BluffCityBoy
Bench Warmer
Posts: 109
Joined: Aug 2012
Reputation: 21
I Root For: Memphis Tigers
Location: 4th Chickasaw Bluff
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RE: Sunbelt Expansion
(05-16-2023 03:14 PM)Unbreakable04 Wrote: (05-16-2023 12:38 PM)BluffCityBoy Wrote: (05-16-2023 09:28 AM)Unbreakable04 Wrote: (05-16-2023 07:55 AM)Stammers Wrote: (05-16-2023 07:40 AM)Atlanta Wrote: Here are the actual projected per school payouts for the SEC (including poor Vandy) - $100M/per yr - see link below. And CFP payments are in addition. Yep poor Vandy but hey we have a chance every 2-4 years to be the biggest midget in G5. THAT'S actually calculated as a .6 chance annually per my link in the post above. And if that's the goal, why even renovate the LB or pursue a conference move up? Some crazy logic being expressed to prefer our G5 status.
https://footballscoop.com/news/data-firm-projects-s ec-100-million-revenue-end-of-decade
Again, I have no clue what stupidities you are talking about when you say that someone prefers being G5. Also, only someone who is completely detached from reality, believes that being in a 12 team playoff for ALL of college football would in any shape or form make us a midget.
If we never make the playoff, then we are in big trouble; but we are positioned to be able to be able to make a decent run at it.
Atlanta prefers going 2-10 with $100 million in the bank than 13-0 or 12-1 and making the playoff. God bless him.
I'd imagine the overwhelming majority of Memphis fans, if given the opportunity, would choose the jump to a larger conference with 15x the revenue stream if it meant having a losing record. The intangibles alone from that cash infusion to our University & City would be a complete game changer. Not to mention opponents visiting our home stadium who are worth a damn and not trying to beat cupcakes as we do now, unsuccessfully, with our coach that has a losing conference record the past two years.
Let's see - play North TX, Rice, MTSU, Charlotte, etc. and "win" 10 games or play high level Universities we can compete with, draw interest and dramatically change the landscape of our City? Doesn't take a rocket scientist, or even a Canadian, to figure that one out.
So yes, I think you are in the minority when it comes to wanting to be the "flagship" G5 over the opportunity to make $100M+ in revenue each year and what that'd mean for our University. And ultimately, if this hypothetical situation ever played out (which it won't, unfortunately), we know our sports team would not be stuck in mediocrity land forever simply due to the cash infusion and what that'd mean.
If it were up to me and the University was offered a P5 spot tomorrow, I'd absolutely take it. That being said, we are in a far better spot as a nonP5 school having that playoff spot. I think as the next few years pass and people see the "best of the rest" get that spot, they will warm up to it more. It would undoubtedly change the University, and honestly city as a whole, to have that P5 money, but having at least one seat at the big boy table could transform a program and I hope it's Memphis. Vandy gets money every year even though they stink, so that's a better option because like Pastner said "winning is hard" and it's nowhere near a guarantee to be in the playoff with this team and staff that struggles to close out winnable games. It wouldn't be P5 media money, but I'd imagine the University would have an infusion of cash if they were to make the playoffs a few times over the next few years along with other benefits like higher enrollment. That, too, would be a huge boost for the University.
I know it's a different sport, but Gonzaga would not be who they were without dominating their league which allowed them to repeatedly go to the NCAA Tourney and build their brand over the past two decades. They wouldn't be getting 5* athletes. Would they rather have Louisville or Cal's P5 money last year? Probably, but as a Zag basketball fan, they have to love their situation and chance to play for a national title every year. They have only gotten as close as we have, but that doesn't mean that they aren't talked about nationally every March and their fanbase having a blast.
Let's hope that Memphis football can parallel that and is always in that playoff conversation and keeps us in the collective national media's mouth over the next few years. That simple playoff spot is a silver lining that didn't exist even a few years ago when UCF had that multi season undefeated run. Chaos looks imminent with the ACC rumblings this week. Let's pray for chaos and play for conference titles!
Lastly, don't speak in absolutes. You say it's never going to happen, but it did! We got to the Big East once, and I know that fizzled quick, but we have absolutely no clue where things go from here and anyone who thinks they do is just making things up!
Never going to happen was referring to a $100M payday similar to the SEC, I do think we will make our way in somehow but it will be a watered down version of a P5 conference once all the dominoes fall.
Yes, having a spot "could" transform Memphis, but that would take immediate results on the field. We've seen what the program is capable of and we've also seen our team erode into mediocrity over the past few seasons, with losing conference records against the cupcakes we have now. So, do you choose a losing conference record (present day reality) with a shot every now & then at the playoff? Or keep the same losing record and receive a payday, brand recognition, conference recognition, actual opponents people will pay to see (you're kidding yourself if you think attendance will all of a sudden double by playing Rice, Charlotte, MTSU, North TX, etc. at home even if we are winning 10+ games, annually), and a cash infusion which will allow our football team, the University & our overall brand to prosper?
It seems like a no brainer to me. Not to mention what that means for every other sport program at the University, facility improvements for both sports & academics and the entire University area as a whole. Yes, we've seen what we can do with $7M annually and it's remarkable what we've done. What we need at this sad state of college athletics is more cash to compete, both from an academic standpoint and on the field. We are kidding ourselves if this mythical shot at a playoff is going to change the direction of our program as a whole. Yes, thankfully we now have an outsider's chance at the playoff, but comparing basketball schools to football is not apples/apples.
For example, FAU going to the Final Four is not going to all of a sudden make them a basketball powerhouse and develop a brand. Yes, they are poised to have one more great year before their coach leaves. Not to mention, putting together a basketball team compared to a football team is night & day based on needs. Flipping a basketball team can be done in one season, football, not so much due to the sheer amount of bodies needed.
We will be in the same boat IF we were to make the playoff as a G5, we've seen it happen with Norvell, coaches want better opportunities and if we were to ever get into a P5 then the days of building a program would be much easier so a coach can get compensated properly, have the resources to (unfortunately) pay players an asinine amount of money and build a program without nickel & diming everything.
I understand your logic and get why having access to the playoff is important, because it truly is, but the goalposts have moved with these TV deals and NIL. If we had this opportunity five years ago I am probably in complete agreement - but since then, every conference's revenue stream has grown substantially and we are stuck. Five years ago the haves/haves nots was not as separated as it is now and this is only the beginning. So yes, I would much rather be in Syracuse, Virginia, Boston College, AZ, AZ State or whoever else's shoes and muddle along in a P5 football conference rather than tout victories over Rice, North TX, Tulsa, Tulane, etc. and hope EVERYONE loses 1 game and we somehow go undefeated to make it to a playoff, because the bigger picture for the University is GREATER by joining a P5 conference, than a hypothetical visit to the CFP 1 or 2 times per decade, to watch us get railroaded by a team full of NIL players while we make 1/15th of what they do from a conference standpoint.
First of all, the FAU program is not Gonzaga. By switching Gonzaga for FAU, you're changing my point completely in that Gonzaga has built their brand over 2 decades with Mark Few, not one shining moment of a magical year that FAU had. (It is funny you pulled FAU out because they are literally moving up in conferences!) I also pointed out that different sports was not apples to apples...My point is that over a period of time IF Memphis were to get to the level Norvell had the football team, and sustain for a few seasons, then it could be a huge silver lining that wasn't present until this point with expanding the playoffs and having a nonP5 spot.
UCF never got the opportunity to play for a title even with their multi-year undefeated run, nor did Boise St with Petersen. Now, just like the team ranked 363 in Kenpom, all 131 FBS team have a path to a national title for the first time ever (at least since the BCS era). The new opportunity for a national title from a non p5 schools is my comparison between sports. That matters, and a scenario of routinely winning the conference and being a perennial contender for that for that playoff spot is the comparison to Gonzaga. You'd be crazy to think that the needle wouldn't budge if we were to do that. Even getting thrashed by the Bama's and OSU's of the world would still have us in a national conversation and a playoff spot big payday, tons of merch sold, enrollment going up, more donor dollars for NIL, etc. I never claimed attendance would go up (although I have to imagine if we were a perennial 10+ win team we would have some level of higher attendance regardless of competition - everyone loves a winner).
Again, I'd take the P5 money today and gladly get destroyed in league play with football (but have to imagine our bball would still prosper). I'm not arguing in the slightest that it is better to be nonP5, just saying that even though the gap of the "have's" and "have not's" is widening substantially, there will be a nonP5 team in the playoffs and at some point one of those teams will even defy the odds and beat a powerhouse to advance. I hope that is Memphis. Would anyone be surprised if the P5 added teams (formerly not P5) and it happens to be teams in that playoff spot? Let's be that team. The only reason we are "stuck" as you put it is that realignment isn't happening this afternoon. We can't force our way into the P5 but we can now control our path with on the field success that never existed before.
Yes, Silverfield has been underwhelming, but we have blown huge leads and always are on the wrong side of OT games. Four conference games last year were decided by a touchdown or less. Will Silverfield have the team learn how to play with a lead or find a way to win a close game? Hopefully, but it's not hard to imagine a few calls here or there different, or just having one receiver or RB like we have churned out to the NFL would have us in a different spot the past couple of seasons. With Boise St and Tulane(after our bye week) at home and no UTSA, it wouldn't be crazy to be 10+ wins headed into a conference championship game this season.
Realignment will continue to happen. Conferences will look to add teams because of $$$. The biggest of the boys (Big10 and SEC) will likely add more programs because of $$$. A raided P5 conference, or banded together current P5 schools remaining, will want to put together a competitive league with good markets, programs with good facilities, and ideally the best academics possible. We achieved R1 status. We are breaking ground on the Liberty Bowl renovations. If we win big over the next few seasons (regardless of Silverfield winning big and moving on), we start checking all the boxes. It be hard to imagine we wouldn't be primed for moving up. In the meantime, let's try and play for a national title because that's actually possible for the first time ever. Probable, likely, guaranteed, or even possible? Probably no, but the current state is not P5 or just accept that we are "stuck".
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