(08-14-2022 08:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the B12 schools were wise not to rush to a lesser conference, the AAC, after TX and OU left.

Similarly, the PAC schools would be wise not to rush to the nB12 now. If more schools leave for the B1G, the nB12 will still be very happy to have them then.

Agreed. The 4 corner schools will ONLY look to leave if more than a couple programs find a home in the B1G. I dont think they leave before that.

(08-14-2022 08:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the B12 schools were wise not to rush to a lesser conference, the AAC, after TX and OU left.

Similarly, the PAC schools would be wise not to rush to the nB12 now. If more schools leave for the B1G, the nB12 will still be very happy to have them then.

That is delusional.

Not even the biggest PAC fanboy would equate leaving the Big 12 for the American to leaving the Pac for Big 12.

There are questions as to whether adding some of these PAC schools even adds value to the Big 12 if using their PAC valuations. Imo all PAC schools more valuable the less PAC they are, but there is risk for a few.

Pac schools may prefer to stay in PAC, just as Big 12 schools rather now stay in Big 12 over going to PAC, but they’ll do so at their own peril. The P5 era is dead- consolidation will occur at some point- and it won’t be schools going to PAC.

(08-14-2022 09:51 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 08:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the B12 schools were wise not to rush to a lesser conference, the AAC, after TX and OU left.

Similarly, the PAC schools would be wise not to rush to the nB12 now. If more schools leave for the B1G, the nB12 will still be very happy to have them then.

That is delusional.

Not even the biggest PAC fanboy would equate leaving the Big 12 for the American to leaving the Pac for Big 12.

There are questions as to whether adding some of these PAC schools even adds value to the Big 12 if using their PAC valuations. Imo all PAC schools more valuable the less PAC they are, but there is risk for a few.

Pac schools may prefer to stay in PAC, just as Big 12 schools rather now stay in Big 12 over going to PAC, but they’ll do so at their own peril. The P5 era is dead- consolidation will occur at some point- and it won’t be schools going to PAC.

If they stay together, they should add SD State +1 so they can build on those 2 brands. Insurance for the future.

(08-14-2022 09:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 09:51 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 08:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the B12 schools were wise not to rush to a lesser conference, the AAC, after TX and OU left.

Similarly, the PAC schools would be wise not to rush to the nB12 now. If more schools leave for the B1G, the nB12 will still be very happy to have them then.

That is delusional.

Not even the biggest PAC fanboy would equate leaving the Big 12 for the American to leaving the Pac for Big 12.

There are questions as to whether adding some of these PAC schools even adds value to the Big 12 if using their PAC valuations. Imo all PAC schools more valuable the less PAC they are, but there is risk for a few.

Pac schools may prefer to stay in PAC, just as Big 12 schools rather now stay in Big 12 over going to PAC, but they’ll do so at their own peril. The P5 era is dead- consolidation will occur at some point- and it won’t be schools going to PAC.

If they stay together, they should add SD State +1 so they can build on those 2 brands. Insurance for the future.

Insurance is not going to keep the pac 10 from breaking up when the Big comes calling. It will just further dilute their revenue.

(08-14-2022 10:05 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 09:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 09:51 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 08:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the B12 schools were wise not to rush to a lesser conference, the AAC, after TX and OU left.

Similarly, the PAC schools would be wise not to rush to the nB12 now. If more schools leave for the B1G, the nB12 will still be very happy to have them then.

That is delusional.

Not even the biggest PAC fanboy would equate leaving the Big 12 for the American to leaving the Pac for Big 12.

There are questions as to whether adding some of these PAC schools even adds value to the Big 12 if using their PAC valuations. Imo all PAC schools more valuable the less PAC they are, but there is risk for a few.

Pac schools may prefer to stay in PAC, just as Big 12 schools rather now stay in Big 12 over going to PAC, but they’ll do so at their own peril. The P5 era is dead- consolidation will occur at some point- and it won’t be schools going to PAC.

If they stay together, they should add SD State +1 so they can build on those 2 brands. Insurance for the future.

Insurance is not going to keep the pac 10 from breaking up when the Big comes calling. It will just further dilute their revenue.

What would be the B1G's rush.
No school that had any hopes of moving to the B1G would sign a lengthy GOR. Any PAC schools would be sitting there to be plucked any time the B1G was ready.

(08-14-2022 06:33 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 01:45 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  ... movement, but it might take a lot longer than we've been speculating.

Or it may happen this Tuesday.

Lets go Brandon...

...another factor for the 4C schools MAY be the 'rumor' that the PAC media deal will be of the 'unequal shares' variety, with UO and UW garnering more than other programs - if THAT is true, the 4C schools are said to be at the 'bottom' of that ladder, getting only around 17 million a year? (different sources have been throwing this out there, so can't remember the numbers - sorry - but this is considering the 'current deal on the table' for ESPN from the initial round of media proposals for the PAC rights a few months back) - but if it's any type of 'non-equal shares' setup, I figure that would make the decision to bolt pretty easy for the 4C, depending upon the BIG XII deal, which would seem to be considerably more...

(08-14-2022 10:50 AM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...another factor for the 4C schools MAY be the 'rumor' that the PAC media deal will be of the 'unequal shares' variety, with UO and UW garnering more than other programs - if THAT is true, the 4C schools are said to be at the 'bottom' of that ladder, getting only around 17 million a year? (different sources have been throwing this out there, so can't remember the numbers - sorry) - but if it's any type of 'non-equal shares' setup, I figure that would make the decision to bolt pretty easy for the 4C, depending upon the BIG XII deal, which would seem to be considerably more...

The latest rumor is that media money will not be involved in unequal sharing. The additional money from all post season play would be more heavily weighted towards the schools that earned it. That way every school has a shot at more money but UW and Oregon would be favored to earn it.

(08-14-2022 10:57 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:50 AM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...another factor for the 4C schools MAY be the 'rumor' that the PAC media deal will be of the 'unequal shares' variety, with UO and UW garnering more than other programs - if THAT is true, the 4C schools are said to be at the 'bottom' of that ladder, getting only around 17 million a year? (different sources have been throwing this out there, so can't remember the numbers - sorry) - but if it's any type of 'non-equal shares' setup, I figure that would make the decision to bolt pretty easy for the 4C, depending upon the BIG XII deal, which would seem to be considerably more...

The latest rumor is that media money will not be involved in unequal sharing. The additional money from all post season play would be more heavily weighted towards the schools that earned it. That way every school has a shot at more money but UW and Oregon would be favored to earn it.

Got it - that would make more sense - if a school earns extra $$$$ for performance, they should get to keep the lion's share of it...

(08-14-2022 10:57 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:50 AM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...another factor for the 4C schools MAY be the 'rumor' that the PAC media deal will be of the 'unequal shares' variety, with UO and UW garnering more than other programs - if THAT is true, the 4C schools are said to be at the 'bottom' of that ladder, getting only around 17 million a year? (different sources have been throwing this out there, so can't remember the numbers - sorry) - but if it's any type of 'non-equal shares' setup, I figure that would make the decision to bolt pretty easy for the 4C, depending upon the BIG XII deal, which would seem to be considerably more...

The latest rumor is that media money will not be involved in unequal sharing. The additional money from all post season play would be more heavily weighted towards the schools that earned it. That way every school has a shot at more money but UW and Oregon would be favored to earn it.

This was from a mail bag suggestion rather than rumored discussion, iirc.

Afaik most (all?) conferences have some sort of merit based pay for post season payout, like to program gets to keep 50% and the remaining split amongst conference mates.

(08-14-2022 10:57 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:50 AM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...another factor for the 4C schools MAY be the 'rumor' that the PAC media deal will be of the 'unequal shares' variety, with UO and UW garnering more than other programs - if THAT is true, the 4C schools are said to be at the 'bottom' of that ladder, getting only around 17 million a year? (different sources have been throwing this out there, so can't remember the numbers - sorry) - but if it's any type of 'non-equal shares' setup, I figure that would make the decision to bolt pretty easy for the 4C, depending upon the BIG XII deal, which would seem to be considerably more...

The latest rumor is that media money will not be involved in unequal sharing. The additional money from all post season play would be more heavily weighted towards the schools that earned it. That way every school has a shot at more money but UW and Oregon would be favored to earn it.

Right because their is the media deal and then the FB/BB revenues which are substantial.

With a tilted cut of the pie there is no way UW/UO move to the XII.

Does it make the case for PAC expansion more compelling? If they bring in UNLV at a half share and they finish at the bottom in FB/BB they aren't costing anything.

Add SDSU/BSU/Zaga and roll.

Still, UO and UW at 50% shares has to be something they'd take if the B1G put that on the table. Maybe even 66% shares is possible.

(08-14-2022 12:00 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:57 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:50 AM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...another factor for the 4C schools MAY be the 'rumor' that the PAC media deal will be of the 'unequal shares' variety, with UO and UW garnering more than other programs - if THAT is true, the 4C schools are said to be at the 'bottom' of that ladder, getting only around 17 million a year? (different sources have been throwing this out there, so can't remember the numbers - sorry) - but if it's any type of 'non-equal shares' setup, I figure that would make the decision to bolt pretty easy for the 4C, depending upon the BIG XII deal, which would seem to be considerably more...

The latest rumor is that media money will not be involved in unequal sharing. The additional money from all post season play would be more heavily weighted towards the schools that earned it. That way every school has a shot at more money but UW and Oregon would be favored to earn it.

Right because their is the media deal and then the FB/BB revenues which are substantial.

With a tilted cut of the pie there is no way UW/UO move to the XII.

Does it make the case for PAC expansion more compelling? If they bring in UNLV at a half share and they finish at the bottom in FB/BB they aren't costing anything.

Yeah but here is the problem:

1. No increased cut will be able to offset what the B1G and SEC can offer. If Oregon and Washington want out, and those conferences want to add them, then there is nothing that can be offered to keep them in the PAC.

2. Any increased cut to Oregon and Washington will result in a decreased payout to the 4C schools. If they are currently comparing revenue in an expanded Big 16 vs. a revenue cut in the PAC, it may enhance the value of a move to the Big 12 rather than staying in the PAC.

3. If any of those schools leave, the rest will follow. If they wait to leave, then there is no guarantee that the offer will remain open to all of them. Utah and one of the Arizonas could theoretically be on the outside looking in.

4. If the only value of staying in the PAC is playing Oregon and Washington then a move by the 4C schools would trigger a decision by Oregon and Washington anyways. They would have no choice but to follow the 4C schools if the B1G and SEC are uninterested. Frankly, I like this result if I’m a 4C school. Because I hate the idea of waiting around just to play Oregon and Washington’s game until they inevitably decide to do whatever they are going to do. No need to be led around by the nose by a set of programs that would leave you in a heartbeat if they are able.

(08-14-2022 01:28 PM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 12:00 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:57 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:50 AM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...another factor for the 4C schools MAY be the 'rumor' that the PAC media deal will be of the 'unequal shares' variety, with UO and UW garnering more than other programs - if THAT is true, the 4C schools are said to be at the 'bottom' of that ladder, getting only around 17 million a year? (different sources have been throwing this out there, so can't remember the numbers - sorry) - but if it's any type of 'non-equal shares' setup, I figure that would make the decision to bolt pretty easy for the 4C, depending upon the BIG XII deal, which would seem to be considerably more...

The latest rumor is that media money will not be involved in unequal sharing. The additional money from all post season play would be more heavily weighted towards the schools that earned it. That way every school has a shot at more money but UW and Oregon would be favored to earn it.

Right because their is the media deal and then the FB/BB revenues which are substantial.

With a tilted cut of the pie there is no way UW/UO move to the XII.

Does it make the case for PAC expansion more compelling? If they bring in UNLV at a half share and they finish at the bottom in FB/BB they aren't costing anything.

Yeah but here is the problem:

1. No increased cut will be able to offset what the B1G and SEC can offer. If Oregon and Washington want out, and those conferences want to add them, then there is nothing that can be offered to keep them in the PAC.

2. Any increased cut to Oregon and Washington will result in a decreased payout to the 4C schools. If they are currently comparing revenue in an expanded Big 16 vs. a revenue cut in the PAC, it may enhance the value of a move to the Big 12 rather than staying in the PAC.

3. If any of those schools leave, the rest will follow. If they wait to leave, then there is no guarantee that the offer will remain open to all of them. Utah and one of the Arizonas could theoretically be on the outside looking in.

4. If the only value of staying in the PAC is playing Oregon and Washington then a move by the 4C schools would trigger a decision by Oregon and Washington anyways. They would have no choice but to follow the 4C schools if the B1G and SEC are uninterested. Frankly, I like this result if I’m a 4C school. Because I hate the idea of waiting around just to play Oregon and Washington’s game until they inevitably decide to do whatever they are going to do. No need to be led around by the nose by a set of programs that would leave you in a heartbeat if they are able.

This post is on target. My hunch is that Arizona and CU are very close to finalizing plans for a move to the Big 12.

(08-14-2022 11:01 AM)Huan Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:57 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:50 AM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...another factor for the 4C schools MAY be the 'rumor' that the PAC media deal will be of the 'unequal shares' variety, with UO and UW garnering more than other programs - if THAT is true, the 4C schools are said to be at the 'bottom' of that ladder, getting only around 17 million a year? (different sources have been throwing this out there, so can't remember the numbers - sorry) - but if it's any type of 'non-equal shares' setup, I figure that would make the decision to bolt pretty easy for the 4C, depending upon the BIG XII deal, which would seem to be considerably more...

The latest rumor is that media money will not be involved in unequal sharing. The additional money from all post season play would be more heavily weighted towards the schools that earned it. That way every school has a shot at more money but UW and Oregon would be favored to earn it.

This was from a mail bag suggestion rather than rumored discussion, iirc.

Afaik most (all?) conferences have some sort of merit based pay for post season payout, like to program gets to keep 50% and the remaining split amongst conference mates.

No. Lots of conferences do a nominal share to the school to cover expenses, but share most of the revenue. Some do disproportionate shares. Most of the ones I have heard of (a small sample) are relatively equal with both basketball and bowl revenue.

(08-14-2022 01:28 PM)Sicembear11 Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 12:00 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:57 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:50 AM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  ...another factor for the 4C schools MAY be the 'rumor' that the PAC media deal will be of the 'unequal shares' variety, with UO and UW garnering more than other programs - if THAT is true, the 4C schools are said to be at the 'bottom' of that ladder, getting only around 17 million a year? (different sources have been throwing this out there, so can't remember the numbers - sorry) - but if it's any type of 'non-equal shares' setup, I figure that would make the decision to bolt pretty easy for the 4C, depending upon the BIG XII deal, which would seem to be considerably more...

The latest rumor is that media money will not be involved in unequal sharing. The additional money from all post season play would be more heavily weighted towards the schools that earned it. That way every school has a shot at more money but UW and Oregon would be favored to earn it.

Right because their is the media deal and then the FB/BB revenues which are substantial.

With a tilted cut of the pie there is no way UW/UO move to the XII.

Does it make the case for PAC expansion more compelling? If they bring in UNLV at a half share and they finish at the bottom in FB/BB they aren't costing anything.

Yeah but here is the problem:

1. No increased cut will be able to offset what the B1G and SEC can offer. If Oregon and Washington want out, and those conferences want to add them, then there is nothing that can be offered to keep them in the PAC.

2. Any increased cut to Oregon and Washington will result in a decreased payout to the 4C schools. If they are currently comparing revenue in an expanded Big 16 vs. a revenue cut in the PAC, it may enhance the value of a move to the Big 12 rather than staying in the PAC.

3. If any of those schools leave, the rest will follow. If they wait to leave, then there is no guarantee that the offer will remain open to all of them. Utah and one of the Arizonas could theoretically be on the outside looking in.

4. If the only value of staying in the PAC is playing Oregon and Washington then a move by the 4C schools would trigger a decision by Oregon and Washington anyways. They would have no choice but to follow the 4C schools if the B1G and SEC are uninterested. Frankly, I like this result if I’m a 4C school. Because I hate the idea of waiting around just to play Oregon and Washington’s game until they inevitably decide to do whatever they are going to do. No need to be led around by the nose by a set of programs that would leave you in a heartbeat if they are able.

Yes

(08-14-2022 10:05 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 09:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 09:51 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 08:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the B12 schools were wise not to rush to a lesser conference, the AAC, after TX and OU left.

Similarly, the PAC schools would be wise not to rush to the nB12 now. If more schools leave for the B1G, the nB12 will still be very happy to have them then.

That is delusional.

Not even the biggest PAC fanboy would equate leaving the Big 12 for the American to leaving the Pac for Big 12.

There are questions as to whether adding some of these PAC schools even adds value to the Big 12 if using their PAC valuations. Imo all PAC schools more valuable the less PAC they are, but there is risk for a few.

Pac schools may prefer to stay in PAC, just as Big 12 schools rather now stay in Big 12 over going to PAC, but they’ll do so at their own peril. The P5 era is dead- consolidation will occur at some point- and it won’t be schools going to PAC.

If they stay together, they should add SD State +1 so they can build on those 2 brands. Insurance for the future.

Insurance is not going to keep the pac 10 from breaking up when the Big comes calling. It will just further dilute their revenue.

agree on that, but there is safety in #s for those left behind. As for diluting revenue, that does not have to be the case for current schools, give incoming schools 1/2 or 2/3 shares depending on what TV wants to do. even at 12 mil for newbies it is a big raise over MWC.

(08-14-2022 02:40 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 10:05 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 09:58 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 09:51 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 08:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the B12 schools were wise not to rush to a lesser conference, the AAC, after TX and OU left.

Similarly, the PAC schools would be wise not to rush to the nB12 now. If more schools leave for the B1G, the nB12 will still be very happy to have them then.

That is delusional.

Not even the biggest PAC fanboy would equate leaving the Big 12 for the American to leaving the Pac for Big 12.

There are questions as to whether adding some of these PAC schools even adds value to the Big 12 if using their PAC valuations. Imo all PAC schools more valuable the less PAC they are, but there is risk for a few.

Pac schools may prefer to stay in PAC, just as Big 12 schools rather now stay in Big 12 over going to PAC, but they’ll do so at their own peril. The P5 era is dead- consolidation will occur at some point- and it won’t be schools going to PAC.

If they stay together, they should add SD State +1 so they can build on those 2 brands. Insurance for the future.

Insurance is not going to keep the pac 10 from breaking up when the Big comes calling. It will just further dilute their revenue.

agree on that, but there is safety in #s for those left behind. As for diluting revenue, that does not have to be the case for current schools, give incoming schools 1/2 or 2/3 shares depending on what TV wants to do. even at 12 mil for newbies it is a big raise over MWC.

But other than SDSU, its hard to think of anyone who isn't dilutive for the Pac.
Maybe Boise would be only mildly dilutive, but I can't imagine them taking Boise.

And 8 of the 10 would probably be accepted by the Big 12 (assuming they stay at 12), so its only Oregon St. and Washington St. that have big concerns.

I think the real issue is that the Big 10 and SEC both have 16 and have financial advantages. So a 10 team conference has significantly less power. That was one of the stated reasons for the Big 12 to go to 12 instead of stopping at 10. There's good reasons for consolidation among the remaining 3 of the A5.

(08-14-2022 09:51 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 08:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the B12 schools were wise not to rush to a lesser conference, the AAC, after TX and OU left.

Similarly, the PAC schools would be wise not to rush to the nB12 now. If more schools leave for the B1G, the nB12 will still be very happy to have them then.

That is delusional.

Not even the biggest PAC fanboy would equate leaving the Big 12 for the American to leaving the Pac for Big 12.

There are questions as to whether adding some of these PAC schools even adds value to the Big 12 if using their PAC valuations. Imo all PAC schools more valuable the less PAC they are, but there is risk for a few.

Pac schools may prefer to stay in PAC, just as Big 12 schools rather now stay in Big 12 over going to PAC, but they’ll do so at their own peril. The P5 era is dead- consolidation will occur at some point- and it won’t be schools going to PAC.

Eh, while the nB12 is clearly better and more valuable than the AAC was last year, to me the situations are similar, in that one thing they have in common is that IMO it doesn't make sense for nPAC schools to leave for the nB12 right now, just like it didn't make sense for nB12 schools to leave for the AAC last year.

And about PAC valuations - I don't doubt that some nPAC schools, say Oregon State and Washington State - are not valuable enough for the nB12 to add. But so? They aren't in a position to decide, because for that very reason, it is unlikely that the nB12 would take them.

What the situation boils down to are the schools that are valuable enough for the nB12 to want them - and that's basically all the schools save the two I mentioned. And I think that remains true even if say a couple more of them go to the B1G. I think the nB12 would love to have Arizona State and Colorado right now, and they will still love to have them if Stanford and Oregon leave for the B1G. So IMO, no risk there for them. They can join the nB12 any time they like, as can Cal, Oregon, Arizona, etc.

So to me the nPAC schools have zero reason to move to the nB12 right now. Not in the least, IMO.

(08-14-2022 04:24 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 09:51 AM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(08-14-2022 08:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the B12 schools were wise not to rush to a lesser conference, the AAC, after TX and OU left.

Similarly, the PAC schools would be wise not to rush to the nB12 now. If more schools leave for the B1G, the nB12 will still be very happy to have them then.

That is delusional.

Not even the biggest PAC fanboy would equate leaving the Big 12 for the American to leaving the Pac for Big 12.

There are questions as to whether adding some of these PAC schools even adds value to the Big 12 if using their PAC valuations. Imo all PAC schools more valuable the less PAC they are, but there is risk for a few.

Pac schools may prefer to stay in PAC, just as Big 12 schools rather now stay in Big 12 over going to PAC, but they’ll do so at their own peril. The P5 era is dead- consolidation will occur at some point- and it won’t be schools going to PAC.

Eh, while the nB12 is clearly better and more valuable than the AAC was last year, to me the situations are similar, in that one thing they have in common is that IMO it doesn't make sense for nPAC schools to leave for the nB12 right now, just like it didn't make sense for nB12 schools to leave for the AAC last year.

And about PAC valuations - I don't doubt that some nPAC schools, say Oregon State and Washington State - are not valuable enough for the nB12 to add. But so? They aren't in a position to decide, because for that very reason, it is unlikely that the nB12 would take them.

What the situation boils down to are the schools that are valuable enough for the nB12 to want them - and that's basically all the schools save the two I mentioned. And I think that remains true even if say a couple more of them go to the B1G. I think the nB12 would love to have Arizona State and Colorado right now, and they will still love to have them if Stanford and Oregon leave for the B1G. So IMO, no risk there for them. They can join the nB12 any time they like, as can Cal, Oregon, Arizona, etc.

So to me the nPAC schools have zero reason to move to the nB12 right now. Not in the least, IMO.

This is where we differ. I don’t believe for one second that Utah and a second Arizona are needed for maximize revenue for the Big 12. At the moment those 4C are the most at risk with the best possibility of moving, so they get targeted. But if the Big 12 says in a year, we are only taking two, what do you do? It make sense now because you can afford to take slight revenue hits in exchange for killing a structural competitor and greasing the rails for movement to happen. This is the leverage that the 4C schools have RIGHT NOW. They have this leverage not because they are equally valuable and additive, but instead because they have to make a choice. If they all want to come on board, then that is the option they get to make RIGHT NOW.

If they wait until other teams from the PAC are already gone to the B1G? Then they no longer have a choice to remain in the PAC versus moving to the Big 12. However, their leverage is considerably reduced if they wait for that moment. The Big 12 can easily say, “we already have the SLC/Utah market covered by BYU” or we only need one Arizona team. They could say, “you know, SDSU does give us direct access to SoCal markets” or “CAL and the Bay Area more lucrative for us, or even a team in Oregon/Washington would be better than doubling up in UT/AZ.”

Who is to say? The point is, making a decision to stay in the PAC on the assumption that a Big 12 invite will always be available is a bad one. This is because there is no such guarantee. Colorado could probably play this game, but they are the only ones that can solely because they don’t have another comparable instate competitor.