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The BigXII new deal
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Gitanole Offline
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Post: #41
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-30-2022 02:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  lol gotta love new Big XII fans coming over to rub our noses in their inferior deal.

They did get a few more million than I expected, so good for them.

It's a solid, stabilizing move for a conference that recently endured (yet another) near-death experience. The celebratizing is understandable.

Being B12 fans with Willy Loman wearing a plaid jacket in their front office, they'll let the pocket money go to their heads and talk empire. What they have is, as always, a conference.

Given recent events, though, that's something. Morale in the B12 has improved without Texas around, and that's good to see.
10-30-2022 09:43 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #42
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-30-2022 09:43 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 02:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  lol gotta love new Big XII fans coming over to rub our noses in their inferior deal.

They did get a few more million than I expected, so good for them.

It's a solid, stabilizing move for a conference that recently endured (yet another) near-death experience. The celebratizing is understandable.

Being B12 fans with Willy Loman wearing a plaid jacket in their front office, they'll let the pocket money go to their heads and talk empire. What they have is, as always, a conference.

Given recent events, though, that's something. Morale in the B12 has improved without Texas around, and that's good to see.

Which version of itself is the present reality in the ACC? 1960's version death of tobacco? 1970's version which began to cement its hoops image? 1990's which thought it could subsidize hoops with football? I'd say Willy isn't exactly apt to only the Big 12. In fact, he may resonate with all Americans yearning for the 20th century.

Or maybe as Arthur Miller realized, as we each survey the sum of our accomplishments, failures, and missed opportunities we choose an amalgamation which justifies the sum of our existence.

Perhaps he suggests that reality occurs on multiple levels depending upon one's point of view.

The propagation of pity and fear does find purchase in us all!
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2022 10:18 PM by JRsec.)
10-30-2022 10:17 PM
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OrangeDude Offline
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Post: #43
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-30-2022 06:20 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 12:40 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Let's compare it with the ACC money.

The ACC television revenue was $397.4 M for 2020-2021 including ND
Without ND, it would have been $370.91M. The ACC TV money increases at 4.1 percent per year (the ACCN revenue increases faster but let's try to be conservative).

2020-2021 $370.91
2021-2022 $386.23
2022-2023 $402.19
2023-2024 $418.81
2024-2025 $436.12
2025-2026 $454.14
2026-2027 $472.91
2027-2028 $492.45
2028-2029 $512.80
2029-2030 $533.99
2030-2031 $556.05
Six Year Average 2526-30/31 $503.72
Average Payout per team $35.98

The B12 money doesn't include Tier 3 but the ACCN payout was not fully developed in 2020-2021. The inflation does help the B12 but the ACC team will get at least $5 million more than the B12 team.

My math is a little different.

One thing that I notice is that a lot of folks like to present numbers "on the come" meaning they present fiscal 2020 as if it were the calendar year 2020.

ACC numbers always have the football season at the start of a fiscal year s fiscal year 2020 is actually football season 2019.

I have FY 19,20, and 21 tv at $288 M, $322 M, and $373 M for the 14 ACC members while that last year number in total was $413 M (this includes the full ND share).

Going foward I get the following:

FY Total Per School Slightly Rounded
22 393 28M
23 411 29M
24 430 31M
25 449 32 M
26 470 33.5 M
27 490 35 M
28 513 36.6 M
29 536 38.2 M
30 560 40 M
31 585 41.8 M
So for the 2030 football season that's $ 585 shown at June 30, 2031.

All the other distributions run about $12 million a year so add that to the TV total so that's $40 M (this year) to $54 M by 2030. No increase in football playoff or recapture of NCAA basketball tourney shown. No added schools. No big negotiated ratchet.

I am going to take a different approach to this.

The overall deal is for 2.28B over six years beginning in 2025-26.

So, 2.28B divided by 6 years is an average of 380M per year.

Assuming there is no further expansion that pot of money is divided 13 ways - 12 institutions and the Conference Office which is an average of $29.23M over 6 years. Subtract out the $29.23M annual conference share that leaves a total 350M per year for the 12 teams in the B12 or basically $2.1B total for all 12 schools over 6 years.

Since we are dealing with an even number of years instead of an odd number of years, I will assume the average is reached in both years 3 and 4 though we all know it won't be that exactly - but for simplicity's sake that is how I will put it down.

Year 1 - 2025-26 - $26.23M per school average
Year 2 - 2026-27 - $27.23M per school average
Year 3 - 2027-28 - $29.23M per school average
Year 4 - 2028-29 - $29.23M per school average
Year 5 - 2029-30 - $30.73M per school average
Year 6 - 2030-31 - $32.23M per school average

Again, the above is ONLY media $$$ numbers. It doesn't include $$$ via football bowl games, CFP, or NCAA tourney monies.

We have Pete Thamel saying Tier 3 rights were included per ESPN but so far I believe he is the only one I have seen reporting this. FOX isn't involved in Big12NOW since it's on ESPN+ owned by Disney I suppose it is possible that separate agreement was done at the same time. Whether or not the $2.28B included this or not is still not known.

So random asian guy and/or SouthernConfBoy if either of you have the data (or projected data) for what the 14 full-time football schools received from media money and ACCN dollars so we might have a credible way to project the 14 football schools media monies for that same 6 year period we might be able to compare apples to apples.

Understand if a "best guess" is required.

Just a thought.

Cheers,
Neil
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2022 10:22 PM by OrangeDude.)
10-30-2022 10:19 PM
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Wahoowa84 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-30-2022 12:10 PM)BigOwensboroCard Wrote:  I posted this comment in another thread, but works here as well.

So just how much does this new deal with the Big12 hurts the ACC in hopes of renegotiating their deal with ESPN??? IMO if the PAC gets something of a similar deal then ESPN is going to tell the ACC they need to be happy with their deal and STFU. The Big12 with this new deal will be able to renegotiate yet another TV deal before this horrific deal the ACC is tied to. Yea some will say security bla bla bla, but if anything this is nothing but purgatory for all its members to see everyone else able to cash in. Hopefully some good news will come sooner than later, but doubt it will come about.

^^THIS^^

The B12 deal actually helps ESPN in defending the contract with the ACC.
10-30-2022 10:22 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #45
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-30-2022 10:19 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 06:20 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 12:40 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Let's compare it with the ACC money.

The ACC television revenue was $397.4 M for 2020-2021 including ND
Without ND, it would have been $370.91M. The ACC TV money increases at 4.1 percent per year (the ACCN revenue increases faster but let's try to be conservative).

2020-2021 $370.91
2021-2022 $386.23
2022-2023 $402.19
2023-2024 $418.81
2024-2025 $436.12
2025-2026 $454.14
2026-2027 $472.91
2027-2028 $492.45
2028-2029 $512.80
2029-2030 $533.99
2030-2031 $556.05
Six Year Average 2526-30/31 $503.72
Average Payout per team $35.98

The B12 money doesn't include Tier 3 but the ACCN payout was not fully developed in 2020-2021. The inflation does help the B12 but the ACC team will get at least $5 million more than the B12 team.

My math is a little different.

One thing that I notice is that a lot of folks like to present numbers "on the come" meaning they present fiscal 2020 as if it were the calendar year 2020.

ACC numbers always have the football season at the start of a fiscal year s fiscal year 2020 is actually football season 2019.

I have FY 19,20, and 21 tv at $288 M, $322 M, and $373 M for the 14 ACC members while that last year number in total was $413 M (this includes the full ND share).

Going foward I get the following:

FY Total Per School Slightly Rounded
22 393 28M
23 411 29M
24 430 31M
25 449 32 M
26 470 33.5 M
27 490 35 M
28 513 36.6 M
29 536 38.2 M
30 560 40 M
31 585 41.8 M
So for the 2030 football season that's $ 585 shown at June 30, 2031.

All the other distributions run about $12 million a year so add that to the TV total so that's $40 M (this year) to $54 M by 2030. No increase in football playoff or recapture of NCAA basketball tourney shown. No added schools. No big negotiated ratchet.

I am going to take a different approach to this.

The overall deal is for 2.28B over six years beginning in 2025-26.

So, 2.28B divided by 6 years is an average of 380M per year.

Assuming there is no further expansion that pot of money is divided 13 ways - 12 institutions and the Conference Office which is an average of $29.23M over 6 years. Subtract out the $29.23M annual conference share that leaves a total 350M per year for the 12 teams in the B12 or basically $2.1B total for all 12 schools over 6 years.

Since we are dealing with an even number of years instead of an odd number of years, I will assume the average is reached in both years 3 and 4 though we all know it won't be that exactly - but for simplicity's sake that is how I will put it down.

Year 1 - 2025-26 - $26.23M per school average
Year 2 - 2026-27 - $27.23M per school average
Year 3 - 2027-28 - $29.23M per school average
Year 4 - 2028-29 - $29.23M per school average
Year 5 - 2029-30 - $30.73M per school average
Year 6 - 2030-31 - $32.23M per school average

Again, the above is ONLY media $$$ numbers. It doesn't include $$$ via football bowl games, CFP, or NCAA tourney monies.

We have Pete Thamel saying Tier 3 rights were included per ESPN but so far I believe he is the only one I have seen reporting this. FOX isn't involved in Big12NOW since it's on ESPN+ owned by Disney I suppose it is possible that separate agreement was done at the same time. Whether or not the $2.28B included this or not is still not known.

So random asian guy and/or SouthernConfBoy if either of you have the data (or projected data) for what the 14 full-time football schools received from media money and ACCN dollars so we might have a credible way to project the 14 football schools media monies for that same 6 year period we might be able to compare apples to apples.

Understand if a "best guess" is required.

Just a thought.

Cheers,
Neil

I was just about to mention that the Big XII won't be getting the average value until years 3 and 4, but I see Neil beat me to it...
10-30-2022 10:35 PM
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SouthernConfBoy Offline
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Post: #46
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-30-2022 10:19 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 06:20 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 12:40 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Let's compare it with the ACC money.

The ACC television revenue was $397.4 M for 2020-2021 including ND
Without ND, it would have been $370.91M. The ACC TV money increases at 4.1 percent per year (the ACCN revenue increases faster but let's try to be conservative).

2020-2021 $370.91
2021-2022 $386.23
2022-2023 $402.19
2023-2024 $418.81
2024-2025 $436.12
2025-2026 $454.14
2026-2027 $472.91
2027-2028 $492.45
2028-2029 $512.80
2029-2030 $533.99
2030-2031 $556.05
Six Year Average 2526-30/31 $503.72
Average Payout per team $35.98

The B12 money doesn't include Tier 3 but the ACCN payout was not fully developed in 2020-2021. The inflation does help the B12 but the ACC team will get at least $5 million more than the B12 team.

My math is a little different.

One thing that I notice is that a lot of folks like to present numbers "on the come" meaning they present fiscal 2020 as if it were the calendar year 2020.

ACC numbers always have the football season at the start of a fiscal year s fiscal year 2020 is actually football season 2019.

I have FY 19,20, and 21 tv at $288 M, $322 M, and $373 M for the 14 ACC members while that last year number in total was $413 M (this includes the full ND share).

Going foward I get the following:

FY Total Per School Slightly Rounded
22 393 28M
23 411 29M
24 430 31M
25 449 32 M
26 470 33.5 M
27 490 35 M
28 513 36.6 M
29 536 38.2 M
30 560 40 M
31 585 41.8 M
So for the 2030 football season that's $ 585 shown at June 30, 2031.

All the other distributions run about $12 million a year so add that to the TV total so that's $40 M (this year) to $54 M by 2030. No increase in football playoff or recapture of NCAA basketball tourney shown. No added schools. No big negotiated ratchet.

I am going to take a different approach to this.

The overall deal is for 2.28B over six years beginning in 2025-26.

So, 2.28B divided by 6 years is an average of 380M per year.

Assuming there is no further expansion that pot of money is divided 13 ways - 12 institutions and the Conference Office which is an average of $29.23M over 6 years. Subtract out the $29.23M annual conference share that leaves a total 350M per year for the 12 teams in the B12 or basically $2.1B total for all 12 schools over 6 years.

Since we are dealing with an even number of years instead of an odd number of years, I will assume the average is reached in both years 3 and 4 though we all know it won't be that exactly - but for simplicity's sake that is how I will put it down.

Year 1 - 2025-26 - $26.23M per school average
Year 2 - 2026-27 - $27.23M per school average
Year 3 - 2027-28 - $29.23M per school average
Year 4 - 2028-29 - $29.23M per school average
Year 5 - 2029-30 - $30.73M per school average
Year 6 - 2030-31 - $32.23M per school average

Again, the above is ONLY media $$$ numbers. It doesn't include $$$ via football bowl games, CFP, or NCAA tourney monies.

We have Pete Thamel saying Tier 3 rights were included per ESPN but so far I believe he is the only one I have seen reporting this. FOX isn't involved in Big12NOW since it's on ESPN+ owned by Disney I suppose it is possible that separate agreement was done at the same time. Whether or not the $2.28B included this or not is still not known.

So random asian guy and/or SouthernConfBoy if either of you have the data (or projected data) for what the 14 full-time football schools received from media money and ACCN dollars so we might have a credible way to project the 14 football schools media monies for that same 6 year period we might be able to compare apples to apples.

Understand if a "best guess" is required.

Just a thought.

Cheers,
Neil

I just gave that table of numbers to you.

oing foward I get the following:

FY Total Per School Slightly Rounded
22 393 28M
23 411 29M
24 430 31M
25 449 32 M
26 470 33.5 M
27 490 35 M
28 513 36.6 M
29 536 38.2 M
30 560 40 M
31 585 41.8 M
So for the 2030 football season that's $ 585 shown at June 30, 2031.

All the other distributions run about $12 million a year so add that to the TV total so that's [i][b]$40 M (this year) to $54 M by 2030.
No increase in football playoff or recapture of NCAA basketball tourney shown. No added schools. No big negotiated ratchet.[/b][/i]
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2022 10:55 PM by SouthernConfBoy.)
10-30-2022 10:53 PM
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SouthernConfBoy Offline
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Post: #47
RE: The BigXII new deal
In FY 26 (2025 football season) our media is about 35.5 per school, their media is 26. Going forward:

FY 27 - 35 vs. 27
FY 28 - 36.6 vs. 29
FY 29 - 38.2 vs. 29
FY 30 - 40 vs. 31
FY 31 - 42 vs. 32

That's the B12 with 12 schools, but without Texas and OU, running at about 80% of ACC media money. That's not bad at all and it's a windfall for BYU, UCF, Cincy, and Houston. Given that Texas and OU held 40-50% of the value of the current contract, it's a damn fine job.

A B12 school will be able to make about $8-10 more a year in the ACC in revenue, but due to distance and travel only West Va, Cincy, and UCF could realize a real net increase in revenue because of physical proximity.

The revenue in the TV contract is just one of the P8/10/12 problems. The bigger problem is demographic and cultural. The culture of the B12 will be supporting football after the West Coast slides off into the Pacific Ocean.
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2022 11:17 PM by SouthernConfBoy.)
10-30-2022 11:12 PM
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OrangeDude Offline
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Post: #48
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-30-2022 10:53 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 10:19 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 06:20 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 12:40 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Let's compare it with the ACC money.

The ACC television revenue was $397.4 M for 2020-2021 including ND
Without ND, it would have been $370.91M. The ACC TV money increases at 4.1 percent per year (the ACCN revenue increases faster but let's try to be conservative).

2020-2021 $370.91
2021-2022 $386.23
2022-2023 $402.19
2023-2024 $418.81
2024-2025 $436.12
2025-2026 $454.14
2026-2027 $472.91
2027-2028 $492.45
2028-2029 $512.80
2029-2030 $533.99
2030-2031 $556.05
Six Year Average 2526-30/31 $503.72
Average Payout per team $35.98

The B12 money doesn't include Tier 3 but the ACCN payout was not fully developed in 2020-2021. The inflation does help the B12 but the ACC team will get at least $5 million more than the B12 team.

My math is a little different.

One thing that I notice is that a lot of folks like to present numbers "on the come" meaning they present fiscal 2020 as if it were the calendar year 2020.

ACC numbers always have the football season at the start of a fiscal year s fiscal year 2020 is actually football season 2019.

I have FY 19,20, and 21 tv at $288 M, $322 M, and $373 M for the 14 ACC members while that last year number in total was $413 M (this includes the full ND share).

Going foward I get the following:

FY Total Per School Slightly Rounded
22 393 28M
23 411 29M
24 430 31M
25 449 32 M
26 470 33.5 M
27 490 35 M
28 513 36.6 M
29 536 38.2 M
30 560 40 M
31 585 41.8 M
So for the 2030 football season that's $ 585 shown at June 30, 2031.

All the other distributions run about $12 million a year so add that to the TV total so that's $40 M (this year) to $54 M by 2030. No increase in football playoff or recapture of NCAA basketball tourney shown. No added schools. No big negotiated ratchet.

I am going to take a different approach to this.

The overall deal is for 2.28B over six years beginning in 2025-26.

So, 2.28B divided by 6 years is an average of 380M per year.

Assuming there is no further expansion that pot of money is divided 13 ways - 12 institutions and the Conference Office which is an average of $29.23M over 6 years. Subtract out the $29.23M annual conference share that leaves a total 350M per year for the 12 teams in the B12 or basically $2.1B total for all 12 schools over 6 years.

Since we are dealing with an even number of years instead of an odd number of years, I will assume the average is reached in both years 3 and 4 though we all know it won't be that exactly - but for simplicity's sake that is how I will put it down.

Year 1 - 2025-26 - $26.23M per school average
Year 2 - 2026-27 - $27.23M per school average
Year 3 - 2027-28 - $29.23M per school average
Year 4 - 2028-29 - $29.23M per school average
Year 5 - 2029-30 - $30.73M per school average
Year 6 - 2030-31 - $32.23M per school average

Again, the above is ONLY media $$$ numbers. It doesn't include $$$ via football bowl games, CFP, or NCAA tourney monies.

We have Pete Thamel saying Tier 3 rights were included per ESPN but so far I believe he is the only one I have seen reporting this. FOX isn't involved in Big12NOW since it's on ESPN+ owned by Disney I suppose it is possible that separate agreement was done at the same time. Whether or not the $2.28B included this or not is still not known.

So random asian guy and/or SouthernConfBoy if either of you have the data (or projected data) for what the 14 full-time football schools received from media money and ACCN dollars so we might have a credible way to project the 14 football schools media monies for that same 6 year period we might be able to compare apples to apples.

Understand if a "best guess" is required.

Just a thought.

Cheers,
Neil

I just gave that table of numbers to you.

oing foward I get the following:

FY Total Per School Slightly Rounded
22 393 28M
23 411 29M
24 430 31M
25 449 32 M
26 470 33.5 M
27 490 35 M
28 513 36.6 M
29 536 38.2 M
30 560 40 M
31 585 41.8 M
So for the 2030 football season that's $ 585 shown at June 30, 2031.

All the other distributions run about $12 million a year so add that to the TV total so that's [i][b]$40 M (this year) to $54 M by 2030.
No increase in football playoff or recapture of NCAA basketball tourney shown. No added schools. No big negotiated ratchet.[/b][/i]

I think what wasn't entirely clear to me was certain things that were not made clear (at least to me) regarding what was thrown out since it didn't pertain to the 14 football schools in the conference creating questions in my mind.

I couldn't find any reference to annual conference share which I understood to come out of the overall TV media rights monies - like other conferences - or perhaps the ACC does it differently so it wasn't necessary? Or did you account for that factor and I missed it?

Also while ND's share wouldn't include playing football in the ACC (outside of that one year) was the 10% or 15% or 20% share (whatever they get) of the regular OTA TV monies outside of football that ND would have received from the conference removed from the overall TV monies just like the Conference share (if that is how the conference gets their share)? Perhaps it was, but if it were mentioned I didn't catch it. Or again, perhaps it was assumed that we knew that was taken into account?

Lastly ND gets a full share of the ACCN - which I realize hasn't been a big deal in the years we have actually had ACCN monies but do the projected ACCN revenue in the future (now that it is picking up steam) take into account removing ND's 1/16th share there?

Sorry if this doesn't make sense, it is late at night. And I admit I can be an old curmudgeon when it becomes to detail. I do, however, thank both you and random asian guy for attempting to get us the projected data.

Cheers,
Neil
10-30-2022 11:27 PM
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knightmite Offline
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Post: #49
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-30-2022 10:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 09:43 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 02:08 PM)esayem Wrote:  lol gotta love new Big XII fans coming over to rub our noses in their inferior deal.

They did get a few more million than I expected, so good for them.

It's a solid, stabilizing move for a conference that recently endured (yet another) near-death experience. The celebratizing is understandable.

Being B12 fans with Willy Loman wearing a plaid jacket in their front office, they'll let the pocket money go to their heads and talk empire. What they have is, as always, a conference.

Given recent events, though, that's something. Morale in the B12 has improved without Texas around, and that's good to see.

Which version of itself is the present reality in the ACC? 1960's version death of tobacco? 1970's version which began to cement its hoops image? 1990's which thought it could subsidize hoops with football? I'd say Willy isn't exactly apt to only the Big 12. In fact, he may resonate with all Americans yearning for the 20th century.

Or maybe as Arthur Miller realized, as we each survey the sum of our accomplishments, failures, and missed opportunities we choose an amalgamation which justifies the sum of our existence.

Perhaps he suggests that reality occurs on multiple levels depending upon one's point of view.

The propagation of pity and fear does find purchase in us all!

Or maybe Miller suggested that you have a good life insurance policy with a suicide clause and still have some money left over for nylon stockings for you wife.
10-31-2022 08:01 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #50
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-30-2022 08:25 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 01:42 PM)Maize Wrote:  It is a good day for the Big XII … I offer nothing but congrats to the remaining schools and the new incoming members especially Cincinnati, UCF and Houston

Thank you kind sir. No ill will toward the ACC. Many of us "GFivers" are ecstatic and thankful to get this kind of deal. Cincinnati has had to fight and claw for everything and a little more than two decades after leaving CUSA...well, here we are.

And I for one wish you well and hope you continue to bring that fighting spirit to your very own P5 conference message board. Godspeed.
10-31-2022 08:05 AM
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Post: #51
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-30-2022 10:19 PM)OrangeDude Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 06:20 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  
(10-30-2022 12:40 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  Let's compare it with the ACC money.

The ACC television revenue was $397.4 M for 2020-2021 including ND
Without ND, it would have been $370.91M. The ACC TV money increases at 4.1 percent per year (the ACCN revenue increases faster but let's try to be conservative).

2020-2021 $370.91
2021-2022 $386.23
2022-2023 $402.19
2023-2024 $418.81
2024-2025 $436.12
2025-2026 $454.14
2026-2027 $472.91
2027-2028 $492.45
2028-2029 $512.80
2029-2030 $533.99
2030-2031 $556.05
Six Year Average 2526-30/31 $503.72
Average Payout per team $35.98

The B12 money doesn't include Tier 3 but the ACCN payout was not fully developed in 2020-2021. The inflation does help the B12 but the ACC team will get at least $5 million more than the B12 team.

My math is a little different.

One thing that I notice is that a lot of folks like to present numbers "on the come" meaning they present fiscal 2020 as if it were the calendar year 2020.

ACC numbers always have the football season at the start of a fiscal year s fiscal year 2020 is actually football season 2019.

I have FY 19,20, and 21 tv at $288 M, $322 M, and $373 M for the 14 ACC members while that last year number in total was $413 M (this includes the full ND share).

Going foward I get the following:

FY Total Per School Slightly Rounded
22 393 28M
23 411 29M
24 430 31M
25 449 32 M
26 470 33.5 M
27 490 35 M
28 513 36.6 M
29 536 38.2 M
30 560 40 M
31 585 41.8 M
So for the 2030 football season that's $ 585 shown at June 30, 2031.

All the other distributions run about $12 million a year so add that to the TV total so that's $40 M (this year) to $54 M by 2030. No increase in football playoff or recapture of NCAA basketball tourney shown. No added schools. No big negotiated ratchet.

I am going to take a different approach to this.

The overall deal is for 2.28B over six years beginning in 2025-26.

So, 2.28B divided by 6 years is an average of 380M per year.

Assuming there is no further expansion that pot of money is divided 13 ways - 12 institutions and the Conference Office which is an average of $29.23M over 6 years. Subtract out the $29.23M annual conference share that leaves a total 350M per year for the 12 teams in the B12 or basically $2.1B total for all 12 schools over 6 years.

Since we are dealing with an even number of years instead of an odd number of years, I will assume the average is reached in both years 3 and 4 though we all know it won't be that exactly - but for simplicity's sake that is how I will put it down.

Year 1 - 2025-26 - $26.23M per school average
Year 2 - 2026-27 - $27.23M per school average
Year 3 - 2027-28 - $29.23M per school average
Year 4 - 2028-29 - $29.23M per school average
Year 5 - 2029-30 - $30.73M per school average
Year 6 - 2030-31 - $32.23M per school average

Again, the above is ONLY media $$$ numbers. It doesn't include $$$ via football bowl games, CFP, or NCAA tourney monies.

We have Pete Thamel saying Tier 3 rights were included per ESPN but so far I believe he is the only one I have seen reporting this. FOX isn't involved in Big12NOW since it's on ESPN+ owned by Disney I suppose it is possible that separate agreement was done at the same time. Whether or not the $2.28B included this or not is still not known.

So random asian guy and/or SouthernConfBoy if either of you have the data (or projected data) for what the 14 full-time football schools received from media money and ACCN dollars so we might have a credible way to project the 14 football schools media monies for that same 6 year period we might be able to compare apples to apples.

Understand if a "best guess" is required.

Just a thought.

Cheers,
Neil

Neil,

The breakdown of ACC historic payout can be found here:
https://richmond.com/sports/college/teel...dbfaf.html

For 2020-2021 year, the total was $578.3M, of which $397.4M was for TV.

Please note that the TV money has two components:

1) ESPN only TV money - this portion is not shared with the ND and annual increase is 4.1%
2) ACCN - this portion is shared with ND and there is no predetermined % increase.

You can have the breakdown data from HokieMark's blog.
https://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/2022/...venue.html

For 2020/2021, ND joined the ACC in full, meaning they got the full equal share. My starting point for 2020-2021 is $370.91, which is just $397.4 M * 14/15. I think if ND didn't join, the starting point for 2020-2021 would actually have been a little higher.

Another assumption I made is that the ACCN revenue would increase at 4.1%. While some posters believe that the ACCN would peak out soon, I think 4.1% estimate is very conservative. The ACC didn't have a full distribution right as of 2020-2021 year. Also, the comcast deal came later than 2020-2021 time period. And unlike the original ESPN contract, the ACCN is more inflation proof. As the inflation goes, the ESPN would keep increasing the fee, which would boost the payout for the ACCN.
10-31-2022 08:53 AM
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SouthernConfBoy Offline
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Post: #52
RE: The BigXII new deal
The ACCN is generating a lot more money than expected. It's going to run in the $8-10 range per school.

Trying to figure out ND's share is almost a fools errand. They get their ACCN share, and they get another $8-10 M.

It's not that relevant in a media deal paying $550, $600, $700 M a year total.

The "conference" share thing is another red herring. If you are given a lump of cash and Daddy bills you for his services or Daddy gives you a lump of cash and extracts a fee from your cash, you end up in the same place. When the league office takes in a dollar for itself - about 60% goes to actual operations, 40% goes to funds that are eventually plowed back into the schools.

This is a paternalistic set up akin to a Credit Union or a share based Building and Loan operation.
10-31-2022 08:59 AM
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SouthernConfBoy Offline
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Post: #53
RE: The BigXII new deal
Asian - on another thread I tried to tell a moron that if you wanted solid ACC information that Dave Teel was the official mouthpiece of the ACC and that the other news outlets were the Orlando Sentinel and the Charlotte O. Folks have been suckered in by low quality work appearing on WRAL in Raleigh that was executed by a third rank reporter.

Reporters are not fungible - it's like Future College Football - it's a great site, but if Amy writes an article, something in the article is ALWAYS wrong. What that something is changes from article to article but the common thread in the mistakes is a lack of experience.
10-31-2022 09:03 AM
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SouthernConfBoy Offline
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Post: #54
RE: The BigXII new deal
After some thought, I realize that the P12 was never going to make it a 4 conference world. It's too spatially isolated and has cultural issues. The B10 taking USC and UCLA was the killing stroke and now it is left to bleed.

By propping up a good B12, you allow the 4 corners and perhaps WSU and OSU to escape to the B12 when Washington finally gives up the ghost and goes to the B10.

The cultures that support college football are not equally spread across the US.
10-31-2022 09:07 AM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #55
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-31-2022 08:59 AM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  The ACCN is generating a lot more money than expected. It's going to run in the $8-10 range per school.

Trying to figure out ND's share is almost a fools errand. They get their ACCN share, and they get another $8-10 M.

It's not that relevant in a media deal paying $550, $600, $700 M a year total.

The "conference" share thing is another red herring. If you are given a lump of cash and Daddy bills you for his services or Daddy gives you a lump of cash and extracts a fee from your cash, you end up in the same place. When the league office takes in a dollar for itself - about 60% goes to actual operations, 40% goes to funds that are eventually plowed back into the schools.

This is a paternalistic set up akin to a Credit Union or a share based Building and Loan operation.

Those ND numbers are accurate. ND gets about $20 million a year (total) from the ACC media deals.

ND received $10.8 million for its partial membership in 2019.

"According to a report from The Athletic, Notre Dame received an equal share payout of $34.9 million from the ACC. The school shared its NBC television revenue among all ACC members when it joined for the 2020 football season in exchange for receiving a full payout.

The $34.9 million is an increase from the $10.8 million Notre Dame received from the ACC as a partial member in fiscal year 2019."

https://www.on3.com/teams/notre-dame-fig...ll-member/


The revenue from the ACC Network is also about $10 million a year per school (so says Hokie Mark in the article below). ND receives a full ACC share of this revenue.

https://www.cardiachill.com/2019/10/1/20...10m-school


(IF ND can get north of $50 million a year from the new NBC deal, the combined media revenue for ND would be around $70 million a year...P2 level)
(This post was last modified: 10-31-2022 09:17 AM by TerryD.)
10-31-2022 09:13 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #56
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-31-2022 09:07 AM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  After some thought, I realize that the P12 was never going to make it a 4 conference world. It's too spatially isolated and has cultural issues. The B10 taking USC and UCLA was the killing stroke and now it is left to bleed.

By propping up a good B12, you allow the 4 corners and perhaps WSU and OSU to escape to the B12 when Washington finally gives up the ghost and goes to the B10.

The cultures that support college football are not equally spread across the US.

I’ve been trying to tell people this for some time: people like Frank talk about the educated masses out in the Bay Area and point out people in West Virginia, Cincinnati, Stillwater, Lubbock and Waco are a bunch of rubes. The rubes are the ones who watch CFB— and many of them have money too. The guys out in Berkeley and Paulo Alto only watch it on an extremely casual basis. Due to extremely poor attendance, Stanford is offering free tickets to their last two home games
(This post was last modified: 10-31-2022 09:24 AM by CliftonAve.)
10-31-2022 09:23 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #57
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-31-2022 09:23 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-31-2022 09:07 AM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  After some thought, I realize that the P12 was never going to make it a 4 conference world. It's too spatially isolated and has cultural issues. The B10 taking USC and UCLA was the killing stroke and now it is left to bleed.

By propping up a good B12, you allow the 4 corners and perhaps WSU and OSU to escape to the B12 when Washington finally gives up the ghost and goes to the B10.

The cultures that support college football are not equally spread across the US.

I’ve been trying to tell people this for some time: people like Frank talk about the educated masses out in the Bay Area and point out people in West Virginia, Cincinnati, Stillwater, Lubbock and Waco are a bunch of rubes. The rubes are the ones who watch CFB— and many of them have money too. The guys out in Berkeley and Paulo Alto only watch it on an extremely casual basis. Due to extremely poor attendance, Stanford is offering free tickets to their last two home games

Yeah, it's obvious. That's why the Big 10 and SEC make the most money, they have the largest fanbases that actually watch football. Look at the Sun Belt blowing the future AAC out of the water.
10-31-2022 09:30 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #58
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-31-2022 09:30 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(10-31-2022 09:23 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(10-31-2022 09:07 AM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  After some thought, I realize that the P12 was never going to make it a 4 conference world. It's too spatially isolated and has cultural issues. The B10 taking USC and UCLA was the killing stroke and now it is left to bleed.

By propping up a good B12, you allow the 4 corners and perhaps WSU and OSU to escape to the B12 when Washington finally gives up the ghost and goes to the B10.

The cultures that support college football are not equally spread across the US.

I’ve been trying to tell people this for some time: people like Frank talk about the educated masses out in the Bay Area and point out people in West Virginia, Cincinnati, Stillwater, Lubbock and Waco are a bunch of rubes. The rubes are the ones who watch CFB— and many of them have money too. The guys out in Berkeley and Paulo Alto only watch it on an extremely casual basis. Due to extremely poor attendance, Stanford is offering free tickets to their last two home games

Yeah, it's obvious. That's why the Big 10 and SEC make the most money, they have the largest fanbases that actually watch football. Look at the Sun Belt blowing the future AAC out of the water.

Agree. ESPN isn’t going to add dollars to media deals because you are in the AAU. They care about who is watching on TV and streaming.
10-31-2022 09:37 AM
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random asian guy Offline
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Post: #59
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-31-2022 09:03 AM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  Asian - on another thread I tried to tell a moron that if you wanted solid ACC information that Dave Teel was the official mouthpiece of the ACC and that the other news outlets were the Orlando Sentinel and the Charlotte O. Folks have been suckered in by low quality work appearing on WRAL in Raleigh that was executed by a third rank reporter.

Reporters are not fungible - it's like Future College Football - it's a great site, but if Amy writes an article, something in the article is ALWAYS wrong. What that something is changes from article to article but the common thread in the mistakes is a lack of experience.

Yes. David Teel is a good source. I am a little tired of some B12 boosters on the main board claiming the B12 would get more money than the ACC.
10-31-2022 09:38 AM
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random asian guy Offline
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Post: #60
RE: The BigXII new deal
(10-31-2022 09:07 AM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  After some thought, I realize that the P12 was never going to make it a 4 conference world. It's too spatially isolated and has cultural issues. The B10 taking USC and UCLA was the killing stroke and now it is left to bleed.

By propping up a good B12, you allow the 4 corners and perhaps WSU and OSU to escape to the B12 when Washington finally gives up the ghost and goes to the B10.

The cultures that support college football are not equally spread across the US.

I have been saying this. The ACC should target some of Pac schools. I know they are not cultural fit and the travel will be bad but imagine UO, UW, Stanford, Cal, ASU,and Utah joins the B12. Then the B12 may indeed surpass the ACC.
10-31-2022 09:46 AM
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