If my records are accurate (please let me know if there are any errors or omissions - it wouldn't be the first time for that to happen) we now have our first 5 teams eligible for a bowl. They are:

Louisville
USC
Oklahoma
Michigan
Georgia

We could have as many as 18 more eligible after Week 7.

Florida State
UNC
Oregon or Washington
Oregon State
Kansas
Maryland
Ohio State
Penn State
Iowa
Kentucky or Missouri
Alabama
Air Force or Wyoming
Fresno State
Miami (O)
Ohio
Toledo
Notre Dame
Liberty

Three transitioning teams are ineligible:

Jacksonville State
Sam Houston State
James Madison

UMass is the only school facing bowl elimination this week (the play Penn State in Happy Valley).

Arizona State is ineligible due to being on probation.

Is it a 2 year wait for transitioning teams? This would be JMU's 2nd year in FBS, right?

(10-08-2023 10:41 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  Is it a 2 year wait for transitioning teams? This would be JMU's 2nd year in FBS, right?

All three are in their second year of eligibility and can only go to a bowl if there aren’t 82 that qualify.

(10-08-2023 08:32 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  Arizona State is ineligible due to being on probation.

I guess they picked a good year to be 1-5 with 6 PAC games still to play.

(10-08-2023 10:41 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  Is it a 2 year wait for transitioning teams? This would be JMU's 2nd year in FBS, right?

It takes a minimum of two years to complete the transition and after that, if the transition is successful, they are fully FBS and bowl eligible.

Normally, the first transition year is the last year playing as FCS (but FCS championship ineligible given that the transitional scholarship limits are higher than the FCS cap) and the second transition year is the first year playing as FBS, but bowl-ineligible unless there are too few bowl eligible teams to fill the bowl spots.

However, IIUC, James Madison elected to play an FBS schedule in its first transitional year. That doesn't reduce the two transition years. In the second year of its transition, if it gets six bowl counting wins, it comes onto the deck for filling bowl spots that don't have a bowl eligible school ... and in front of schools with five wins when they start allocating based on APR.

(10-08-2023 08:21 AM)ken d Wrote:  If my records are accurate (please let me know if there are any errors or omissions - it wouldn't be the first time for that to happen) we now have our first 5 teams eligible for a bowl. They are:

Louisville
USC
Oklahoma
Michigan
Georgia

We could have as many as 18 more eligible after Week 7.

Florida State
UNC
Oregon or Washington
Oregon State
Kansas
Maryland
Ohio State
Penn State
Iowa
Kentucky or Missouri
Alabama
Air Force or Wyoming
Fresno State
Miami (O)
Ohio
Toledo
Notre Dame
Liberty

Three transitioning teams are ineligible:

Jacksonville State
Sam Houston State
James Madison

UMass is the only school facing bowl elimination this week (the play Penn State in Happy Valley).

We can estimate the number of qualifiers if we assume that each team has a 50% chance of winning each remaining game.

SEC 11.01
B1G 10.44
BXII 10.36
SBC 10.33
ACC 10.30
PAC 9.32
AAC 7.76
MtW 7.07
MAC 5.97
CUSA 4.96
Ind 1.61

FBS 89.13

This would include JMU and Jax St who would be contingent if fewer than 82 schools qualify. It also includes any 6-7 schools.

It is likely somewhat high because it assumes that schools that are 2-4 will have a 50% chance of winning each remaining game. In essence, past performance does not predict future results, which is an erroneous assumption. It also assumes that both teams will win a game, or both will lose.

We now have 20 schools eligible after Week 7. At the same point in 2022 we had 16.

Florida State
Louisville
UNC

Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Iowa

Oklahoma

Oregon State
USC
Washington

Georgia
Missouri
Alabama

Miami (O)
Toledo

Air Force
Fresno State

Liberty

Notre Dame

5 are ineligible:

Arizona State (probation)
Jacksonville St (transition)
Sam Houston (transition)
James Madison (transition)
UMass (suckitude)
_

11 teams can become eligible this week (opponents in parentheses)

Duke (@Florida State)
Oregon (Washington State)
Utah (USC)
Texas (@Houston)
Rutgers (@Indiana)
Tennessee (Alabama)
Ole Miss (@Auburn)
Tulane (North Texas)
UNLV (Colorado State)
Ohio (Western Michigan)
Georgia State (@Louisiana)

Last year there were 27 eligible after Week 8. To match that, 7 need to win this week.

I see that you have UMass listed under "suckitude".

I presume this means they have been officially eliminated from bowl eligibility?

If so, it would be cool if you added this feature to your weekly list, teams that have "clinched" ineligibility, LOL. Though of course with the various waiting-list factors that might be hard to do.

The following have a chance to join the suckitude society Saturday:
Akron (@ Bowling Green)
Kent State (vs Buffalo)
Ball State (vs C. Michigan)
Nevada (@ San Diego St)

(10-16-2023 12:43 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I see that you have UMass listed under "suckitude".

I presume this means they have been officially eliminated from bowl eligibility?

If so, it would be cool if you added this feature to your weekly list, teams that have "clinched" ineligibility, LOL. Though of course with the various waiting-list factors that might be hard to do.

Let's just say I know Penn State is better than they usually are but we beat UMass 63-0??? I mean if Penn State played Wilkes University would the score be that bad?

(10-15-2023 01:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  We now have 20 schools eligible after Week 7. At the same point in 2022 we had 16.

Florida State
Louisville
UNC

Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Iowa

Oklahoma

Oregon State
USC
Washington

Georgia
Missouri
Alabama

Miami (O)
Toledo

Air Force
Fresno State

Liberty

Notre Dame

5 are ineligible:

Arizona State (probation)
Jacksonville St (transition)
Sam Houston (transition)
James Madison (transition)
UMass (suckitude)
_

Estimates of number of bowl-eligible teams if we assume a 50% chance of winning each remaining game:

BXII: 10.64
SEC: 10.59
S B: 10.33
ACC: 10.31
B1G: 10.17
PAC?: 9.33
AAC: 7.80
MtW: 7.08
MAC: 6.06
CUSA: 4.88
Ind: 1.45

FBS: 88.65

(no adjustments for transitioning, ineligble, two-FCS wins, or 13-game seasons).

Alternative: If all 5 and 4-win teams qualify, then 15 of 33 3-win teams have to win three more games to get to 82.

6 games between 3:3 teams that may decide which goes bowling:

Rice @ Tulsa
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic
Boston College @ Georgia Tech
Northwestern @ Nebraska
Appalachian State @ Old Dominion
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina

So far, Notre Dame is the only bowl eligible team with 2 losses. Rutgers (@Indiana) and Ohio (vs Western Michigan) could join them in that club this week. Both are favored.

(10-16-2023 12:43 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I see that you have UMass listed under "suckitude".

I presume this means they have been officially eliminated from bowl eligibility?

If so, it would be cool if you added this feature to your weekly list, teams that have "clinched" ineligibility, LOL. Though of course with the various waiting-list factors that might be hard to do.

To be fair to the Minutemen, they have played a decent schedule. Their opponents have a combined record of 35-18, and three of the seven have clinched bowl eligibility already.

Among the transitionals, Jax State and James Madison have both reached six wins and can go to a bowl if not enough qualify. With seven losses, Sam Houston has been eliminated.

Of those playing at Hawaii, only NMSU (5-3) is playing a 13th game, as is Hawaii (2-5). If either finish 6-7, where do they fit in? Are they fully qualified like everyone else or are they grouped with JSU/JMU? Or are they in between, behind the regular 6 game winners but ahead of the transitions.

I hope that question makes sense.

(10-19-2023 08:28 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  Among the transitionals, Jax State and James Madison have both reached six wins and can go to a bowl if not enough qualify. With seven losses, Sam Houston has been eliminated.

Of those playing at Hawaii, only NMSU (5-3) is playing a 13th game, as is Hawaii (2-5). If either finish 6-7, where do they fit in? Are they fully qualified like everyone else or are they grouped with JSU/JMU? Or are they in between, behind the regular 6 game winners but ahead of the transitions.

I hope that question makes sense.

The actual rule is the same as the number of wins greater than or equal to the number of losses (i.e. a winning record or at least .500). So 6-7 does not qualify (there is an exception for a 6-6 team that loses a CCG).

After that the priority is:

(1) Win against an FCS school that has not awarded 90% of the maximum number of scholarships over a two-year period. An win over a Pioneer League, Ivy League, or Georgetown does not count since they don't award scholarships. Theoretically, other FCS schools could fail to meet the 90% limit. Lindenwood and Stonehill do not have FBS opponents in 2023. This might because they are still ramping up their scholarships as they mover to DI, or perhaps just the effect of games scheduled year in advance.

It is probably pretty easy to maintain 90% of scholarships, since FCS can award partial scholarships. If a full scholarship leaves, they can bump up a partial to other players. If a school is paid $300,000 to play at a FBS school, that could easily fund 20 scholarships (instate tuition).

Oddly, NDSU, SDSU, Montana and Montana State don't have FBS opponents. This might be because a loss to an FCS school counts the same as a loss to an FBS school.

(2) Teams that play 13 games and finish 6-7 (this applies to NMSU and Hawai'i).

(3) Schools that are in final year of transition to FBS (JMU and Jax State)

(4) Schools that are 5-7, ranked by Academic Progress Rate (APR). Note an NMSU or Hawai'i can not use this if they finish 5-8.

There are 41 FBS bowl games, including the two CFP semifinals. Thus 82 teams can qualify. For JMU or Jax State to play, 81 or fewer FBS schools must qualify.

Last year there were a few teams that qualified via APR. If that happens this year JMU and Jax State would go instead.

The NCAA and the bowl committees likely control the number of bowls. They don't mind 6-6 SEC or B1G schools. But they don't want 5-7 MAC or CUSA schools qualifying based on APR.

APR goes as soon as players get paid

(10-16-2023 02:33 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  The following have a chance to join the suckitude society Saturday:
Akron (@ Bowling Green)
Kent State (vs Buffalo)
Ball State (vs C. Michigan)
Nevada (@ San Diego St)

Ok, I can agree with the label for teams that accumulate their 7th loss before Halloween.

But as November Saturdays pass, those teams accumulating 7 losses may just be “meh” or challenged by a tough schedule.

(10-08-2023 10:41 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  Is it a 2 year wait for transitioning teams? This would be JMU's 2nd year in FBS, right?

People get confused about JMU's situation because we opted to play our first transition year in FBS rather than FCS. The rules require a transitioning team to play its second year in FBS, but are silent on which subdivision a team must play in during the first year.

Of the 21 schools that have transitioned to FBS since the 2-year rule went into effect, only JMU and UConn opted to play the first year in FBS (Though UConn's year 1 schedule would not have qualified them for FBS status under current scheduling rules. They were technically FBS, but played a hybrid FCS/FBS schedule). JMU was the first school to go full FBS in year 1.

This creates some confusion for a lot of people who think we're a year ahead of JSU or SHSU. In reality we're both in the same spot this year as far as the NCAA is concerned.