem for the SEC is finding another team that wants to become cannon fodder and is willing to be that for money.
If, as in the original post FSU is the only ACC team to leave, perhaps the ACC abandons the idea of "Florida", and settles on just the State of Miami, and it is USF that joins Florida State in the SEC.

Oh, I think newly minted AAU USF is ACC backfill bound, whenever FSU leaves.

Maybe, maybe not.
The ACC could lose FSU and add back Notre Dame and Tulane.
Keep in mind that the ACCN income would not suffer because it only takes one school in a state to get max rate for that state, plus adding Tulane would actually increase ACCN revenue.

(12-03-2023 05:16 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 04:02 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 11:23 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 09:21 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 08:12 AM)XLance Wrote:  No, I just mis-counted.

I keep circling back to; there is now way that Kansas joins the SEC.....none!

The much more likely scenario would be:

Arkansas, Louisville, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky


with an 18 team ACC consisting of:

Stanford, California, Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College

UVa, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU

Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, NC State, USF, Tulane

While I think Louisville is a good move, if only 2 are moving, it's either FSU/Clemson, FSU/NC, or FSU/Kansas. FSU/Louisville is just less likely than all of those.

I guess that's why we have these discussions.
The problem for the SEC is finding another team that wants to become cannon fodder and is willing to be that for money.
If, as in the original post FSU is the only ACC team to leave, perhaps the ACC abandons the idea of "Florida", and settles on just the State of Miami, and it is USF that joins Florida State in the SEC.

Oh, I think newly minted AAU USF is ACC backfill bound, whenever FSU leaves.

Maybe, maybe not.
The ACC could lose FSU and add back Notre Dame and Tulane.
Keep in mind that the ACCN income would not suffer because it only takes one school in a state to get max rate for that state, plus adding Tulane would actually increase ACCN revenue.

ND is incredibly unlikely.

They have the deal they like. They have zero reason to have football join a conference.

Besides, if any school gets "swapped out", it's Tulane, rather than USF.

USF is just the obvious replacement for FSU. If done, I don't imagine any blowback at all about the choice. I don't expect schools' leadership to make the decision any more complicated than that.

Whereas Tulane could potentially be replaced by UConn, for example.

That said, based on markets, and other such stuff, I think Tulane has an edge over UConn for being chosen for backfill. There's a bit of overlap in market with BC for UConn, among other things.

And if ND has sway over picks (and it sounds like they do), I think Navy could very well potentially be in the mix as well.

(12-04-2023 07:02 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 05:16 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 04:02 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 11:23 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-03-2023 09:21 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  While I think Louisville is a good move, if only 2 are moving, it's either FSU/Clemson, FSU/NC, or FSU/Kansas. FSU/Louisville is just less likely than all of those.

I guess that's why we have these discussions.
The problem for the SEC is finding another team that wants to become cannon fodder and is willing to be that for money.
If, as in the original post FSU is the only ACC team to leave, perhaps the ACC abandons the idea of "Florida", and settles on just the State of Miami, and it is USF that joins Florida State in the SEC.

Oh, I think newly minted AAU USF is ACC backfill bound, whenever FSU leaves.

Maybe, maybe not.
The ACC could lose FSU and add back Notre Dame and Tulane.
Keep in mind that the ACCN income would not suffer because it only takes one school in a state to get max rate for that state, plus adding Tulane would actually increase ACCN revenue.

ND is incredibly unlikely.

They have the deal they like. They have zero reason to have football join a conference.

Besides, if any school gets "swapped out", it's Tulane, rather than USF.

USF is just the obvious replacement for FSU. If done, I don't imagine any blowback at all about the choice. I don't expect schools' leadership to make the decision any more complicated than that.

Whereas Tulane could potentially be replaced by UConn, for example.

That said, based on markets, and other such stuff, I think Tulane has an edge over UConn for being chosen for backfill. There's a bit of overlap in market with BC for UConn, among other things.

And if ND has sway over picks (and it sounds like they do), I think Navy could very well potentially be in the mix as well.

These ND fantasies continue, despite the Big Ten chasing them for over 30 years and Jim Phillips admitting that he has begged ND to join since he was hired.

All to no avail.

You summed it up. With a new, lucrative NBC deal and a 12 team playoff starting next year, ND has no reason at all to join a football conference.

How would joining the ACC for football benefit ND? The recent FSU playoff debacle further illustrates that ND made the right decision by staying independent.

I know that some people will write that the conferences will go to 9 or 10 games and freeze ND out, schedule-wise, but that is not deemed a credible threat by ND.

Its just the last ditch of the "ND needs to join a conference" guys after all of their previous hopes have been dashed.

Jack Swarbrick recently addressed this. He has zero fears about the schedule going forward.

(12-01-2023 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 07:47 PM)Porcine Wrote:  3 divisions could be a problem.
West-Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M. Seems obvious.
Central-LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Tennessee, Vandy, Kentucky?
East-Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, FSU?

Arkansas, Kansas Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

Under the current circumstance:

ESPN has the SEC, ACC and 60% of the Big 12's football, why would ESPN want to increase the SEC's overhead by $150 Million per year? AND why would the 16 teams of the SEC want to take a haircut just to dilute their "brand"?

While the speculation is fun, the unnecessary expansion of the SEC makes no sense.

BTW Vanderbilt may fit the ACC academically, but the depth and breadth of their athletic department offerings is well below ACC standards.

(01-22-2024 05:57 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 07:47 PM)Porcine Wrote:  3 divisions could be a problem.
West-Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M. Seems obvious.
Central-LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Tennessee, Vandy, Kentucky?
East-Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, FSU?

Arkansas, Kansas Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

Under the current circumstance:

ESPN has the SEC, ACC and 60% of the Big 12's football, why would ESPN want to increase the SEC's overhead by $150 Million per year? AND why would the 16 teams of the SEC want to take a haircut just to dilute their "brand"?

While the speculation is fun, the unnecessary expansion of the SEC makes no sense.

BTW Vanderbilt may fit the ACC academically, but the depth and breadth of their athletic department offerings is well below ACC standards.

I agree with this. I just can't wrap my head around how FSU is valuable to the SEC other than to keep the Big Ten out of Florida. Unless the ESPN declines its 2027 option to renew the ACC contract, I don't see how ESPN would be motivated to pay more for the same property they already have for less. The SEC prides itself on the whole "all for one and one for all" thing, but even with ESPN paying more, FSU still isn't pro rata. Would the members take less just to keep Fox and the Big Ten out of Florida?

Meanwhile, Fox/Big Ten/FSU would likely be willing to pay whatever number ESPN/the ACC negotiate ($350M-$400M?). Fox and the B1G want in on the State of Florida and both parties want FSU in the Big Ten for that purpose. The Big Ten also has a slew of other strategic reasons to want FSU/to get into Florida (recruiting access, alumni access, etc.) FSU doesn't really move the needle in that way for the SEC.

I've thought a lot about FSU to the SEC and I just can't make it make sense.

(01-25-2024 05:56 PM)TerpsvilleMayor Wrote:  

(01-22-2024 05:57 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:40 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 03:15 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(10-24-2023 08:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Arkansas, Kansas Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

What happens if ESPN and FOX can't agree to let Kansas go to the SEC?

Where can/will the SEC go to get #18?

I think that may already be worked out, but to entertain your hypothetical, perhaps Vanderbilt could go all but football, or consider a move your way. But I really don't think it's going to be an issue.

Under the current circumstance:

ESPN has the SEC, ACC and 60% of the Big 12's football, why would ESPN want to increase the SEC's overhead by $150 Million per year? AND why would the 16 teams of the SEC want to take a haircut just to dilute their "brand"?

While the speculation is fun, the unnecessary expansion of the SEC makes no sense.

BTW Vanderbilt may fit the ACC academically, but the depth and breadth of their athletic department offerings is well below ACC standards.

I agree with this. I just can't wrap my head around how FSU is valuable to the SEC other than to keep the Big Ten out of Florida. Unless the ESPN declines its 2027 option to renew the ACC contract, I don't see how ESPN would be motivated to pay more for the same property they already have for less. The SEC prides itself on the whole "all for one and one for all" thing, but even with ESPN paying more, FSU still isn't pro rata. Would the members take less just to keep Fox and the Big Ten out of Florida?

Meanwhile, Fox/Big Ten/FSU would likely be willing to pay whatever number ESPN/the ACC negotiate ($350M-$400M?). Fox and the B1G want in on the State of Florida and both parties want FSU in the Big Ten for that purpose. The Big Ten also has a slew of other strategic reasons to want FSU/to get into Florida (recruiting access, alumni access, etc.) FSU doesn't really move the needle in that way for the SEC.

I've thought a lot about FSU to the SEC and I just can't make it make sense.

First: This is X's tired mantra explained countless times.

Florida State is a content multiplier, as is Clemson. Games that draw 7 to 9 million viewers like the FSU / LSU week #1 game pay on average 7 million more to the network than games that draw 3 million or less, like most of the ACC games FSU will play against competition not known for their football prowess. If FSU played everyone in the ACC with any kind of football pull for viewers that slate would consist of top games like Clemson and Miami, almost top games like Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and the random game against Notre Dame.

In a year in which FSU played Notre Dame, Clemson and Miami (which just doesn't happen) they would have 3 very strong national draws and the game against Notre Dame has to be at Tallahassee or the ACC doesn't earn the revenue, NBC does.

So, there are 3 potential games for which they would earn the extra 7 million. They might earn an extra 5 million playing against the other 2. For that ESPN pays them around 40 million, or a little less.

In the SEC the top tier games would be against: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, L.S.U., Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Texas. The step-down games would be against Mississippi, Mississippi, Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina and Kentucky. The only game that would pay like an ACC game would be against Vanderbilt. If the SEC moves to a 9-conference game schedule, which they will if they move beyond 16 members, then odds are FSU will play 5 games against top tier competitors per year. That's 35 million dollars more revenue and most years 4 games against mid-tier competition, another 20 million over the ACC. When they play Vanderbilt in a season that would drop by 5 million. The cost of the move is 35 million. ESPN makes 20 million more from FSU in the SEC than in the ACC. And of course, they make nada if FSU is in the Big 10. Clemson is the only other brand ESPN can make as much from in a move to the SEC just on market command. There is no way in hell ESPN gives up those two properties to FOX and Big 10 without some serious consideration coming back to them in some form. So, for a 35-million-dollar investment they get a 55-million-dollar return. If you double the amount by adding Clemson as well what is your overhead? 70 million for the pair, not the full cost of an SEC contract because ESPN is paying the difference between the ACC and SEC, not the whole thing. So X's math is deliberately obtuse on that point. Four schools to the SEC from the ACC would increase Disney/ESPN's overhead by 140 million. X has 2 schools increasing it by 150 million.

Therefore, Clemson and FSU to the SEC can earn Disney 40 million more per year than they could in the ACC and that is after accounting for the increase in per school payout to an SEC level.

The math changes totally for a Virginia and North Carolina school to the SEC. There is no content multiplication for football value there. There is hoops value multiplied, but that's a fraction of the other. With those two it is the addition of a combined 20 million viewers (think of adding another state the size of Florida). They add to the SEC's bottom line, but not with T1 content value, but with market value.

There's your ball game and why they are valuable. And the overhead for those challenged in mathematics is 70 million not twice that (or X incorrectly stated 150 million), and the return is a +40 million on the pair.