(06-04-2023 09:44 PM)AztecNation Wrote:  Under that scenario:
SDSU
SMU
Memphis
Tulane

Other options: AFA, Fresno St., Boise St., Colorado St., Rice, UTSA, UNLV

Tulane and especially Memphis are too far.

(06-04-2023 03:57 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 03:18 PM)Crayton Wrote:  UNLV, Colorado St, Rice.

Nope. Still no football powerhouses.

The MW exit fee is so high, the Pac might soon consider inviting the entire MW just to maintain a critical mass of schools... and have a decent football product. Pro/rel? hehe

CSU only if CU leaves. But they are R1 with a $450M research budget which fits the PAC academically and with good athletics facilities. If they don't get in the PAC then perhaps the B12 would take them.

After SDSU and SMU then I could see these schools being targets but not until 2030:

Kansas
Houston
Tulane
Rice

UNLV would have to work on things athletically to get a look. They've never had much success in football. Nice location, but a lot of options for spending dollars to go to sports events there.

Why would Houston & Kanas leave for less money?

(06-04-2023 08:26 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 04:36 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 04:31 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 04:25 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  Pac 12 has no viable candidates - a viable candidate is one that increases tv money. If SDSU is added, it is because a team left. SMU has no chance. SDSU & SMU are excellent schools, this is solely about $$ from tv rankings.

PAC needs 12 for inventory. Both SDSU and SMU would enter at lesser shares, though they might not be the same. The PAC cannot afford to be locked out of all of SoCal and they know the B12 would take SDSU if they don't. Adding SDSU is a defensive move. Going into Texas is more on the offensive and SMU has plenty of money to spend.

SDSU doesn't provide access to the LA market & the Pac-12 has made due without the SD market for its entire existence. SD market is a bad sports market - only the Padres - lost the NFL & no NBA or NHL. SD is a huge wealthy city & it only supports 1 major league team? The Pac 12 also doesn't need inventory - the league can't sell the games it has now at a decent price.

The conference is already lost - they just won't admit it. I lived thru the Big East experience - Pac 12 is in the same spot.

I wish SDSU well & am sure the school will eventually find a home if it continues to invest.

Nope, Pac claimed the SD market via USCLA but SDSU still is the one that owns it. The PAC loses the SD market unless they invite SDSU. You really don't know crap. There are 24 million in SoCal. It's a big place with a lot of recruits. San Diego is the 5th largest county in the US. We also have a lot of SDSU graduates throughout the area, especially up the 15 in Temecula which would identify more with San Diego sports than LA. Still, they end up in the LA DMA.

Lost the NFL? No. The Chargers would have gotten over $900M to stay here without ever reaching into their pocket. But, Spanos wanted to move to LA and that is what he got. He has no following there. We didn't lose the Chargers, we have been stuck with lousy ownership, Spanos and then Gene Klein before that. We did have the NBA. Know the name Donald Sterling? Only owner of a professional sports team (Clippers) in the USA forced to sell his team by the other owners. Padres? They are in the top 5 in attendance over the last 5 or so years. SDSU basketball outdraws every PAC school other than Arizona which has a larger arena. The modern passing game in football was created here under Don Coryell at SDSU. You can look that up if you want and find out that John Madden and Joe Gibbs coached under Coryell at SDSU. This is a very good sports town but you have to show you want to win. If not, there are other things to do. The Spanoses? They went to one Superbowl in 1994 and after demanded the city spend $100M in stadium upgrades with a ticket guarantee that said the city would buy tickets they didn't sell. Guess what, they didn't try to sell them (and Spanos has done the same thing in LA with Kronke). Not great for public relations. The paint on the remodel wasn't even dry and Spanos said they needed a new stadium. Spanos is a laughing stock among the other owners who didn't want him to move the team.

As for LA, how many professional football teams have they lost? Four. They lost the Chargers in 61, the Rams and the Raiders and they were supposed to get the Houston franchise if they just built a stadium. They didn't, so the franchise went to Houston. Kronke came in and built a stadium on his dime for the most part. LA sure as hell didn't do much but gift him land.

The NWSL set two attendance records here at Snapdragon in just their second year playing. 33K for a women's soccer game. Even the National team doesn't draw that for a friendly. We just got a MSL franchise which brings along with it an international youth soccer foundation, "Right to Dream." San Diego will be one of the leaders for soccer in the nation with that affiliation.

I really tire of people that don't know a damned thing about this town trashing it and its sports history. Why don't you try to buy a seat for a Padre game right now, see how much it costs if you can actually get a seat. Funny thing, the Padres have an owner that actually spends money and wants to win and they routinely sell out. And, they don't even have a winning record right now.

The PAC isn't dying. Only way that happens is if the B1G takes at least two more teams. That won't happen, if it even does, until 2030.

Oh yeah, San Diego is rather wealthy. However, it is also expensive. I live in a 1650 sf duplex which is worth over a million dollars. That means it also costs over a million dollars. You look to live in Cincy, betcha that million bucks buys you a bigger house there. Of course, your weather sucks while I live in the nicest climate in the world. So yeah, wealthy city but everything here costs more as well. Try not to be so stupid.

I'm one of those rare birds who lived in warmer (hotter?) climates for a long time but moved back to the Great Lakes. I love the seasons - all of them - but appreciate that most folks don't like the cold, snowy gray winters. Different strokes.

(06-05-2023 06:48 AM)Owls9878 Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 09:44 PM)AztecNation Wrote:  Under that scenario:
SDSU
SMU
Memphis
Tulane

Other options: AFA, Fresno St., Boise St., Colorado St., Rice, UTSA, UNLV

Tulane and especially Memphis are too far.

There is no "too far" anymore!

SDSU fan

SDSU is a great school and growing rapidly but I just don't see the BIG12 adding SDSU until after they try for Colorado, Arizona, ASU and Utah.

On a different note I'm confident that BIG12 fans would rather add SDSU over UTAH.

There are only 2 real viable candidates:
SDSU
SMU

I don't know why the Pac has delayed - they should have been asked to join yesterday


After that we have to get creative -

Gonzaga as non-football

AAUs available:
Kansas
Iowa State

Rice and UNLV make the most sense, to me, but I could see how Tulane could also get the call. If the AAC only loses Rice and SMU I think they are fine to hold at 12. Add Tulane in to the mix and then adding a school like Louisiana Tech to get back to 12 makes sense.

(06-05-2023 10:16 AM)jgkojak Wrote:  There are only 2 real viable candidates:
SDSU
SMU

I don't know why the Pac has delayed - they should have been asked to join yesterday


After that we have to get creative -

Gonzaga as non-football

AAUs available:
Kansas
Iowa State

Neither Kansas nor ISU is "available". ISU is also not AAU anymore.

(06-05-2023 07:23 AM)DC Texan Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 03:57 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 03:18 PM)Crayton Wrote:  UNLV, Colorado St, Rice.

Nope. Still no football powerhouses.

The MW exit fee is so high, the Pac might soon consider inviting the entire MW just to maintain a critical mass of schools... and have a decent football product. Pro/rel? hehe

CSU only if CU leaves. But they are R1 with a $450M research budget which fits the PAC academically and with good athletics facilities. If they don't get in the PAC then perhaps the B12 would take them.

After SDSU and SMU then I could see these schools being targets but not until 2030:

Kansas
Houston
Tulane
Rice

UNLV would have to work on things athletically to get a look. They've never had much success in football. Nice location, but a lot of options for spending dollars to go to sports events there.

Why would Houston & Kanas leave for less money?

Why do you assume it would be less money in 2030? Might not even be less money now. But, Kansas wants to be associated with AAU schools which the B12 lacks.

(06-04-2023 03:14 PM)CFBJunkie Wrote:  Its become clear that the Pac 12's two most likely expansion candidates are San Diego State and SMU. Who would be the most likely potential third and four expansion candidate if the league chose to do so (to replace Colorado + Arizona or all 4 corners leaving)?

Athletically/Brand? FSU and Boise. However, you could make a case for a combo of CSU, Rice and Tulane.

(06-05-2023 11:53 AM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(06-05-2023 07:23 AM)DC Texan Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 03:57 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 03:18 PM)Crayton Wrote:  UNLV, Colorado St, Rice.

Nope. Still no football powerhouses.

The MW exit fee is so high, the Pac might soon consider inviting the entire MW just to maintain a critical mass of schools... and have a decent football product. Pro/rel? hehe

CSU only if CU leaves. But they are R1 with a $450M research budget which fits the PAC academically and with good athletics facilities. If they don't get in the PAC then perhaps the B12 would take them.

After SDSU and SMU then I could see these schools being targets but not until 2030:

Kansas
Houston
Tulane
Rice

UNLV would have to work on things athletically to get a look. They've never had much success in football. Nice location, but a lot of options for spending dollars to go to sports events there.

Why would Houston & Kanas leave for less money?

Why do you assume it would be less money in 2030? Might not even be less money now. But, Kansas wants to be associated with AAU schools which the B12 lacks.

What Kansas would prefer is for the Big 12 to get within range of Big 10/SEC money. If that isn't possible then we want to go to the Big 10. If the Big 10 doesn't invite us first then we would go to the SEC.

(06-04-2023 04:25 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  Pac 12 has no viable candidates - a viable candidate is one that increases tv money. If SDSU is added, it is because a team left. SMU has no chance. SDSU & SMU are excellent schools, this is solely about $$ from tv rankings.

Boise State and Fresno State brings more money to the PAC 12 than San Diego State and SMU.

(06-04-2023 03:57 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 03:18 PM)Crayton Wrote:  UNLV, Colorado St, Rice.

Nope. Still no football powerhouses.

The MW exit fee is so high, the Pac might soon consider inviting the entire MW just to maintain a critical mass of schools... and have a decent football product. Pro/rel? hehe

CSU only if CU leaves. But they are R1 with a $450M research budget which fits the PAC academically and with good athletics facilities. If they don't get in the PAC then perhaps the B12 would take them.

After SDSU and SMU then I could see these schools being targets but not until 2030:

Kansas
Houston
Tulane
Rice

UNLV would have to work on things athletically to get a look. They've never had much success in football. Nice location, but a lot of options for spending dollars to go to sports events there.

That's, ahem, a pretty wide net you threw out there. There's a yawning chasm separating KU/UH from those other athletically, and there's a different yawning chasm separating Tulane/Rice from the other 2 Academically.

(06-04-2023 04:07 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 03:57 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  CSU only if CU leaves. But they are R1 with a $450M research budget which fits the PAC academically and with good athletics facilities. If they don't get in the PAC then perhaps the B12 would take them.

After SDSU and SMU then I could see these schools being targets but not until 2030:

Kansas
Houston
Tulane
Rice

Kansas is more likely to win a football national championship than leave for the projected 2024 (or any other future) version of the Pac

From 1990 to 2021, I would have said "Arizona is more likely to win a Football National Championship than leave for any future version of the big 12". I don't think it's likely that the script flips again in the next couple years, but a whole lot can change quickly these days.

(06-05-2023 07:29 AM)DC Texan Wrote:  SDSU fan

SDSU is a great school and growing rapidly but I just don't see the BIG12 adding SDSU until after they try for Colorado, Arizona, ASU and Utah.

On a different note I'm confident that BIG12 fans would rather add SDSU over UTAH.

Both the PAC and the B12 want to be in the SoCal market. It is the largest market available that does not have a P5 school. SDSU is likely going to be in the PAC as long as they don't collapse. I think the likelihood of a collapse is very, very small. It would take the B1G taking two more teams now, and they seem to be standing pat. for now. Multiple presidents don't want more expansion west until, at least they see how it works out with USCLA. Also, USC doesn't want either UW or UO to join them, especially the latter.

It’s not USC’s call on who is added to the conference (if it’s even true they don’t want UW and UO to join).

(06-05-2023 11:59 AM)TeamRamRod1 Wrote:  

(06-05-2023 11:53 AM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(06-05-2023 07:23 AM)DC Texan Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 03:57 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 03:18 PM)Crayton Wrote:  UNLV, Colorado St, Rice.

Nope. Still no football powerhouses.

The MW exit fee is so high, the Pac might soon consider inviting the entire MW just to maintain a critical mass of schools... and have a decent football product. Pro/rel? hehe

CSU only if CU leaves. But they are R1 with a $450M research budget which fits the PAC academically and with good athletics facilities. If they don't get in the PAC then perhaps the B12 would take them.

After SDSU and SMU then I could see these schools being targets but not until 2030:

Kansas
Houston
Tulane
Rice

UNLV would have to work on things athletically to get a look. They've never had much success in football. Nice location, but a lot of options for spending dollars to go to sports events there.

Why would Houston & Kanas leave for less money?

Why do you assume it would be less money in 2030? Might not even be less money now. But, Kansas wants to be associated with AAU schools which the B12 lacks.

What Kansas would prefer is for the Big 12 to get within range of Big 10/SEC money. If that isn't possible then we want to go to the Big 10. If the Big 10 doesn't invite us first then we would go to the SEC.

Don't see the B1G offering Kansas, Either the PAC or the ACC might, however.

(06-05-2023 12:28 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  It’s not USC’s call on who is added to the conference (if it’s even true they don’t want UW and UO to join).

No it isn't, but the B1G added the second largest TV market in the US for a reason.

(06-04-2023 11:28 PM)thespywhozaggedme Wrote:  Do people really still think there’s going to be a PAC, once the dominoes start to fall? I think it’s much more likely that the two remaining schools that no one wants, Oregon State, and Washington state just get absorbed into the MWC.

There CAN be a PAC, but only if they are smart. They need to grab a couple of schools in the central time zone. The central time zone is where the college football eyeballs are, and if you have no footprint there, you are missing out on a huge population of people who WOULD buy a streaming subscription to the conference.

WHich is why I believe the B12 may be targeting Memphis to come in with Colorado. Memphis is located in the middle of SEC country, where there are a very high number of college football eyeballs. If the pac (or later down the road, the ACC ) needed to expand again, that would be one of the best remaining markets on the block. If the B12 removes that as an option, the PAC and ACC remnants may just die off on the vine. If there's some school worth taking, the B12 would have no problems getting the ones they want at that point.

IN other words, the B12 could target Memphis to ensure the Pac and ACC cannot rebuild into a future threat. You would have the B1G and the SEC, followed by the B12, then the others further down, with the B12 continuing to put separation between them and the others below them.

San Diego State and Long Beach State (Rams Stadium) lessgo

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