RE: Bowl Eligibility Thread
Available Bowl Spots: 82
Currently eligible: 51, plus James Madison and Jacksonville State contingently eligible
Minimum possible: 56, plus JMU and Jax State
Maximum possible: 105, plus JMU and Jax State
Mean expectation based on ESPN FPI: 76.72 plus JMU and Jax State
This would leave room for JMU and Jax State, plus 3 schools based on APR
But the mean expectation is just an average. It can be larger or smaller. If we flip three coins, the mean expectation is 1.5 heads. It can be greater or less. It will never be 1.5 heads.
There are 17 schools that are 5-4, which need one more win to be bowl eligible. ESPN FPI predicts 10 of these schools will have 6 or more wins. If we consider these 10 to be locks that would make 61 bowl eligible. The other 7 are predicted to have between 5 and six wins.
There are 24 schools that are 4-5, which need two more wins to be bowl eligible. Four are expected to have 6 or more wins, and we will count them as locks, giving us 65 bowl eligible. Five are expected to win 5 or less, and we can discount. The other 15 are expected to have between 5 and 6 wins.
ESPN FPI expects 1.25 of the 19 3-6 teams will get six wins. All are longshots, with the most likely UAB 24%, Arkansas 24%, and CSU 20%. So let's assume one more bowl eligible team from among these 19 schools.
So with 66 "locks" there are 16 openings available, with 21 teams in the range of 5 to 6, exclusive. Some of these will get 6 wins, and some will get 5. Overall ESPN expects that 12, on average, will get 6 wins, leaving 4 openings, including two for JMU and Jax State.
If we flipped 21 coins, with heads meaning a team gets 6 wins, and tails 5 wins, there is a 2.6% chance of 16 or more heads, which would leave both JMU and Jax State out. There is 6.7% chance of 15 or more heads. This would likely leave Jax State out (the bowls would get to choose which, and they would certainly take JMU).
There may be a motivation factor. A 5-6 team playing for a bowl berth, especially if they have not been a regular, is going to be more motivated than a 4-7 team where the players are eager to enter the transfer portal or find out who their new coach will be. They may even have an advantage over a 7-4 team, where many starters are being rested to get over nagging injuries, and the coach wants to give potential starters for next year some actual playing time.
On the other hand, those coin flips were not wholly independent. In some case, two 5-6 schools will be playing one another, and only one can win.
If you want JMU and Jax State to be bowling, root against 4-5 teams this weekend.
American
4 eligible: Tulane, Memphis, SMU, UTSA
1 out: East Carolina. Loser of Temple-UAB and North Texas-Tulsa are out.
Minimum possible: 4
Maximum possible: 11
Likely (ESPN FPI): 5.94
Odds: USF 59%, Rice 55%, FAU 43%, UAB 24%, Navy 7%, Charlotte 3%, UNT 2%, Tulsa 1%, Temple 0.5%.
ACC
7 eligible: FSU, Louisville, UNC, Miami(FL), Boston College, Duke, NC State
2 out: Pitt, Virginia
Minimum possible: 8, winner of Clemson-Georgia Tech is in
Maximum possible: 12
Likely (ESPN FPI): 9.97
Odds: Clemson 97%, Georgia Tech 70%, Syracuse 55%, Virginia Tech 54%, Wake Forest 20%
Big XII
6 eligible: Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, K-State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
1 out: Cincinnati
Minimum possible: 7, winner of BYU-Iowa State) is in
Maximum possible: 13
Likely (ESPN FPI): 8.78
Odds: Iowa State 72%, UCF 58%, BYU 52%, Texas Tech 35%, Houston 31%, TCU 30%, Baylor 0.2%
B1G 10
5 eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Rutgers
1 Out: Purdue
Minimum possible: 7, at least 2 of Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin are in
Maximum possible: 12, loser of Indiana-Michigan State is out.
Likely (ESPN FPI): 9.14
Odds: Wisconsin 98%, Maryland 79%, Nebraska 74%, Minnesota 71%, Illinois 31%, Northwestern 27%, Indiana 9%, Michigan State 0.0%+
CUSA
2 eligible*: Liberty, Jacksonville State(*transitioning), New Mexico State
4 out: Sam Houston, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, UTEP
Minimum possible: 2* (2 plus Jacksonville State)
Maximum possible: 4* (4 plus Jacksonville State)
Likely (ESPN FPI): 3.04* fully eligible plus Jacksonville State
Odds: Western Kentucky 99.2%, FIU 5%
Independent
1 eligible: Notre Dame
3 out: Army*, UConn, UMass (*Army would have two FCS wins if they have 6 total)
Minimum possible: 1
Maximum possible: 1
Likely (ESPN FPI): 1.00 (ESPN gives Army 17% chance of 6 wins)
Odds: None can qualify
MAC
Prior to this week's midweek MACtion.
3 eligible: Toledo, Miami (OH), Ohio
3 out: Akron, Kent, Ball State
Minimum possible: 3
Maximum possible: 9
Likely (ESPN FPI): 5.89
Odds: Bowling Green 92%, Northern Illinois 84%, Central Michigan 66%, Eastern Michigan 32%, Western Michigan 10%, Buffalo 4%
Mountain West
3 eligible: Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Wyoming
1 out: Nevada, Hawai'i at best 6-7
Minimum Possible: 4
Maximum Possible: 9*, loser of Colorado State-San Diego State is out, one of Boise State,, Utah State, and New Mexico is out. In best case scenario, Hawaii is 9th team with a 6-7 record.
Likely (ESPN FPI): 6.36
Odds: Boise State 78%, Utah State 74%, San Jose State 62%, Colorado State 20%, San Diego State 2%, Hawai'i 1% (6-7), New Mexico 0.2%,
PAC-12
7 eligible: Washington, Oregon, USC, Oregon State, Utah, UCLA, Arizona
1 out: Arizona State
Minimum Possible: 7
Maximum Possible: 10, loser of Cal-Stanford is out
Likely (ESPN FPI): 7.58
Odds: Washington State 27%, Colorado 19%, Cal 12%, Stanford 0.1%
SEC
7 eligible: Georgia, Missouri, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky
1 out: Vanderbilt
Minimum Possible: 7
Maximum Possible: 13
Likely (ESPN FPI): 10.07
Odds: Texas A&M 99.9%, Auburn 96%, Florida 47%, Mississippi State 26%, Arkansas 24%, South Carolina 14%,
Sun Belt
5* eligible: James Madison (*transitioning), Georgia State, Troy, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, Texas State
2 out: Southern Miss, Louisiana-Monroe
Minimum Possible: 6* (at least one of Arkansas State, Marshall, South Alabama is in
Maximum Possible: 11*
Likely (ESPN FPI): 8.95* fully eligible plus James Madison
Odds: Louisiana 98%, South Alabama 82%, Appalachian State 81%, Arkansas State 61%, Marshall 51%, Old Dominion 21%,
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Bowl Eligibility Thread
