(10-20-2023 08:36 AM)We Are the Dukes of JMU Wrote:  

(10-08-2023 10:41 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  Is it a 2 year wait for transitioning teams? This would be JMU's 2nd year in FBS, right?

People get confused about JMU's situation because we opted to play our first transition year in FBS rather than FCS. The rules require a transitioning team to play its second year in FBS, but are silent on which subdivision a team must play in during the first year.

Of the 21 schools that have transitioned to FBS since the 2-year rule went into effect, only JMU and UConn opted to play the first year in FBS (Though UConn's year 1 schedule would not have qualified them for FBS status under current scheduling rules. They were technically FBS, but played a hybrid FCS/FBS schedule). JMU was the first school to go full FBS in year 1.

This creates some confusion for a lot of people who think we're a year ahead of JSU or SHSU. In reality we're both in the same spot this year as far as the NCAA is concerned.

Good explanation. Thanks.

This week, Nevada staved off elimination from bowl eligibility by beating San Diego State 6-0. In Week 9 they get another chance at futility as they host New Mexico. Six other schools face elimination this week:

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
East Carolina @ UT San Antonio
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
UTEP @ Sam Houston
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State
UConn @ Boston College

As many as 17 can become eligible this week. Only two games are sure to crown one of them: Tennessee @ Kentucky, and Troy @ Texas State.

29 schools are now eligible, compared to 27 last year, while 7 are ineligible (barring waivers) compared with 3 in 2022.

Last year after Week 9, 36 teams had achieved eligibility, and 10 had been eliminated.

NOTE: I am currently listing New Mexico State, currently 5-3, as bowl eligible if they get one more FBS win. But they will play 13 regular season games as they played at Hawaii. If they finish 6-7, does anyone know definitively if they will be automatically eligible, or do they need a waiver in that case?

(10-22-2023 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  This week, Nevada staved off elimination from bowl eligibility by beating San Diego State 6-0. In Week 9 they get another chance at futility as they host New Mexico. Six other schools face elimination this week:

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
East Carolina @ UT San Antonio
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
UTEP @ Sam Houston
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State
UConn @ Boston College

As many as 17 can become eligible this week. Only two games are sure to crown one of them: Tennessee @ Kentucky, and Troy @ Texas State.

29 schools are now eligible, compared to 27 last year, while 7 are ineligible (barring waivers) compared with 3 in 2022.

Last year after Week 9, 36 teams had achieved eligibility, and 10 had been eliminated.

NOTE: I am currently listing New Mexico State, currently 5-3, as bowl eligible if they get one more FBS win. But they will play 13 regular season games as they played at Hawaii. If they finish 6-7, does anyone know definitively if they will be automatically eligible, or do they need a waiver in that case?

I’m counting 30 eligible right now. Here is my list.

Oklahoma
Georgia
Louisville
Michigan
USC
Liberty
Florida St
Ohio St
Alabama
Toledo

Fresno State
Penn State
Miami (OH)
Washington
Iowa
North Carolina
Missouri
Air Force
Notre Dame
Oregon State

Rutgers
Ohio
Tulane
Oregon
Texas
UNLV
Mississippi
Utah
Georgia State
LSU

Is one of mine wrong?

Army will be eliminated with one more loss. They are playing two FCS games so only one of them counts towards six wins.

(10-22-2023 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  This week, Nevada staved off elimination from bowl eligibility by beating San Diego State 6-0. In Week 9 they get another chance at futility as they host New Mexico. Six other schools face elimination this week:

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
East Carolina @ UT San Antonio
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
UTEP @ Sam Houston
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State
UConn @ Boston College

As many as 17 can become eligible this week. Only two games are sure to crown one of them: Tennessee @ Kentucky, and Troy @ Texas State.

29 schools are now eligible, compared to 27 last year, while 7 are ineligible (barring waivers) compared with 3 in 2022.

Last year after Week 9, 36 teams had achieved eligibility, and 10 had been eliminated.

NOTE: I am currently listing New Mexico State, currently 5-3, as bowl eligible if they get one more FBS win. But they will play 13 regular season games as they played at Hawaii. If they finish 6-7, does anyone know definitively if they will be automatically eligible, or do they need a waiver in that case?

Here's the official rule from the NCAA:

"An eligible team is defined as one that has won a number of games against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents that is equal to or greater than the number of its overall losses (e.g., a record of 6-6, or better). Ties or forfeited games do not count in determining won-lost record."

There are a few exceptions. For example, a loss in your conference championship game does not count against your record.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/artic...games-work

From the above New Mexico State would have to win 7 games to be bowl eligible. In the case of a waiver if they finish the season at 6-7 they would behind both JMU and Jacksonville State

(10-22-2023 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  This week, Nevada staved off elimination from bowl eligibility by beating San Diego State 6-0. In Week 9 they get another chance at futility as they host New Mexico. Six other schools face elimination this week:

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
East Carolina @ UT San Antonio
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
UTEP @ Sam Houston
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State
UConn @ Boston College

As many as 17 can become eligible this week. Only two games are sure to crown one of them: Tennessee @ Kentucky, and Troy @ Texas State.

29 schools are now eligible, compared to 27 last year, while 7 are ineligible (barring waivers) compared with 3 in 2022.

Last year after Week 9, 36 teams had achieved eligibility, and 10 had been eliminated.

NOTE: I am currently listing New Mexico State, currently 5-3, as bowl eligible if they get one more FBS win. But they will play 13 regular season games as they played at Hawaii. If they finish 6-7, does anyone know definitively if they will be automatically eligible, or do they need a waiver in that case?

The actual rule is number of wins greater than equal to the number of losses, so a 6-7 team is not automatically qualified.

However, a team that is 6-6 but loses a CCG is still eligible.

A 6-7 team is eligible if there are not enough 6-6 teams. 6-7 teams will fall behind transitioning (e.g. James Madison and Jax State), but ahead of 5-7 schools with high Academic Progress Rate (APR).

So NMSU should try to get 7 wins, or hope that only 79 schools (other than JMU and Jax State) get 6 or more wins.

(10-22-2023 01:23 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  This week, Nevada staved off elimination from bowl eligibility by beating San Diego State 6-0. In Week 9 they get another chance at futility as they host New Mexico. Six other schools face elimination this week:

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
East Carolina @ UT San Antonio
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
UTEP @ Sam Houston
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State
UConn @ Boston College

As many as 17 can become eligible this week. Only two games are sure to crown one of them: Tennessee @ Kentucky, and Troy @ Texas State.

29 schools are now eligible, compared to 27 last year, while 7 are ineligible (barring waivers) compared with 3 in 2022.

Last year after Week 9, 36 teams had achieved eligibility, and 10 had been eliminated.

NOTE: I am currently listing New Mexico State, currently 5-3, as bowl eligible if they get one more FBS win. But they will play 13 regular season games as they played at Hawaii. If they finish 6-7, does anyone know definitively if they will be automatically eligible, or do they need a waiver in that case?

I’m counting 30 eligible right now. Here is my list.

Oklahoma
Georgia
Louisville
Michigan
USC
Liberty
Florida St
Ohio St
Alabama
Toledo

Fresno State
Penn State
Miami (OH)
Washington
Iowa
North Carolina
Missouri
Air Force
Notre Dame
Oregon State

Rutgers
Ohio
Tulane
Oregon
Texas
UNLV
Mississippi
Utah
Georgia State
LSU

Is one of mine wrong?

You are correct. I missed them because they are idle this week. There are 30. Thanks for catching that.

(10-22-2023 01:26 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  Army will be eliminated with one more loss. They are playing two FCS games so only one of them counts towards six wins.

Good catch. While they only have 1 FCS win to date, they still have Holy Cross left on the schedule. Lucky for them they have UMass this week. While not a sure thing, that's certainly a winnable game.

(10-22-2023 06:39 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  This week, Nevada staved off elimination from bowl eligibility by beating San Diego State 6-0. In Week 9 they get another chance at futility as they host New Mexico. Six other schools face elimination this week:

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
East Carolina @ UT San Antonio
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
UTEP @ Sam Houston
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State
UConn @ Boston College

As many as 17 can become eligible this week. Only two games are sure to crown one of them: Tennessee @ Kentucky, and Troy @ Texas State.

29 schools are now eligible, compared to 27 last year, while 7 are ineligible (barring waivers) compared with 3 in 2022.

Last year after Week 9, 36 teams had achieved eligibility, and 10 had been eliminated.

NOTE: I am currently listing New Mexico State, currently 5-3, as bowl eligible if they get one more FBS win. But they will play 13 regular season games as they played at Hawaii. If they finish 6-7, does anyone know definitively if they will be automatically eligible, or do they need a waiver in that case?

The actual rule is number of wins greater than equal to the number of losses, so a 6-7 team is not automatically qualified.

However, a team that is 6-6 but loses a CCG is still eligible.

A 6-7 team is eligible if there are not enough 6-6 teams. 6-7 teams will fall behind transitioning (e.g. James Madison and Jax State), but ahead of 5-7 schools with high Academic Progress Rate (APR).

So NMSU should try to get 7 wins, or hope that only 79 schools (other than JMU and Jax State) get 6 or more wins.

Thanks to you and Valley Boy for clarifying that.

(10-22-2023 01:48 PM)ValleyBoy Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  This week, Nevada staved off elimination from bowl eligibility by beating San Diego State 6-0. In Week 9 they get another chance at futility as they host New Mexico. Six other schools face elimination this week:

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
East Carolina @ UT San Antonio
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
UTEP @ Sam Houston
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State
UConn @ Boston College

As many as 17 can become eligible this week. Only two games are sure to crown one of them: Tennessee @ Kentucky, and Troy @ Texas State.

29 schools are now eligible, compared to 27 last year, while 7 are ineligible (barring waivers) compared with 3 in 2022.

Last year after Week 9, 36 teams had achieved eligibility, and 10 had been eliminated.

NOTE: I am currently listing New Mexico State, currently 5-3, as bowl eligible if they get one more FBS win. But they will play 13 regular season games as they played at Hawaii. If they finish 6-7, does anyone know definitively if they will be automatically eligible, or do they need a waiver in that case?

Here's the official rule from the NCAA:

"An eligible team is defined as one that has won a number of games against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents that is equal to or greater than the number of its overall losses (e.g., a record of 6-6, or better). Ties or forfeited games do not count in determining won-lost record."

There are a few exceptions. For example, a loss in your conference championship game does not count against your record.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/artic...games-work

From the above New Mexico State would have to win 7 games to be bowl eligible. In the case of a waiver if they finish the season at 6-7 they would behind both JMU and Jacksonville State

Then only 16 teams can become eligible this week. NMSU will have to wait at least one more week.

In an odd twist of fate, Jax State travels to NMSU to end the season. It would be something if NMSU went into the game at 6-6 with a potential bowl spot on the line for both teams.

(10-22-2023 07:25 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  In an odd twist of fate, Jax State travels to NMSU to end the season. It would be something if NMSU went into the game at 6-6 with a potential bowl spot on the line for both teams.

That is odd. If Jax were to win that game, they would be 7-5 ( they already have their 6 qualifying wins) and likely behind only James Madison for a spot if there aren't enough teams eligible the old fashioned way.

Well, if we lost to 6-6 NMSU, they’d be above us in the pecking order even if we were 9-3.

(10-22-2023 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  This week, Nevada staved off elimination from bowl eligibility by beating San Diego State 6-0. In Week 9 they get another chance at futility as they host New Mexico. Six other schools face elimination this week:

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
East Carolina @ UT San Antonio
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
UTEP @ Sam Houston
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State
UConn @ Boston College

As many as 17 can become eligible this week. Only two games are sure to crown one of them: Tennessee @ Kentucky, and Troy @ Texas State.

29 schools are now eligible, compared to 27 last year, while 7 are ineligible (barring waivers) compared with 3 in 2022.

Last year after Week 9, 36 teams had achieved eligibility, and 10 had been eliminated.

NOTE: I am currently listing New Mexico State, currently 5-3, as bowl eligible if they get one more FBS win. But they will play 13 regular season games as they played at Hawaii. If they finish 6-7, does anyone know definitively if they will be automatically eligible, or do they need a waiver in that case?

If we assume teams will win 50% of their remaining games, the mean probability of bowl-eligible teams is 86.53 which would mean JMU and Jax State are left out.

ACC 10.38 (FSU, UNC, Louisville, Duke, Miami(FL), Clemson, Syracuse, NC State, Wake Forest, Boston College)

SEC 10.34 (Georgia, Missouri, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Texas A&M, Mississippi State)

BXII 10.19 (Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, BYU, K-State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Iowa State, TCU, and 1 of UCF, Houston, and Byalor)

Sun Belt 10.19 (James Madison, Georgia State, Texas State, Troy, Georgia Southern, Marshall, Louisiana, South Alabama, Old Dominion, Coastal Carolina)

B1G 9.94 (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern)

Pac-12 9.13 (Washington, Oregon State, Oregon, Utah, USC, UCLA, WSU, Colorado, Arizona)

AAC 7.59 (Tulane, Memphis, SMU, Rice, UTSA, USF, and 2 of North Texas, Navy, Florida Atlantic, and Tulsa)

Mountain West 6.50 (AFA, Fresno State, UNLV, Wyoming, and 3 of CSU, Boise State, New Mexico, Utah State, San Diego State, San Jose State)

MAC 6.13 (Toledo, Miami(OH), Ohio, and 3 of CMU, EMU, Bowling Green, and Northern Illinois)

CUSA 4.88 (Liberty, Jax State, NMSU, Western Kentucky, FIU)

Independent 1.22 (Notre Dame)

Previous performance is a good predictor of future performance. Teams that had won five games were 10-2 (0.833) in Week 8.

5 wins: 10-2 0.833
4 wins: 10-9 0.526
3 wins: 14-16 0.467
2 wins: 4-15 0.211
1 win: 3-6 0.333

If we use these performances as a prediction, the estimated number of bowl-eligible games is reduced to 85.52. Teams that have 5 wins are almost automatic, but they were likely to win once in four or five games even if they only had a 50% chance.

Teams that have two wins were long shots and are now almost no chance.

By conference:

ACC 10.31
S B 10.31
SEC 10.22
BXII 10.08
B1G 9.49
PAC 9.10
AAC 7.26
MAC 6.17
MtW 6.11
CUSA 4.88
Ind 1.01

UNLV is bowl eligible for the first time since 2013 after beating Colorado State, 25-23. They are 6-1 with one week left in October. They actually have a chance to make the MWC CCG and win the conference.

(10-22-2023 01:23 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  This week, Nevada staved off elimination from bowl eligibility by beating San Diego State 6-0. In Week 9 they get another chance at futility as they host New Mexico. Six other schools face elimination this week:

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
East Carolina @ UT San Antonio
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
UTEP @ Sam Houston
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State
UConn @ Boston College

As many as 17 can become eligible this week. Only two games are sure to crown one of them: Tennessee @ Kentucky, and Troy @ Texas State.

29 schools are now eligible, compared to 27 last year, while 7 are ineligible (barring waivers) compared with 3 in 2022.

Last year after Week 9, 36 teams had achieved eligibility, and 10 had been eliminated.

NOTE: I am currently listing New Mexico State, currently 5-3, as bowl eligible if they get one more FBS win. But they will play 13 regular season games as they played at Hawaii. If they finish 6-7, does anyone know definitively if they will be automatically eligible, or do they need a waiver in that case?

I’m counting 30 eligible right now. Here is my list.

Oklahoma
Georgia
Louisville
Michigan
USC
Liberty
Florida St
Ohio St
Alabama
Toledo

Fresno State
Penn State
Miami (OH)
Washington
Iowa
North Carolina
Missouri
Air Force
Notre Dame
Oregon State

Rutgers
Ohio
Tulane
Oregon
Texas
UNLV
Mississippi
Utah
Georgia State
LSU

Is one of mine wrong?

JMU would get a bowl spot before a 5-7 team if there are not enough teams go to the bowl. I would put them there going to the bowl for the exception.

That was a list of teams that are eligible. JMU isn’t currently eligible and won’t be even if they go 12-0 unless not enough qualify.

(10-23-2023 01:47 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 01:23 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  This week, Nevada staved off elimination from bowl eligibility by beating San Diego State 6-0. In Week 9 they get another chance at futility as they host New Mexico. Six other schools face elimination this week:

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
East Carolina @ UT San Antonio
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
UTEP @ Sam Houston
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State
UConn @ Boston College

As many as 17 can become eligible this week. Only two games are sure to crown one of them: Tennessee @ Kentucky, and Troy @ Texas State.

29 schools are now eligible, compared to 27 last year, while 7 are ineligible (barring waivers) compared with 3 in 2022.

Last year after Week 9, 36 teams had achieved eligibility, and 10 had been eliminated.

NOTE: I am currently listing New Mexico State, currently 5-3, as bowl eligible if they get one more FBS win. But they will play 13 regular season games as they played at Hawaii. If they finish 6-7, does anyone know definitively if they will be automatically eligible, or do they need a waiver in that case?

I’m counting 30 eligible right now. Here is my list.

Oklahoma
Georgia
Louisville
Michigan
USC
Liberty
Florida St
Ohio St
Alabama
Toledo

Fresno State
Penn State
Miami (OH)
Washington
Iowa
North Carolina
Missouri
Air Force
Notre Dame
Oregon State

Rutgers
Ohio
Tulane
Oregon
Texas
UNLV
Mississippi
Utah
Georgia State
LSU

Is one of mine wrong?

JMU would get a bowl spot before a 5-7 team if there are not enough teams go to the bowl. I would put them there going to the bowl for the exception.

But they are not eligible ...so...oh well...

(10-23-2023 04:04 PM)panama Wrote:  

(10-23-2023 01:47 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 01:23 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  This week, Nevada staved off elimination from bowl eligibility by beating San Diego State 6-0. In Week 9 they get another chance at futility as they host New Mexico. Six other schools face elimination this week:

Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss
East Carolina @ UT San Antonio
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan
UTEP @ Sam Houston
Southern Miss @ Appalachian State
UConn @ Boston College

As many as 17 can become eligible this week. Only two games are sure to crown one of them: Tennessee @ Kentucky, and Troy @ Texas State.

29 schools are now eligible, compared to 27 last year, while 7 are ineligible (barring waivers) compared with 3 in 2022.

Last year after Week 9, 36 teams had achieved eligibility, and 10 had been eliminated.

NOTE: I am currently listing New Mexico State, currently 5-3, as bowl eligible if they get one more FBS win. But they will play 13 regular season games as they played at Hawaii. If they finish 6-7, does anyone know definitively if they will be automatically eligible, or do they need a waiver in that case?

I’m counting 30 eligible right now. Here is my list.

Oklahoma
Georgia
Louisville
Michigan
USC
Liberty
Florida St
Ohio St
Alabama
Toledo

Fresno State
Penn State
Miami (OH)
Washington
Iowa
North Carolina
Missouri
Air Force
Notre Dame
Oregon State

Rutgers
Ohio
Tulane
Oregon
Texas
UNLV
Mississippi
Utah
Georgia State
LSU

Is one of mine wrong?

JMU would get a bowl spot before a 5-7 team if there are not enough teams go to the bowl. I would put them there going to the bowl for the exception.

But they are not eligible ...so...oh well...

Yes, but in their second year, they could get a waiver to go to a bowl if there are not enough teams to play in the bowl. That would be before a 6-7 New Mexico State or last year a 5-6. New Mexico State,

(10-23-2023 04:04 PM)panama Wrote:  

(10-23-2023 01:47 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  ... JMU would get a bowl spot before a 5-7 team if there are not enough teams go to the bowl. I would put them there going to the bowl for the exception.

But they are not eligible ...so...oh well...

Exactly. If there is a list of schools that are waiting in the wings if there are unfilled bowl spots, they would be in that list ... same as 6 win schools that have 13 game schedules because of a Hawaii game.